That's an interesting discussion (appropriate comparisons) so let's return to that
Ataraxus said:
SeriousSam said:
sir fly said:
Andalucia is the best indicator we have.
End of story.
The Dauphine 2014 Stage 2, one of the greatest races in recent memory, was a better indicator, though I agree with you that Andalucia is indicative.
IMHO: Andalucia, Dauphine 2014 (before the injury), Vuelta 2012 (first half), Vuelta 2014, The whole 2013. In that order.
The best indicator would be if both were the same percentage off their absolute peak form. ie if at some race Froome was 90% and Contador 65% then the result and any gaps that occurred would be less indicative regarding the unknown of great interest, their peak form, than if Froome was 40% and Contador 50%.
What's the argument with Andalucia being more indicative than Dauphine 2014 stages 1 and 2? And Vuelta 2012>Vuelta 2014? Here's the argument for Dauphine being the most indicative thus far:
They both had one major target last year. The Tour. Thus, as we get close to the Tour, their form converges to their peak form. Sameness in objectives and temporal closeness to the Tour means the percentage off their peak they were at that point is probably similar. Probably, but then again, in the past (eg Armstrong, Contador) and the present (eg Nibali), we saw some extreme changes in form even between the Dauphine and Tour, so even here it's hard to tell.
The argument for Vuelta 2014 being indicative is similar. Same objective (win the Vuelta), similar preparation (hampered by crashes). The complication is that Froome seems to respond very badly to crashes and injuries and that he might have been much farther off his peak as a result. Vuelta 2012 was Contador coming back from a ban and Froome arriving after having to drag Brad around France and the Olympics. Very uninformative imo.
Andalucia, being that far off their main objectives (and those being different) can only be very indicative if they both were targetting it. Which may well be the case.