Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Sweden is definitely doing well at the moment. There are only 2 official deaths a day and there is no excess mortality. Though the number of excess mortality is not very promising this week. But this number is provisional and could be high because of the heat wave in Europe. Whatever, I would not call it herd Immunity. The number of infections is rising again (like in all other European countries). At the end of July there were 200 infections a day, now there are 300. Furthermore Sweden has the 8th highest number of (detected) infections per capita.
 
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This cant be. There should be millions of dead in Sweden.

They didn’t shut down and, and, and they are, um... okay for the most part.

Kinda makes one wonder wtf is really going on. Maybe Baltimore can explain it.
Of course, millions should be dead! After all they're not wearing masks, kids are going to school, businesses are open, and not much social distancing is going on either.

But remember the Gates-funded Imperial College of London predicted 82,000 deaths by July 1 if strict mitigation measures weren't taken. They also predicted 40 million deaths globally. Nothing like being on target. Lol.

 
The Swedish herd immunity hypothesis is baseless. It doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

Also relevant:
Sweden's GDP slumped 8.6% in Q2, more sharply than its neighbors despite its no-lockdown policy
You're leaving out the other part: Sweden's economy performed much better than most of Europe including Germany, France, Spain, Italy, etc.,despite not taking strict lockdown measures like the rest of Europe:


 
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Of course, millions should be dead! After all they're not wearing masks, kids are going to school, businesses are open, and not much social distancing is going on either.

But remember the Gates-funded Imperial College of London predicted 82,000 deaths by July 1 if strict mitigation measures weren't taken. They also predicted 40 million deaths globally. Nothing like being on target. Lol.

People did social distance. Those models assumed that people would do no mitigation at all. I think Sweden will be prone to a second peak in the fall if they don't take any precautions.

I have yet to see any real evidence that T cell cross reactivity is playing a role in the decrease in Sweden or elsewhere. Their decline is pretty typical of a seasonal decrease that many expected.

In hindsight, Sweden took important precautions by banning gatherings and closing schools for older kids. Preventing super spreading is a big curb on R.
 
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You're leaving out the other part: Sweden's economy performed much better than most of Europe including Germany, France, Spain, Italy, etc.,despite not taking strict lockdown measures like the rest of Europe:


You're leaving out the part where it makes sense to compare Sweden to those countries most like Sweden: its neighbours.
 
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Chris I would like to address your point directly and I will try not to introduce any fruit as part of an answer. Swedish children and American children can't and shouldn't be compared for waaaaaay too many reasons to list,but let's go partial,
before they are born, Sweden has universal care, US does not.
Sweden by household has less obesity,less housing and food insecurity. In the United States it's a rampant epidemic.
social services..don't think that given our countries recent histories that a litmus test for access in either country will yield anything..but using history,the U.S.has many more centuries of denying services to citizens and non citizens alike. Sweden swinging toward widespread backlash could possibly be constructively discussed post pandemic,but for now the US government officially using restriction and deportation is an obvious mathematical disaster.
The numbers are clear depending on what criteria used for a result. Even in an age of trophies given for participating,the U.S. may find another example of self esteem robbery. The U.S.response to Covid is deplorable. Period..and certainly not to be confused or compared with anybody else. The numbers.
So if you are suggesting that the US would have less death had we followed a Swedish model rather than the one laid out by Trump and his team of experts,have at it..and while you kick that around I will try to figure out why Klasna,Armstrong and Horner achieved greatness in bike racing while I spent my own money on bikes,tires wheels,entry and travel..and in the end I also stood on the top step..of my self built podium to get my rig onto the car roof rack.
I have personally felt utter disgust,listening to U.S. Government officials talk about the U.S. compared with other countries..why? For what? What comfort or confidence can an American find in hearing that Spain or France isn't so hot because look at their slight increase in cases.?
The U.S.is failing period,the unit(s) of measure are clear.
Deaths
Cases
Infection
and as significant,public messaging and percentage of the population thus far exposed. Fall is coming.
You know who, made plenty of preposterous predictions..from it's a hoax,it's a cold or flu,kids don't get it,it's under control,it will go away,it will go away when it gets warm, only 15 cases, only @50,000 dead,a test for anybody who wants one,
My fingers hurt from the official US government misinformation.
And please feel free to slam me if you think I am cherry picking..I didn't include the dozens of derivatives on masks and social distancing, malaria drug data dumbness.
Americans can't watch the classics or the Tour dFrance in person because of our collective,national failure.
College football up in the air..why?
School reopening..up in the air why?
Clorox wipes not in stores..why?
Hospitals and nursing homes still without procedures and PPE. Why?
And now at risk older Americans and veterans unable to get reliable delivery of medication by mail? What? Why? and part of the answer is dismantling,debilitating an essential service during a pandemic? Are you F-ing kidding me!!!?
But in true American new style..we have tossed " if it ain't broke don't fix it" with" F everything up just cause you can"
Covid is a world tragedy, the U.S.response to Covid is a world travesty..we should be profoundly ashamed as a country.

 
So across the world, see a big highly attended public events..@10-16 days later everything kind of bubbles up..in Baja the weather is crazy hot,school is getting ready to start..beaches are packed,karaoke machines o' plenty..parties everywhere..got a feeling.
San Diego..temps are absolutely blistering,especially inland,crowded beaches and lots of college students partying..
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Do5cyd41s2U

Have not been to Georgia since my last bike purchase,but if what I see and what is being reported is half true
And all our children are returning to school..
Look out
 
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So across the world, see a big highly attended public events..@10-16 days later everything kind of bubbles up..in Baja the weather is crazy hot,school is getting ready to start..beaches are packed,karaoke machines o' plenty..parties everywhere..got a feeling.
San Diego..temps are absolutely blistering,especially inland,crowded beaches and lots of college students partying..
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Do5cyd41s2U

Have not been to Georgia since my last bike purchase,but if what I see and what is being reported is half true
And all our children are returning to school..
Look out

Are you referring to things like this at ECU? (For those who don't know ECU is Eastern Carolina University.) ECU is well known as a major party school, and that apparently is not slowed down by a pandemic.


 
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People did social distance. Those models assumed that people would do no mitigation at all. I think Sweden will be prone to a second peak in the fall if they don't take any precautions.

I have yet to see any real evidence that T cell cross reactivity is playing a role in the decrease in Sweden or elsewhere. Their decline is pretty typical of a seasonal decrease that many expected.

In hindsight, Sweden took important precautions by banning gatherings and closing schools for older kids. Preventing super spreading is a big curb on R.
Some of the images I've seen of Stockholm didn't look like much social distancing with groups of young people socializing at some of their pubs & bars. They did ban gatherings of more than 50 people but allowed gyms, bars, restaurants, salons, sports practices, K-8 schools, daycare & their borders to remain open. I would call this very soft restrictions at the most. And they never wore masks - not then and not now.

The model by Gardner et al was completely off:


What is already known?
  • The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly in Europe and globally since March 2020.
  • Mitigation and suppression methods have been suggested to slow down or halt the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most European countries have enacted strict suppression measures including lockdown, school closures, enforced social distancing; while Sweden has chosen a different strategy of milder mitigation as of today (10 April 2020).
  • Different national policy decisions have been justified by socio-geographic differences among countries. Such differences as well as the tempo and stringency of public-health interventions are likely to affect the impact on each country’s mortality and healthcare.
What this study adds?

- Individual-based modelling of COVID-19 spread using Swedish demographics and conservative epidemiological assumptions indicates that the peak of the number of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 can be expected in early May under the current strategy, shifted earlier and attenuated with more stringent public healthmeasures.
  • Healthcare needs are expected to substantially exceed pre-pandemic capacity even if the most aggressive interventions considered were implemented in the coming weeks. In particular the need for intensive care unit beds will be at least 40-fold greater than the pre- pandemic capacity if the current strategy is maintained, and at least 10-fold greater if strategies approximating the most stringent in Europe are introduced by 10 April.
  • Our model predicts that, using median infection-fatality-rate estimates, at least 96,000 deaths would occur by 1 July without mitigation. Current policies reduce this number by approximately 15%, while even more aggressive social distancing measures, such as adding household isolation or mandated social distancing can reduce this number by more than 50%.
So, they say Sweden's current policies would only reduce the estimate by 15%, which would be 82,000 - nowhere near their current number of deaths at 5,787. And 70% of the deaths are from the elderly care centers with 88% age 70 or older.

Though their deaths per 1 million population is one of the highest in Europe (573) it's still lower than Belgium (857), Spain (612), UK (609) & Italy (586) with Spain & Italy implementing very restrictive "confinement to home" lockdowns.
 
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Speaking of Belarus: 65 yr old President Lukashenko had the Coronavirus and says he was asymptomatic.:oops: I guess he's in much better shape than BJ (Lukashenko does play hockey & drink vodka).


Uh oh...Lukashenko didn't like the conditions set by the World Bank for Coronavirus financial aid:

 
Some of the images I've seen of Stockholm didn't look like much social distancing with groups of young people socializing at some of their pubs & bars. They did ban gatherings of more than 50 people but allowed gyms, bars, restaurants, salons, sports practices, K-8 schools, daycare & their borders to remain open. I would call this very soft restrictions at the most. And they never wore masks - not then and not now.
I would not judge the behavior of populations based on anecdotal images. Based on mobility data that I had seen during the peak, the mobility of people in 'Open' Sweden was similar to the mobility of people in 'Lockdown' USA. I don't think there is disagreement that Sweden had looser restrictions than most places. Our main disagreement is that I think that was a bad decision. The early data comparing them with their Scandinavian peers supports my argument, but it is still too early to tell definitively. Comparing them to Spain or elsewhere is not a good apples to apples comparison as Hrotha has alluded to above. People are going to behave similarly no matter what the rules are. But, you can effect things on the margins, which can have meaningful effects and you can see that when you compare Sweden to Norway or Denmark. If I lived in Sweden, I would be very upset that they triaged old people out of potential care and would seriously question why we performed worse than our neighbors.
  • Our model predicts that, using median infection-fatality-rate estimates, at least 96,000 deaths would occur by 1 July without mitigation. Current policies reduce this number by approximately 15%, while even more aggressive social distancing measures, such as adding household isolation or mandated social distancing can reduce this number by more than 50%.
So, they say Sweden's current policies would only reduce the estimate by 15%, which would be 82,000 - nowhere near their current number of deaths at 5,787. And 70% of the deaths are from the elderly care centers with 88% age 70 or older.
I think you are focusing on the granular details while missing the larger point. The actual projections were clearly way off, possibly because the CFR was unrealistic. Upthread, there has been plenty of discussion of how that is typically overestimated early in an epidemic. 5% vs 0.5% makes a big difference and any model is only as good as the numbers you plug into it. The models should be a lot better now. The estimate of 100-200K deaths in the USA that was made early on is looking pretty good. A lot of people thought that was unrealistic, but we are at 170,000 now. But the larger importance of modeling was how behavioral changes could alter the numbers from the baseline projection. The imperial college projection really was flawed as no population will be unresponsive to a pandemic. Businesses will be open, but patrons will stop visiting if there is a realistic threat of contagion. That is also a flaw in getting to herd immunity. People are just not going to march blissfully to their fate.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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Sweden has universal care, US does not.
Sweden by household has less obesity,less housing and food insecurity. In the United States it's a rampant epidemic.
social services..don't think that given our countries recent histories that a litmus test for access in either country will yield anything..but using history,the U.S.has many more centuries of denying services to citizens
Which, of course, explains why the US COVID Death Rate is actully (slightly) better than Sweden.

The U.S.response to Covid is deplorable. Period..and certainly not to be confused or compared with anybody else.
Again, pointing to the death rate we are about mid-pack. Room for improvement? Certainly. Deplorable? No, unless this is a political point... then call it whatever you like.

The U.S.is failing period,the unit(s) of measure are clear.
Deaths
Cases
Infection
Wrt deaths you simply are being fed a load of garbage. Go look it up. When you do that.... back out the numbers from States that sent elderly covid positives back to skilled nursing homes (a real, real bad decision having nothing to do with current admin) and do a quick re-calculation.


College football up in the air..why?
Politics

School reopening..up in the air why?
Politics. Read the UTLA Manifesto:

https://www.utla.net/sites/default/files/samestormdiffboats_final.pdf

Clorox wipes not in stores..why?
Hoarders mostly. Same with TP.

Hospitals and nursing homes still without procedures and PPE. Why?
Mostly BS here. Same could be said ventilators except everyone who needed ventilator, you know, got one. Like magic.

Covid is a world tragedy, the U.S.response to Covid is a world travesty..we should be profoundly ashamed as a country.
I can imagine you have been profoundly ashamed of being American for periods stretching well before our COVID response.
 
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