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Big Lance @ Kona 2011

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Joey_J

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Lance was the US Pro Triathlon national champ when he was 18 in 89’ and again in 90’. By definition he was/is proficient in swimming, running and of course cycling. In Kona, a mediocre swim is still 55 min. He loses 5 mins but makes that up on the bike. He runs a 3 hr marathon and is in the mix for the win. If you look at the splits from this year, a “motivated” LA would be right there.
 
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Joey_J said:
Lance was the US Pro Triathlon national champ when he was 18 in 89’ and again in 90’.

Actually he was "Sprint" distance champion. The short distance has a 500 m swim and was usually for first timers and guys that couldn't swim. The sprint distance was a marginal event in a marginal sport.
 
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Roadhouse said:


and now i stand corrected, he is gonna dominate the bike course record by over fifteen minutes, more like twenty, and no one will catch him. Big Lance is gonna win Kona his first time out.


It will take an average speed of 28mph for 4 hours to break the current Kona course record held by Norman Stadler who has won twice on the strength of his bike leg. So all Lance needs is a 1hr swim (possible) a 4hr bike (questionable) and a 3hr marathon (unlikely) and will beat the course record of 8:04 by 4 minutes.

I think 9:30 give or take 15 minutes
1 to 1:15 for the swim
4:40 to4:50 on the bike
3:20 to 3:40 for the marathon
 

Roadhouse

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I meant bike course record, actually. 1:00:00 to 1:05:00 swim, sub 4 hour bike ride and well sub 4 hour as in 3:50:00 and the rest is history. under 2:50:00 run, easy. he can hold 30 average for Kona. it's not a mountain, just an island.
 
Roadhouse said:
I meant bike course record, actually. 1:00:00 to 1:05:00 swim, sub 4 hour bike ride and well sub 4 hour as in 3:50:00 and the rest is history. under 2:50:00 run, easy. he can hold 30 average for Kona. it's not a mountain, just an island.

Under 2:50 run 'easy' at Kona?..review what his marathon times were when he did just that and on much cooler days...

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Seven-times Tour de France champion Lance Armstrong reached his New York City Marathon goal on Sunday, by breaking two hours, 50 minutes in his second race over the distance.

Sports

Armstrong, who retired from cycling after his 2005 Tour victory, ran 2:46:43, nearly 13 minutes faster than his marathon debut here last year of 2:59:36."

Sub 4 hour bike 'easy'?..not really. Windy, hot, after a swim and remember he's still gotta run a marathon. More than a few have done great on the bike then blew up on the run..Pros 15 years younger than LA, who train for nothing else but Kona...

I put him about 9.5 hours, if he finishes.
 

Roadhouse

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Bustedknuckle said:
Under 2:50 run 'easy' at Kona?..review what his marathon times were when he did just that and on much cooler days...

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Seven-times Tour de France champion Lance Armstrong reached his New York City Marathon goal on Sunday, by breaking two hours, 50 minutes in his second race over the distance.

Sports

Armstrong, who retired from cycling after his 2005 Tour victory, ran 2:46:43, nearly 13 minutes faster than his marathon debut here last year of 2:59:36."

Sub 4 hour bike 'easy'?..not really. Windy, hot, after a swim and remember he's still gotta run a marathon. More than a few have done great on the bike then blew up on the run..Pros 15 years younger than LA, who train for nothing else but Kona...

I put him about 9.5 hours, if he finishes.

that's their mistake, now isn't it? did you not comprehend what you just wrote? he got faster on the marathon the second time out and if you watch that vid, it's core temp that they are attemtping to control in Kona so hot won't play a factor come a year from now. he'll have it down pact.

no triathlete is as good as one Big Lance. heck the top ten put together are only half as strong. he's gonna dominate.
 

Roadhouse

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and i don't get how twenty plus years training on a bike puts that kind of overall earned strength anywhere near the likes of 'pro's 15 years younger'. they are 15 years less experienced, fifteen years less trained, fifteen years weaker.

"They should be careful what they wish for, they just might get it."

Hey Kona 2011, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gSb2A4mXtg
 
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Roadhouse said:
I meant bike course record, actually. 1:00:00 to 1:05:00 swim, sub 4 hour bike ride and well sub 4 hour as in 3:50:00 and the rest is history. under 2:50:00 run, easy. he can hold 30 average for Kona. it's not a mountain, just an island.

Apparently you have never being there, Sub 4 hours on the bike not a chance. The weather is to variable with cross winds that can just to 60mph with a sustained speed of 25mph+. Combine this with a course he is sharing with 1600 other people.

Also, I am guessing you have never ran off the bike. Your normal best marathon means nothing.
 

Roadhouse

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Kona 2011, this is your final warning, pull out now and save some face or the wrath of Big Lance will be upon you forever more.

1 to 1:05:00 swim, break the bike course by well over twenty minutes, possibly thirty as he knows he's not the fastest runner so he'll pull far, far, light years even ahead on the bike where he knows without a doubt that he is the most dominating person on one in our lifetime, take a ten minute nap in t2, and close with a 2:45 marathon.

It's over. Kona who?
 
Bustedknuckle said:
As a non team sport w/o all the support that professional bike racing has I really doubt anybody could win 8 Kona Ironman races. I doubt he will win his 8th TdF. There are some young guns that will kick his **** in the next TdF. He will be average in the TTs and not be able to stay with the true climbers, like Contador. I doubt he will even make the podium. We'll see if he has the stone(s) to actually finish after he finds himself way down. I doubt he will.

I agree with your assesment of LA´s 2010 Tour, especially considering there will be no TTT. He´ll be lucky to make the top five, but I don´t think he´ll abandon regardless of his GC. It would be too negative for his PR to end as a quitter and then he ´d have to stop his favorite passtime as a Twitter.
 

Joey_J

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Sprint

Race Radio said:
Actually he was "Sprint" distance champion. The short distance has a 500 m swim and was usually for first timers and guys that couldn't swim. The sprint distance was a marginal event in a marginal sport.

Sprint is
750M swim
20K bike
5K run

and the Scotts, Allans and Tinleys did sprint as well. The Sprint distance spawned the Olympic distance and are the most popular distances in Triathlon.
 
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My prediction is Lance will take the lead on the bike, but will get a flat tire and spend 20 minutes waiting for his support car, which of course will not exist. Not knowing how to change a flat, he will then bravely ride a mile or two on a flat, but ultimately blame equipment failure for his DNF.
 
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Joey_J said:
Sprint is
750M swim
20K bike
5K run

and the Scotts, Allans and Tinleys did sprint as well. The Sprint distance spawned the Olympic distance and are the most popular distances in Triathlon.

the Scotts, Allans and Tinleys would only show up at a race in the late 80's if there was an appearance fee.

The "Olympic distance" was already around and was well established as the standard distance for Nationals and the Bud Light series. The Sprint stuff was for the guys who could TT and run.
 
zalan1 said:
Dear fello-cyclists, in my opinion he is capable of even winning it. I agree with this article: http://triathlonmagazine.eu/news/2-news/70-lance-armstrong-will-race-in-hawaii-2011 Be fast:Zalan

"The 2011 Ironman World Championships would be Armstrong's second attempt at the big race; he last competed in the Ironman Triathlon in 1991 after signing a sponsorship with Subaru-Montgomery."

From the article you linked...but I think if he'd ever completed or even tried an Ironman, it'd have been mentioned before now.
 

Carboncrank

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BroDeal said:
If so and he follows usual his methods then he will have his buddies enter so he can draft them in the swim. They will go at a leasurely pace. He will then do the bike leg and drop out of the race before the run. Fanboys everywhere will then fall all over themselves while mooning about a brilliant strategy.

still a troll i see.
 
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Roadhouse said:
that's their mistake, now isn't it? did you not comprehend what you just wrote? he got faster on the marathon the second time out and if you watch that vid, it's core temp that they are attemtping to control in Kona so hot won't play a factor come a year from now. he'll have it down pact.

no triathlete is as good as one Big Lance. heck the top ten put together are only half as strong. he's gonna dominate.

I have to seriously question the term "dominate", without more information on his current distant swimming ability the argument is without sufficient factual basis. His run time in the Boston Marathon is not the time he will be getting after swimming and cycling, the TT will be much more difficult as no TdF (or lead up) has such an extended course (and I do not see him focusing on Kona to the detriment of the TdF). Certainly, he should compete with his age group, and he might have the ability to put in a top finish but I just do not see him being able to "dominate".
 
I am a Lance fan, to me he is an exceptional human being let alone athlete - but as a triathlete who has raced Kona I find some of the comments here absolutely hilarious! I don't doubt for a minute that he could break the bike record and I don't see any argument about it being too hot for him as with his support team and training he will be ready for the environment. Psychologically of course he will complete the race, anyone that suggests he would DNF is kidding themselves, he's the most stubborn man in sport bar none! 2011 seems very, very soon though. To answer a question about qualifying for Kona, its generally accepted that anything sub 10 hours will get you in, though not everybody takes their spot so you can get in with a 10:30 if you hang around at the end of your qualifier. Who said he would get his mates to get involved so he could draft their swim!? Hahahaha, I am sure Lance is a big enough boy to draft one of the other hundreds of athletes who are swimming.

All in all I would love to see Lance in Kona, it'd boost the profile of the sport I love, I may even get out of the water before him so I could tuck in behind him for a split second on the bike!, but - really?- 2011 is a bit rich if he intends on racing the tour two more years....
 

Carboncrank

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i don't think anybody credible actually thinks lance can win this thing. i don't think he's even in it to win it.
i've been following the iron man pretty much from the start.
it's pretty much all about the marathon.
i do think he'll be embarrassed if he's not first off the bike but he's not a natural runner.
i think he'll be happy as long as he doesn't blow up on the marathon.
 
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hscoach2 said:
"The 2011 Ironman World Championships would be Armstrong's second attempt at the big race; he last competed in the Ironman Triathlon in 1991 after signing a sponsorship with Subaru-Montgomery."

From the article you linked...but I think if he'd ever completed or even tried an Ironman, it'd have been mentioned before now.

I was at Kona in 1991 (it was the first year both of my parents qualified for Kona BTW), LA was not there as a competitor.

http://ironman.com/assets/files/results/worldchampionship/1991.pdf

At the bottom of the pdf you will find an alphabetical list of competitors. No Armstrong. I hate when people who publish articles on-line cannot check their facts.
 

Roadhouse

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L29205 said:
I was at Kona in 1991 (it was the first year both of my parents qualified for Kona BTW), LA was not there as a competitor.

http://ironman.com/assets/files/results/worldchampionship/1991.pdf

At the bottom of the pdf you will find an alphabetical list of competitors. No Armstrong. I hate when people who publish articles on-line cannot check their facts.

it doesn't state anywhere in that article that it was Kona 1991, it says world triathlon championships. i'll try and hunt for a vid or proof.
 
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L29205 said:
I was at Kona in 1991 (it was the first year both of my parents qualified for Kona BTW), LA was not there as a competitor.

http://ironman.com/assets/files/results/worldchampionship/1991.pdf

At the bottom of the pdf you will find an alphabetical list of competitors. No Armstrong. I hate when people who publish articles on-line cannot check their facts.

He did AN Ironman. Not THE Ironman. There is an image of him running on the internet (at least it's supposed to be him... to me it doesn't look much like him) indicating that he was doing an ironman... but the scenery clearly isn't Hawaii.