Cadel Evans, I told you it was his year.

[roundabout]

For him it might be a disappointment, but to me Evans rode incredibly well in 2007. Sure 3 seconds is an very small margin but he thought for every second that year and was amazingly close to an opponent who was able to put the hurt on him on just about every mountain stage except for 1km on the Aubsique.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Ha Ha - you are a funny guy. 1995 was a pretty good year for Cadel - third in both the under 19 mountain bike XC and the road time trial on a borrowed bike after a couple of years of competitive riding - I am not sure there are too many riders who have shown this level of raw talent before, but anyway...

I reckon after two mountain bike world cups, road world chamionship, leadership of all major tours, etc etc that Cadel will maybe feel ok about what his achieved, but a tour win would be nice.

Nobody is doubting Cadel's talent. Well, nobody except fools.

But Cadel has only really started in the last 2 years to amass anything like the palmarès that a rider of his talent should have. There will always be a feeling of 'what if...?' about certain aspects of his career. Denis Menchov, Paolo Savoldelli, Alexandre Vinokourov and Carlos Sastre have all won GTs while Cadel's been riding, and you can't say he's less naturally talented than any of them.

The way this race has developed, he will probably never have a chance this good again to right the wrongs of years gone by. But far too many times in the past, either Evans has found an excuse or his fans have found one for him. For a long time it almost felt like he felt safer once he had his reason for not winning, because then he didn't have to be as afraid of losing. But what Parrulo's mocking is this tendency to fire off excuses. Sometimes Evans has had legitimate excuses, other times it's been pretty clear grasping at straws. For a long time the rallying cry has been "Evans could/would have won, if..."

It seems that Cuddles finally got the memo during the Dauphiné in 2009, after one last heroic act of blandness, expecting other people to chase Valverde down for him. Quite often uncertain, non-committal or just downright conservative tactics have let him down, but he's grown much smarter as time has gone on. Comparing his Flèche Wallonne win last year with 2008, where he was probably the strongest rider on the Mur, but went too early and was outkicked, you can really see how he changed in this respect. The problem is, this improvement in his racing brain is coming at the same time as he reaches the end of his peak years as a rider. The question now is, is there enough overlap to let him take best advantage and win that elusive Grand Tour?

 

[fatsprintking]

My take is a little different.

Cadel is an unconventional person at any level and very unconventional for a bike rider. I believe that his motivations are different to most other people and this has shown at many times through his career. Initially Cadel tried to simply use his talent without paying attention to the other aspects of cycling, and his teams tried to treat him like any other rider when he clearly needs a different approach.

Over time Cadel has modified his approach a little and I think that others have also developed an understanding of how he needs to be managed to operate effectively within the world of pro cycling. This has been oversimplified into a change in racing strategy which is simply a trailing indicator of other things.

I would bet that Cadel would put his relationship with his wife and maybe even his dog as a higher priority than wininning the tour. Many see this as something that should be derided and he is an easy target, but it is who he is and I have always respected his ability to maintain who HE is rather than to try and play a PR game.

From a cycling level he has underachieved given his talent, but from a life level I think he has done pretty well and sleeps pretty soundly. Winning the tour would be great but I dont think it will chang his perspective on what he has achieved.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'm not convinced that the Tour has not been a high priority. One only needs to see how highly strung he's got in the past to see that this is a key thing for him.

Now, however, he's got a bunch of wins. He's a World Champion. Winning the Tour won't make such a massive difference now as it would have done when he had pretty much 0 big wins to his name. It allows him to be less highly strung about it, too, which seems to be one of the key things. Quite often in the past, he seemed to struggle with some of the mental aspect of the sport, quite possibly for the reasons you outline above. Now he seems more attuned with his goals, whether that be because of pressure being off, the change of teams or whatever.

The change in racing strategy is something of a misnomer; Cuddles has attacked in the past, many times during the era in which he was derided as a wheelsucker. But what has changed in the attacks is twofold.
1) He seems to time them much better now
2) He seems far less likely to get the sulks. Times like the 2009 Dauphiné on the Ventoux, it felt like he got fed up nobody was going to help him and just rode through; by the 2010 Giro we saw similar situations develop, but Evans riding across the gap, not being afraid of pulling people along.

It's been a gradual process, but the Rainbow Jersey victory is what we can point to as the tipping point. He's just seemed like a changed man since then.

 

[fatsprintking]

I'm not convinced that the Tour has not been a high priority. One only needs to see how highly strung he's got in the past to see that this is a key thing for him.

Now, however, he's got a bunch of wins. He's a World Champion. Winning the Tour won't make such a massive difference now as it would have done when he had pretty much 0 big wins to his name. It allows him to be less highly strung about it, too, which seems to be one of the key things. Quite often in the past, he seemed to struggle with some of the mental aspect of the sport, quite possibly for the reasons you outline above. Now he seems more attuned with his goals, whether that be because of pressure being off, the change of teams or whatever.

The change in racing strategy is something of a misnomer; Cuddles has attacked in the past, many times during the era in which he was derided as a wheelsucker. But what has changed in the attacks is twofold.
1) He seems to time them much better now
2) He seems far less likely to get the sulks. Times like the 2009 Dauphiné on the Ventoux, it felt like he got fed up nobody was going to help him and just rode through; by the 2010 Giro we saw similar situations develop, but Evans riding across the gap, not being afraid of pulling people along.

It's been a gradual process, but the Rainbow Jersey victory is what we can point to as the tipping point. He's just seemed like a changed man since then.

I would argue that he is a changed bike rider rather than a changed man.

The tour is obviously his priority in cycling, I am just pointing out that his life has bigger priorities. Working towards goals is very important for him I would think, but I also feel that he can rest pretty easy if he feels that he has done the best he can. Winning the tour for him would be the culmination of a process that has played out for 17 years, more than the trappings that come from winning the tour.

His getting strung out at the tour is more to do with him being an introverted personality that needs space and he struggles to cope with the people, noise and general frenzy of the tour. He visably lights up when his wife and dog visit him on the tour, but this is also when he becomes snappy as for him these visits are not a PR opportunity.

 

[Dermie]

Excellent insightful posts. Cadel has a beauty all of his own.
One thing this win would give him would be a good earning capacity for the rest of his life, but as you said that would not be on top of his priorities. He would want to win because he loves his bike racing & the tdf is the pinnacle.
Even for a great ex mtn,r.

 

[Oldman]

The wise are waiting for Cadel to implode??? or the hopefull?? because if he dosen't then things are going to get tough to be around him.
Because he has not ridden to his potential before because of, broken bones, no teams, having to ride Giro's prior. Remember when he was with Lotto & they were focused on Robbie's sprinting??
Well now he has a team dedicated to him & all the other things are going his way, & he is performing you expect him to "implode", maybe you are hoping he will.
I reckon he has all the (well not all, he could do with a climbing teamate) the right things going for him & he will fight like the best of them. Not "like" but "better".

Not to harsh your buzz butthe climbing help is the key. That's why a collaboration with another team like Basso's would be a win for both.

 

[Ramira]

Not to harsh your buzz butthe climbing help is the key. That's why a collaboration with another team like Basso's would be a win for both.

It would be a win for Evans but a massive loss for Basso. Going on his last few TT's he needs to make up at least 1 minute 30 if not 2 minutes on Evans to finish ahead of him. It would make no sense for him to ally himself with Evans as he would more or less resign himself to finish behind him. He would be far better off making a deal with Samuel Sanchez or Contador but it is unlikely they will work with anyone but eachother. That really leaves no-one for Evans to work with, so while I agree that in principle it would be a great idea for Evans I don't see any team willing to work with him considering the fact he is the one they have to crack to win this tour (if the final TT was tomorrow I have no doubt Evans would win this tour right now).

 

[Oldman]

It would be a win for Evans but a massive loss for Basso. Going on his last few TT's he needs to make up at least 1 minute 30 if not 2 minutes on Evans to finish ahead of him. It would make no sense for him to ally himself with Evans as he would more or less resign himself to finish behind him. He would be far better off making a deal with Samuel Sanchez or Contador but it is unlikely they will work with anyone but eachother. That really leaves no-one for Evans to work with, so while I agree that in principle it would be a great idea for Evans I don't see any team willing to work with him considering the fact he is the one they have to crack to win this tour (if the final TT was tomorrow I have no doubt Evans would win this tour right now).

It is pie in the sky planning but allegiances don't have to last more than a stage to help thin the ranks. Basso looks to me like he will only climb better so he can benefit from Sanchez (Contador's buddy) or anyone that can get him up the road. If the Schlecks are for real and Contador loses any more time the race tactics get even more dire for Cadel, I'm afraid.

 

[Dermie]

Seeing as we are in fantasy land!! Now if Cadel can just maintain a reasonable composure to the Shreck attacks the others have to help, not chase hard to catch, just limit the time loss, Conty & Basso have to help 'cos otherwise the Shrecks will just start pulling away from them also.
So is it possible that the Shrecks end up attacking & doing themselves in. Sort of end up inadvertently attacking each other. At the moment it appears they have the upper hand & have played it (to their advantage?) already. So tonight do they let Frankie up the road again? & he gets even more time, but can the young one stay back? has he got an ego? so does he want to win or get on the 2nd step in Paris?. So he goes up the road after Frankie, pulls the others up to them both, by now the Shreckies are forked & the others jump 'em in the last 2kms get Frankies time back & drop Andy.
Cycling is notorious for riders with unbeatable advantages blowing it to fail at the finish line & often in dramatic circumstances. Plateau de Beille!!!! tonight, bring it on I say.

 

[movingtarget]

The wise are waiting for Cadel to implode??? or the hopefull?? because if he dosen't then things are going to get tough to be around him.
Because he has not ridden to his potential before because of, broken bones, no teams, having to ride Giro's prior. Remember when he was with Lotto & they were focused on Robbie's sprinting??
Well now he has a team dedicated to him & all the other things are going his way, & he is performing you expect him to "implode", maybe you are hoping he will.
I reckon he has all the (well not all, he could do with a climbing teamate) the right things going for him & he will fight like the best of them. Not "like" but "better".

I don't put myself in the category of the wise. I was being saracastic. I want Evans to win.

 

[theswordsman]

I don't know if it's more his own make-up or the teams that he's worked with. After the 2010 La Fleche Wallonne, he said that he'd gone out to do recon on the Mur de Huy for the first time ever, and realized that he'd been riding it wrong all the years before. It worked out great for him, but recon rides are so common these days that I wondered why he hadn't made the effort before?

 

[python]

one difference i see in cadel's riding is he's more aware, more calculating.

the past defensive/calculating got replaced with shrewd/calculating...in one word he is riding smarter.

when added to his ever-present huge natural talent, that might be what will finally get him to the very top.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

While we're talking improbable alliances, Cadel should ally with the Schlecks to work against Contador. They seem too focused on Contador to think about him, and they're just about stupid enough to let him ride with them without realising that they'd be effectively sealing his GC win.

 

[rzombie1988]

While we're talking improbable alliances, Cadel should ally with the Schlecks to work against Contador. They seem too focused on Contador to think about him, and they're just about stupid enough to let him ride with them without realising that they'd be effectively sealing his GC win.

The Schlecks don't need Evans. They are smart for focusing on Contador. It's worked well so far and it's exactly what Contador would be doing if he didn't need to attack.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The Schlecks don't need Evans. They are smart for focusing on Contador. It's worked well so far and it's exactly what Contador would be doing if he didn't need to attack.

I was making a joke, based on the fact that the Schlecks are seen by many as not too bright.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

1 Down?



1 Down... 1 (of the 1st 2) to go for this prediction to be right?



Not looking that bad. Still a few to go and Saturdays stage to Plateau de Beille is the one that could unhinge him... but he cut it in Stage 12?



Ahhh... No.

Lots of long term posters make predictions and point to post counts as evidence of their superior knowledge... before condescendingly pointing out that "July is a funny month" to anyone who dare posts something in opposition to their views.

Cadel may still implode and the above posters may become prescient... but they're not always right.

Never believed he could win it, but IMO a podium spot is looking more and more likely. Top step? Now wouldn't that be funny.

Like I said mate, if the injury had no I affect I was certain he would beat him (acf said the 3 minutes comment, I replied as in, he might not beat him by 3 minutes, but will beat him regardless... If the injury has no affect.)
As it did have affect, that post means noting. Good reference at nothing pal.

Anyway regarding the july is a funny month, it is, people make stupid repetitive threads because they are too thick to look. If a poster comes here and is generally good I would not say a thing. In fact I have defended them in the past. Dry your tears elsewhere.

 

[Oldman]

Seeing as we are in fantasy land!! Now if Cadel can just maintain a reasonable composure to the Shreck attacks the others have to help, not chase hard to catch, just limit the time loss, Conty & Basso have to help 'cos otherwise the Shrecks will just start pulling away from them also.
So is it possible that the Shrecks end up attacking & doing themselves in. Sort of end up inadvertently attacking each other. At the moment it appears they have the upper hand & have played it (to their advantage?) already. So tonight do they let Frankie up the road again? & he gets even more time, but can the young one stay back? has he got an ego? so does he want to win or get on the 2nd step in Paris?. So he goes up the road after Frankie, pulls the others up to them both, by now the Shreckies are forked & the others jump 'em in the last 2kms get Frankies time back & drop Andy.
Cycling is notorious for riders with unbeatable advantages blowing it to fail at the finish line & often in dramatic circumstances. Plateau de Beille!!!! tonight, bring it on I say.

So today it appeared to me that Cadel and Basso were applying complementary pressure on everyone, effectively negating the Schleck's punch, counter punch attacks. Whether this was an alliance or not; it had the same effect in real terms and not fantasyland. Sanchez went up the road and that added pressure to all.

 

[Kender]

meanwhile everyone discounts tommy. he's not out of this by any means. he looked like one of the strongest in the group today. he certainly chased down the most attacks

 

[ILOVEMTB]

Well he sure is in a great position, but he still has to ride two more big MTF's, one of those I'm sure he still has nightmare's about from 2008. He seems very calm and is riding very smart. Given the things that have happend with Cadel in the past I am hesitant to say he will win.
GO CADEL!!!!

 

[Spider1964]

< mate, pal... Man love from Timmy>.

Anyway regarding the july is a funny month, it is, people make stupid repetitive threads because they are too thick to look. If a poster comes here and is generally good I would not say a thing. In fact I have defended them in the past. Dry your tears elsewhere.

Cry me a river Timmy... and I'm sure all new posters would be buoyed by your support... validation by the great man... well done champ. I'd argue some of your counter-claims, but then that would be like arguing with a fictional interwebs character... sort of meaningless.

Anyways... back on topic.... Cadel still seems to be sitting in a nice position. I can sense another 2nd... but hoping for a win... who knows? He's past the 2nd MTF that some experienced posters predicted he would fail on?

 

[Dermie]

Tranquillo e muy bueno

Lelangue would say this, but he seems like a calm sort of team manager not complaining about the others just quietly content with where his rider is situated
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/lelangue-pleased-with-pyrenean-stalemate

 

[auscyclefan94]

Well said

1 Down?



1 Down... 1 (of the 1st 2) to go for this prediction to be right?



Not looking that bad. Still a few to go and Saturdays stage to Plateau de Beille is the one that could unhinge him... but he cut it in Stage 12?



Ahhh... No.

Lots of long term posters make predictions and point to post counts as evidence of their superior knowledge... before condescendingly pointing out that "July is a funny month" to anyone who dare posts something in opposition to their views.

Cadel may still implode and the above posters may become prescient... but they're not always right.

Never believed he could win it, but IMO a podium spot is looking more and more likely. Top step? Now wouldn't that be funny.

LOL, you could just use TLR posts the whole time to back up your claims. about him continually saying Evans will crack but still doesn't. Timmy is getting ****ed off that he may very well be porved wrong. Go have a sook Timmy.

may we have a look at the post count...

Dermie 49
Timmy-loves-Rabo 29
movingtarget 19
auscyclefan94 19
Oldman 17
Midnightfright 16
Angliru 11

So someone who has openly said he dislikesa thread aabout this rider has the 2nd most posts in this thread because he feels the need to shut down any poster who think differently about Cadel's chances at the Tour. Make what you want about the post count.

Talk about the nail hitting the head, Well done Spider1964

Go Cadel!!!

 

[Dermie]

Isn't this a photo of Cadel riding aggressively, hhmmm, strange earlier in this thread it was said that he does/would not do this!
He was also supposed to have cracked by now (even a couple of days ago)!
His team worked well today!
He had some helpers up to a reasonable part of the climb!
Contador was on his own!
His tactics appear to be right on the ball!!
Wow my luck at having my tour hopeful realizing his talent given all the right circumstances!!!!!

 

[movingtarget]

Evans is looking really good. He rode a very smart race yesterday. He looks quietly confident and at ease with himself.