British politics

[python]

Not sure if the british politicians are poor gamblers or the brits are good at exposing gamblers...

 

[King Boonen]

Imagine what Labour might have achieved if they hadn't been actively trying to sabotage their own leader for the past 2 years...

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Imagine what Labour might have achieved if they hadn't been actively trying to sabotage their own leader for the past 2 years...

It truly is a shame that the rest of the party is about as loyal as Corbyn was himself...

 

[SeriousSam]

Very different circumstances though.

At any rate, this result effectively cleanses the Labour party of any lingering Blairism

 

[Netserk]

So Sam, what did the market have as odds for a conservative majority?

 

[ferryman]

Re:

So Sam, what did the market have as odds for a conservative majority?

I checked just before the polling stations closed (so before the exit poll was announced) with my bookie and it was 1/6 for a majority...

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Very different circumstances though.

At any rate, this result effectively cleanses the Labour party of any lingering Blairism

Yes, even Chukka Umunna has said he'll accept a shadow cabinet position, a clear break from his previous position. I wonder how Hilary Benn, John Mann and Ben Bradshaw feel about this. The fact of the matter is that Momentum, although they are in times of non-election pretty annoying and sometimes far too aggressive and offensive, are really good for the party during elections and its campaigning so have to be kept motivated.

Not sure if the british politicians are poor gamblers or the brits are good at exposing gamblers...

Both, I think. The EU referendum was never a risk worth taking for Cameron, and he was way too arrogant and assumed victory, despite the polls showing a Leave lead until the last week. This one was a much more calculate gamble, but the British people found her, and the tabloids out. For 10 months she was put under no scrutiny whatsoever, partly because Corbyn isn't good at PMQs, partly because Labour were tearing themselves apart and partly because the most influential newspapers collectively decided she was the second coming. She was put under pressure for a month and a half, and she managed to blow a 25 point lead, and reduced it down to two. Helped by Labour's excellent campaign.

It's the youth vote (and turnout), stupid.
I'm especially happy for Piers Morgan, who predicted a 100+ seat majority for the Tories. Up yours.

Absolutely. Not only Piers Morgan, but Iain Dale, Dan Hodges, Matthew d'Ancona, Nick Cohen, Tim Shipman, Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch (who reportedly left the Sun's election night after seeing the exit poll). Worth noting that overall turnout was only 68%, only 2.5% up on last time, and if an increased turnout truly helps Labour, then there is still a long way to go. This election gave proof (if any was needed) that when young people vote, they can make a difference. Take Canterbury: it has been Conservative or Unionist since 1879. Not even Blair won it; yet Labour took it with a 20% vote increase, because young people turned out in droves.


Anyway, May doesn't resign, and strikes a deal with the DUP (well, not a deal, an alliance with some of the proper nasties of British politics) before telling her cabinet. Maybot is back. I imagine she did this because BoJo and Hammond would have kicked her out before she could do anything. But MPs are turning against her, and could ther be a vote of no confidence soon...? We will see. She has been forced, though, to confirm that the main five offices will remain unchanged: she had reportedly planned to move Rudd to Chancellor, Ben Gummer to Brexit, Davis to Foreign Office (maybe), BoJo to party chairman and Hammond far, far away. But Gummer lost his seat (closest thing we got to a Portillo moment), and she lost her majority so fat chance she'll get away with doing anything now.


Incidentally, while we are on the subject of Amber Rudd, she had an interesting moment last night. They counted the votes in Hastings and Rye, and she had lost. She she ordered a recount, but she still lost. So she asked for another one, but still lost. And another one, and this time they found 400 votes from the magic vote tree and she won. Similar stories happened throughout the country with Tories calling for recounts in close seats (like Kensington). But the Rudd story was impressive. Make of it what you will.

 

[Avoriaz]

The first meeting of the 1922 committee could be an nteresting one. Also, I was aware about Amber Rudd recounts, but not that she lost four times. Similar with Zac Goldsmith in Richmond - upset for Sarah Olney who barely had time to find her way around the PoW

 

[Brullnux]

@ferryman, how do you feel about the result? I imagine mixed: happy with UK result as a whole with the Tories creating chaos for themselves, but sad that most the Tory gains came in Scotland rather than England/Wales. Personally I was most upset by the loss of Angus Robertson - I've never warmed to Salmond at all but Robertson has been excellent, sometimes the main opposition in the past two years. The nats and the left will miss him. But I'm glad Mhairi Black held off the Labour surge and held her seat, she's also good and it's nice to see someone so young representing her constituents.

 

[blutto]

.....hmmm....that was an interesting result, correct ?.....so the Cons kinda euchred themselves didn't they ?....and they end up having to play with this crew to form a government.....

Remember when the DUP tried to sue the Ulster Museum for having an exhibition on evolution and not creationism. Great bunch of lads

....have I kinda got it sorta straight ?.....

Cheers

 

[ferryman]

Re:

@ferryman, how do you feel about the result? I imagine mixed: happy with UK result as a whole with the Tories creating chaos for themselves, but sad that most the Tory gains came in Scotland rather than England/Wales. Personally I was most upset by the loss of Angus Robertson - I've never warmed to Salmond at all but Robertson has been excellent, sometimes the main opposition in the past two years. The nats and the left will miss him. But I'm glad Mhairi Black held off the Labour surge and held her seat, she's also good and it's nice to see someone so young representing her constituents.[/Abquote]
In Scotland, a wee bit surprised at the Tory vote, but not overly disappointed or despondent with the SNP vote. The 56 out of 59 at the last GE was a once in a century turn out. 35 out of 69 is still a healthy endorsement, given that all 3 pro union parties up here made it all about Indyref2. Losing Robertson is a blow. Not so much Salmond. Edinburgh/Glasgow/Dundee, are still SNP. Delighted to see a Labour resurgence overall and Plaid Cymru getting another seat

ps if anyone reading this thinks your vote doesn't count, it does!! SNP won Fife North East by two votes!!!

 

[Jagartrott]

.....hmmm....that was an interesting result, correct ?.....so the Cons kinda euchred themselves didn't they ?....and they end up having to play with this crew to form a government.....

Remember when the DUP tried to sue the Ulster Museum for having an exhibition on evolution and not creationism. Great bunch of lads

....have I kinda got it sorta straight ?.....

DUP have several creationists in their ranks, climate deniers, are opposed to gay marriage, abortion, and have some other ideas that do not match with any other party. Several within the conservative party aren't very happy with May's decision to link up with DUP. She did it to save her position, but she's not safe yet (and the deal with DUP still has to be negotiated).

 

[del1962]

Expect another election in the autumn, meanwhile the 2 year clock will just keep ticking

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

ps if anyone reading this thinks your vote doesn't count, it does!! SNP won Fife North East by two votes!!!

But 2 isn't 1, and therefore every single vote in that constituency had absolutely no effect on the outcome

Another general election where every voter might as well have thrown their vote into the rubbish bin. The probability that this will be the case in the next generation election as well is high.

However, due to the unfair disproportionality of FPTP compared to PR, canvassing efforts by individuals in marginal seats do have a chance to have an impact, and though it is unlikely your vote will have any effect, the chance is in the 1 in 1000s range, as opposed to the 1 in millions range you get with fairer systems like PR.

 

[Brullnux]

.....hmmm....that was an interesting result, correct ?.....so the Cons kinda euchred themselves didn't they ?....and they end up having to play with this crew to form a government.....

Remember when the DUP tried to sue the Ulster Museum for having an exhibition on evolution and not creationism. Great bunch of lads

....have I kinda got it sorta straight ?.....

DUP have several creationists in their ranks, climate deniers, are opposed to gay marriage, abortion, and have some other ideas that do not match with any other party. Several within the conservative party aren't very happy with May's decision to link up with DUP. She did it to save her position, but she's not safe yet (and the deal with DUP still has to be negotiated).

Davidson, who is gay, doesn't like it very much. And crucially, there are more Scottish Tory MPs than DUP MPs, and their allegiance lies with Davidson, not May.

This is the beauty of British Politics and the FPTP system:

Lord Buckethead, The Monster Raving Loony Party, Elmo, and the Prime Minister Theresa May all standing for the same election

 

[SeriousSam]

The views of the DUP are more of a symbolism thing though, like Tim Farron's socially conservative private religious views.

It will not affect policy making outside of NI

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

So Sam, what did the market have as odds for a conservative majority?

I checked just before the polling stations closed (so before the exit poll was announced) with my bookie and it was 1/6 for a majority...

I only regularly followed the "most seats" market. 1/6 for a majority seems wrong even without the benefit of hindsight.

There wasn't enough polling data at the constituency level to predict outcomes with traditional polls, and those that used sophisticated methods (MRP)to overcome the lack of data, like yougov, predicted a hung parliament/that it's too close to call.

And if you only just looked at national polls, the trend was as follows:

So we appear to have a case here where the markets failed to optimally aggregate publicly available information. We shouldn't however draw any hasty conclusions about this regarding the extremely accurate Tour de France market.

 

[del1962]

Sam, I think you are saying sport is more predictable than politics

 

[Brullnux]

The views of the DUP are more of a symbolism thing though, like Tim Farron's socially conservative private religious views.

It will not affect policy making outside of NI

The DUP will pull out of the pact if there is any socially liberal policy, and have said that they strongly desire a hard border with the ROI. Any socially liberal policy will still pass, as there is no chance the Lib Dems, Labour and the SNP will not vote for it, but it will out a major strain on their relationship.

The key difference between Farron and Foster's DUP is that while both probably think gay sex and abortion is a sin, Farron, being a liberal, will not campaign against it as in theory he should believe that everyone has every right to sin or do something against his own personal views as he doesn't believe the state should interfere with people's lives. The DUP do not. They believe that the state can and should regulate in people's personal lives, in order to comply with their religious beliefs. They are traditional, old-fashioned conservatives.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

The DUP will pull out of the pact if there is any socially liberal policy, and have said that they strongly desire a hard border with the ROI.

They absolutely did not say that, can't imagine what gave you that impression. See especially No 7
Their manifesto:

DURING THE NEGOTIATIONS THE DUP WANTS TO SEE
A FOCUS ON THE FOLLOWING PRIORITIES AND OBJECTIVES:
1. Successful outward-looking knowledge-based economy in
Northern Ireland
2. Ease of trade with the Irish Republic and throughout the European
Union
3. Maintenance of the Common Travel Area
4. Strengthened relationships across the four components parts of the
United Kingdom with no internal borders
5. Northern Ireland-specific solutions achieved through active
Executive engagement
6. Particular circumstances of Northern Ireland with a land border
with the EU fully reflected
7. Frictionless border with Irish Republic assisting those working or
travelling in the other jurisdiction
8. Progress on new free trade deals with the rest of the world
9. Comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the
European Union
10. Northern Ireland established as a hub for trade from Irish Republic
into the broader UK market

 

[Brullnux]

Yeah I say that after I posted it. There's just been a lot of very conflicting reports from journalists and commentators, some of whom Northern Irish

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

It's difficult to explain to people who don't follow Northern Irish politics (a category that includes almost everyone in Britain) just how weird the DUP are. They are a mixture of 17th Century fundamentalism, rabid bigotry and financial corruption bordering on the comic. There really is nothing like them in Western European politics. Americans familiar with the kind of Bible Belt televangelists who don't like "race mixing" and have to keep doing redemption speeches after getting caught embezzling the donations will have a much more instinctive feel for the DUP worldview than anyone in England or Wales will. Some Scots will know the type though, even though they aren't a political force in Scotland.

I'm not sure that the Tories have really thought through how much damage standing too close to the DUP could do to them. There is enough DUP baggage accumulated over the years but unknown in Britain to provide a media and social media outrage of the day every single day for the foreseeable future. Try to think of something crazy a Northern Irish politician could have done, whether it's lead an armed invasion of the Republic, get thrown out of the European Parliament for yelling "I REJECT YOU ANTICHRIST" at the Pope, call for Catholics to be ethnically cleansed or describe gay people as worse than child molestors, and a leading figure in the DUP will likely already have done it. If by some chance they haven't already done it, they can probably be persuaded to do it tomorrow.

The funniest thing about it all is just how alien the insane flag-waving Britishry and political religiosity is to people in Great Britain. Your average English person knows very marginally more about the politics of Northern Ireland than he or she knows about the politics of Gibraltar or the Falkland Islands, other outposts of triangular plastic union jacks and Princess Diana commemorative tea towels. And would be approximately as happy to find out that the craziest people in the Falklands are the new overlords of Westminster as they are to find that the government is in the power of the DUP.

 

[blutto]

....gee someone is excited....a nice bookend to his Trump rant ?....

http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2017/06/john-pie-on-uk-general-election.html

Cheers

 

[Brullnux]

In Blair's defence, I would also find it hard to support someone who has said they'd put me on trial at The Hague for war crimes if they won. Not saying he doesn't deserve it.

 

[Brullnux]

May seems safe - for now. She's put her fate in the hands of the 1922 committee after apparently a good performance in front of then today. Meanwhile some Tory commentators and many tory politicians have adopted the "Crisis? What crisis?" approach. She's surprised me by staying this long, but I assume it's because even BoJo can see beyond his ambitions and ego and realise that PM right now is a poisoned chalice: whatever Brexit agreement you deliver, you will piss off an important section of your party, and voters. A Soft Brexit will lose the support of more than enough tory backbenchers, and a hard one will alienate the Scottish Tories and some other MPs as well as the DUP. May doesn't have any actual power anyway, she's at the mercy of her cabinet and backbenchers. I expect Johnson to wait at least until the Tory Conference and maximum until the Conference of 2019.

Meanwhile Labour seem to have united behind Corbyn (mostly). Like last year, the tories are in disarray. Unlike last year, the Labour party are not destroying themselves, and could provide a strong opposition and capitalise on this. Tom Watson seems keen on this.