Cadel evans do or die for tour de france this july

[Dedelou]

I would not rate Boogerd's career anywhere near as successful as Evans but I wouldn't call him a loser either. How many times were Poulidor and Zoetemelk placed in the TDF behind great riders like Anqeutil and Merckx. To say they were losers is also insulting to the great riders that beat them.

Zoetemelk won a World Title late in his career and won one TDF but was overshadowed by better riders. I don't care if Evans loses, I still admire him. Others can think what they like. He has a done a lot for Australian cycling and raising the sport's profile. His fans are entitled to hope, the same way that fans of Wiggins, Gesink, VDB are counting on them to do well. No one can say Evans lacks determination and heart. He will be battling away in July as usual, giving it his best.

Cadel's riding is a good study for me to examine what makes me vibrate in a racer. I certainly know i do respect his talent , his courage , his tenacity and yet I can't say I admire him since I never find myself moved to cheer hard for his winning. ( yes i do cheer him a little .. nothing wild )

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

Yes. Cadel is like a fine wine. More like a Champagne actually!

He starts off sparkly and effervescent but goes flat by the end of the race and lacks the oomph to close the deal.

 

[cocteau_ireland]

tirreno n romandie are no indicators of tdf winner He too big n swayey[sic] Plus absolute glum zip nada in terms of promoting this sport to neutrals Not even menacing in the hinault tradition

 

[El Pistolero]

Yes. Cadel is like a fine wine. More like a Champagne actually!

There's no such thing as Australian champagne. You're calling Cuddles a cheap knock off

 

[Archibald]

There's no such thing as Australian champagne. You're calling Cuddles a cheap knock off

good thing he didn't mention what nationality the champagne was then

 

[El Pistolero]

good thing he didn't mention what nationality the champagne was then

Good thing Champagne can only come from one place

It's a joke about Cuddles being Aussie, no need to take it serious. Besides there's only one cyclist like that can be compared to wine... Vino.

 

[dlwssonic]

he will more go down as the eternal loser, bit like boogerd, he also won races but his 2nd and 3rd places overshadowed that.

no if you say that then the real losers would be those colombian climbers with all
the climbing talent but they would never win something big. Maybe they would win the vuelta colombia but who cares the whole world doesnt recognise that other than south america. They will always crash and be off form or something like that and return after a few years. the problem is that they cant do anything else than climb.

 

[auscyclefan94]

no if you say that then the real losers would be those colombian climbers with all
the climbing talent but they would never win something big. Maybe they would win the vuelta colombia but who cares the whole world doesnt recognise that other than south america. They will always crash and be off form or something like that and return after a few years. the problem is that they cant do anything else than climb.

I wouldn't reply to that hater. Yes I think we can definetly call Ryo Hazuki a hater of Evans without any question.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Come on ACF, you know the rules on language and bypassing the filters.

Let's stick on topic. I'll even help out:

Cadel was earlier referred to as someone very strong in ITTs. In the off chance that the Tour organizers go back to course designs like during the Indurain years, and we see a Tour with over 200km total TT distance, and not a lot of brutal climbs, I think he'd have a chance in 2012.

Perhaps his one and main chance this year is that AC and Andy waste too much energy attacking each other, and Basso can't capitalize, but Cadel can.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Come on ACF, you know the rules on language and bypassing the filters.

Let's stick on topic. I'll even help out:

Cadel was earlier referred to as someone very strong in ITTs. In the off chance that the Tour organizers go back to course designs like during the Indurain years, and we see a Tour with over 200km total TT distance, and not a lot of brutal climbs, I think he'd have a chance in 2012.

Perhaps his one and main chance this year is that AC and Andy waste too much energy attacking each other, and Basso can't capitalize, but Cadel can.

Fair enough

the fact that this route is heavily back ended. The first 1.5 to 2 weeks do have some hard stages but no real difficult ones so they are more there to just sap the legs. One they hit the pyrenees, the race really begins and AC may be able to handle and go well on the stages to Luz Ardiden and Plateau de Beille. Once they hit the alps, even for AC I think it may be too much. Even with dope it is hard to back up from such a giro and be competitive at the Tour. This is why I believe that the tour can be won by guys such as Schleck, Gesink, VDB, Evans, Basso and Sanchez (would hate to leave him out due to The Hitch's love for him). I don't think Cadel is such a 'bad climber' (in comparison to others) than what people do say. Anyway, all i can say is I think Cadel is a chance.

A little off topic but what material is cadel wearing in this tt?
http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/

It is the main picture at the top.

 

[just some guy]

it almost looks like rubber even though it could not be.

maybe that why he was sweating so much, be good energy return also.??

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I think the first two weeks are gonna be harder then expected tho.
I get the feeling there will be at least 1 big loser in the first 2 weeks.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think the first two weeks are gonna be harder then expected tho.
I get the feeling there will be at least 1 big loser in the first 2 weeks.

There generally is a big loser in the first week of a GT.


The fact that we have the TTT and the stage to Cap Frehel which could blow the race apart with the crosswinds, there will be a few riders on the back foot.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

yes, but there also a lot of little stages where if the riders are not right at the front 30 seconds here and there can be lost.

I think it could be a very good tour to be honest.

 

[blaxland]

I think the first two weeks are gonna be harder then expected tho.
I get the feeling there will be at least 1 big loser in the first 2 weeks.

Agree +1 Timmy.Any predictions on who it may be?
My guess would be someone like Soler/Cunego/Sanchez....

 

[El Pistolero]

Agree +1 Timmy.Any predictions on who it may be?
My guess would be someone like Soler/Cunego/Sanchez....

Ivan Basso. These punchy stages are not for him, so he could lose some time on these stages and combined it could already put a serious dent in his podium place imo. Especially since his form isn't all that right now.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I think the first two weeks are gonna be harder then expected tho.
I get the feeling there will be at least 1 big loser in the first 2 weeks.

Everyone expects the second week to be very hard. With 2 HC MTFs Evans is likely to lose time to second tier climbers. In 2007 he already lost close to two minutes to Albertoe and Chicken on one of those climbs. Well over one minute to Leechheimer. And he was a better climber then.

If Evans wants to podium, though, he has to gain time on his direct competitors in the first week. The Mur de Bretagne climb should suit him. Short and steep. Then again... the team time trial, while short-ish is not necessarily in his favor.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Ivan Basso. These punchy stages are not for him, so he could lose some time on these stages and combined it could already put a serious dent in his podium place imo. Especially since his form isn't all that right now.

Gesink is definitely worse than Basso on short, punchy climbs, when they're both on form, however.

I expect some lackluster performances by Gesink. He may well lose over one minute to guys like Evans in the first week. Maybe more.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Everyone expects the second week to be very hard. With 2 HC MTFs Evans is likely to lose time to second tier climbers. In 2007 he already lost close to two minutes to Albertoe and Chicken on one of those climbs. Well over one minute to Leechheimer. And he was a better climber then.

If Evans wants to podium, though, he has to gain time on his direct competitors in the first week. The Mur de Bretagne climb should suit him. Short and steep. Then again... the team time trial, while short-ish is not necessarily in his favor.

not what i meant.
I meant the first 11 stages. Lot of short little stages where time can be lost.

Stage 9 looks really interesting.

Gesink is definitely worse than Basso on short, punchy climbs, when they're both on form, however.

when gesink is in top form he has no problems with this sort of stuff.
He has done really well @ Fleche and Emilia when in top form.

Even at TA and Basque when he didn't look good, he limited his loses (less then 30 secs on the climbs between the 2 races). And he didn't look good there. In all truth the Dauphine was the first time Gesink looked good since Last year's autumn campaign (and Oman, but let's not put any emphasis on that.

At top form he is unlikely to lose much time.

However it is fully possible. Anyone contender could lose time here, not so much from ability but a mistake or poor placement.
I think there could be some crucial moments in the first ten days.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Gesink is definitely worse than Basso on short, punchy climbs, when they're both on form, however.

I expect some lackluster performances by Gesink. He may well lose over one minute to guys like Evans in the first week. Maybe more.

that is so untrue. gesink actually podium the agr, if there's one race punchy and short hills it's that. in topshape gesink will have less trouble than basso for sure.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I wouldn't reply to that hater. Yes I think we can definetly call Ryo Hazuki a hater of Evans without any question.

oh yeah and the great part of it is to see evans fail in any gt for eveyr year he's been a pro now. I can't wait to se ehim drop again and listen to his bs excuses he makes up for the fact that he's no climber.

 

[Cimber]

He has never been my favorite rider, but the last few years I have actuelly grown fond of him. He is a lot more agressive now and as always he burries himself.

He wont win, and probably wont finish on the podium either, but I would be happy if he did.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

when gesink is in top form he has no problems with this sort of stuff.
He has done really well @ Fleche and Emilia when in top form.

Even at TA and Basque when he didn't look good, he limited his loses (less then 30 secs on the climbs between the 2 races). And he didn't look good there. In all truth the Dauphine was the first time Gesink looked good since Last year's autumn campaign (and Oman, but let's not put any emphasis on that.

I'm talking about the 2011 Gesink, though. Yes... he was good on the longer climbs at the Dauphine. But that's not what I'm talking about.

Oh yeah, he would have lost like 35 seconds at TA if they had bothered to count the gaps in the stage that Evans won. The Tour has more short, punchy climbs than TA did. He could definitely lose over a minute in the first 9 or 11 days, IMO. Excluding the TTT, of course.

 

[Ferminal]

that is so untrue. gesink actually podium the agr, if there's one race punchy and short hills it's that. in topshape gesink will have less trouble than basso for sure.

Canada last year too?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I'm talking about the 2011 Gesink, though. Yes... he was good on the longer climbs at the Dauphine. But that's not what I'm talking about.

Oh yeah, he would have lost like 35 seconds at TA if they had bothered to count the gaps in the stage that Evans won. The Tour has more short, punchy climbs than TA did. He could definitely lose over a minute in the first 9 or 11 days, IMO. Excluding the TTT, of course.

That isn't the point.
Like my post indicated, Gesink was in bad form at TA and still limited his losses. He didn't even want to continue racing but his team willed him on.
When in top form he has no problem. The tour ones aren't as explosive either, at TA they were very steep very sudden. Here the stages have hilly finishes around 4 to 8%

I am certain he will be in better form at tour, the Dauphine he was below peak but still looked better then he has in quite some time.