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Before the MAC cancelled football, the Ivy league did cancel all fall sports. But the Ivy league, while in D1, is in the FCS subdivision of D1. The MA Conference is in the top tier of D1 (the FBS subdivision). So that makes the MAC the 1st D1 FBS conference to bail out of the season, which I think is what I had posted.
America's PPE shortage could last years without strategic plan, experts warn
Hospital officials prepare for autumn surge in coronavirus cases: ‘There’s going to be lots of shortages we haven’t thought about’
It's now about the States handling all responsibility and blame. The WH knows if they don't get a grandstand vaccine delivery before Nov 3rd it won't matter and they won't care. Things have been somewhat quiet on the stockpiling front except for food banks preparing locally in Seattle.America's PPE shortage could last years without strategic plan, experts warn
Hospital officials prepare for autumn surge in coronavirus cases: ‘There’s going to be lots of shortages we haven’t thought about’www.theguardian.com
Thanks. It appears the Big 10 and likely the Pac 10 are getting closer to cancelling all fall sports.
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I was to unspecific. I remember two econometricians criticizing the work on Twitter and one of their main messages was: You should put all under 18 together, because then results gets significant. (Generally you should be very careful to merge or split groups after you see the data. By this you can create artificial significance). I think you remembered the serious critic, which is the right thing to do. But I am still a little bit angry about the shady critic.
I was unaware of that latest development about the big 10 & pac 12 cancelling fall sports. Thanks for that tip. https://www.si.com/college/lsu/football/sec-holding-steady-in-cfb-cancellation
You're welcome. Rumor is a announcement may come tomorrow. There's a report from the Detroit Free Press that says the Big 10 schools voted 12-2 to cancel either football or all fall sports. Also the reports are saying the Big 10 and Pac 12 have been staying in contact with each other.
Interview with one of the SD bikers:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhHxpTocFCY
The biker comes across as very ignorant, repeating talking points he's heard, but not really understanding them. He begins by claiming it's a plandemic, though under pressure, he backs off that. Sort of, because he finds it too coincidental that the pandemic is occurring during an election year, and he's convinced the left is using it to sabotage Trump. Well, some of the left is, I won't disagree with that, but it doesn't follow that the virus isn't a very serious problem. Trump's ignorant statements about bleach, HCQ, masks, and on and on are certainly being used as political talking points against him, but that doesn't mean that the statements aren't wrong, and shouldn't be called out.
Here's another interview with three former COVID skeptics, who changed their minds when they became infected. One of them was given up for dead in the ICU before recovering. One of the others is one of the fourteen people who were infected at a Texas family gathering, posted upthread:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vy53qSQGc74
I discussed the Drosten study upthread. What Drosten concluded was that children had levels of virus as high as adults, though his data indicated they were lower. He was criticized because of the small sample size and quetionable statistics, that seemed to discount the lower levels as significant. It does appear, based on newer studies, that children may have even higher levels of virus than adults. So Drosten's conclusion may have been correct, though that doesn't validate his means to it. Most scientists agree with the conclusion of a recent study that masks have a large effect in stopping the spread of the virus, but the study has still been ripped to shreds.
I made the same point upthread. Drosten used 10 year groups. If he had grouped 0-10 with 11-20, he would have had a larger sample size, and a higher degree of significance, though even then the sample would have been smaller than one would want.
The biker comes across as very ignorant, repeating talking points he's heard, but not really understanding them. He begins by claiming it's a plandemic, though under pressure, he backs off that. Sort of, because he finds it too coincidental that the pandemic is occurring during an election year, and he's convinced the left is using it to sabotage Trump. Well, some of the left is, I won't disagree with that, but it doesn't follow that the virus isn't a very serious problem. Trump's ignorant statements about bleach, HCQ, masks, and on and on are certainly being used as political talking points against him, but that doesn't mean that the statements aren't wrong, and shouldn't be called out.
Here's another interview with three former COVID skeptics, who changed their minds when they became infected. One of them was given up for dead in the ICU before recovering. One of the others is one of the fourteen people who were infected at a Texas family gathering, posted upthread:
I discussed the Drosten study upthread. What Drosten concluded was that children had levels of virus as high as adults, though his data indicated they were lower. He was criticized because of the small sample size and quetionable statistics, that seemed to discount the lower levels as significant. It does appear, based on newer studies, that children may have even higher levels of virus than adults. So Drosten's conclusion may have been correct, though that doesn't validate his means to it. Most scientists agree with the conclusion of a recent study that masks have a large effect in stopping the spread of the virus, but the study has still been ripped to shreds.
I made the same point upthread. Drosten used 10 year groups. If he had grouped 0-10 with 11-20, he would have had a larger sample size, and a higher degree of significance, though even then the sample would have been smaller than one would want.
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The orange man said that kids don't "transport it". He doesn't care that kids get it, because only a small percent of them die.
So, my apologies if my Gimli reponse above was a bit insensitive. I was trying to keep it light.
Seriously, we can take something from that Counsel of Elrond. What did they do? Against an enemy they knew little about they fought back the only way they could. For us vs. Corona, we do the following to keep safe:
- Wear masks.
- Social distancing of 6 feet.
- Wash hands frequently.
- Use common sense when deciding whether or not to do some activity. Is it really necessary?
- Take it one day at a time. Don't worry about the future. The death rate from Covid is not overwhelming. Then say, NO, we won't die, today, even if we get infected.
Chris Gadsden
BANNED
I guess we can just call the school shutdowns a racist act.
“The US education system was not built to deal with extended shutdowns like those imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Teachers, administrators, and parents have worked hard to keep learning alive; nevertheless, these efforts are not likely to provide the quality of education that’s delivered in the classroom.
Even more troubling is the context: the persistent achievement disparities across income levels and between white students and students of black and Hispanic heritage. School shutdowns could not only cause disproportionate learning losses for these students—compounding existing gaps—but also lead more of them to drop out. This could have long-term effects on these children’s long-term economic well-being and on the US economy as a whole.
Despite the enormous attention devoted to the achievement gap, it has remained a stubborn feature of the US education system. In 2009, we estimated that the gap between white students and black and Hispanic ones deprived the US economy of $310 billion to $525 billion a year in productivity, equivalent to 2 to 4 percent of GDP. The achievement gap between high- and low-income students was even larger, at $400 billion to $670 billion, 3 to 5 percent of GDP.1 Although we calculate these two gaps separately, we recognize that black and Hispanic students are also more likely to live in poverty. Yet poverty alone cannot account for the gaps in educational performance. Together, they were the equivalent of a permanent economic recession.
Unfortunately, the past decade has seen little progress in narrowing these disparities. The average black or Hispanic student remains roughly two years behind the average white one, and low-income students continue to be underrepresented among top performers.2
We estimate that if the black and Hispanic student-achievement gap had been closed in 2009, today’s US GDP would have been $426 billion to $705 billion higher.3 If the income-achievement gap had been closed, we estimate that US GDP would have been $332 billion to $550 billion higher (Exhibit 1).”
“Learning loss will probably be greatest among low-income, black, and Hispanic students. Lower-income students are less likely to have access to high-quality remote learning or to a conducive learning environment, such as a quiet space with minimal distractions, devices they do not need to share, high-speed internet, and parental academic supervision.11 Data from Curriculum Associates, creators of the i-Ready digital-instruction and -assessment software, suggest that only 60 percent of low-income students are regularly logging into online instruction; 90 percent of high-income students do. Engagement rates are also lagging behind in schools serving predominantly black and Hispanic students; just 60 to 70 percent are logging in regularly (Exhibit 3).12“
“These variations translate directly into greater learning loss.13 The average loss in our middle epidemiological scenario is seven months. But black students may fall behind by 10.3 months, Hispanic students by 9.2 months, and low-income students by more than a year. We estimate that this would exacerbate existing achievement gaps by 15 to 20 percent.“
“The loss of learning may also extend beyond the pandemic. Given the economic damage, state budgets are already stressed. Cuts to K–12 education are likely to hit low-income and racial- and ethnic-minority students disproportionately, and that could further widen the achievement gap.18“
“These effects—learning loss and higher dropout rates—are not likely to be temporary shocks easily erased in the next academic year. On the contrary, we believe that they may translate into long-term harm for individuals and society.“
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries...united-states-the-hurt-could-last-a-lifetime#
That all goes to show why we should've prioritized strategies to open schools during the summer months. Did we do that? No*, we hoped the virus would disappear while opening up major avenues of transmission. Nice job all around....
*NYC did by following stricter guidelines and they will be opening schools while the test positivity is around 1%.
*NYC did by following stricter guidelines and they will be opening schools while the test positivity is around 1%.
Chris Gadsden
BANNED
Around 8.3 million residents in NYC. Yesterday a bit over 23,000 were tested. They are really getting after it.
Stricter guidelines...
“COVID-19’s deadly toll on New York City could have been significantly lessened if city and state leaders had listened to health officials and enforced a citywide shutdown sooner — including the closure of schools, bars, and restaurants, a New York Times investigation has revealed.
As early as March 12, NYC’s health commissioner Dr. Oxiris Barbot predicted in a closed-door meeting that up to 70 percent of the city’s population could eventually get infected, according to the Times. Another expert, Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the former commissioner of the city’s health department and the former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told the Timesthat the death toll may have been reduced between 50 to 80 percent if the city had put strict social distancing measures in place even just a week or two earlier.
Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Andrew Cuomo have both pushed back on these claims, telling theTimes that facts about the virus and its spread are ever-evolving. Since the beginning of the outbreak in New York, they’ve said that they’re making real-time decisions as they learned more about the dramatic increase of confirmed cases.
But the Times investigation revealed that de Blasio and Cuomo initially expressed confidence about quickly containing the virus in New York, even as it was spreading at alarming rate.
Discussions around the decision to close NYC’s schools and restaurants were among the most contentious issues. On March 11, the mayor publicly encouraged New Yorkers who felt healthy to go out to eat, although officials elsewhere in the country had already started saying that social distancing was critical to mitigating the spread.
Then, as early as the following day March 12, conversations started around the idea of shutting down restaurants and bars to dine-in customers, according to the Times investigation. At the meeting, Dr. Barbot reportedly raised concerns about the spread of the virus, but De Blasio was worried about the impact a shutdown would have on workers and restaurateurs. Later that same day, the state mandated that venues, including restaurants and bars, limit their capacity to 50 percent.“
Nearly 33,000 dead in NY, most of those in NYC metro. If you are arguing that the herd immunity idea was the way to go then I guess this might be a reason they are testing at 1% now.
New Zealand records first new local Covid-19 cases in 102 days
Auckland to enter lockdown as Ardern confirms four members of a family have tested positive
So >100 days without community transmission (the few cases in the meantime were travelers), then suddenly there's a family that has 4 infections and no clear link to any possible source. This shows that getting corona to zero globally is not realistically possible anymore (and probably never was).
The thing about COVID-19 is how predictable so much of this has really been. I don't have an epi degree, but even I could see what was patently obvious back in March.
Florida tested about 58K with a population of 21 million in the middle of an outbreak. NYC shows what you can do even if you screwed up royally at the beginning. They didn't compound their errors by opening up bars as soon as people got slightly bored. Herd immunity is not a strategy, it is a white flag of surrender put forth mostly by people who think 20% is the the level of herd immunity. It is not. Every state in the country should be testing at 1-2% by now. There is no excuse for not doing so.
Chris Gadsden
BANNED
It's not a strategy but it's effectively what happened in New York. The rest of us will drag along for some time at 6 or 7% more or less locked down.
Brag on NY all you like but the numbers do not lie. Had California mis-managed it's way to very high death rates we too could open schools now.
I would not say that his data indicated they were lower. But of course you can interpret the data differently.
As I said before he was critized for different things. Of course you allways wish for larger sample sizes. But you only have so much patients. I don't think you can blame him for that
The statistical methods were fair. But of course you can have a different point of view.Like I said before you should not merge or split groups after you see the data. You can create artificial significance and if I understand you correctly, then it is indeed artificial significance since newer study show that children have indeed no lower viral load. Second, if childreen of different age have indeed different amounts of viral load and you merge the groups, then you get into all sorts of statistical troubles since most methods need homogenous groups. You can work around this, but this is probably more harmful with regard to power than working with two groups.
I hope this does not sound to critical. I like your posts, even the one which I am responding now.
Suddenly in the last 10 days, Covid free Vietnam which had been free of the virus for 100+ days with only a few hundred infections and NO deaths has recorded hundreds of infections and 12 deaths - Covid is a virus by stealth - Asymptomatic carriers spread it around to other asymptomatics until EVENTUALLY a person is symptomatic and is then tested.
From June.
View: https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1293256841296842759
Today. Looks like the Pac-12 will be next to make the official announcement. I am impressed that the ACC remains resolute. They claim to want to wait until the students get back on campus. How do they suppose that is going to work out? The heart damage issue is going to be the main cause of this cancellation, but the inability of MLB to function without bubbles must be weighing on people's minds. Harbaugh made good points yesterday that he had managed no positives in his program recently, but MLB has shown how difficult it is to manage outbreaks once the inevitable happens. The Cardinals haven't played since July and football locker rooms are even worse petri dishes IME.
View: https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1293256841296842759
Chris Gadsden
BANNED
Cancel college & pro football for the next several years then abandon it altogether. That should take care of the heart damage issue as well as brain trauma. May as well look at cancelling all youth team sports. Pro's too.
I freaking hate ball sports and this might actually be a benefit of COVID. I mean if we can save one Junior Seau it will be worth it.
Putin is claiming that Russia's C19 vaccine is ready for use. They didn't even have phase 3 trials. For everyone out there worried about the safety and efficacy of a vaccine, this one might be one for which those fears are justified. I'm particularly interested in this, because Putin has offered to ship doses to the Philippines, where I am. Even if I'm not vaccinated, this is what Duterte has been waiting for. It should lead to opening the schools, and after more than four months in lockdown, I should be able to go out again. So I can't complain, though if the vaccine doesn't work, the virus will just spread further.
Here's the latest vaccine tracker:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
It sounds like Putin is pushing this through fast as a PR move, to make it appear the Russia is ahead of the rest of the world. Actually, China has started administering a vaccine, too, but I think only to soldiers.
Here's the latest vaccine tracker:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
It sounds like Putin is pushing this through fast as a PR move, to make it appear the Russia is ahead of the rest of the world. Actually, China has started administering a vaccine, too, but I think only to soldiers.
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