Contador vs. Froome

[Red Rick]

Think Froome might have one more GT in him, but it's unlikely to happen this year.

 

[Netserk]

Oh, and not counting stripped results, it's possible for Nibali to surpass both Froome and Contador after the Tour

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Think Froome might have one more GT in him, but it's unlikely to happen this year.

Here is the problem I see for Froome:
He won't win this giro, with the giro in his legs he most likely also won't win the tour.
As he will therefore probably still be just one tour away from getting the record fifth tour de france title I'm 99% sure he'll completely focus on the tour again next year. The problem for him is, he is declining so getting that fifth tour next year will be very very difficult and from the onwards it will get more and more difficult. I actually think that by 2020 Sky will bring Bernal to the tour and have him as their leader while Froome will probably go to the other two gt's (or change team). I'd therefore say he could get the 2020 Vuelta as I think he will still have quite a good level at that point and can beat the fatigued riders coming from the tour. However I do have a hard time seeing him still winning the tour de france by then. Ofc that's extremely distant future and Froome might as well return to his former self and end his career with 8 tdf titles.

 

[Pantani Attacks]

Re:

Oh, and not counting stripped results, it's possible for Nibali to surpass both Froome and Contador after the Tour

??

 

[sir fly]

Eternal question again...
While being entertaining and amusing, every calculation has to take into account that the two actually clashed numerous times and that's the only valid score.
Computing their results the way it's been suggested here may have sense if they've been riding in different eras, never having a chance to ride against each other. The presence/absence of one of the two surely affects totals.

 

[Netserk]

Oh, and not counting stripped results, it's possible for Nibali to surpass both Froome and Contador after the Tour

??

See my previous post. If Nibali wins the Tour, he'll score 3.83 from wins, while he already has 2.28 from placings (with stripped results not counted, so a 2nd place from the Giro '11). So roughly a total of 6.1 Tours.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Think Froome might have one more GT in him, but it's unlikely to happen this year.

Here is the problem I see for Froome:
He won't win this giro, with the giro in his legs he most likely also won't win the tour.
As he will therefore probably still be just one tour away from getting the record fifth tour de france title I'm 99% sure he'll completely focus on the tour again next year. The problem for him is, he is declining so getting that fifth tour next year will be very very difficult and from the onwards it will get more and more difficult. I actually think that by 2020 Sky will bring Bernal to the tour and have him as their leader while Froome will probably go to the other two gt's (or change team). I'd therefore say he could get the 2020 Vuelta as I think he will still have quite a good level at that point and can beat the fatigued riders coming from the tour. However I do have a hard time seeing him still winning the tour de france by then. Ofc that's extremely distant future and Froome might as well return to his former self and end his career with 8 tdf titles.

Yeah, I'd agree it's hard. And if you know me you know I'm hoping for it not to happen.

I was willing to write him off completely, but his performance on the Zoncolan was basically his best on a big climb since 2016. Circumstances will get harder quickly, and fresh blood at the top of GTs will kick in quickly as well.

An old generation of GT champions is bowing out rather quickly after each other, and soon Quintana will be the only mutliple GT champion from the mid 2010s left challenging. Froome is in visible decline, and Nibali will have his final crack at the Tour this year, probably followed by a last Giro and a last Vuelta attempt in 2019.

 

[dacooley]

I feel like the era related to Contador, Nibali, Froome, Valverde and Rodriguez is finally coming to the end. Yes, we still need to see Nibali in the Tour. I personally have big doubts about his pure climbing ability.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Back to SeriousSam's question of placings vs. wins and Tour vs. Giro and Vuelta; I think a rough model of 1/position for placings and 1 Tour = 1.5 Giri = 2 Vueltas for comparing the different GTs is a good start, even if I personally think it's too generous of secondary positions (2nd in the Tour would equal 1st in the Vuelta).

Contador would score 6.5 Tours from his wins (all included) and ~1 for placings (all included) for a total of roughly 7.5 Tours.

Froome would score 4.5 Tours from his wins and ~1.4 for placings for a total of roughly 5.9 Tours.

Then you could add for stage wins, days in the leader's jersey, winning margin, consecutive performances etc.

Interestingly, Froome would just beat Contador if the latter's stripped results are discounted, as long as Froome's Vuelta still stands.

For comparison, Merckx would score 8.83 Tours from his wins and ~1.4 for placings for a total of roughly 10.2 Tours.

I'd say this is somewhat reasonable, although I'd rate the Giro and Vuelta closer to the Tour. More like 1.2 Giro's and 1.5 Vuelta's. 1/n for placings is fine by me.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Re: Re:

Think Froome might have one more GT in him, but it's unlikely to happen this year.

Here is the problem I see for Froome:
He won't win this giro, with the giro in his legs he most likely also won't win the tour.
As he will therefore probably still be just one tour away from getting the record fifth tour de france title I'm 99% sure he'll completely focus on the tour again next year. The problem for him is, he is declining so getting that fifth tour next year will be very very difficult and from the onwards it will get more and more difficult. I actually think that by 2020 Sky will bring Bernal to the tour and have him as their leader while Froome will probably go to the other two gt's (or change team). I'd therefore say he could get the 2020 Vuelta as I think he will still have quite a good level at that point and can beat the fatigued riders coming from the tour. However I do have a hard time seeing him still winning the tour de france by then. Ofc that's extremely distant future and Froome might as well return to his former self and end his career with 8 tdf titles.

Agreeing with this completely. Also, unless Bernal is peaking at 21 or just unsuited for GT-s, Froomes Tour-leading days at Sky are numbered. Then he has a choice of either concentrating on Giro and Vuelta or change teams. Considering he has the record-equalling 5th Tour win in his sights, its not hard to guess which choice he makes. Whether he can retain (or regain) his GT-winning level at another team while being even deeper into his 30's and his decline, is anyone's guess.

So while with him we could (and probably should) always expect the unexpected, the odds are increasingly stacking against Froome when it comes to winning another Tour and to a lesser extent, another GT. It will happen either this or next year, or never.

 

[LaFlorecita]

In Netserk's model a 2nd place in the TDF is worth as much as a Vuelta win. I think RR's suggestion of TDF being 1.2 Giro and 1.5 Vuelta is closer to the truth, and perhaps 1/(n+1) for placings. A 2nd place is not worth half as much as a win.

 

[Netserk]

1/(n+1) would mean 2nd is 2/3 of a win. I'm not fond of it either (earlier in the thread, I suggested 1/n^2), but it was a suggestion for a simple model that would be a compromise that could be supported from those who see secondary placings as important too.

An alternative could be 1/(2n-1)

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Think Froome might have one more GT in him, but it's unlikely to happen this year.

One is maybe possible same with Nibali.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

1/(n+1) would mean 2nd is 2/3 of a win . I'm not fond of it either (earlier in the thread, I suggested 1/n^2), but it was a suggestion for a simple model that would be a compromise that could be supported from those who see secondary placings as important too.

2nd equal to 1/3, 3rd equal to 1/4, is what I was going for.

 

[Netserk]

1st equal to 1/2?

A bit weird to have 2*5th=2nd, I think.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

1st equal to 1/2?

No.....

A bit weird to have 2*5th=2nd, I think.

Maybe one 2nd is just slightly ahead of two 5th places, but I am not so sure.

 

[dacooley]

In short, anything to put Bertie in front of any other current gc rider. Sigmund Freed is somewhere around here

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

In short, anything to put Bertie in front of any other current gc rider. Sigmund Freed is somewhere around here

Totally. Not a logical consequence of a reasonable system at all.

 

[bigcog]

I think Froome wouldn't have ridden the giro and would have gone all in for the TDF this year but then his AAF occurred and it was seen as a way of at least having a crack at one GT this year should he get sanctioned. If he does ride the TDF this year I can't see him winning with this giro in his legs. He's already saying he is very tired and he came in under cooked, ok the first crash took a lot more out of him that originally thought but he will pay if he gets to ride the TDF.

 

[Angliru]

Re:

I think Froome wouldn't have ridden the giro and would have gone all in for the TDF this year but then his AAF occurred and it was seen as a way of at least having a crack at one GT this year should he get sanctioned. If he does ride the TDF this year I can't see him winning with this giro in his legs. He's already saying he is very tired and he came in under cooked, ok the first crash took a lot more out of him that originally thought but he will pay if he gets to ride the TDF.

He'll be alright. He did very little leading up to the Giro in terms of pushing himself with no results to speak of, similar to 2017's Tour/Vuelta exercise. As much as I look forward to his team failing, and this Giro has been a pleasure with the exception of the Zoncolan miracle, I still don't see anyone really challenging him at the Tour. Nibali just hasn't convinced me especially with his inability to conquer Froome when he had the Tour in his legs and Vincenzo was rested and focused on doing something to make up for his Giro failure. Unless the Movistar trio can attack Froome into submission I don't see anyone else capable of issuing a challenge, except of course for the pending case against him.

 

[bigcog]

Re: Re:

I think Froome wouldn't have ridden the giro and would have gone all in for the TDF this year but then his AAF occurred and it was seen as a way of at least having a crack at one GT this year should he get sanctioned. If he does ride the TDF this year I can't see him winning with this giro in his legs. He's already saying he is very tired and he came in under cooked, ok the first crash took a lot more out of him that originally thought but he will pay if he gets to ride the TDF.

He'll be alright. He did very little leading up to the Giro in terms of pushing himself with no results to speak of, similar to 2017's Tour/Vuelta exercise. As much as a look forward to his team failing, and this Giro has been a pleasure with the exception of the Zoncolan miracle, I still don't see anyone really challenging him at the Tour. Nibali just hasn't convinced me especially with his inability to conquer Froome when he had the Tour in his legs and Vincenzo was rested and focused on doing something to make up for his Giro failure. Unless the Movistar trio can attack Froome into submission I don't see anyone else capable of issuing a challenge, except of course for the pending case against him.

I hope he rides the TDF just to see how he fairs. I agree I can see Movistar giving him a tough time if he does and maybe the other Yates brother lol.

 

[Red Rick]

This Giro is gonna take more out of Froome than the Tour of 2017 did.

For Nibali it's hard to estimate him cause I think in the Giro he struggled with not racing in the 2nd half of 2016, while the Vuelta doesn't suit him at all.

I think Nibali in the 2018 Tour probably has the widest range of scenarios I've ever seen from a GT favorite.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

This Giro is gonna take more out of Froome than the Tour of 2017 did.

For Nibali it's hard to estimate him cause I think in the Giro he struggled with not racing in the 2nd half of 2016, while the Vuelta doesn't suit him at all.

I think Nibali in the 2018 Tour probably has the widest range of scenarios I've ever seen from a GT favorite.

I also think that Nibali's all-round skillset suits the Tour the best. Vuelta is all about climbing, the Giro less so, but the Tour is just different. The flat stages in the north are different (can be at least), the wind, the cobbles... overall, this Tour suits Nibali extremely well IMO. The mountain stages are all pretty tough and the first 9 days will have its consequences on some of the lighter dudes.

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

I think Froome wouldn't have ridden the giro and would have gone all in for the TDF this year but then his AAF occurred and it was seen as a way of at least having a crack at one GT this year should he get sanctioned. If he does ride the TDF this year I can't see him winning with this giro in his legs. He's already saying he is very tired and he came in under cooked, ok the first crash took a lot more out of him that originally thought but he will pay if he gets to ride the TDF.

He'll be alright. He did very little leading up to the Giro in terms of pushing himself with no results to speak of, similar to 2017's Tour/Vuelta exercise. As much as I look forward to his team failing, and this Giro has been a pleasure with the exception of the Zoncolan miracle, I still don't see anyone really challenging him at the Tour. Nibali just hasn't convinced me especially with his inability to conquer Froome when he had the Tour in his legs and Vincenzo was rested and focused on doing something to make up for his Giro failure. Unless the Movistar trio can attack Froome into submission I don't see anyone else capable of issuing a challenge, except of course for the pending case against him.

Porte, Bardet and Uran will give him more trouble than Nibali. Though I think the fun part will be seeing Landa vs Quintana, could be shades of Wiggo/Froome 2012 or Contador/Armstrong 2009

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Re: Re:

I think Froome wouldn't have ridden the giro and would have gone all in for the TDF this year but then his AAF occurred and it was seen as a way of at least having a crack at one GT this year should he get sanctioned. If he does ride the TDF this year I can't see him winning with this giro in his legs. He's already saying he is very tired and he came in under cooked, ok the first crash took a lot more out of him that originally thought but he will pay if he gets to ride the TDF.

He'll be alright. He did very little leading up to the Giro in terms of pushing himself with no results to speak of, similar to 2017's Tour/Vuelta exercise. As much as I look forward to his team failing, and this Giro has been a pleasure with the exception of the Zoncolan miracle, I still don't see anyone really challenging him at the Tour. Nibali just hasn't convinced me especially with his inability to conquer Froome when he had the Tour in his legs and Vincenzo was rested and focused on doing something to make up for his Giro failure. Unless the Movistar trio can attack Froome into submission I don't see anyone else capable of issuing a challenge, except of course for the pending case against him.

Porte, Bardet and Uran will give him more trouble than Nibali. Though I think the fun part will be seeing Landa vs Quintana, could be shades of Wiggo/Froome 2012 or Contador/Armstrong 2009

IMO, Nibali is the better bet to win, but Bardet, Porte, and Uran are better bets to podium. Nibali has higher proven 3-week GT top level but also wildly inconsistent and a 5th place finish would be perhaps more likely than a 2nd, similarly to Contador in the past. Quintana is a pretty safe bet for any podium spot, IMO, last year's post-Giro Tour being an outlier. Porte more similar to Nibali only with luck and circumstance preventing the potential from manifesting in podium performances.

Also, more on track with this thread, 9/7/3/2 > 5/4/4, though I am unsure about peak Contador vs. peak Froome. I will still not be shocked if Yates suffers a 3rd week decline, Dumo has a bad day, and Froome somehow wins, then ekes out a Tour win by attrition/smart riding, in which case 7/5/5 would be superior in my book.