Carlos Betancur discussion thread

[roundabout]

What's the 2014 version of Vacansoleil?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Lampre seems a good fit.

 

[Netserk]

Lampre seems a good fit.

Yeah, I think he speaks Italian too.

 

[fauniera]

IAM would fit, if they step up to WorldTour. Trek also makes sense.

Edit: Lampre would be perfect. One of my favourite riders in my favourite team.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

It's not just about which teams want him, but also which teams he wants. I'd be very surprised if he went to a team where he isn't going to be captain/protected rider for the Ardennes fx.

Well yes, it's a two way thing. Either way, he isn't going to end up on a team with a rider ahead of him in the hilly classics pecking order. That means he won't be going to Movistar, BMC, Garmin or Katusha (or wherever their leaders transfer to). It also makes it a bit tricky, but not impossible, for him to go to a team with another second tier contender like Kwiatkowski.

Still though, there are eighteen WT teams. There are a lot of them where he would be the main man for the hilly classics. Plenty of options.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Lampre seems a good fit.

There could be a bit of a clash between him and Costa for the hilly races. Certainly one isn't going to work for the other, given the personalities involved. But then again, as co captains they could actually work - Betancur likes to attack from further out, Costa likes to sit on and wait.

And crucially, leadership at a GT is also available for him there.

 

[damian13ster]

Well yes, it's a two way thing. Either way, he isn't going to end up on a team with a rider ahead of him in the hilly classics pecking order. That means he won't be going to Movistar, BMC, Garmin or Katusha (or wherever their leaders transfer to). It also makes it a bit tricky, but not impossible, for him to go to a team with another second tier contender like Kwiatkowski.

Still though, there are eighteen WT teams. There are a lot of them where he would be the main man for the hilly classics. Plenty of options.

Come on, Kwiatkowski is 2nd-3rd tier for GCs (well, unless you think that top15 contender doesnt count), but for hilly classics he is top tier. No way Betancur goes to OPQS. That teams has great chemistry and they dont need a lazy-*** rider there

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Come on, Kwiatkowski is 2nd-3rd tier for GCs (well, unless you think that top15 contender doesnt count), but for hilly classics he is top tier. No way Betancur goes to OPQS. That teams has great chemistry and they dont need a lazy-*** rider there

Kwiatkowski has about the same level of hilly classics results as Betancur, ie they are both guys just barely behind the top four favourites. The difference being that those four have won at least one of the main races and podiumed multiple times over the last few years. The best of the guys breathing down their necks, like Kwiatkowski, haven't done that. Yet.

Kwiatkowski is about sixth tier for GCs.

 

[Afrank]

Lampre and Trek would both be a good option for him. Androni as well.

Trek are looking for a GC rider to replace Andy.

 

[Netserk]

Kwiatkowski has about the same level of hilly classics results as Betancur, ie they are both guys just barely behind the top four favourites. The difference being that those four have won at least one of the main races and podiumed multiple times over the last few years. The best of the guys breathing down their necks, like Kwiatkowski, haven't done that. Yet.

Kwiatkowski is about sixth tier for GCs.

Martin has won Liège once, and a single 2nd place in FW. Other than that he hasn't podiumed the Ardennes classics.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Martin has won Liège once, and a single 2nd place in FW. Other than that he hasn't podiumed the Ardennes classics.

1st LBL, 2nd Fleche, 2nd Lombardia. There are four major hilly classics, not three. Without even bothering to wonder if he would have won LBL again this year bar that last corner crash, those are results clearly above guys like Betancur or Kwiatkowski.

Betancur and Kwiatkowski are younger than Martin, of course, but he in turn is a lot younger than Purito, Valverde and Gilbert.

 

[damian13ster]

1st LBL, 2nd Fleche, 2nd Lombardia. There are four major hilly classics, not three. Without even bothering to wonder if he would have won LBL again this year bar that last corner crash, those are results clearly above guys like Betancur or Kwiatkowski.

Betancur and Kwiatkowski are younger than Martin, of course, but he in turn is a lot younger than Purito, Valverde and Gilbert.

Top 5
In major hilly classics: Amstil Fleche LBL Lombardia Total
Kwiatkowski (24): 4,5 5,3 3 DNS Total: 5
Martin (28): 2,6,4 1,5 2,4 Total: 7
Betancur (25): 3 4 Total: 2

Now looking at those results and age, who of those 3 would you rate as 2nd tier?

Sorry for terrible editing. Dont know why it shows up that way

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

what teams will be interested in him in off-season?

Garmin/cannon, Movistar,Sky?

colombian teams like antioquia

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I don't think is a bad idea to ride the Giro either. But not after you have chickened out from the Tour. It tells you something about his personality.

he didn't chicken out of the tour. he did the same thing he did for last years vuelta except worse. not train a single day. of course you won't go back riding the tour with 20 kg overweight

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Androni .

savio doesn't want colombians

 

[jens_attacks]

any recent pics with him? i hope he can get at least two stage wins in la vuelta

 

[ILovecycling]

colombian teams like antioquia

I know,but I meant WT teams.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Lets say there are 4 spots for him to be leader: the three GTs and the Ardennes week. In my opinion, with the exception of Saxo (1 spot), all teams have room for him to fill (at least) 2 spots as undisputed leader.

It all depends on him though. The good thing is that he will run out of money again sooner rather than later.

the costs of living in colombia aren't exaclty high. with what he's made in the past few years he's set up for the rest of his life in colombia. similar to soler, contreras and many other examples

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

best option for betancurt would be trek. guercilean is one of the best trainers in the world and arredondo is one os his best friends. and the team sucks

 

[ILovecycling]

best option for betancur would be trek. guercilean is one of the best trainers in the world and arredondo is one os his best friends. and the team sucks

mollema

 

[hrotha]

the costs of living in colombia aren't exaclty high. with what he's made in the past few years he's set up for the rest of his life in colombia. similar to soler, contreras and many other examples

Betancur strikes me as the type who would keep increasing their standards of living and eating up all their money regardless of how much they earned.

(Disclaimer: this is based almost exclusively on his "fat, lazy cyclist" persona. I have no idea whether it actually applies)

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Top 5
In major hilly classics: Amstil Fleche LBL Lombardia Total
Kwiatkowski (24): 4,5 5,3 3 DNS Total: 5
Martin (28): 2,6,4 1,5 2,4 Total: 7
Betancur (25): 3 4 Total: 2

Now looking at those results and age, who of those 3 would you rate as 2nd tier?

Sorry for terrible editing. Dont know why it shows up that way

I would rate the two guys who have never finished in the top two as a tier below the rider who has done so three times and won once.

Now whether Betancur is another tier below Kwiatkowski is an arguable point. I'd put them both in the same group - that of the small number of riders who are on the cusp of a big win, have the talent and have been in the top five more than once, but this depends on where you draw some quite arbitrary lines. I rate as "top tier" the small group of riders who are automatically top favourites for these races based on at least one actual win and multiple podiums in recent years. Then as "second tier" the small group of riders who have the talent, have been close repeatedly, who are yet got those results but nobody at all would be surprised when they do. That would include both Kwiatkowski and Betancur.

You could equally reasonably be less granular and throw them all together as the "big favourites", or more granular and put Kwiatkowski in a tiny tier just above Betancur's tiny tier. But the first option I think misses an important distinction and the second gets close to simply ranking riders individually.

By the way, I think Martin is still 27.

 

[damian13ster]

I would rate the two guys who have never finished in the top two as a tier below the rider who has done so three times and won once.

Now whether Betancur is another tier below Kwiatkowski is an arguable point. I'd put them both in the same group - that of the small number of riders who are on the cusp of a big win, have the talent and have been in the top five more than once, but this depends on where you draw some quite arbitrary lines. I rate as "top tier" the small group of riders who are automatically top favourites for these races based on at least one actual win and multiple podiums in recent years. Then as "second tier" the small group of riders who have the talent, have been close repeatedly, who are yet got those results but nobody at all would be surprised when they do. That would include both Kwiatkowski and Betancur.

You could equally reasonably be less granular and throw them all together as the "big favourites", or more granular and put Kwiatkowski in a tiny tier just above Betancur's tiny tier. But the first option I think misses an important distinction and the second gets close to simply ranking riders individually.

By the way, I think Martin is still 27.

I would agree with you that Martin proved he was better in the classics, just not sure I would rate him as a bigger favorite to win AGR or Fleche over Kwiatkowski. Also, given his age he had more opportunities to win. I would still rate him much higher in Liege though

Betancur is the one that doesnt belong among those two. Worse results, older than Kwiatkowski (granted, not by much), less self-discipline and will to win. I was just responding to the point that he might go to the teams such as OPQS to be a leader in Ardennes. In Omega-Pharma he wouldnt get that role.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I would agree with you that Martin proved he was better in the classics, just not sure I would rate him as a bigger favorite to win AGR or Fleche over Kwiatkowski. Also, given his age he had more opportunities to win. I would still rate him much higher in Liege though

Betancur is the one that doesnt belong among those two. Worse results, older than Kwiatkowski (granted, not by much), less self-discipline and will to win. I was just responding to the point that he might go to the teams such as OPQS to be a leader in Ardennes. In Omega-Pharma he wouldnt get that role.

AGR I will give you. I'd certainly rather put my money on Kwiatkowski there.

I am not at all taking into account the very real possibility that Betancur's flakiness will prevent him from seriously featuring again. If we do take that into account, it's impossible to rate him. I'm talking about his ability level, if we assume all riders start with good form. I do agree that OPQS are an unlikely destination for him - who needs an unreliable potential winner in the hilly classics when you already have a reliable potential winner.

 

[Escarabajo]

Colombia's cost of living was not cheap last time I checked!

Unless they want to retire into a farm-like style of living or similar. Which I doubt these riders would do.