18-Valve. (pithy) said:
Everyone expects the second week to be very hard. With 2 HC MTFs Evans is likely to lose time to second tier climbers. In 2007 he already lost close to two minutes to Albertoe and Chicken on one of those climbs. Well over one minute to Leechheimer. And he was a better climber then.
If Evans wants to podium, though, he has to gain time on his direct competitors in the first week. The Mur de Bretagne climb should suit him. Short and steep. Then again... the team time trial, while short-ish is not necessarily in his favor.
not what i meant.
I meant the first 11 stages. Lot of short little stages where time can be lost.
Stage 9 looks really interesting.
Gesink is definitely worse than Basso on short, punchy climbs, when they're both on form, however.
when gesink is in top form he has no problems with this sort of stuff.
He has done really well @ Fleche and Emilia when in top form.
Even at TA and Basque when he didn't look good, he limited his loses (less then 30 secs on the climbs between the 2 races). And he didn't look good there. In all truth the Dauphine was the first time Gesink looked good since Last year's autumn campaign (and Oman, but let's not put any emphasis on that.
At top form he is unlikely to lose much time.
However it is fully possible. Anyone contender could lose time here, not so much from ability but a mistake or poor placement.
I think there could be some crucial moments in the first ten days.