Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Chris Gadsden]

I understand and agree with Merckx's points,but I dismiss most of the premise about education leading t to where we are at now. An example this week..Peter Navarro is an economic advisor within the US White House staff, surprisingly dependent on your point of view, Navarro was one of the initial US government personal to do an assessment on a wide variety of details of Covid 19.
So your education about the pandemic maybe coming from people in positions of authority but no expertise. And there we have the tug of war for valid information,science based,not science fiction. Reality or another type of TV star would normally defer to medical and scientific professionals in matters of grave,life or death importance. But currently those giving and those receiving information from non science types are not only not alarmed,but look to relish the competition of competing data. A scientist \ doctor tells you of dire forecast and dead bodies,a multitude of eye witnesses warn about the virus.
One group listens and the other laughs it off.
The problem with this type of education derived from non medical people is that even a small minority of followers of falsehood will keep all of us sick for months if not years to come..
We as a planet are nowhere close to herd immunity. And the dynamic of encouraged bad behavior because a rapidly available vaccine is imminent..is plain crazy from a world medical historical perspective.
Probably best example..the deadliest..there still is no vaccine for the AIDS virus..and not for lack of trying.
I think American behavior about AIDS being a predictor of our course on Covid, we are going to be at this for a while

Navarro has a Phd in economics from Harvard. He’s not an epidemiologist or virologist. He has an opinion.

Navarro’s op-ed was a dumb move. It’s safe to say, with this virus, even Fauci hasn’t always been great with his advice.

Wrt your herd immunity observation... what exactly happened in New York and New Jersey? Why do you think the new infection rates there seem very low compared to States that did so well early on? Florida, Texas, California?

 

[yaco]

Cases significantly going up in Hong Kong - much worse than back in the spring. Since this is a culture with a high mask compliance (a "masked metropolis" as they're known), what other factors could be involved here with the spreading of the virus?

Hong Kong coronavirus epidemic "at worst time" as new cases rising

Hong Kong's coronavirus epidemic is at its worst phase as infections in recent days have spread across the community, a health official said Saturday, with 29 new cases being reported.

english.kyodonews.net

"The epidemic is at its worst, as compared with (the previous surge of cases in) March," Chuang Shuk-kwan, head of the Communicable Disease Branch of the Center for Health Protection, told a press briefing."

"The epidemic had yet to spread into the community in March, now there are more people infected, like taxi drivers, public estates residents, even schools and an elderly home," Chuang said."

"We are in the midst of a community outbreak, which could get worse if we do not tighten up infection control measures," she said."

Also, this developing story is very interesting:

View: https://youtu.be/7voTUuVT5i4

Well I live in HK - My take is unless you are incompetent like some countries have proven to be, then there is an element of luck in terms of community transmission spreading rapidly - As we know with this virus because of large number of asymptomatic cases it can spread silently until a person suffers symptoms and is then tested.

Some pertinent points

• Hong Kong never tested enough only averaging 6000 tests per day
• Restrictions have never been as hard and as long as in other countries
• Wearing of masks which averages 97% is misleading - Yes, nearly all wear masks for show when out and about, but not many wear them in their workplaces, which of course can be high risk transmission areas
• Arrival of sea crew and airline crew who had an exemption from testing - They started testing this cohort just over a week ago and have found 15 to 20 who are positive . There is a thought this group seeded the latest outbreak. Will add, i find it staggering that this cohort of employers would not test their staff before they enter the borders of another country
• So far, HK has been effective in tracing, testing and quarantining contacts of infected people. Prior to the last week it had been nearly all identified clusters but the last week has seen many unidentified cases
• Restrictions have been tightened in the last few days and more are likely in the week, though have never reached the strict lockdown of other places.
• General observation is the community seemed more stressed about SARS than COVID19
• Finally if you track the mobility ratings of countries, you'll find that during lockdowns most places had a reduction of 80 to 90%, while HK never got below 50%.

Edit ; Forgot to mention that a HK resident must provide a negative COVID19 test within 72 hrs of their flight to re-enter HK.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Here is an interesting thread about some of the unanswered questions about sending children back to school. The devil is in the details. The one that is going to be problematic is finding substitutes for any absences. I have seen the same issue with adjunct postings for colleges around here. It is just not enough pay for most to take the risks required to do the job.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1283410602925400065

View: https://twitter.com/mileskahn/status/1283410602925400065

Yep. Teachers aren’t going back until at least a vaccine.

Did you happen to read the UTLA manifesto I posted upthread? Even a vaccine won’t be nearly enough in their case.

Let’s pretend for a moment COVID is around w/o a working vaccine for, say, 5 years. Now what? All of those question in the thread you posted will still be valid.

 

[djpbaltimore]

The subtext to that thread is that those questions have been answered in many places. I think the likely course of events is that the teachers are not being informed of these decisions because they are deeply unpopular. These and other major decisions will be kept in the dark until a week before class begins to try to create a fait accompli. Most will return because they have bills to pay. The mass early retirements might be more difficult to cover, which is one reason why many large districts are opting for more remote learning. They know who has the whip hand.

We should be doing more contingency planning for the worst possible outcomes in general. I don't think we are though. At least not in a meaningful sense. Too much magical thinking.

 

[Keram]

Florida representative says his state is doing fine, the number of deaths is no big deal, says he doesn't wear a mask in public. Says masks should not be mandated. When asked to compare them with seat belts, he replies that driving a car is potentially a dangerous situation, so the state has an interest in reducing the danger.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KlxT9RNfcs


But there's more...no, I am not making this up. Talk show Rush Limbaugh suggests that America will have to "adapt" to living with the virus. As an analogy, he references the Donner party, a group of 19th century settlers who were trying to get to California. They got stuck in the mountains in the dead of winter, and to survive, they ate the corpses of the members who died. He says there was nothing they could do, they had to suck it up, and in the same way, there's nothing we can do about the virus, and we have to suck it up.

Well everything is fine then. Sick people could act like Barney

View: https://youtu.be/pDMUsvQwau0

 

[djpbaltimore]

This is not ironclad by any stretch of the imagination, but I have long thought that one benefit to masks is that it lowers the dose of virus you receive. That might not prevent infection outright, but what if it lowers the severity of disease?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1283925161801121792

View: https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1283925161801121792

 

[Unchained]

My own personal opinion is that teachers and students should return to the classroom. Testing,possibly daily is and always was the answer.
The U.S.forecast to make 1 million tests a month will be far short of what is needed even if the lofty goal is achieved.
I also believe that safe zones may sound overreaching but there is no reason that segments of society can't be completely open to people with a recent negative test result. I am thinking college campuses and commercial space. If employees and shoppers all have recent tests,there looks to be little reason why they cannot intermingle w great care.
The current U.S. fight about the constitutional fight to spread the virus as a right of citizenship doesn't look to be able to ever be resolved. As a country we should move on,as in a theme park,you need to be this tall to ride..or similar to a drivers license,if you don't have one you cannot participate.
I think mandatory. health ID's could be a temporary solution for the next couple of years.
If our operation mode is one of unfortunate, mystery and just complete disregard for one another 's health status,we are going to require additional bubble definition,those who care,and those who don't..
There are a few substantial differences in the American legal system than in every other part of the world,legal shielding from liability for the outcomes of Covid-19 infections are not in place. Getting sick because of negligence on behalf of business and private citizens will surely be explored from accidental to recorded acts of people spitting on another,or wiping their nose on a person or their clothes as an intentional transfer of human matter.
If not agreeing on agreeing to protect one another is accepted,we need to move on an make a much more intentional divide,maybe down to checking ID's in parking lots..parking for both groups,separate stores,services and schools,parks..at this point,@6 months in,I assume that a person approaching me without a mask is trying to harm me and my family.

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CH91AVrcEFg

 

[jmdirt]

My own personal opinion is that teachers and students should return to the classroom. Testing,possibly daily is and always was the answer.
The U.S.forecast to make 1 million tests a month will be far short of what is needed even if the lofty goal is achieved.
I also believe that safe zones may sound overreaching but there is no reason that segments of society can't be completely open to people with a recent negative test result. I am thinking college campuses and commercial space. If employees and shoppers all have recent tests,there looks to be little reason why they cannot intermingle w great care.
The current U.S. fight about the constitutional fight to spread the virus as a right of citizenship doesn't look to be able to ever be resolved. As a country we should move on,as in a theme park,you need to be this tall to ride..or similar to a drivers license,if you don't have one you cannot participate.
I think mandatory. health ID's could be a temporary solution for the next couple of years.
If our operation mode is one of unfortunate, mystery and just complete disregard for one another 's health status,we are going to require additional bubble definition,those who care,and those who don't..
There are a few substantial differences in the American legal system than in every other part of the world,legal shielding from liability for the outcomes of Covid-19 infections are not in place. Getting sick because of negligence on behalf of business and private citizens will surely be explored from accidental to recorded acts of people spitting on another,or wiping their nose on a person or their clothes as an intentional transfer of human matter.
If not agreeing on agreeing to protect one another is accepted,we need to move on an make a much more intentional divide,maybe down to checking ID's in parking lots..parking for both groups,separate stores,services and schools,parks..at this point,@6 months in,I assume that a person approaching me without a mask is trying to harm me and my family.

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CH91AVrcEFg

The problem with testing daily is that the results won't come back for 4-18 days so the results are pretty much useless. September 28: Johnny tested positive for C19...on September 10...he has since infected other kids...who will have their test results spread out until the middle of October...while infecting others...don't worry about the dying teachers and lunch ladies...grandma wasn't that far from death anyway...

As you know from my previous post, returning to school based on the status of C19 today (USA) is not an option IMO.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I am really curious how the pro sports leagues are going to keep getting expedited tests once they are up and running. There was already issues with turnaround times for some of the baseball tests. Money can work wonders, but the demand for tests keeps going up and up across the nation.

 

[Oldermanish]

Well everything is fine then. Sick people could act like Barney

View: https://youtu.be/pDMUsvQwau0

I watched this interview and couldn't believe how much BS this guy could blurt out and then not actually answer a definitive question about mask efficacy or other protocols. He was, however, absolutely certain that Florida is doing great and everything should be open including schools full of kids.

 

[Koronin]

There are the new 15 minute tests that are done on machines similar to what doctor offices use for the flu shot and strep throat. There seems to be a low false negative with those and a higher false positive. With those if you test positive they want you to get the regular test, if you test negative it seems to be accepted.

 

[jmdirt]

There are the new 15 minute tests that are done on machines similar to what doctor offices use for the flu shot and strep throat. There seems to be a low false negative with those and a higher false positive. With those if you test positive they want you to get the regular test, if you test negative it seems to be accepted.

But who has these machines? Not school nurses.

 

[Koronin]

But who has these machines? Not school nurses.

I know doctor's offices do, as our does. They gave my husband one today. So he's now had 3 of these tests (all negative). He's got major sinus drainage into his chest that just won't stop. I wouldn't be shocked if some if not all sports teams have them for the medical staff or at least the leagues themselves.

 

[Oldermanish]

Yep. Teachers aren’t going back until at least a vaccine.

Did you happen to read the UTLA manifesto I posted upthread? Even a vaccine won’t be nearly enough in their case.

Let’s pretend for a moment COVID is around w/o a working vaccine for, say, 5 years. Now what? All of those question in the thread you posted will still be valid.

Just announced: The White House will not allow the CDC to provide data to the public on C19, as they have been collecting and disclosing. Also denying the CDC to provide a spokesperson as requested by the House of Representatives committee on....school reopening. This follows discrediting the WHO, CDC, Fauci and any State of the Union that has mask or safety protocols.
Why is that?
Seems like all of this information is good for reasoned decisions by all parents.

And this update from a re-tweeted WH source:

Former Game Show Host Who Claimed 'Everyone Is Lying' About COVID-19 Deletes Twitter After Son Contracts It
Gabrielle Chung 1 hr ago

Former Game Show Host Who Claimed 'Everyone Is Lying' About COVID-19 Deletes Twitter After Son Contracts It

Former game show host Chuck Woolery, who claimed on Twitter earlier this week that people are "lying" about the novel coronavirus, has deleted his account on the social media platform after announcing that his son contracted COVID-19.

© Provided by People Chuck Woolery
Woolery, 79, first gained online attention on Sunday when President Donald Trump retweeted his tweet about "outrageous lies" surrounding coronavirus.

In a tweet that lives on digital archive websites, the former Wheel of Fortune host wrote: "The most outrageous lies are the ones about Covid 19. Everyone is lying. The CDC, Media, Democrats, our Doctors, not all but most ,that we are told to trust. I think it's all about the election and keeping the economy from coming back, which is about the election. I'm sick of it."

Days after the claim, Woolery revealed that his son had been diagnosed with coronavirus, tweeting on Wednesday, "To further clarify and add perspective, Covid-19 is real and it is here."

"My son tested positive for the virus, and I feel for of those suffering and especially for those who have lost loved ones," he said in a tweet, which was cached on an archival site.

RELATED: Celebrities Open Up About Their Coronavirus Symptoms: 'I Deteriorated'

A spokesperson for Woolery told CNN that the musician deactivated his account on Wednesday as he's "taking a break from the abuse he has received from thousands of intolerant people who purposefully mislead people on his statement, including the media."

 

[Koronin]

Looks like Australian scientists have developed a Covid blood test that takes about 20 minutes.

Australian researchers invent 20-minute coronavirus blood test

Researchers in Australia have devised a test that can determine novel coronavirus infection in about 20 minutes using blood samples in what they say is a world-first breakthrough. The researchers at Monash University said their test can determine if someone is currently infected and if they have...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Merckx index]

In my response to jmdirt about vaccines, I might have noted that many of them use the same principles used for gene therapy, and relevant to the Clinic, gene doping. In all cases, the idea is to insert a gene that codes for a protein of interest. In the case of a vaccine, the protein is part of a virus or some other foreign disease-causing entity, whereas in gene therapy and gene doping, the protein is an enzyme or hormone that is endogenous to the body (e..g., EPO). In principle, a foreign protein or peptide will be recognized by the immune system and destroyed, whereas an endogenous one will increase the effect of whatever that substances does in the body.

So in addition to the history of vaccinations, newer work in gene therapy also contributes to our estimate of benefits and risks. The entire field of gene therapy was set back about twenty years ago when a young man died from an experimental treatment. It's rebounded since, but it is potentially more dangerous than vaccination, since the protein made may have multiple unintended effects in the body. As I said earlier, this is a potential problem with vaccines designed around the spike protein (and almost all of them are), because this protein could act pseudo-naturally in the body as an antagonist, or blocker, of a vital enzyme in the body.

there still is no vaccine for the AIDS virus..and not for lack of trying.

HIV is very unusual, though, in that it hides within cells, where it's not accessible to the immune system--and even worse, it actually attacks immune cells. That's not to say that developing a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 is a certainty, but it doesn't pose quite the problems that HIV does.

Also, this developing story is very interesting:

The scientist from HK really hasn't said anything new, though. Her main charge was that China covered up the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, something that has been thoroughly documented before, and which we dicussed at length upthread (before the thread was shut down because of too much political talk). AFAIK, she hasn't said anything about what China did or didn't do later, such as perhaps under-report cases or deaths. That would be really important information. I don't understand why she has revealed her identity now, since the message she has is not at all urgent. It's too late to go back and change what happened.

Because pushing the schools to open is wholly different wrt COVID than pushing the protests and rioting.

What in the world does the one have to do with the other? I've already said I largely agree with you about the protests, but they aren't comparable to school, in which kids are kept together indoors for hours every day.

what exactly happened in New York and New Jersey? Why do you think the new infection rates there seem very low compared to States that did so well early on?

If you're implying the high rates of infection might have reduced the probability of spread, yes, I suggested this upthread. It could very well be a contributing factor. i'd also guess that after living through all the news about deaths, people in those areas have become much more cautious than people in parts of the country that were relatively less affected in March and April. But the states have also followed the guidelines that many other states haven't followed, particularly, seeing a continuous decline in new cases over a period of time before opening up.

[

 

[jmdirt]

Just announced: The White House will not allow the CDC to provide data to the public on C19, as they have been collecting and disclosing. Also denying the CDC to provide a spokesperson as requested by the House of Representatives committee on....school reopening. This follows discrediting the WHO, CDC, Fauci and any State of the Union that has mask or safety protocols.
Why is that?
Seems like all of this information is good for reasoned decisions by all parents.

And this update from a re-tweeted WH source:
Former Game Show Host Who Claimed 'Everyone Is Lying' About COVID-19 Deletes Twitter After Son Contracts It
Gabrielle Chung 1 hr ago

Former Game Show Host Who Claimed 'Everyone Is Lying' About COVID-19 Deletes Twitter After Son Contracts It

Former game show host Chuck Woolery, who claimed on Twitter earlier this week that people are "lying" about the novel coronavirus, has deleted his account on the social media platform after announcing that his son contracted COVID-19.

© Provided by People Chuck Woolery
Woolery, 79, first gained online attention on Sunday when President Donald Trump retweeted his tweet about "outrageous lies" surrounding coronavirus.

In a tweet that lives on digital archive websites, the former Wheel of Fortune host wrote: "The most outrageous lies are the ones about Covid 19. Everyone is lying. The CDC, Media, Democrats, our Doctors, not all but most ,that we are told to trust. I think it's all about the election and keeping the economy from coming back, which is about the election. I'm sick of it."

Days after the claim, Woolery revealed that his son had been diagnosed with coronavirus, tweeting on Wednesday, "To further clarify and add perspective, Covid-19 is real and it is here."

"My son tested positive for the virus, and I feel for of those suffering and especially for those who have lost loved ones," he said in a tweet, which was cached on an archival site.

RELATED: Celebrities Open Up About Their Coronavirus Symptoms: 'I Deteriorated'

A spokesperson for Woolery told CNN that the musician deactivated his account on Wednesday as he's "taking a break from the abuse he has received from thousands of intolerant people who purposefully mislead people on his statement, including the media."

The WH must to hide the numbers. Citizens should be outraged. Without numbers its much easier to downplay what is actually happening.

 

[Oldermanish]

The WH must to hide the numbers. Citizens should be outraged. Without numbers its much easier to downplay what is actually happening.

Let's hope the major stakeholders like scientists, medical professionals and teachers remain focused on real issues enough to get citizens informed.
Mr. Woolery was used via re-tweeting his now-retracted position. Hopefully all that hoped to use his perspective for their own views have extended well wishes for his son's recovery and his health. And then they can look in the mirror.

 

[Koronin]

HIV is very unusual, though, in that it hides within cells, where it's not accessible to the immune system--and even worse, it actually attacks immune cells. That's not to say that developing a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 is a certainty, but it doesn't pose quite the problems that HIV does.

That almost sounds like you'd have to be able to develop a vaccine for an autoimmune disease.

 

[Merckx index]

Looks like Australian scientists have developed a Covid blood test that takes about 20 minutes.

Based on agglutination of blood cells. I would think there would be a lot of false negatives. I don't think the virus does that in all patients, particularly those with mild symptoms. There could also be false positives, since other factors could have the same effect.

The link also notes that the effect is observed in people who aren't currently infected. That might make it a useful complement to antibody studies, but by the same token, it would make it less useful as a test of people who are currently infected, which is the primary need for a rapid test. If people who are no longer infected test positive, that greatly complicates the task of isolation and contact tracing.

 

[Unchained]

A 20 minute blood test that the US can buy from Australia will save America!! Brilliant!!

 

[yaco]

A 20 minute blood test that the US can buy from Australia will save America!! Brilliant!!

Nah - Nothing can save America from America - Any good idea is nearly certain to be rejected by the administration and its people - After all according to the American's on this forum the waiting time for results from a COVID19 test is routinely more than a week.

 

[Merckx index]

I liked this interview with Bill Gates:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmQWOPDqxWA&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR2fZot8wO-2EKSdbdmkfbfl1gGgEzh99V7M_WJZczU2JlAaapYbZs1uWcU


He tells it like it is! When asked about masks, he said, "We made a mistake." None of this, we were afraid there would be a shortage for medical personnel, which is true, but not the whole story. The whole story (which he doesn't get into, but is clearly aware of) involves the fact that there has been a lot of controversy over how the virus is transmitted, which reflects on the utility of masks. Plus it's much harder to do studies of how mask wearing may protect others, as opposed to protecting the self.

He names the three vaccines that are closest to phase 3 trials, but doubts very much that any vaccine will be ready by the end of the year. He points out that the U.S. has produced by far the most research relevant to making a vaccine, and that in the past it always led the way to developing new vaccines.

I forgot that while he hasn't had formal training in these fields, because of his long-time work with third world medical issues, he is connected to the best minds in these fields.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

What in the world does the one have to do with the other?

If conservatives are going hasten the demise of their world view by educating kids then its fair to say liberals are doing something similar in supporting the protest/riots/history revisionism and the near anarchy we are seeing in some big cities today.

But the states have also followed the guidelines that many other states haven't followed, particularly, seeing a continuous decline in new cases over a period of time before opening up.

I think it‘s pretty clear States like NY were not good following guidelines early on. Just look at the numbers. But they have likely achieved or nearly achieved some sort of herd immunity and I would imagine that helps with their infection rates now. States like California were probably better following orders early on... and we will probably see fewer dead but infection rates are going to be a big problem here for far longer. The strategy probably only works if there‘s effective therapies and or vaccines developed sooner rather than later.

 

[djpbaltimore]

A thread with a lot of interesting data comparing NY to the sunbelt. Having 20% of the population with some degree of immunity will help suppress some of the spread, but it is clear that the people were being a lot more cautious since April. It also shows that the outbreak in the South is close to cresting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1284255564545982464

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1284255564545982464