Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Jagartrott]

Seems madness even regardless of covid. Half a million bikers? And why exactly?

Here, in Belgium, we've had cases going up for a couple of weeks now, but this seems to be slowly stabilizing after a series of new measures. Almost all countries in Europe are struggling with new outbreaks, especially among the younger generation. Note that cases started going up after schools had closed. The problem is mainly parties + family gatherings + returning travellers from places without widespread testing. That said, based on hospilizations and deaths, we're picking up many more actual cases than in March/April, and are thus able to respond faster and more precise. But getting this to 0 - no way. It thus irritates me that New Zealand keeps popping up as 'an example'. The situation here is completely different, it's a nonsensical comparison.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Chris I was curious if you were able to watch the Axios interview with President Trump and were able to draw any conclusions about US Covid strategy? I was unable really to sleep well or completely concentrate at work after hearing the responses,especially about Covid-19 deaths,domestic and international testing and the President's grasp of math,medicine and statistics.

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

I haven’t seen the entire thing yet. However I think I probably have the gist. I would say a couple of things: Virtually everything I have seen so far we can’t discuss here... and after more than 3.5 years of his administration you still have no idea how the interviewee operates.

That what the interviewee says still costs you sleep is - at this point - your fault.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

That interview and a family dinner including a my niece, a new teacher convinced me I'll need to pace myself. My niece is an extremely intelligent math major that could have taken a really good position with any local tech company but is doing on line tutoring and virtual classes. She hopes to give more as a teacher for awhile. She couldn't believe that DT was allowed to provide that interview without an earpiece and a shock collar....She wants to hold on as a teacher at least until DT and Devos are disappearing in history's rear view mirror. Very committed for a 21 year old these days.
As I said about pacing; my liver needs to hold out past November so I'm hoping she has voting friends in her age cohort.

Your niece sounds like most public school educated 21 year olds in the Country.

I’d be interested to hear what your niece thinks of, or her critique of, what the guy she’s eager to vote for says. Of course, I can rest assured that would never come up at your dinner table.

I took a quick peek at the demographics of the last election. Americans aged 50+ elected the current office holder. Under 50 voted for the losing candidate.

Life experience, work experience, real-world experience matters, no?

 

[jmdirt]

'It's just madness': bikers throng South Dakota town despite Covid threat

At least 100,000 expected for Sturgis rally in state’s Black Hills as officials urge attendees to take precautions and ‘work together’

www.theguardian.com

Honestly, I don't care if a bunch of idiot sh*ts want to have a mass moto orgy in SD, but the local people could be decimated, and all of the HOGs will take the C19 back to their communities and spread it even more.

 

[Nomad]

Not good for this subset of people:

US obesity epidemic could undermine effectiveness of a Covid-19 vaccine | CNN

Vaccines protecting against influenza, hepatitis B and rabies are less effective for obese people. As scientists develop a Covid-19 vaccine, experts say obesity could be an impediment, a sobering prospect for the US, where nearly half of all adults are obese.

www.cnn.com

With ~107 million clinically obese (33%) and 9% morbid obese people in this country, it's a dire outlook if a vaccine can't be tailored made for this group.

 

[movingtarget]

'We're making it up as we go along': how Trump's America failed the Covid test

Coronavirus has been allowed to run amok by governors and the president, spreading inexorably into the rural heart of America

www.theguardian.com

 

[Oldermanish]

Your niece sounds like most public school educated 21 year olds in the Country.

I’d be interested to hear what your niece thinks of, or her critique of, what the guy she’s eager to vote for says. Of course, I can rest assured that would never come up at your dinner table.

I took a quick peek at the demographics of the last election. Americans aged 50+ elected the current office holder. Under 50 voted for the losing candidate.

Life experience, work experience, real-world experience matters, no?

I don't know what exposure you have to 21 yo public school students but my experience is varied, for sure. Likewise with private school students leaving me with the impression that individual inspirations and work ethic are separate from the system. Their attitudes, likewise.
Your assumption that a single political perspective exists at the family table is as invalid as your generalization of educational influences. Her father and sister, brother in law are all very, very socially conservative and religious. Her mom and step-dad are more skeptical and cynical. Step dad works in the health care field on a top administrative level which contributes to deep knowledge of the impact our current Executive Branch has had on health care.
Your snapshot of the voter profile means what?

 

[Unchained]

Chris my inability to sleep is indeed made internally. Seeing the death toll in the US steadily rise,disturbing, seeing the specific scientifically identified sub- groups,like elderly,ethnic groups and essential workers disproportionately dead..I feel good about myself,realizing the unneeded death is a policy decision. With my grandmother in a facility @1 your North of Sacramento and having no special provisions made to protect the elderly,it's very,to my soul disturbing that the judgment, managers of elder care facilities,county by county,state by state determining who lives and dies is beyond anything I can have imagined.
To have the national policy on deaths in the US to be that's the cost of doing business is appalling. To have that policy stated out loud" it is what it is " still appalling but also criminal and immoral.
During a pandemic to toy with the most widely used drug delivery system is also criminal. With older, veteran and rural folks disproportionately impacted.
To see the mathematical representation of @50% of Covid deaths taking place in elder care and congregate living settings and to allow the most vulnerable to die for lack of action or concern,again unforgettable,unforgivable and criminal. A crime against our humanity.
To see the top U.S.leader say no big deal,so what to our fellow citizens,countrymen dying eclipses disgusting.
And as I have ranted about in previous posts, child hunger is on a dramatic increase because of the Covid crisis. Housing insecurity and eviction is looming on our land,the health conditions of all suddenly unhoused, homeless will predictably decline. A true additional national emergency, and in my opinion,significantly more important than election technique in Nevada or multiple golf games in New Jersey.
People are confusing or infusing politics into medical problems..Vets getting meds by mail, children suddenly living in cars or tents with no food is a significant health challenge to our citizens.
Covid is not " just going to go away " as the US government officially stated yesterday.
That is not a conservative stance or dismissal of the sudden,miraculous disappearance of the virus a liberal lean..
Saying that the policy of the US is to wait it out is completely insane.

 

[Unchained]

And yes I foam at the mouth..

 

[djpbaltimore]

An interesting thread about how immunity around 10-20% can slow the outbreak. The key part is that this works in conjunction with other mitigation strategies. It won't do much if that is the only drag on the virus.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1291860659118804992

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992

 

[Koronin]

An interesting thread about how immunity around 10-20% can slow the outbreak. The key part is that this works in conjunction with other mitigation strategies. It won't do much if that is the only drag on the virus.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1291860659118804992

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992

Then a vaccine that works at about 50% should be very helpful. Still hoping multiple vaccines work and maybe a few will work for different groups which will make the entire thing more effective.

 

[hrotha]

An interesting thread about how immunity around 10-20% can slow the outbreak. The key part is that this works in conjunction with other mitigation strategies. It won't do much if that is the only drag on the virus.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1291860659118804992

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992

Any degree of immunity at all will help, sure. But I'm not convinced immunity at the level we're seeing really does much. In Spain at least it doesn't seem like we are seeing that much of a difference between regions that were heavily affected by the first wave and regions that weren't affected so much when it comes to new outbreaks getting out of control.

 

[Merckx index]

I took a quick peek at the demographics of the last election. Americans aged 50+ elected the current office holder. Under 50 voted for the losing candidate.

Life experience, work experience, real-world experience matters, no?

I'd say degree of education matters far more.

As far as experience goes, to quote the winner of that election, when he was debating against his vastly more experienced opponent, "experience doesn't matter if it's bad experience". His words, not mine.

It's not how long you've lived that matters, it's what you've actually done with those years.

 

[movingtarget]

Thousands of bikers heading to South Dakota rally to be blocked at tribal land checkpoints

Clampdown comes as fears mount that mask-free bikers headed to large gathering could spread coronavirus to tribal groups

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

What we are learning about Covid-19 and kids

As schools around the world prepare to reopen, emerging scientific evidence about children and coronavirus is coming to light

www.theguardian.com

 

[Oldermanish]

Any degree of immunity at all will help, sure. But I'm not convinced immunity at the level we're seeing really does much. In Spain at least it doesn't seem like we are seeing that much of a difference between regions that were heavily affected by the first wave and regions that weren't affected so much when it comes to new outbreaks getting out of control.

When people are getting a second infection of C19 the length of immunity periods was questionable. It'll be difficult to have a reliable level so vaccination will be the widely distributed and, at the best estimates of vaccine approval and distribution most front end immunity may not be of value. I'd appreciate input from the forum pros on this as the possibility of herd immunity seems to be a fleeting one.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I'd say degree of education matters far more.

As far as experience goes, to quote the winner of that election, when he was debating against his vastly more experienced opponent, "experience doesn't matter if it's bad experience". His words, not mine.

It's not how long you've lived that matters, it's what you've actually done with those years.

I’d say common sense matters more than education.

Regarding the last sentence, I’ll go ahead and guess most people you and I consider old likely have significantly more wisdom than those you and I consider young.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

It took a while, but on August 8 2020 it was announced that the Mid-America Conference is the first DI-FBS conference to cancel fall football due to covid. The 2020 season has been postponed to 2021. There aren't any major powerhouse teams or revenue earning football programs there (outside the top-100 revenue generators), but I expect more conferences will eventually follow suit.

 

[Koronin]

It took a while, but on August 8 2020 it was announced that the Mid-America Conference is the first DI-FBS conference to cancel fall football due to covid. The 2020 season has been postponed to 2021. There aren't any major powerhouse teams or revenue earning football programs there (outside the top-100 revenue generators), but I expect more conferences will eventually follow suit.

I thought the Ivy League had already suspended all fall sports. I also suspect all fall sports in lower division teams to be cancelled soon.

 

[Unchained]

Yesterday's stats were that 1 of every 66 Americans is a carrier.
I have been to Sturgis twice and Daytona Bike Week also two times. As some know I try and get to Laguna Seca and to Circuit of the Americas..I personally don't see any possible way to conduct the bike week events w integration of best practices and that is with the hypothesis that a majority of attendees will be maskless.
The motorcycle races I think can be conducted safely,other things I love like Mid Ohio and Unadilla can probably be staged pretty easy if the crowd participation is high for conformity with best practices..I really don't see bike racing in the US as having a problem..99% of our races are crits a sparse attendance..as for the biggest races that involve rolling enclosure,again I have to guess that promoters wish they had a problem to solve social distancing is the norm.
College sports for the majority of schools are absolutely impossible to pull off..the cash flow involves crowds,merchandise, concessions, and volumes of immediate community activities,getting drunk and eating before and after events..concerts..I don't see it but maybe there is a way.
America like the rest of the world has cabin fever and as that fever boils over from isolation, at least in the US,Covid looks like part of everything for a couple of years.
My heart is cracking thinking of how the Little League World Series can be held safely..people say that the Tour dFrance, Super bowl,World cup or other sports events are bigger and better..fake news..LLWS is the best sporting event held world wide..

 

[Koronin]

Yesterday's stats were that 1 of every 66 Americans is a carrier.
I have been to Sturgis twice and Daytona Bike Week also two times. As some know I try and get to Laguna Seca and to Circuit of the Americas..I personally don't see any possible way to conduct the bike week events w integration of best practices and that is with the hypothesis that a majority of attendees will be maskless.
The motorcycle races I think can be conducted safely,other things I love like Mid Ohio and Unadilla can probably be staged pretty easy if the crowd participation is high for conformity with best practices..I really don't see bike racing in the US as having a problem..99% of our races are crits a sparse attendance..as for the biggest races that involve rolling enclosure,again I have to guess that promoters wish they had a problem to solve social distancing is the norm.
College sports for the majority of schools are absolutely impossible to pull off..the cash flow involves crowds,merchandise, concessions, and volumes of immediate community activities,getting drunk and eating before and after events..concerts..I don't see it but maybe there is a way.
America like the rest of the world has cabin fever and as that fever boils over from isolation, at least in the US,Covid looks like part of everything for a couple of years.
My heart is cracking thinking of how the Little League World Series can be held safely..people say that the Tour dFrance, Super bowl,World cup or other sports events are bigger and better..fake news..LLWS is the best sporting event held world wide..

Mid Ohio postponed it's Indy Car race that was supposed to take place in August to possibly September or October.

 

[djpbaltimore]

GA in a nutshell, y'all. I attended GA public schools, so I am not surprised that the people running them are this clueless. And the school featured in the viral picture of crowded hallways will now be closed for the next two days due to 9 COVID positives. Off to a great start gang. Pretending that we can behave like normal is gonna get people killed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1292524257868763136

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1292524257868763136

 

[Merckx index]

Off to a great start gang. Pretending that we can behave like normal is gonna get people killed.

Back near the end of April, when GA was about to open up, I pointed out that it would be interesting to compare that state with MI, which has about the same population. At that time, MI, which had stricter measures, looked much worse, and lockdown opponents were using that as ammunition:

GA: 26,264 cases, 1132 deaths
MI: 44,882 cases, 3951 deaths

Since the beginning of May, though, GA has had almost four times as many cases as MI:

GA: 190,332 cases
MI: 51,844 cases

Beginning a month later, the deaths began piling up. Since the beginning of June:

GA: 2146 deaths
MI: 792 deaths

This is the cost of pretending that the virus doesn't exist, which some supporters of GA were practically implying. GA has been lucky, in that the median age of confirmed cases has dropped from about 50-55 to 35-40, a trend generally seen throughout the south and west. This has kept mortality rates relatively low.

Meanwhile, the HCQ crowd keeps pushing. The latest is this graph purporting to show that countries that encourage use of it to treat COVID have much lower case fatality rates than countries that ban or discourage the use of the drug:

https://techstartups.com/2020/07/23...ssociation-american-physicians-surgeons-says/

I spent some time looking into this, then it dawned on me. The high CFR countries on the left, the red bars, have mostly aging populations. Eleven of the 13 have > 65 populations of > 14%, and 9/13 are >18%. In contrast, 18/25 of the low CFR nations, the green bars on the right, have > 65 populations of < 10%. As you would expect, the correlation of proportion over 65 with any mortality rate is high.

It's also worth noting that in France, when HCQ prescriptions went through the roof in late March--in some parts of the country, a 70-fold increase over pre-pandemic, the CFR was 6.75%. France banned the use of the drug for COVID in late May. In April, when it could still be used, the CFR nearly quadrupled, to 27%, and at the end of May, it had levelled off at about 19%. Since then, with no HCQ, the CFR has dropped a little. There are similar stories in Belgium and Italy, which also banned the drug at that time, and in England and the Netherlands, which stopped recruiting subjects for trials in June, because of the lack of evidence that the drug worked. A slight decrease or no change in CFR since then.

Then there's the U.S., where the CFR has dropped dramatically in the two months since theFDA revoked the emergency use of HCQ for COVID. That drop is clearly because the median age of positives has dropped, as noted above.

That graph by Gummibear is typical of internet "science" these days. Someone posts one graph showing an interesting correlation, and assumes it proves some important relationship about COVID. A typical scientific article will contain maybe 6-10 such figures, and even then, the article will rarely settle the issue. Dozens of studies may be necessary, or at least several large ones, as is the case with HCQ.

It's depressing that AAPS actually have promoted this as evidence that HCQ works. But then, doctors are not scientists, at least not necessarily so. They're trained to apply prophylactic and therapeutic tools to patients, but not to evaluate these tools. Their observations of clinical cases are crucial data, but they don't necessarily know how to interpret those data.

A big problem in particular with HCQ is that people claim it has to be given early after infection. But only about 10% of confirmed cases require hospitalization, and maybe now only 1-2% of the people die. So even a control group will show 90% or more people not hospitalized, and in the high 90s of people not dying. So you need very large numbers to show a difference wrt an experimental group. Most of the studies touted by HCQ proponents don't meet this standard. In the link I posted, it's claimed that 91.7% of patients treated with HCQ improved, and only about 3% died. But how many untreated people improve, and how many die?

It's also claimed that zinc is the key anti-viral, and HCQ just enables the metal ion to get into cells. But then why not use a much safer, OTC drug like quercetin, which has been reported to have the same effect?

 

[Jagartrott]

What we are learning about Covid-19 and kids

As schools around the world prepare to reopen, emerging scientific evidence about children and coronavirus is coming to light

www.theguardian.com

Age matters, is the key takeaway I think.
Don't lump everyone below 18 into one group.

 

[Cannavaro]

Age matters, is the key takeaway I think.
Don't lump everyone below 18 into one group.

The "funny" thing is that a study of Christian Drosten, we were discussing two months ago, was publicly criticized by some statisticians (without any medicine knowledge, even without having the data) for not lumping everyone below 18 into one group. Turns out that he was right and they were wrong.