Contador - last year - more risk ?

[Maxiton]

Re:

Just thinking of possible explanations for his sub-par performance.
IIRC he returned from Teide 1 week ago. Is it possible he decided to extract a bag or two at altitude, and could he still be feeling the effects of that?

Sounds like the most likely explanation. Very likely, in fact. Plus, as you mentioned earlier, he looks really gaunt.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Just thinking of possible explanations for his sub-par performance.
IIRC he returned from Teide 1 week ago. Is it possible he decided to extract a bag or two at altitude, and could he still be feeling the effects of that?

Sounds like the most likely explanation. Very likely, in fact. Plus, as you mentioned earlier, he looks really gaunt.

Yeah but the gauntness was planned

I am just looking for ways to explain his performance that still offer some hope

 

[Maxiton]

Re: Re:

Just thinking of possible explanations for his sub-par performance.
IIRC he returned from Teide 1 week ago. Is it possible he decided to extract a bag or two at altitude, and could he still be feeling the effects of that?

Sounds like the most likely explanation. Very likely, in fact. Plus, as you mentioned earlier, he looks really gaunt.

Yeah but the gauntness was planned

I am just looking for ways to explain his performance that still offer some hope

I think it's way too early to rule out hope. Hope has barely got on his bike.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

I think it's way too early to rule out hope. Hope has barely got on his bike.

 

[Maxiton]

Re: Re:

I think it's way too early to rule out hope. Hope has barely got on his bike.

Touché

 

[Escarabajo]

Blood bags for what race?

Too early.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Re:

Blood bags for what race?

Too early.

You cycle them so you're only ever depleted once in the season - at the start.

 

[Merckx index]

Re:

Just thinking of possible explanations for his sub-par performance.
IIRC he returned from Teide 1 week ago. Is it possible he decided to extract a bag or two at altitude, and could he still be feeling the effects of that?

If Contador has a good final stage at Algarve, will you delete this post and pretend you never thought this?

Contador is rich enough that, if he wants to blood dope, he doesn't have to do it the old-fashioned way, taking blood out every few weeks during the season and replacing it with a previously removed sample. He can take out all the blood he can use (which is not so much in the passport era) during the offseason, separate cells from plasma, freeze them, and use them at any time he decides during the season (presumably a TDF rest day). Indeed, his CB positive is very hard to understand if he wasn't doing it this way.

Even if he did do it the poor man's way, as DW points out, there is blood depletion only following removal of the first sample--that's the only time you don't have a previously withdrawn sample with which to replace the withdrawn blood--and he wouldn't do that shortly before any race in which he wanted to perform reasonably well. In that kind of program, the first withdrawal, again, would take place during the off-season, when the rider's weakened condition does not matter so much. It would interfere with training, but at least not with racing.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I was not suggesting that he is doing it the old fashioned way but rather that he extracted the blood (however much he wanted) while at altitude, not replacing it with anything. It made sense to me at least. He was at altitude for two-three weeks until around a week before the start of Algarve.

 

[meat puppet]

Did Bert harvest after the mtt or just does not have when the proverbial shoot hits the fan?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Did Bert harvest after the mtt or just does not have when the proverbial shoot hits the fan?

I thought he'd be extracting when at a training camp at altitude, not during a race.

 

[Semper Fidelis]

Re: Re:

Did Bert harvest after the mtt or just does not have when the proverbial shoot hits the fan?

I thought he'd be extracting when at a training camp at altitude, not during a race.

I thought the same thing. Then again maybe he is not "harvesting".

 

[Benotti69]

I think the 'programs' are different.

Nibali's Giro kind of points to it. Whatever they are taking, they have less good days where they cant keep up with others but then come back and have 'form'. Aru and Nibali have shown that.

Contador might not have fully embarced the new 'methods', he talked of so many being skinny. He has not taken the super skinny route as others have. Dan Martin looks much thinner than previous years.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

I think the 'programs' are different.

Nibali's Giro kind of points to it. Whatever they are taking, they have less good days where they cant keep up with others but then come back and have 'form'. Aru and Nibali have shown that.

Contador might not have fully embarced the new 'methods', he talked of so many being skinny. He has not taken the super skinny route as others have. Dan Martin looks much thinner than previous years.

Because he is much shorter than Froome he may not look as gangly but he's pretty skinny. Maybe he's not prepared to go the extremes as much as Froome is, but in 2014 and this year he's definitely skinnier than in earlier years of his career.
Of course at the start of his career he had less useless muscle on his chest so that's a lot of weight gain.

 

[Tonton]

Maybe we should dig up a skeleton in the Paris' catacombes and get our next French TdF winner .

 

[Semper Fidelis]

Maybe we should dig up a skeleton in the Paris' catacombes and get our next French TdF winner .

Rassss is waiting ..............well not dead but in his day he was waiting. Just saying...hmmm

 

[SeriousSam]

Contador doesn't have many opportunities left to dispel the narrative that he can't win the Tour without doping. He needs to win the Tour (without relying on chaos or crashes) to prevent that narrative from becoming a key component of his biography, at least in the English speaking world.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Contador doesn't have many opportunities left to dispel the narrative that he can't win the Tour without doping. He needs to win the Tour (without relying on chaos or crashes) to prevent that narrative from becoming a key component of his biography, at least in the English speaking world.

Great post.

Can he pull a Nibali week-3, go full-genius, fart in Froome's face and take off?

The arms race has begun. Clean Bertie will get crushed. Semi-clean Bertie will get crushed. Astana showed the way. Just do it, baby .

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Contador doesn't have many opportunities left to dispel the narrative that he can't win the Tour without doping. He needs to win the Tour (without relying on chaos or crashes) to prevent that narrative from becoming a key component of his biography, at least in the English speaking world.

Great post.

Can he pull a Nibali week-3, go full-genius, fart in Froome's face and take off?

The arms race has begun. Clean Bertie will get crushed. Semi-clean Bertie will get crushed. Astana showed the way. Just do it, baby .

If he does this hard enough it might end in Froome crashing and everyone saying AC's win isn't legit.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

Contador is probably too old school to deviate from the true and tested methods too much. He won't stand a chance, though, if he persists. Maybe yesterday's embarrassing performance will make him reconsider.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Contador is probably too old school to deviate from the true and tested methods too much. He won't stand a chance, though, if he persists. Maybe yesterday's embarrassing performance will make him reconsider.

Yes, he can try again next year he's only 33 no big deal
If he is still doing it "old school" he can't change that less than a month before the Tour.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Contador doesn't have many opportunities left to dispel the narrative that he can't win the Tour without doping. He needs to win the Tour (without relying on chaos or crashes) to prevent that narrative from becoming a key component of his biography, at least in the English speaking world.

There is absolutely no reason to put pressure on him like that. I don't care about the English speaking world and he shouldn't either. The majority of his fanbase lives in traditional cycling countries. If those July fans in English speaking countries prefer to drool over Sky and their cleanliness so be it. They'd not give a *** about Alberto's legacy or "biography" either way. Whether he wins the Tour again ir not, real fans know he is one of the greatest and that he should be appreciated (even fooking Kirby said he should be worshipped).

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Contador doesn't have many opportunities left to dispel the narrative that he can't win the Tour without doping. He needs to win the Tour (without relying on chaos or crashes) to prevent that narrative from becoming a key component of his biography, at least in the English speaking world.

Yep, for such a great rider, there has been something slightly unsatisfactory about his TdF results, especially post-ban. Even all three* of his Tour wins have been slightly underwhelming in a way. The first one he would most probably have lost had Rasmussen not been pulled. The second one was by far the most legit, but was a pretty low quality field, where his only real competition was from his own team. The third one was obviously chalked off, and had some controversial moments as well in the eyes of many fans. But, at least pre-ban you could undoubtedly say the was the GC king in the peloton.

Since his ban he hasn't come close to winning; he hasn't even come close to challenging Froome yet in the Tour, which, considering that is the majority of his GT career, makes it hard to support the claim that he is the best rider of his generation. Hopefully he can put in a decent performance, but the change in quality of performances pre-ban to post-ban suggests that he has been left behind a bit in the arms race. Or maybe Froome is just much better than Schleck and Evans.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Since his ban he hasn't come close to winning; he hasn't even come close to challenging Froome yet in the Tour, which, considering that is the majority of his GT career, makes it hard to support the claim that he is the best rider of his generation.

There are more races in the world besides the Tour. He was never the best rider of his generation simply on the merits of his TDF performances. There is a whole lot more to it.
You can argue if he is the best rider of his generation but he is definitely the best GC rider of his generation, he's earned that title over the course of his career and anything that happens now can only add to it.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Since his ban he hasn't come close to winning; he hasn't even come close to challenging Froome yet in the Tour, which, considering that is the majority of his GT career, makes it hard to support the claim that he is the best rider of his generation.

There are more races in the world besides the Tour. He was never the best rider of his generation simply on the merits of his TDF performances. There is a whole lot more to it.
You can argue if he is the best rider of his generation but he is definitely the best GC rider of his generation, he's earned that title over the course of his career and anything that happens now can only add to it.

Well, the point I was trying to make is that his career has kind of spanned two generations. The pre-ban generation; where he was undoubtedly the best, up against the likes of Schleck, Evans and Sastre. And the post-ban generation, which is obviously Froome, Quintana and Nibali. I think it is very difficult to argue that he has been the best GC rider in the world post-ban. And, if he carrys on for another two years, that will constitute the majority of his GC career.

The question is whether his opponents are just significantly better post-ban than pre-ban, or whether he has changed something himself - particularly regarding doping. Perhaps getting caught and the ban did really force him to scale back, as he doesn't want to risk his future in the sport as a DS or team owner. Or perhaps he is just past his best now and even his fully prepared best isn't good enough to destroy the field any more. If the latter is true, then there is nowhere else for him to go, but if the former is true then we still might see him go out with a bang next year to cement his legacy. I doubt he'll want to be remembered as the guy who repeatedly got destroyed by Sky and Froome in the biggest and most important race.