Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Putin and Duterte have history of sacrificing the innocent for their political ambitions (Putin's daughter?) which is why only Third World gangstas will sign up for this. Bolsonaro is probably killing his speed dial trying to call the cell number he thinks is Vladimir's. It was a fake number on a bar napkin. Jair.
The resources and time spent chasing ineffective treatment is just like the idea that "opening" economic activity has minimal consequences. The re-boot costs could be exponential on so many levels.

All said, the US situation will be politicized even through vaccine distribution. The Harley tools in Sturgis, swaying/praying crowds in mega-worship centers and public beaches and anti-vaxxers will see to that. The divide is getting biblical here although the Florida Governor dropped his suit against the Mayor.
To quote the great Mugatu: "I feel like I'm taking Crazy pills!"
Enjoy this one. NC Lt Governor (current Republican candidate for Governor) sued to have the mask mandate and closure of some businesses overturned that our current Gov and candidate for the Democrats for re election mandated. The Judge didn't go for it and he dropped the suit. I swear the entire thing is insane.
 
I haven't been following this tread for a while but has there been any discussion of the 2nd wave of COVID-19 in the Australian state of Victoria? Take out Victoria's poor management of a hotel quarantine and Australia has still done a good job controlling the virus. But the entire debate should be framed around the balancing act of economy versus control of the virus. New Zealand now has sport fires and are talking about severe restrictions again. This isn't economically sustainable. Meanwhile reports I read from British epidemiologists that the UK has achieved herd immunity?
Seems like the super spreader was the hotel duty manager not one of the quarantined people. They were able to trace it back to the source. Aged care in Victoria is taking a hit obviously and the problem is many of the staff are getting infected as well. They had to fly in more volunteers from interstate with so many staff in quarantine now. A man in his twenties has now died, so far Australia's youngest victim.
 
About 40% of American adults have an underlying medical condition. This isn't some relatively small group such as those over 85 or in nursing homes.

With bike racing resumed, I keep wondering about asthma. One of the things I learned during the Froome case is that as many as one-third of athletes in endurance sports like cycling may have it (or so they claim). If i were a pro racer with asthma, I'd be very worried about getting infected. In the peloton, you're shoulder to shoulder with dozens, hundred of other riders for long periods of time. It helps being outdoors, and the high speeds should help disperse the virus. But think about the situation at the start, e.g., or on a climb where speeds are way down.
For me it is surprising/interesting that asthma is usually not mentioned among the underlying conditions of Covid patients .
 
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About 40% of American adults have an underlying medical condition. This isn't some relatively small group such as those over 85 or in nursing homes.

With bike racing resumed, I keep wondering about asthma. One of the things I learned during the Froome case is that as many as one-third of athletes in endurance sports like cycling may have it (or so they claim). If i were a pro racer with asthma, I'd be very worried about getting infected. In the peloton, you're shoulder to shoulder with dozens, hundred of other riders for long periods of time. It helps being outdoors, and the high speeds should help disperse the virus. But think about the situation at the start, e.g., or on a climb where speeds are way down.
I suffered with a bout of pneumonia in late 2016 and have been using an asthma inhaler as a precaution ever since. Thanks for reminding me to be extra careful to avoid Covid.
 
The UCI has confirmed that the 2020 Road World Championships in Aigle-Martigny, Switzerland, set for September 20-27, have been cancelled but hope a new location can be found for at least some of the races.
The decision comes after an August 12 meeting of the Swiss Federal Council resulted in an extension to the current anti-COVID-19 measures in the country, restricting public gatherings and major events to under 1,000 people until September 30.
"The Organising Committee of the 2020 UCI Road World Championships Aigle-Martigny has taken note of the Swiss Federal Council Ordinance on measures to combat the COVID-19 epidemic in special situations, which stipulates that major events with more than 1,000 visitors or involving more than 1,000 people are prohibited until 30 September 2020," read a statement issued by the UCI.
"As a result, the organisation of the 2020 UCI Road World Championships in Aigle and Martigny is impossible, all the more so as 45 countries are subject to quarantine for entry into Switzerland on 8 August, which would not allow the event to have the desired impact and would deprive a large number of the 1200 riders, from juniors to elite riders, from 90 countries, of the opportunity to come and defend their chances.
 
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The UCI has confirmed that the 2020 Road World Championships in Aigle-Martigny, Switzerland, set for September 20-27, have been cancelled but hope a new location can be found for at least some of the races.
The decision comes after an August 12 meeting of the Swiss Federal Council resulted in an extension to the current anti-COVID-19 measures in the country, restricting public gatherings and major events to under 1,000 people until September 30.
"The Organising Committee of the 2020 UCI Road World Championships Aigle-Martigny has taken note of the Swiss Federal Council Ordinance on measures to combat the COVID-19 epidemic in special situations, which stipulates that major events with more than 1,000 visitors or involving more than 1,000 people are prohibited until 30 September 2020," read a statement issued by the UCI.
"As a result, the organisation of the 2020 UCI Road World Championships in Aigle and Martigny is impossible, all the more so as 45 countries are subject to quarantine for entry into Switzerland on 8 August, which would not allow the event to have the desired impact and would deprive a large number of the 1200 riders, from juniors to elite riders, from 90 countries, of the opportunity to come and defend their chances.
Not really surprised by this, I've basically given up on any sports this season. Even if there are races or competitions you have to wonder what shape and form the athletes are in, surely they can't be at their best because of restricted travel and training?

On a side note - I only just now found out we're in the middle of the Criterium du Dauphine, I'll try to get back into the swing of things and watch what's left of it. Everything just feels so off, so very, very off.
 
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I really think that the school angle,from the tiny to college linebacker is the real issue. The bottom part of the population by age has risk for sure but so far the biggest risk is them. ! They are basically a big car wash sponge full of virus.
The thinking public,anybody who has ever been around kids,knows a few universal truths,kids are gross and dirty. You can't get them to be constantly cleaning,their hands or anything else. And I think finding a herd of unicorns is more likely than getting 5,6 and 7 year olds to consistently socially distance. Kids are super spreaders by design,and w Covid it looks like they carry it around without much consequence. I think that school staff and grandparents are in danger,but the kids not so much.
When we had our children in lockdown,we got a fairly useless data set about sickness and spread but once we do a "real life" data gathering ,it's going to surely turn out that elementary schools are the equivalent to packed bars and nightclubs.
I would love to see contact tracing documents for some of the kids I know..sports,dance,events all over the place,inside and outside school. During extended beer guzzling my friends have made some pretty compelling arguments for giving children drivers licenses because shuttling them around is near impossible..
If your kid is a bike racer,does some equestrian discipline,on a travel team for baseball,football,basketball,karate,soccer or something else..the virus is going to travel also most likely. In my view, lockdown doesn't look possible,and containment looks impossible
If health officials are looking for coughing,fever, outward signs for the virus spread,that is the problem. It's hard to admit that a 10 year old girl is the boogie man, but it's probably the case
 
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This is good news for the people that have been previously infected. The immunity is better than we had expected based on antibody surveys. Still doesn't say how long it will last, but memory T cells are generally pretty long-lived. The down side is that it is difficult to ascertain in the clinic whether people have these cells or not. Much, much, much easier to look for antibodies. What this would also suggest is that more people have been infected than antibody surveys have shown in high impact locales.

View: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1294266335887646720
 
Not really surprised by this, I've basically given up on any sports this season. Even if there are races or competitions you have to wonder what shape and form the athletes are in, surely they can't be at their best because of restricted travel and training?

On a side note - I only just now found out we're in the middle of the Criterium du Dauphine, I'll try to get back into the swing of things and watch what's left of it. Everything just feels so off, so very, very off.
Actually the Dauphine is proving what people were afraid would happen. There is a definite difference in form between riders from countries that were fully locked down and those that had less restrictions. Also there are a few riders on even worse form due to their belief there wouldn't be any more racing at all this year so basically treated the lock down and even June as a long off season.

Now other sports are a bit different. I've been watching the NHL play offs and there have been some excellent games. Plus we have an NHL play offs with the majority of players starting actually healthy.
 
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This is good news for the people that have been previously infected. The immunity is better than we had expected based on antibody surveys. Still doesn't say how long it will last, but memory T cells are generally pretty long-lived. The down side is that it is difficult to ascertain in the clinic whether people have these cells or not. Much, much, much easier to look for antibodies. What this would also suggest is that more people have been infected than antibody surveys have shown in high impact locales.
Just the Ab studies suggest that about 50 million Americans, about 15% of the population, have been infected. That alone is enough to have some impact on the spread. If that is an underestimate of the immunity, so much the better.
 
Universities have started to reopen for in person classes and already we have small out breaks. This one is University of North Carolina (Chapel Hill). This is one of the larger medical universities.

 
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About 40% of American adults have an underlying medical condition. This isn't some relatively small group such as those over 85 or in nursing homes.

With bike racing resumed, I keep wondering about asthma. One of the things I learned during the Froome case is that as many as one-third of athletes in endurance sports like cycling may have it (or so they claim). If i were a pro racer with asthma, I'd be very worried about getting infected. In the peloton, you're shoulder to shoulder with dozens, hundred of other riders for long periods of time. It helps being outdoors, and the high speeds should help disperse the virus. But think about the situation at the start, e.g., or on a climb where speeds are way down.
I don't know where I read it (but I usually only read some rather decent newspapers), that asthma is in fact not a problematic condition, if people know about it and are medically treated. That it might even be they are better off?

Regarding the cancellation of the WC in Martigny, that obviously is not because they are afraid of the spreading that this could cause if they hold it without spectators, but the fact that they are not willing to do it without spectators as that does not bring the revenue they seek.
 
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Sweden is seeing about 250 or so new cases a day but their hospitalizations are down to almost nothing and ICU beds are empty. Both their Scandanavian neighbors, the Norse & Danes, are seeing some increases in cases also. Belgium & Spain are seeing huge increases in daily cases and Spain even went to a hard lockdown for months.

And back in the Spring, models predicted that Sweden's ICUs would expire before May and approximately 96,000 people would die from COVID-19 by July if strict mitigation action wasn't taken The models were off by about 90,000.


Tegnell says Sweden has acquired herd immunity. They have no mask mandates and most everything is open:


"Dr Soo Aleman has been both on the front lines of the Covid-19 epidemic as a senior physician at Stockholm’s leading Karolinska hospital, and on the research side, as Assistant Professor at the Karolinska Institute."

Dr. Aleman believes that it's possible herd immunity has been established through T-cells:

 
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Chris Gadsden

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Sweden is seeing about 250 or so new cases a day but their hospitalizations are down to almost nothing and ICU beds are empty. Both their Scandanavian neighbors, the Norse & Danes, are seeing some increases in cases also. Belgium & Spain are seeing huge increases in daily cases and Spain even went to a hard lockdown for months.

And back in the Spring, models predicted that Sweden's ICUs would expire before May and approximately 96,000 people would die from COVID-19 by July if strict mitigation action wasn't taken The models were off by about 90,000.


Tegnell says Sweden has acquired herd immunity. They have no mask mandates and most everything is open:


"Dr Soo Aleman has been both on the front lines of the Covid-19 epidemic as a senior physician at Stockholm’s leading Karolinska hospital, and on the research side, as Assistant Professor at the Karolinska Institute."

Dr. Aleman believes that it's possible herd immunity has been established through T-cells:

This cant be. There should be millions of dead in Sweden.

They didn’t shut down and, and, and they are, um... okay for the most part.

Kinda makes one wonder wtf is really going on. Maybe Baltimore can explain it.
 
This cant be. There should be millions of dead in Sweden.

They didn’t shut down and, and, and they are, um... okay for the most part.

Kinda makes one wonder wtf is really going on. Maybe Baltimore can explain it.
I hope someone is researching the Swedish situation cause as it's an unusual one but the mortality rate for such a small country isn't good. Seems most of their deaths were in nursing homes and minority communities which mirrors other countries but doesn't explain the no shutdown lack of fatalities across the board. Maybe their stats are also being counted differently like the UK were doing early on in the crisis. The death rate and infection rate doesn't really add up or maybe it does ?
 
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I hope someone is researching the Swedish situation cause as it's an unusual one but the mortality rate for such a small country isn't good. Seems most of their deaths were in nursing homes and minority communities which mirrors other countries but doesn't explain the no shutdown lack of fatalities across the board. Maybe their stats are also being counted differently like the UK were doing early on in the crisis. The death rate and infection rate doesn't really add up or maybe it does ?
I dont mind Sweden taking a different approach, except they like most countries allowed the virus to escape in aged care communities - How about Singapore - 57,000 infections, 27 deaths.
 
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I hope someone is researching the Swedish situation
I've done a lot of research on Sweden, and have had some long arguments about it with someone on another forum. Sweden's supporters insist on comparing it to other Euro countries, which have much higher population densities. It's best compared to its Nordic neighbors, which have case rates 3-5 times lower, and mortality rates 5-10 times lower.

And those differences continue to hold, e.g., in the past month:

Sweden: 7542 cases, 107 deaths
Denmark: 2391/11
Norway: 954/8
Finland: 427/5

Sure, Sweden looks terrific compared to the U.S. It helps to have a much lower population density, and fewer foreign visitors early in the pandemic. If Tegnell had been in charge in France or Italy, I’m quite sure the results would have been much worse than they already were.

If you do want to compare Sweden to the U.S., how about Minnesota?
  1. similar climate
  2. similar population density
  3. large population of Scandinavian descent
  4. one major urban center in the south
  5. the north very sparsely populated
MN has about half the overall mortality rate of Sweden, though to be fair, it has a much lower proportion of people > 65. However, just considering those, the mortality rate is about 20% lower.

Then there's Oklahoma, with a similar population density to Sweden. The over 65 population has one-fourth the mortality rate, and the 36-64 group has half the mortality rate.

And remember, states in the U.S. have to deal with constant land travel over borders with other states. Considering how poorly the pandemic has been managed in the U.S., I don't think comparing Sweden to it is doing Sweden any favors. But many people point to Sweden to make the case that the U.S. shut down its economy unnecessarily. I think Sweden shows is that if you don't care if old people die, you can open up without too much of a problem.
 
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