Can Evans win this giro?

[Better Call Saul]

yes, I think it's out of question whether he can defend those two minutes (or maybe 3 after the timetrial) over an in-form Quintana. In case Quintana's injury turns out to be a real problem it could be a different story though. The "oh, I have the chance to podium a grand tour - I better try not to jeopardize it by an attack" attitude most riders are likely to show could play into his hands

I doubt that last years TdF 2nd place will be that satisfied w a giro podium. Ditto uran who already has a podium on his palmares. Pozzivivo & majka... Ok I can see them racing for 3rd.

 

[search]

I doubt that last years TdF 2nd place will be that satisfied w a giro podium. Ditto uran who already has a podium on his palmares. Pozzivivo & majka... Ok I can see them racing for 3rd.

yes, Quintana won't be, that's why I said in case his injury turns out to be a bigger problem.

Regarding Uran, there is a little question mark regarding his consistency as well, I think

 

[lenric]

It depends on what kind of performance Evan's going to do in the timetrial, because since 2011 his TT are poor.

By the way, it will be "easier" for Cadel to win this year, because neither Quintana, nor Uran have as much acceleration as Nibali has.

 

[Better Call Saul]

I doubt Evans' itt is going to gain him a lot of time on Quintana / uran. In fact I wonder if uran might just gain a few seconds.

I do however think cadel will do really well in the mtt. I see parallels w 2010 where he won iirc

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It depends on what kind of performance Evan's going to do in the timetrial, because since 2011 his TT are poor.

By the way, it will be "easier" for Cadel to win this year, because neither Quintana, nor Uran have as much acceleration as Nibali has.

Are you kidding me?

Quintana has more acceleration than Nibali. Hell, we're talking about a guy who was able to drop Froome in the 3rd week of the Tour.

Unfortunately it's questionable wether Quintana still can do that in this giro given his injuries. But... if we're talking a fit quintana, he has a way more explosive attack in him then Nibali for crying out loud

 

[The Hitch]

The other thing about last year you underestimate is how cold weather affects the riders. In the cold your muscles deplete glycogen reserves much faster. So yes maybe less climbing last year but not necessarily easier.

Yes it was easier. Significantly easier. For starters the Val Martelo stage was abandoned. There's no way you can argue not riding the stage was harder than riding it. And that was a brutal stage that even in a heatwave would have taken them into cold temperatures regardless (and will this year).

Secondly on Galibier they finished 5k earlier because of the cold. The temperature at the adjusted finish line on Galibier wasn't neccesarily that much worse than what they would have faced on a normal day at the original finish line had the race been allowed to go there.

Thirdly you are talking about loads of mountains removed. On the Galibier they not only moved the finish forward they also neutralized both Mont Cenis and its descent. IIRC they did a similar thing with Jaffreau. On Val Martelo they took out the entire stage (3 brutal mountains including Cima Coppi - now thats cold), and on the queen stage they took a 5 climb stage that rivaled Gardeccia for difficulty, and made it a 1 climb stage.

You think the cold made up for the difficulty of having 8 mountains removed from the race, another 2 shortened? I think the 5 hardest mountains in the race were all either shortened or taken out?

Lets look at the gaps then on Galibier the entire field was within 12 seconds. THats on Galibier which is rated as one of the hardest MTF's in the world. On Val Martelo they were nonexistent of course. That's 2 stages where one could expect gaps opening up quite easily, neutralized.
Because no matter how hard the snow is, riders are simply not going to lose as much time if they hit the first test of the day 8km from the finish as they will if they have to start riding hard 50k from the end. Same reason someone will lose more time over a 50k tt than a 8k prologue.

Those stages also broke up the difficulty of the gt. Galibier took place the day after a mountain stage instead they took it easy. Val Martelo was supposed to link the tt and the queen stage. Instead, rather than have multiple mountain stgaes in a row, the mountain part of the race was broken up into a few isolated days of racing sandwhiched between effective rest days.

Penultimately when Evans has cracked it has been in long mountain stages. And that's not just Evans, riders generally if they crack, it will happen when they have to ride multiple climbs, or at least long distances (like Fuente de where they rode hard for 30k rather than 5). It doesn't happen anywhere near as much on single mtfs.
And the lack of mountains also destroyed the opportunity for breakaways to form and for Cadel's (and Uran's ) rivals to attack them Lampre had Niemiec AND Scarponi within touching distance of Evans. They couldn't try anything. AG2R had Pozzovivo AND Betancur. they couldn't try anything, once the mulitple mountains which serve as opportunities to ride hard, isolate Evans, attack him, were taken out.

Finally, its going to be cold this year anyway. Stelvio is 2700m, they will probably run into some snow and 0-5 degree temperatures.

And btw the worst thing for cyclists (as this past Vuelta showed) is not so much the absolute cold (they can handle it). Its the temperature changes from hot to cold. The Vuelta last year had loads of abandons due to the cold. And yet in absolute terms those temperatures never reached anywhere near the lows of the 2013 Giro. Its becuase they were moving from heat to cold so quickly.

That was no worse last year than this year. In fact it was probably better last year when the whole race was cold, and they avoided drastic altitude changes by neutralizing parts of stages. Tomorrow its going to be 30 degrees. The next week they are going to spend more or less at sea level (with a few mtfs up to around 1000). Then on Tuesday they will go up to 2500 down to 1000, up to 2700, down to almost sea level, then up again to 2000.

Thats going to be just as much a shock to the system as last year, even if there are no golden snowflakes falling on their jerseys to emphasize it.

 

[lenric]

Are you kidding me?

Quintana has more acceleration than Nibali. Hell, we're talking about a guy who was able to drop Froome in the 3rd week of the Tour.

Unfortunately it's questionable wether Quintana still can do that in this giro given his injuries. But... if we're talking a fit quintana, he has a way more explosive attack in him then Nibali for crying out loud

Disagree. Last year Quintana dropped Froome not because of his acceleration, but because he was less tired. It's different. Nibali, Froome, Contador and possibly Majka are the ones who are better when it is required to answer strong accelerations.

 

[oncehadhair]

I really cant see evans staying in touch up the zoncalan. Looks tailor made for Pozzovivo

Not sure any of the gc contenders think that Potsy is a serious threat for overall - no-one seemed concerned when he bolted on stage 9.

 

[Jspear]

Disagree. Last year Quintana dropped Froome not because of his acceleration, but because he was less tired. It's different. Nibali, Froome, Contador and possibly Majka are the ones who are better when it is required to answer strong accelerations.

Disagree. Quintana (in form) is way more explosive than Nibali. Just go watch some different races with Quintana when he is in form, and Nibali when he is in form, you will see that Quintana is more of an "explosive" rider than Nibali.

 

[The Hitch]

Acceleration isn't even going to be relevant. The times when riders did attack crazy (Verbier, Ventoux) it was because they were just ridiculously stronger than their opponents and just playing around.

It really doesn't matter how fast your acceleration is, but how you can ride the whole climb. I can't remember anyone winning or losing because of their acceleration.

 

[Krebs cycle]

Based on what we've seen so far in this Giro, from here on in I think the key player in Cadel's chances (other than Cadel, Quintana and Uran) is Morabito. If his form is good enough to keep the pace high enough for long enough on key mtn stages, then it could make it more difficult for Quintana to attack early on the climbs, thus reducing the total available distance that he can gain time from.

Once all of the domestiques are out of the picture, then Cadel has the advantage at present. If he is able to extend his lead after the ITT, then he can take the gamble and let Uran and Quintana do the chasing of lesser favourites who make the first attacks.

 

[Afrank]

Not sure any of the gc contenders think that Potsy is a serious threat for overall - no-one seemed concerned when he bolted on stage 9.

No one was that concerned when Horner attacked to take his first iirc stage win at the Vuelta either. Not that I really expect Pozzovivo to take the top step of the podium, but I wouldn't let who the GC guys will let go be that much of a factor in determining how much a threat to GC a certain rider is.

 

[maxmartin]

Based on what we've seen so far in this Giro, from here on in I think the key player in Cadel's chances (other than Cadel, Quintana and Uran) is Morabito. If his form is good enough to keep the pace high enough for long enough on key mtn stages, then it could make it more difficult for Quintana to attack early on the climbs, thus reducing the total available distance that he can gain time from.

Once all of the domestiques are out of the picture, then Cadel has the advantage at present. If he is able to extend his lead after the ITT, then he can take the gamble and let Uran and Quintana do the chasing of lesser favourites who make the first attacks.

agree and at this point of Evan's career, he should know best how to ride defensively in the high mountains. Maybe Sanchez was also saving his best for the third week to work for Cadel.

 

[The Hitch]

No one was that concerned when Horner attacked to take his first iirc stage win at the Vuelta either. Not that I really expect Pozzovivo to take the top step of the podium, but I wouldn't let who the GC guys will let go be that much of a factor in determining how much a threat to GC a certain rider is.

That's what I said in the other thread, though it was his second one. His first stage win was up a Murito and he got a handful of seconds.

 

[Angliru]

Evans may not stay in touch on Zoncolan but if he has enough lead it will not matter. He can minimize his losses if he is strong then. Yes I know its a big if at this point in time

Evans will be stronger than last year and then he did pretty well for somebody with limited prep.

On a very scaled back Giro due to weather conditions.

 

[movingtarget]

agree and at this point of Evan's career, he should know best how to ride defensively in the high mountains. Maybe Sanchez was also saving his best for the third week to work for Cadel.

I am hoping Morabito can continue riding well into the third week but by then he will have done a lot of work and usually on the final climb it's usually team leaders only. Evans could do with a fit Sanchez in the third week. Very rare to have team mates together unless like CSC in the 2008 Tour but there is no CSC in this race. In 2011 Evans used up his team in the chases on the lower slopes of the Galibier etc and I think he will have to do the same here and then it will come down to whether he has the legs or not.

I don't see AG2R being together on the final climbs even though they will probably provide good support to Pozzovivo before that. Even if Evans gets dropped he should be able to find some allies but it all depends how well Uran and Quintana are going. If they get away together and can work together it will be very difficult for Evans. Pozzovivo looks like he could be much more involved in the final week than many expected. Kiserlovski and Majka have also done well but can they keep up in the final week ? Kiserlovski unless he has improved usually has an off day or two.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Not sure any of the gc contenders think that Potsy is a serious threat for overall - no-one seemed concerned when he bolted on stage 9.

It was not so much they didn't care about his attack, rather they thought he would be brought back once the climb flattened out in the last part. Well, Pozzo's TT power kept the gap nice and wide. Luckily.

 

[no_slipstream]

Going strong now but time will tell-will proabably go into gc freefall once Uran and Quintana turn up the screws. Think Uran is the most likely winner myself.
More likely to drop off the gc group rather than have them bolt away-at some stage of the race. A little boring compared to the 2011 Giro, though Pozzovivo lit things up for a moment, can't see Evans doing that.

 

[Von Mises]

And btw the worst thing for cyclists (as this past Vuelta showed) is not so much the absolute cold (they can handle it). Its the temperature changes from hot to cold.

And not just from hot to cold, but vice versa too. I know several riders who have talked that flying from Northern Europe in January to Tour Down Under have made their legs completley empty due to sudden temperature change.
Same applies to GT-s if they start form nothern country (like they often do with first stages) and then fly into heatwave in Italy, France or Spain).

 

[Kwibus]

Ofcourse, but I doubt he will win though.

 

[darwin553]

- BMC seem to have upped their game considerably this season.

Let's face it - it is about time that BMC have stepped up to the mark and provided a supporting entourage that is truly worthy to support Evans given the resources of the team and the stature of the rider.

 

[Potomac]

I voted Evans will come close. He'll add to his lead this Thursday but then it is all uphill from there.

I'll get my coat.

 

[Jspear]

- this year he's based his year around this race, last year he didn't

So did all the other GC riders who came here. Which means his game will still have to be upped because its not like he came to a race where he was the only one prepared.

- BMC seem to have upped their game considerably this season. They almost won the TTT without Phinney and look at the way Morabito is riding. I always think the TTT is a very good indicator of what is to come. Mostly, teams with a genuine challenger do very well or a lot better than expected

Fair enough, but the leader has to be super strong as well. BMC might be strong, but their leader has to be as well. Look at the 2012 Giro. Liguigas was extremely strong, but because their leader was very strong they only managed 5th. Bmc's depth in strength can help, but I just am doubting Evans personal strength in the upcoming mountains.

- He has a head start without really doing much

Not really true, he has done much. His team worked their tails off in the ttt, and he continued to ride very hard (especially in the last K) on stage 6.

- He hasn't crashed. That was probably true last year also but a lot of his rivals have, and crashes are never good news.

In my opinion this is the only advantage Evans has right now. We know for instance that Quintana is suffering from his injuries. The way I see it this is Evans greatest advantage (hopefully he stays upright.)

 

[oncehadhair]

No one was that concerned when Horner attacked to take his first iirc stage win at the Vuelta either. Not that I really expect Pozzovivo to take the top step of the podium, but I wouldn't let who the GC guys will let go be that much of a factor in determining how much a threat to GC a certain rider is.

Horner last year was a mistake but even I would have let him go given his form over the years.

We'll soon find out whether they were right to let Potsy go but in general the riders are in a far better position than you or I to judge current form of other riders. The GC riders under threat certainly weren't panicking or looking at each other to see who was going to chase.

And it was too close to the finish for them to assume they would run him down.

We'll know in about a week, or less if the TT results in some serious time gaps.

 

[zigmeister]

Let's face it - it is about time that BMC have stepped up to the mark and provided a supporting entourage that is truly worthy to support Evans given the resources of the team and the stature of the rider.

Mmm...what? So all that work TJ Van Garderen has done the past 3yrs for Cadel is what? Nothing?