Cadel Evans on 2012 TdF favorites : No contador among the main contenders??

[auscyclefan94]

Cadel is a strange guy for sure, nobody should be surprised if he says something odd.He is unpopular even amongst the Aussie peloton.
For me he has improved enormously over the past 2 yrs, for his more aggressive style of racing as much as for his wins.
I have massive respect for his tour win, he just doesn't have the charisma or panache of Contador,Gilbert,Cancellara,Hushovd .

Phil Anderson quotes

"Everything has to go Cadel's way or he falls down in a heap"

"He's not a born leader"

"He hasn't got many friends in the peloton"

"He's not really a people person"

I find it funny how Phil Anderson is a good judge of character. That really cracks me up. Breaking up with two wives and then breaking an intervention order with one of them and then twisting one of his wife's arms amongst other force used.

 

[El Pistolero]

Well I deliberatively emphazised that the TT was supposed to be long AND flat. And looking at results in long and flat TTs, I can't find a single great / very good result on Contadors side and some of them on the side of the other riders.

I do know too, that Wiggins started his carreer being very well in prologues...
...I already stated more than one time in other threads that I find it interesting that he suddenly turned into a climber/long tt guy.
Ostriches to fly sometimes don't they? But that's a very diffrent topic.

And of course being good at long distances doesn't mean you can't be good at short ones as well. Still there are some riders who get better the longer the course gets and vica versa. And there are riders who are better at hilly courses and worse on flat ones.
One of the most extreme examples for this is Bruseghin btw., he's just total crap on flat courses compared to his hilly/mountain results.

Even El Pistolero agrees that Contador isn't great in long and flat TTs. There's also just no evidence to show something diffrent.
Not even the Annecy results before the climb indicate that he can be great at flat TTs, as Cancellara an others had to take the mountain into consideration.

Contador is a very capable rider, and the only thin I like about him is that he's rather agressive and that he's always riding for the win, doing this in a lot of races. But all of that doesn't make him a great time trialist. As much as one might like him because of all of his other abilities.

Edit:
the really important part about the distance + course I think is that the disatvantage grows with the distance as the course doesn't suit him.
I really have to admit though, that I don't really know why riders react diffrent to the distances. I don't think your Gebresellasie argument necessarily works, as running is somewhat diffrent to cyling.
I do remember reading that Merckx used to fade after anything longer than 40kms. And I mean, it was Merckx, he cracked his opponents on pure strength and endurance quite often. It seems the pure endurance capabilities don't apply to TTs considering this.

I don't think Cadel Evans is a great time trial specialist either by the way. I rank him a lot lower than Contador in fact. Wiggins I rate higher, but after 3 weeks of racing... Who knows.

Ps: the first time trial is hilly. And Contador is a lot better in prologues than most other GT contenders. So 2 time trials in next year's Tour favor him a lot

 

[Siriuscat]

Interesting....Whatever Cuddles said it's produced all sorts of nonsense in here.

If Cadel thinks Berto isn't a contender he needs his head looked at, however there are plenty of other quotes which discount this, maybe we should let it rest.

For comparison perhaps we should look at Grenoble, Berto dropped only 59 seconds to Cadel despite the fact that he was completely spent from the hardest Giro in recent memory and the previous three weeks PLUS what he'd done the day before to Alpe D'Huez.

If Berto rides next year in good form and condition he will be the riders to beat, no-one else.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

For comparison perhaps we should look at Grenoble, Berto dropped only 59 seconds to Cadel despite the fact that he was completely spent from the hardest Giro in recent memory and the previous three weeks PLUS what he'd done the day before to Alpe D'Huez.

Shhh...

 

[airstream]

Interesting....Whatever Cuddles said it's produced all sorts of nonsense in here.
For comparison perhaps we should look at Grenoble, Berto dropped only 59 seconds to Cadel despite the fact that he was completely spent from the hardest Giro in recent memory and the previous three weeks PLUS what he'd done the day before to Alpe D'Huez.
If Berto rides next year in good form and condition he will be the riders to beat, no-one else.

The Giro is not the best argument. Anyways there're more evidences to consider that Contador's form went up on the 3rd week, despite he lost so much on the Galibier. To think the other way means to believe that Contador сould have destroyed the field, having 80% of the Giro form. It isnt so. Do you suppose, Evans wasted less energy than Contador on the previous 2 stages? He'll beat him in TT only if Evans will get weaker.

 

[apmfbs]

The Giro is not the best argument. Anyways there're more evidences to consider that Contador's form went up on the 3rd week, despite he lost so much on the Galibier. To think the other way means to believe that Contador would have destroyed the field, having 80% of the Giro form. It isnt so. Do you suppose, Evans wasted less energy than Contador on the previous 2 stages? He'll beat him in TT only if Evans will get weaker.

Well, I don´t agree with you. Evans was at his best and Contador wasn,t. If we review the tours 2009 and 2010 Contador didn´t lose a prologue or an ITT agains cadel...............so in my opinion CADEL best chances are the las ITT , Porrentruy and boulogne sur mere.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Do you suppose, Evans wasted less energy than Contador on the previous 2 stages?

Yes. Contador and Andy Schleck obviously wasted more energy than Evans before Grenoble.

 

[airstream]

Well, I don´t agree with you. Evans was at his best and Contador wasn,t. If we review the tours 2009 and 2010 Contador didn´t lose a prologue or an ITT agains cadel...............so in my opinion CADEL best chances are the las ITT , Porrentruy and boulogne sur mere.

But it was hilly actually. At the rate we read in this thread, at least, such TT suits Contador better. Evans' edge could have been more considerable on flat. We know why he always lost. How you see this? Evans, who stuck to wheels all his career, will dare to attack Contador? Boulogne-sur-Mere is MTF too? I'm sure Evans will bank on TT's only to try to win,

 

[Siriuscat]

The Giro is not the best argument. Anyways there're more evidences to consider that Contador's form went up on the 3rd week, despite he lost so much on the Galibier. To think the other way means to believe that Contador сould have destroyed the field, having 80% of the Giro form. It isnt so. Do you suppose, Evans wasted less energy than Contador on the previous 2 stages? He'll beat him in TT only if Evans will get weaker.

His "form level" may have risen but his fatigue levels would have been rising exponentially as well. I think we perhaps underestimate how hard that Giro was, yet he finished 5th. Look at the other Giro protagonists what have either Nibs or Scarponi done since?? Nibs 7th in the Vuelta with 6 weeks more recovey, Scarponi abandoned.

Personally, I've never seen Cadel in the form or fitness like he was at the Tour, it truly was his best ever year. However had Contador not been in Italy his TT form would be a mute point because he would have been far far superior in the mountains.

Cadel won the tour because he took his chances when he could, limited loses to better climbers, rode a great time trial and too advantage of the basic ineptitude of Team Frandy. Please don't be fooled into thinking that he can now win under any circumstances.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

But it was hilly actually. At the rate we read in this thread, at least, such TT suits Contador better. Evans' edge could have been more considerable on flat. We know why he always lost. How you see this? Evans, who stuck to wheels all his career, will dare to attack Contador? Boulogne-sur-Mere is MTF too? I'm sure Evans will bank on TT's only to try to win,

Descents also. Maybe.

Doesn't matter, though. Evans won't stand a chance even if he puts minutes into Contador in TTs.

He has to count on bad luck on Contador's part to win the 2012 Tour. Or CAS. That's it.

 

[The Hitch]

Well I deliberatively emphazised that the TT was supposed to be long AND flat. And looking at results in long and flat TTs, I can't find a single great / very good result on Contadors side and some of them on the side of the other riders.

Where is Cadels 50k flat tt then?

I dont care about Wiggins because I acknowledge that Wiggins is a better tter.

But you keep coming up with " I cant find a long flat tt Contador did" as if you have some major point, yet, you refuse to point to Cadels 50k flat super tt.

There is one from what will be 5 years ago by the time the Tour hits, when Contador was a pup, that Evans came 2nd in a 50k flat tt and Contador came 5th - I would see that as a very good result btw.

Since then, just like Contador, NOTHING.

You know why, because 50k long flat tts are so rare. Contador has done 2 of them since 2007. He failed both, but bare in mind that in the second one, he beat Cadel by 5 minutes.

I would point out that Cadel was injured, but since people claim Contador was fully on form when he lost to Cadel in this years tt, I dont know if thats worth mentioning

So how do you expect me to come up with a good long flat tt from Contador when he hasnt done any???

And what is so wrong with this tt

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=8645

He beats Kloeden who you claim is better, by a good 30 seconds, comes 5th, losing only 50 seconds to Levi over 50 minutes.

 

[airstream]

His "form level" may have risen but his fatigue levels would have been rising exponentially as well. I think we perhaps underestimate how hard that Giro was, yet he finished 5th. Look at the other Giro protagonists what have either Nibs or Scarponi done since?? Nibs 7th in the Vuelta with 6 weeks more recovey, Scarponi abandoned.

Personally, I've never seen Cadel in the form or fitness like he was at the Tour, it truly was his best ever year. However had Contador not been in Italy his TT form would be a mute point because he would have been far far superior in the mountains.

Cadel won the tour because he took his chances when he could, limited loses to better climbers, rode a great time trial and too advantage of the basic ineptitude of Team Frandy. Please don't be fooled into thinking that he can now win under any circumstances.

Contador is the strongest without a doubt, I just assume his advantage is not so overwelming especially as for TT, as most of the people think. I understand, you like Contador, but its really difficult to estimate how much fatigue affects on each of them on a particular day, as the days are always different. If doubly fatigued Contador took 1' 30 into just fatigued Schleck, it unnecessarily means that he could have put 3 minutes, without doing the Giro. Its not the case. There's some chance, that bad perfomance by Nibali and Scarponi just could be a simple coincidence, no? Try to get me correctly, please. Im not against Contador, if Andy doesnt ride. I just want a plot. If to reason like you, thats enough to see how Contador will win 3 GTs in one year.

 

[The Hitch]

There's some chance, that bad perfomance by Nibali and Scarponi just could be a simple coincidence, no?

No. Igor Anton said before the Vuelta that the Giro had messed him up. He came into the race as the favourite and finished 56th. Joaquim Rodriguez, came in as a favourite, finished 4th last year. Came 19th.

John Gadret pulled out of the Tour on the 2nd day. Arroyo about a week in. Kreuziger did very little. Herbert Dupont had a grand 16th place on the Galibier stage as his Tour highlight. This a man that was climbing with the heads of state in the Giro.

Only Menchov managed to get good form after the Giro. Purito did in Dauphine and Burgos too, but cracked in the Vuelta.

 

[Duartista]

No. Igor Anton said before the Vuelta that the Giro had messed him up. He came into the race as the favourite and finished 56th. Joaquim Rodriguez, came in as a favourite, finished 4th last year. Came 19th.

John Gadret pulled out of the Tour on the 2nd day. Arroyo about a week in. Kreuziger did very little. Herbert Dupont had a grand 16th place on the Galibier stage as his Tour highlight. This a man that was climbing with the heads of state in the Giro.

Only Menchov managed to get good form after the Giro. Purito did in Dauphine and Burgos too, but cracked in the Vuelta.

You are right except for Dupont. He did a lot of work dragging Roche through the Pyrenees, and in general wasn't too far off his Giro form.

 

[airstream]

No. Igor Anton said before the Vuelta that the Giro had messed him up. He came into the race as the favourite and finished 56th. Joaquim Rodriguez, came in as a favourite, finished 4th last year. Came 19th.

John Gadret pulled out of the Tour on the 2nd day. Arroyo about a week in. Kreuziger did very little. Herbert Dupont had a grand 16th place on the Galibier stage as his Tour highlight. This a man that was climbing with the heads of state in the Giro.

Only Menchov managed to get good form after the Giro. Purito did in Dauphine and Burgos too, but cracked in the Vuelta.

Huh, I see you like Contador almost not less than Samuel Sanchez. But hope, Samu is not a better TT'er than Evans, right? Purito crashed seriously. Arroyo never did the second not bad GT since 2007. Its not surprising actually. When the guys like Gadret or Kreuziger went really hard, Contador relatively rested by his standarts after the Gardeccia. Its a sign of far better class, for sure. But I agree in general.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

No. Igor Anton said before the Vuelta that the Giro had messed him up. He came into the race as the favourite and finished 56th. Joaquim Rodriguez, came in as a favourite, finished 4th last year. Came 19th.

John Gadret pulled out of the Tour on the 2nd day. Arroyo about a week in. Kreuziger did very little. Herbert Dupont had a grand 16th place on the Galibier stage as his Tour highlight. This a man that was climbing with the heads of state in the Giro.

Only Menchov managed to get good form after the Giro. Purito did in Dauphine and Burgos too, but cracked in the Vuelta.

Sure, Purito wasn't on peak form but he did lose 11 minutes due to a crash. He would have top-tenned otherwise.

 

[The Hitch]

You are right except for Dupont. He did a lot of work dragging Roche through the Pyrenees, and in general wasn't too far off his Giro form.

Yeah, i mentioned him more as a way to remember his heroics. I remember praising him during the Tour for actually having some form after his great Giro.

And come to think of it, the Galibier stage Roche was in the break, so it was 1 stage where he wouldnt have had to work for Roche, and he did rather well.

Still wasnt as good as his Giro form, but he really did come of age this year. I wouldnt be surprised to see him perform like Gadret in a future Gt.

 

[The Hitch]

Huh, I see you like Contador almost not less than Samuel Sanchez.

Whats that got to do with anything. I gave you a list of riders who underperformed after the Giro.

Didnt mention Contador nor Sanchez.

Maybe some people are so narrow minded as to change their entire opinion on the question of fatigue because they like one rider or another.

I assure you that if I was a big Andy Schleck fan I would not be changing my tune and arguing that the Giro did not hurt anyone.

I think it did for the reasons listed above. The fact that I like some riders more than others, has absolutely no impact on this reasoning.

 

[airstream]

Whats that got to do with anything. I gave you a list of riders who underperformed after the Giro.

Didnt mention Contador nor Sanchez.
Maybe some people are so narrow minded as to change their entire opinion on the question of fatigue because they like one rider or another.
I assure you that if I was a big Andy Schleck fan I would not be changing my tune and arguing that the Giro did not hurt anyone.

For sure. You're all for Contador, as I see. Sorry, if it isnt so. I cant understand you fully sometimes.
You admit, that Kreuziger, Dupont, Arroyo and Gadret went to the Tour not for GC? I dont like nor Evans, nor Contador, just try to explain how I see that TT. Contador did it perfectly, but you dont accept he is able to go worse, only better...

 

[La Pandera]

I suppose i meant that Evans has proven he can win single day races, whilst contador's sole focus is stage races. Contador is clearly a superior GC rider, but cycling isn't all Giro, Tour & Vuelta (and other stage races). They are different riders. Evans in my view can challenge in more forms of the sport.

The one season that Contador made a concerted effort to compete in the hilly classics, he was third at Fleche Wallone and skillfully setup Vino for his LBL victory. That's evidence that he can challenge in virtually every form of the sport that Evans can.

 

[La Pandera]

Joaquim Rodriguez has more victories on the climbs than Andy Schleck. Does it tend to suggest that Schleck is not a stronger climber for the TdF as well?

No but it does show that Andy Schleck doesn't show up to actually compete as often as Purito, which is quite well known. I believe between the 2 brothers, they average a little over one win each per every year of their careers.

 

[movingtarget]

Does it really matter ? Evans has always said good things about Contador especially about his climbing ability. I remember some comment he made comparing Contador to a motorbike. Contador's comments about Evans have never been as enthusiastic. Contador is always playing mindgames. Riis thinks the 2012 TDF course is a good one for Contador but Contador believes that Evans should be considered the favourite ? Evans should be considered one of the favourites next year and he has always praised the ability of Velits. That is nothing new. Most people seem to think that Evan's weak point was his psychology. A confident Evans is very hard to beat and I don't think Contador is a certainty to win next year but he deserves to be favourite on his grand tour record. Either Evans is having a bit of fun or he believes Contador won't be there ?

 

[La Pandera]

Does it really matter ? Evans has always said good things about Contador especially about his climbing ability. I remember some comment he made comparing Contador to a motorbike. Contador's comments about Evans have never been as enthusiastic. Contador is always playing mindgames. Riis thinks the 2012 TDF course is a good one for Contador but Contador believes that Evans should be considered the favourite ? Evans should be considered one of the favourites next year and he has always praised the ability of Velits. That is nothing new. Most people seem to think that Evan's weak point was his psychology. A confident Evans is very hard to beat and I don't think Contador is a certainty to win next year but he deserves to be favourite on his grand tour record. Either Evans is having a bit of fun or he believes Contador won't be there ?

Enthusiastic? That's a rather strange word to use but okay. I've found the Spanish riders, like Indurain, tend to downplay their own chances and show respect for their opponents when speaking to the media. Contador is an admirer of Indurain and like Indurain he doesn't talk up his accomplishments or his prospects denigrating his opponents. Even if he's the heavy favorite, he won't say so. It's not a mindgame. Why play mindgames when you have the biggest gun? If anything he's shown that he's mentally strong and able to handle the pressure that comes with competing as the favorite.

Edit: Regarding Evans' comments, its' already been established that Evans includes Contador as a favorite so the apparently the feeling is mutual.

 

[movingtarget]

Of course Contador is mentally strong and like other champions he hates being beaten. I think there is a healthy rivalry between the two. Contador is always polite about his rivals but his comments are very general unlike Schleck who I think is a bit more open with his thoughts which can sometimes come across as arrogance. Contador plays politics while Andy Schleck just says what he thinks. Whether this is Contador being himself or whether he just does not want to say anything controversial, I am not sure. i laughed when Contador said at the end of the TDF that "Evans was not a spectacular rider but he is consistent" or words to that effect. Schleck probably would have said that very differently !

 

[auscyclefan94]

Cadel Evans to Gazetta regarding Tirreno and Tour: "(Contador) He's a great rider, but we cannot talk about fighting... it's more a matter of saving as more energies as possible. If I will be able to get the same result as this past year it would be great."

Lets hope this stupid thread is now finished after this and the Contador fanboys can stop carrying on like idiots because their god wasn't praised by another rider.