Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[djpbaltimore]

Speaking of vaccines, the optimism surrounding this trial seems very legit. There has been a genuine buzz about this one for the last couple weeks in virology/ epidemiology circles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1285210865902342147

View: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1285210865902342147


If this ultimately fails, the answer is ramping up production of surgical grade or higher masks for public use. There is not much indication that this is happening to the degree necessary here. I don't know about other countries. They would protect against aerosols, although as I have said here before, the distinction between particle size is overplayed IMO. If aerosols are infectious, so are droplets. It should not effect what people are doing as the prevention strategies overlap to a degree. New Zealand beat COVID-19 without a vaccine. It is manageable if the will is there.

 

[jmdirt]

i was on a sports chat today and I was appalled by the level of ignorance and the misinformation that was being peddled. It seems that some people still think it's a hoax ! A summary of some of the comments : hospitals are inflating their figures, it's like a cold, the flu is worse, masks don't work, it's fake news, the NBA and NFL is more important, I don't know anyone who has died, AIDS was a hoax as well, only old people die from it, they aren't fooling me, it's an elitist conspiracy, naive fools are going to ruin the economy for no reason and so on...........some of the many I remember ..............many were much worse............

I just don't understand the hoax/conspiracy theory thinking. The idea that you could get USA medical, political (mostly) on board for a fake is insane, let alone basically the entire world of medical/political. Even if "its not a bad as they're making it out to be", 150,000 have died in four months in the USA. Ignorance is bliss I guess.

Why don't the extremest see that their boys like Mitch recognize the seriousness? Is that part of the elitist conspiracy? Why is he one of their boys then?

EDIT: "masks don't work". Obviously I've been the mask ranter on here for quite some time, but let's take it out of C19 context for a second: when I sand wood I wear a little dust mask, when I have to go into my asbestos filled attic I wear a TC mask/respirator. A mask keeps stuff out of my nose/sinuses/lungs. I didn't need C19 to tell me that masks work. The thing with C19 is that if we are asymptomatic, we want to keep as much of it in as possible so we wear a mask to protect others with the bonus that it might also help us a little too. If everyone is wearing a mask there will be a lot less C19 in the air.

 

[djpbaltimore]

The surgeon general was on a cable news network this morning pleading with people to just wear masks. Of course, the same audience likely heard just last week a cardiologist on one of the most watched prime time cable news shows claim that COVID-19 is spread by the fecal-oral route and masks are not effective. Francis Collins, head of the NIH, was on Meet the Press yesterday and was very outspoken about the need to wear masks. You would think he understands the science on this point better than almost anyone on this planet, but people are going to hear what they want to hear.

 

[Nomad]

i was on a sports chat today and I was appalled by the level of ignorance and the misinformation that was being peddled. It seems that some people still think it's a hoax ! A summary of some of the comments : hospitals are inflating their figures, it's like a cold, the flu is worse, masks don't work, it's fake news, the NBA and NFL is more important, I don't know anyone who has died, AIDS was a hoax as well, only old people die from it, they aren't fooling me, it's an elitist conspiracy, naive fools are going to ruin the economy for no reason and so on...........some of the many I remember ..............many were much worse............

Maybe not the hospitals but the CDC. Thee Dr. Birx says the CDC is "inflating" covid deaths by up to "25%," and "there is nothing from the CDC that I can trust."

Horowitz: Bombshell report: Dr. Birx believes the CDC is inflating death numbers by as much as 25% - NewsBreak

Why is it that long past the peak of the virus, the number of deaths continues to skyrocket beyond what the revised government models predicted?. On Saturday, the Washington Post reported that Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House Coronavirus Task Force response administrator, is accusing the CDC of...

www.newsbreak.com

Dr. Deborah Birx said 'there is nothing from the CDC that I can trust' in a White House coronavirus task force meeting

Birx and others feared that the CDC's tracking system was providing inaccurate data on coronavirus deaths and cases, The Washington Post reported.

www.google.com

And in this particular case the family says their loved one died of complications from Alzheimers and not Covid as was listed on the death certificate:

oklahoman.com: Local News, Politics & Sports in Oklahoma City, OK

Get the latest breaking news, sports, entertainment and obituaries in Oklahoma City, OK from oklahoman.com.

www.google.com

Getting back to Birx: She's an icon on the WH task force - when she speaks people listen. "25%" is a significant number. And "nothing" she can trust from the CDC means the agency is not credible - at least that's how I interpret it.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Nomad, the estimated death toll based on all cause mortality stats is more like 200,000 already. Birx has lost most of her credibility over the last couple months and her rosy thinking has not aged well at all. She is where she is because she has told people what they wanted to hear IMO.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1284500758222839809

View: https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1284500758222839809

 

[Nomad]

This article is not that groundbreaking, what is amazing, is that it is on Fox News! If Fox gets behind mask use, the self absorbed, anti-science, low IQ crowd will only have the voices in their heads to listen to (LI, SH, TC, RL are the voices in some masengill's heads though).

https://www.foxnews.com/health/wearing-mask-cuts-own-risk-novel-coronavirus-65-percent-experts-say

Well...I confess that I watch "Fox News" most of the time (occasionally some CNN) - so I guess I'm part of that "low IQ crowd?" (they say that some of us former college football players have low IQs - so maybe that is my problem in the first place. Lol). I hope I don't get tarred & feathered here...maybe I should have kept my mouth shut.

Seriously, it's good to see Fox News put that article on. Though they were never anti-mask per se, they never talked about the issue much. A few weeks ago, they had Judge Napolitano on talking about the constitutionality of mask mandates - but that was about it.

I wouldn't say they're anti-science either. They have their own set of medical advisors that discuss a wide variety of subjects. They don't have many field reporters at hospital hot spots compared to CNN which reports on that daily. But let's face it; it's about ratings and appealing to their base. Fox News is now owned by Disney (previously owned by Murdoch, who supports the Republican party). Disney is owned by Chepek. Fox News is basically the platform for the Republican party and naturally is going to be anti-Left...nothing new there. Interestingly, they continue to have the highest cable news ratings with "Tucker Carlson" having the highest-rating program in cable news history.

Their rival, CNN, is owned by Turner who endorsed Hillary. Their platform is obviously for the Democrats which again is nothing new. Their ratings have skyrocketed during this pandemic- up 117% from last year! (they were on life-support last year at this time). They also have their own team of medical experts and spend a significantly amount time on coronavirus reports. So, it's really about ratings and $$$ between the networks and appealing to their base...I think you understand that.

Interesting article here on this very subject with the big 3 (CNN, MSNBC, FOX):

Cable TV and COVID-19: How Americans perceive the outbreak and view media coverage differ by main news source

Responses to cable news coverage and the pandemic vary notably among Americans who identify Fox News, MSNBC or CNN as their main source of political news.

www.journalism.org

 

[djpbaltimore]

However you classify them, bringing on characters like Alex Berenson to talk about COVID-19 is problematic. He is not a scientist. Last I checked, he wrote spy novels, but now he is given a platform on the nations' top rated cable news show to talk as an authority about the effectiveness of face masks. It is a "I stayed at a Holiday Inn express" moment come to life.

 

[jmdirt]

Maybe not the hospitals but the CDC. Thee Dr. Birx says the CDC is "inflating" covid deaths by up to "25%," and "there is nothing from the CDC that I can trust."

Horowitz: Bombshell report: Dr. Birx believes the CDC is inflating death numbers by as much as 25% - NewsBreak

Why is it that long past the peak of the virus, the number of deaths continues to skyrocket beyond what the revised government models predicted?. On Saturday, the Washington Post reported that Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House Coronavirus Task Force response administrator, is accusing the CDC of...

www.newsbreak.com

Dr. Deborah Birx said 'there is nothing from the CDC that I can trust' in a White House coronavirus task force meeting

Birx and others feared that the CDC's tracking system was providing inaccurate data on coronavirus deaths and cases, The Washington Post reported.

www.google.com

And in this particular case the family says their loved one died of complications from Alzheimers and not Covid as was listed on the death certificate:

oklahoman.com: Local News, Politics & Sports in Oklahoma City, OK

Get the latest breaking news, sports, entertainment and obituaries in Oklahoma City, OK from oklahoman.com.

www.google.com

Getting back to Birx: She's an icon on the WH task force - when she speaks people listen. "25%" is a significant number. And "nothing" she can trust from the CDC means the agency is not credible - at least that's how I interpret it.

Brix is just slightly more than dt's puppet, but even she encourages covering your mouth and nose. Other top people in the infectious disease field won't even discuss her comments anymore because they understand what is going on. Remember, she was the first medical person to say that C19 was 'just going to go away'...I wonder why she took that stance?!

..."they are inflating C19 deaths by 25%": she doesn't have any data to support that, she was just told to say it. Even if that were true, them inflating numbers by 25% means that she can't trust anything they say? Again, more hyperbole to try to help the guy pulling her strings.

If I'm not mistaken it is widely believed that the numbers are actually higher than reported by the CDC.

 

[Oldermanish]

Well...I confess that I watch "Fox News" most of the time (occasionally some CNN) - so I guess I'm part of that "low IQ crowd?" (they say that some of us former college football players have low IQs - so maybe that is my problem in the first place. Lol). I hope I don't get tarred & feathered here...maybe I should have kept my mouth shut.

Seriously, it's good to see Fox News put that article on. Though they were never anti-mask per se, they never talked about the issue much. A few weeks ago, they had Judge Napolitano on talking about the constitutionality of mask mandates - but that was about it.

I wouldn't say they're anti-science either. They have their own set of medical advisors that discuss a wide variety of subjects. They don't have many field reporters at hospital hot spots compared to CNN which reports on that daily. But let's face it; it's about ratings and appealing to their base. Fox News is now owned by Disney (previously owned by Murdoch, who supports the Republican party). Disney is owned by Chepek. Fox News is basically the platform for the Republican party and naturally is going to be anti-Left...nothing new there. Interestingly, they continue to have the highest cable news ratings with "Tucker Carlson" having the highest-rating program in cable news history.

Their rival, CNN, is owned by Turner who endorsed Hillary. Their platform is obviously for the Democrats which again is nothing new. Their ratings have skyrocketed during this pandemic- up 117% from last year! (they were on life-support last year at this time). They also have their own team of medical experts and spend a significantly amount time on coronavirus reports. So, it's really about ratings and $$$ between the networks and appealing to their base...I think you understand that.

Interesting article here on this very subject with the big 3 (CNN, MSNBC, FOX):

Cable TV and COVID-19: How Americans perceive the outbreak and view media coverage differ by main news source

Responses to cable news coverage and the pandemic vary notably among Americans who identify Fox News, MSNBC or CNN as their main source of political news.

www.journalism.org

Nomad-I watch all networks and check in on OANN and others to see any trends. Your observation that Fox and CNN lean toward respective parties is difficult to miss. Fox, however, allows Laura Ingraham and Sean Hannity latitude as they are media "personalities", like Don Lemon/CNN and not newspeople. You will have no difficulty finding resistance to mask use among many of those Fox personality broadcasts until Hannity broke ranks and insisted it was vital to wear them and contradicted the President. Likewise you will find Lemon to be a consistent booster and fairly preachy about his position.
The other subtext in the polarity of networks was Trump's opposition to CNN's merger with Comcast. That definitely set the camps apart. Rupert Murdoch was not so subtly working behind the scenes and Trump gained that support from Fox in what could only be guessed as quid pro quo patronage. It's unfortunate that both organizations can be blatant about serving their own interests at a time when US politicians need to be legitimately held to account for their actions. You and I will likely be frustrated for some more months waiting for clarity.

 

[Koronin]

Speaking of vaccines, the optimism surrounding this trial seems very legit. There has been a genuine buzz about this one for the last couple weeks in virology/ epidemiology circles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1285210865902342147

View: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1285210865902342147


If this ultimately fails, the answer is ramping up production of surgical grade or higher masks for public use. There is not much indication that this is happening to the degree necessary here. I don't know about other countries. They would protect against aerosols, although as I have said here before, the distinction between particle size is overplayed IMO. If aerosols are infectious, so are droplets. It should not effect what people are doing as the prevention strategies overlap to a degree. New Zealand beat COVID-19 without a vaccine. It is manageable if the will is there.

Both Pfizer and Astrazeneca released their vaccine Phase 1 results. From what I've gathered they have similar numbers and news. I think I heard that both are going into Phase 3 trials soon. It does appear to be at least hopeful news for vaccines. I also think we need more than one company with vaccines that get approved.

 

[BlueRoads]

Time to be patriotic: Angela Merkel always wears a mask on photos now.

 

[Merckx index]

More piss-poor ”journalism” bordering on outright propaganda .

Why do you say that? They're reporting a fact, that a large proportion of the NAS wrote a letter complaining about the Administration's approach to science.

If the virus is aerosol transmitted then cloth masks do absolutely nothing to protect the wearer from anyone or anyone from the wearer. Also, if aerosol transmitted, go in your home, lock the doors and don‘t come out until there‘s a vaccine.

That isn't true. Many studies have shown that even homemade masks can block the virus, e.g.,:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7341689/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7263076/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7228401/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32329337/

If aerosols are infectious, so are droplets. It should not effect what people are doing as the prevention strategies overlap to a degree.

Yes, though to the extent that droplets matter, masks will not protect the wearer, but will protect others from the wearer. Whereas masks in theory will protect both the wearer and others from aerosol transmission.

Also, droplets are potentially more infectious, because their larger size means they can contain more virus. But it still isn't clear how much transmission occurs from touching contaminated surfaces vs. breathing aerosol.

the same audience likely heard just last week a cardiologist on one of the most watched prime time cable news shows claim that COVID-19 is spread by the fecal-oral route and masks are not effective.

I'm still waiting for evidence that virus in the feces is infectious. If it turns out to be, then it will most likely be spread by farting--I'm serious--in which case masks will definitely help. Or by flushing toilets, which also generate aerosols. The people pushing this theory seem to think the virus can be spread by contaminated water--in which case we are already subject to lots of other potential diseases--or though insects, for which there is no evidence at all.

But for those who want to investigate the possibility, here's an article discussing it:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720324360

Dr. Birx says the CDC is "inflating" covid deaths by up to "25%,"

How does she reconcile this with the much lower CFR that we see now, as I discussed upthread?

they continue to have the highest cable news ratings with "Tucker Carlson" having the highest-rating program in cable news history.

Ah, yes, the guy who accuses someone who lost both her legs in military service of hating America. A guy, of course, who never served himself.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Why do you say that? They're reporting a fact, that a large proportion of the NAS wrote a letter complaining about the Administration's approach to science

Yeah, quoting dudes complaining of the Global Warming response is super helpful when criticizing C19 response. Or whatever.

That isn't true. Many studies have shown that even homemade masks can block the virus, e.g.,:

No conclusive studies have been conducted on differentiating between the modes of transmission of viruses via droplets and aerosols; hence, unresolved dichotomy.

In the events of the droplet and aerosol transmission, the efficacy of such personal protective equipment in combating the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 has been poorly understood.

The transmission of droplets and aerosols within confined spaces becomes profoundly complex phenomena, and the real trajectories under different micro-climatic conditions are poorly understood.

However, some droplets, when ejected from an infected person, convert to aerosol particles (also known as bioaerosols) with relatively smaller aerodynamic diameters and, consequently, become airborne (Morawska, 2006). Such virus-laden aerosol particles are capable of infecting people who inhale such particles, thereby spreading the disease. Further, there have been several transport phenomena where larger droplets become smaller through evaporation so that such smaller particles are called droplet nuclei. Such aerosol particles with the encapsulation of viruses could be termed as bioaerosols or droplet nuclei; hence, the term ‘aerosol’, ‘bioaerosol’, and ‘droplet nuclei’ is used in this paper interchangeably. The scenarios in respect of the generation of droplets and aerosol, particularly in the indoor environment, have not been adequately understood, and thus, insights into the plausible mechanisms are worthy of being explored.

On the contrary to what Duguid (1945) has presented, a study conducted by Papineni and Rosenthal (1997) with five healthy individuals has manifested that 80–90% of particles from human expiratory activities were aerosols with the diameter being smaller than 1 μm. The study also corroborated that the highest aerosol densities were generated during coughing and the lowest from nasal breathing, of which exhaled breath would be more responsible in transmitting the viruses (size of the order of 0.1 μm) when compared with transmitting the bacteria (> 1 μm). It has been found that vomiting by a SARS-CoV infected person in the corridor of a hotel in Hong Kong in 2003 has contracted the disease on several people nearby by aerosol transmission (Morawska, 2006).

Surgical masks and N95 respirators are very popular and ubiquitous among millions of people worldwide as the PPE for COVID-19, but surgical masks are believed to be not preventing aerosol transmission, and N95 respirators are recognized to be preventing aerosol and droplet transmission.

With the unexpected escalation of the COVID-19 cases worldwide, there has been a dearth in supply of masks, and consequently, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, USA, has modified its guidelines on masks with the inclusion of homemade cloth or fabric masks to be worn in public areas. Use of masks can be 2-fold: control the penetration of droplets from an infectious person into the respiratory tract of a susceptible host, and control the droplets going out from an infected patient. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the use of masks for the control of SARS-CoV-2-laden aerosol transmission from an infected person to a susceptible host is uncertain and not fully conceivable. It has been a known fact that different commercial masks have different efficiencies in controlling the transmission of infectious agents. In general, N95 respirators are provided to prevent users from inhaling small airborne particles (aerosols) and need to fit tightly to the user's face. Surgical masks are often used to protect people from larger droplets transmission and fit loosely to the user's face.

Complying with European standard EN 149:2001, three different types of disposable particulate respirators known as filtering facepiece 1 (FFP1), FFP2, and FFP3 have been in use for controlling SARS-CoV-2. The FFP1 refers to the least filtering of the three masks with an aerosol filtration of at least 80% and leakage to the inside of a maximum of 22%. This mask is mainly used as a dust mask. The FFP2 masks have a minimum of 94% filtration and a maximum of 8% leakage to the inside. Healthcare professionals often wear them against influenza viruses, believing that they guard against aerosol transmission. The FFP2 masks are also used for protection against the SARS-CoV-2. The FFP3 masks are the best in filtering particles and are recommended against the contraction of SARS-CoV-2. With a minimum filtration of 99% and a maximum 2% leakage to the inside, the FFP3 masks protect the susceptible host against the contraction of the disease caused by very fine particles such as virus-laden aerosols from an infected person.

Another study comparing the efficiency of homemade masks, surgical masks, and standard FFP2 masks has corroborated that surgical masks provided about twice as much protection as homemade masks (van der Sande et al., 2008). The FFP2 masks were observed to provide adults with about 50 times as much protection as homemade masks, and 25 times compared to surgical masks (van der Sande et al., 2008). Similarly, another study has elaborated that a surgical mask (that filtered 89% of viral particles) was about three times better in controlling the viral transmission than that of a homemade mask made of a tee-shirt and cotton towel (Davies et al., 2013). Davies et al. (2013) have further iterated that a homemade mask should only be considered as a last resort to prevent droplet transmission from infected individuals, but with limited success.



I think it’s safe to say cloth masks, while better than no mask, aren’t probably going to make a huge impact on the spread which is why we won’t reopen the economy or even schools. If cloth masks were very effective we could safely do both.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7293495/

 

[movingtarget]

Time to be patriotic: Angela Merkel always wears a mask on photos now.

Merkel is an adult. From what I have seen, she usually is the most adult person in the room................dealing with the EU must be horrific, it's bad enough when a federal government has to deal with it's own state or provincial governments. I hope Germany find the right replacement as the EU will need them badly.

 

[Oldermanish]

Time to be patriotic: Angela Merkel always wears a mask on photos now.

So now our presi don't is declaring masks as "Patriotic" in the most feeble, personal-choice kind of way.
Samuel Johnson: "Patriotism is the last vestige of a Scoundrel" when he discussed the state of pandering politicians. Snowden added Terrorism to his version of that mindset (BLM demonstrations in the street) as US Federal agents are being dispatched, without request by local mayors to quell "violence" which can include gang drive-bys and whatever. This all sets up the law and order platform and the defense of the Chinese Virus. That was said again, today. Sorry US; we own the version of the affliction we have at this point.

We're seeing the last phase of the C19 strategy on the Federal campaign level. It will be ridden with slogans, photo-ops, scapegoats and slogans and in the end the local representatives and health care workers will help us navigate the wreckage or break under the burden. Everyone is hoping AstroZeneca, Pfizer...etc will make it go away.
The fact that the US is the worst example of pandemic management appears to owe it's ebbs and tides almost solely to political or quasi-religious affiliation which we're not supposed to discuss. The problem is that the US consumer base is significant to all other responsible economies for some portion of vitality and, with travel bans adding to the isolation the Summer and Winter is going to be very unpredictable.
Ironic that folks here want to make prejudicial claims about bat consumption but don't own the consequences of driving this issue deep into 2021.
Sorry, but there aren't a lot of stateswomen or men stepping up until campaign timing suits them.

 

[Merckx index]

Chris, I'm very much aware of everything said in your post, and much more. In fact, I'll even point out a couple of things the authors of that otherwise excellent review missed. While they cited Papineni and Rosenthal, they didn't mention a much more recent study by Stadnytskyi et al. (2020) using lasers to identify much larger particle quantities (and sizes) than other studies That came out too recently for them to include.

Second, and this is a serious omission, while they talk about different size particles, how long they can stay in the air, how much they are dehyrated, to what extent they may be blocked by masks, and so on, they never address the crucial fact that the size of the particle is proportional to how much virus it contains. Thus small particles are much less likely to be infectious than large particles, and in fact that study by Stadnytskyi et al points out that there is a vanishingly low probability that very small particles will contain any virus at all. This is based on studies of the virus concentration in saliva, and even the highest concentrations reported in a few individuals at their peak indicate that a 1 um particle will very rarely contain even a single virus--and this is after dehydration, which converts particles in the range of 3-5 um to 1 um in size. Even fairly large particles won't contain that many copies on average, which makes questions of the infectious dose and the amount of particles inhaled critical. And even these calculations based on saliva concentration don't take into account that many of the viral copies may be degraded and thus not infective.

Wrt masks some studies find homemade masks are much better than other studies do. E.g., one of the links I posted found that cloth masks were actually superior to N95. Another reported that cloth masks blocked 95% of particles, vs. 97% for surgical masks, and 99+% for N95. A lot of the differences depend on the size range of particles studied, the temperature and humidity. Given that, as I said before, we don't know how much transmission is through what sizes of particles, it would be foolish to think masks can't make the difference between getting infected and not getting infected in some situations. The second sentence in the Abstract makes this point: "Undeniably, although such practices help control the COVID-19 pandemic to a greater extent, the complete control of virus-laden droplet and aerosol transmission by such practices is poorly understood."

But questions about the efficacy of homemade masks is not what is driving the view of not opening schools. In the first place, it's difficult to get very young kids to wear any masks. In the second place, no one believes that even N95 masks, or their Euro FFP equivalents, will prevent all transmission. Again, second sentence in the Abstract. If it were that simple, we could open up everything as long as everyone wore a mask. No one is claiming that, I'm certainly not. All I'm saying is that masks do have an effect, and that article you cite doesn't contest that.

 

[Unchained]

I really feel like there is a serious Shimano Sram meltdown happening here..Yes Campy works but why can nobody making bikes offer it as original equipment?
what about those Spanish hydrologic things..you know the stuff made by the funny chain ring people..or what about the Chinese parts that are as good as Dura Ace but cost $200 bucks and includes a bottom bracket that works on every bike,never fails, squeak..or creeks..breaks..or what about..should I wait for..what if I go pro after I complete my first ride to work or Gran Fondo..should I start taking to my wife and family about pre registering for the Tour dFrance?
Or should we stick with basics,washing hands,masks,no group gatherings,testing and social distancing until the curve flattens out..
why is America reinventing the wheel,when proven techniques and technology is there..in front of us?
why are we resisting things that work?
why do we have 140,000 dead family members and the solution is there..pick 105, use Ultegra ..yes a miracle may surface,but our race is today..now stop ...ucking around

 

[movingtarget]

So now our presi don't is declaring masks as "Patriotic" in the most feeble, personal-choice kind of way.
Samuel Johnson: "Patriotism is the last vestige of a Scoundrel" when he discussed the state of pandering politicians. Snowden added Terrorism to his version of that mindset (BLM demonstrations in the street) as US Federal agents are being dispatched, without request by local mayors to quell "violence" which can include gang drive-bys and whatever. This all sets up the law and order platform and the defense of the Chinese Virus. That was said again, today. Sorry US; we own the version of the affliction we have at this point.

We're seeing the last phase of the C19 strategy on the Federal campaign level. It will be ridden with slogans, photo-ops, scapegoats and slogans and in the end the local representatives and health care workers will help us navigate the wreckage or break under the burden. Everyone is hoping AstroZeneca, Pfizer...etc will make it go away.
The fact that the US is the worst example of pandemic management appears to owe it's ebbs and tides almost solely to political or quasi-religious affiliation which we're not supposed to discuss. The problem is that the US consumer base is significant to all other responsible economies for some portion of vitality and, with travel bans adding to the isolation the Summer and Winter is going to be very unpredictable.
Ironic that folks here want to make prejudicial claims about bat consumption but don't own the consequences of driving this issue deep into 2021.
Sorry, but there aren't a lot of stateswomen or men stepping up until campaign timing suits them.

Election time...........not sure what Trump is up to, he is doing everything possible it seems to lose the election. Disputing the upcoming election result seems to be on his agenda, an act of desperation which won't work. It took a crisis like this for Trump to show his true colours in all their glory and it's an ugly sight. The USA is discovering what it's like to be rudderless during a pandemic. No wonder the science community sounds frustrated. Trump just sounds clueless and feeble. I'm sure the rest of the world is as confused as I am regarding his so called leadership.

 

[Unchained]

I think that it's naive and overly simplified to explain why people polled in the US say that they will not wear masks even if arrest and imprisonment is the end result, people say that they will not take a vaccine if one is available,and that people summarily dismiss all available medical and scientific data..that is very difficult to pin on one man..seems silly to try. America has doctors and the internet,America has the information,consciously ignoring science. Telephone lines are clear to other leaders worldwide, America can call half dozen other 1st world countries for recent blueprints..does not look likely.
weekends Wall Street journal article about longer term strategies of the captains of industry..while most are calculating duration in months,top business leaders have accepted what the US has done and said and have made calculations as to how to act prudently and w intelligence for the coming years..America appears to want this to continue

 

[Oldermanish]

Election time...........not sure what Trump is up to, he is doing everything possible it seems to lose the election. Disputing the upcoming election result seems to be on his agenda, an act of desperation which won't work. It took a crisis like this for Trump to show his true colours in all their glory and it's an ugly sight. The USA is discovering what it's like to be rudderless during a pandemic. No wonder the science community sounds frustrated. Trump just sounds clueless and feeble. I'm sure the rest of the world is as confused as I am regarding his so called leadership.

Unfortunately we can't pin the resistant response on Donald. He's exploiting opportunities, at least to his bandwidth of capabilities but so are his opponents.
It's like Unchained and Merckx have pointed out on simple mask efficacy. Some may be better situationally but light years better than not. Folks claiming some sort of disability associated with wearing a mask always seem to be quoting from a script. Where they get that script and how defining they feel the act of wearing one can be is maddening. My old high school buddy ranted to me on the phone about masks as muzzles, 5G and vaccines as the Mark of the Beast. Kanye West just echoed the identical sentiments in his recent "campaign" appearance. Some of these people are rushing to the End of Days; only to find they are the only one there. At the same time the righteous mask wearers are judging wholesale anyone that questions data, as we all should.
Angela Merkel has the ability to represent a posture to a collection of countries that routinely have fought each other and the US citizenry now can appear as the most ignorant and infectious lot on the planet. It's not going to be easy to shake that reputation let alone repair the extensive damage to culture and economy.
As the wise Unchained spoketh: "our race is today..now stop ...ucking around"

 

[djpbaltimore]

Thus small particles are much less likely to be infectious than large particles, and in fact that study by Stadnytskyi et al points out that there is a vanishingly low probability that very small particles will contain any virus at all. This is based on studies of the virus concentration in saliva, and even the highest concentrations reported in a few individuals at their peak indicate that a 1 um particle will very rarely contain even a single virus--and this is after dehydration, which converts particles in the range of 3-5 um to 1 um in size. Even fairly large particles won't contain that many copies on average, which makes questions of the infectious dose and the amount of particles inhaled critical. And even these calculations based on saliva concentration don't take into account that many of the viral copies may be degraded and thus not infective.

This is quickly becoming the crux of the discussion based on this new study. The key point here is that they tried to discern if the viral particles they can detect by PCR in smaller particles are actually infectious. And the result in my view is ambiguous. The evidence they use to show replication in cell culture is not standard, which calls into question about why plaque assays were not included. Sometimes what is omitted is just as important as what is shown. Quite a bit of disagreement on this one among the cognoscenti as well. And whether there is infectious virus in the particle does not equate to whether there is a sufficient amount to infect a person. COVID-19 is not nearly as contagious as other airborne viruses like measles or chicken pox. I still think we should probably assume that it can infect by this route, but whether that is the main route is a different story.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1285313529638195203

View: https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1285313529638195203

 

[Koronin]

I really feel like there is a serious Shimano Sram meltdown happening here..Yes Campy works but why can nobody making bikes offer it as original equipment?
what about those Spanish hydrologic things..you know the stuff made by the funny chain ring people..or what about the Chinese parts that are as good as Dura Ace but cost $200 bucks and includes a bottom bracket that works on every bike,never fails, squeak..or creeks..breaks..or what about..should I wait for..what if I go pro after I complete my first ride to work or Gran Fondo..should I start taking to my wife and family about pre registering for the Tour dFrance?
Or should we stick with basics,washing hands,masks,no group gatherings,testing and social distancing until the curve flattens out..
why is America reinventing the wheel,when proven techniques and technology is there..in front of us?
why are we resisting things that work?
why do we have 140,000 dead family members and the solution is there..pick 105, use Ultegra ..yes a miracle may surface,but our race is today..now stop ...ucking around

Because Americans haven't changed and Churchill's comment, "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing --after they've tried everything else", is still true.

 

[jmdirt]

Because Americans haven't changed and Churchill's comment, "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing --after they've tried everything else", is still true.

Its amazing, almost scary, quotes from 20, 50, 100 years ago still ring so true.

 

[Koronin]

Its amazing, almost scary, quotes from 20, 50, 100 years ago still ring so true.

I know. There's a few Star Trek episodes like that as well.

 

[jmdirt]

As the resident mask ranterer:

I'm viewing all aspects of C19, including mask wearing very much like other huge topics:
-If most infectious disease experts encourage masks, but one TV gynecologist questions masks: "the jury is split, I'm not risking it until they all agree"...
-If most climate experts generally agree about climate change, but Dr. Phil muses about the cold winter being a sign that there is no warming: "the scientist don't agree...".
-If most planetary experts say the earth is round(ish), but one hot air balloon guy claims to have seen the edge: "there isn't consensus...".
-"At first they said don't wear mask, now they're saying wear masks, they can't make up their mind so I'm not wearing one." No, we wouldn't want to learn as we battle a novel virus. I'm assuming these people also prefer having a hole drilled in their brain to treat emotional issues?

1,000 experts agree, but the guy at the corner store has a theory so I'll go with that...WTF?!

Even though likely related, the above doesn't account for conspiracy issues. Brain drilling anyone?