Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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No...I don't believe anything the CCP says- maybe you do but not me. Like CG stated above "3 deaths per million" in China is comedy gold. I have a lot of information & links on the China situation that would surprise you to no end. On another forum participate in political issues surrounding COVID-19 are allowed to be discussed, but I understand not here. I have an opinion why the CCP would allow that video to be released - I'll leave it at that. ;)
The facts are different countries and even different states are at varying stages in combatting COVID19, so have different levels of restrictions in place - So what if Wuhan is allowing gatherings of more than 100 people - Authorities will make decisions that suit their individual circumstances - You are the one who is trying to bring politics into this thread - We are discussing a picture of a large gathering purportedly from Wuhan - Nothing more or nothing less.
 
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Reading Gadsen's post makes me think we should end the world today - Their thoughts seem to be out of touch with reality - And if we follow their thoughts through logically there is no NEED for schools at all - You can home school without paying school fees.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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Reading Gadsen's post makes me think we should end the world today - Their thoughts seem to be out of touch with reality - And if we follow their thoughts through logically there is no NEED for schools at all - You can home school without paying school fees.
In a lot of ways the world has already ended.

My conclusion is simply a logical path of where Tech driven societies already are. Kids don't interact with people much anymore. Video games, smart phones & tablets... one has to wonder how many families actually converse with each other around the dinner table. It won't be too long in the future where the human brain will be able to merge with AI, so the need for schooling in a tradition sense will undoubtedly change dramatically.

I'm completely open to other ideas of how to keep our kids 100% safe from COVID, I just can't think of any.
 
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The point here is you can take death rate of all Countries with a grain of salt.
All 200+ countries? Really? Everyone is lying, so the U.S., which is telling the truth, is doing better than all of them?

Sure, there are a few countries that have undoubtedly underreported. As I said before, several southern hemisphere countries, no doubt. These nations also have among the worst health care resources in the world, so comparing the U.S. to them is hardly something that makes America look good.

To be fair, the developed countries tend to have a higher proportion of older people, which skews their death rates. But countries like Germany, Australia, New Zealand, S. Korea, Thailand, and Japan, and many more, have managed to control the virus far better than the U.S. has. Even when rates suddenly rise again, these countries are in far better position to bring them down again than we are.

What really depresses me about your attitude is that you don't seem to understand that painting the best possible picture of the U.S. response is not in America's interest. It's one thing to try to find some reason for optimism, another to be totally unrealistic.

If you want to improve anything, you should always be your harshest critic. If Isis were pulling off a major terrorist incident in the U.S. every week (resulting in far, far fewer deaths than COVID), you wouldn't talk about how the situation is just as bad in Europe. You would insist that the incidents be stopped, immediately. And if they were stopped, you wouldn't be satisfied to let Isis continue spreading its territory, always threatening more terrorist attacks, because "the mortality rate from Isis is now very low".

From Unchained’s link:

As of the week of May 31, fewer than one-third of the weekly coronavirus cases were from nursing homes in Sunbelt states. But by the week starting July 26, that share was 78%.
Further support for my analysis, and Cuomo’s. Obviously, there were no hospital patient transfers during this period, so why did the NH deaths rise so much in the south and west? Because these were the states with the really high case rates, which increases the number of NH staff members who get infected and potentially infect patients.

“The reality is that (a) facility’s infection control practices is the number one factor leading to the spread of COVID within these facilities,”
Yes, and this explains much of the earlier differences in states with similar case rates. E.g., MA and also RI, which also had reported testing problems, and which at the end of May had the highest rate (deaths/total patients) in the country, at about 13%.
 
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I have been reading a lot of questionable logic about the ~35- 50% or so people who might have pre-existing cross reactive T cells from prior coronavirus infections. Even some doctors are speculating that this means herd immunity would be 20% infection. That is highly doubtful. Even one of the authors who discovered this cross reactivity has poured cold water on the idea. That does not mean that T cells are unimportant.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1293346645560582144
 
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I have been reading a lot of questionable logic about the ~35- 50% or so people who might have pre-existing cross reactive T cells from prior coronavirus infections. Even some doctors are speculating that this means herd immunity would be 20% infection. That is highly doubtful. Even one of the authors who discovered this cross reactivity has poured cold water on the idea. That does not mean that T cells are unimportant.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1293346645560582144

With t-cells showing memory, I think it may mean that herd immunity may eventually be possible at least to a point as people will still get it and get sick, but not as sick and we'll have better treatments to get you over it faster. I'm hopeful that this means a vaccine will be helpful as well.
 
For the whole reopening schools and having a plan in place. We now have this from Duke U. They appear to be highly unhappy with a few students breaking their Covid related rules.

 
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Chris if you want to go broad I can, Texas,Florida,Georgia, Mississippi,Alabama, Tennessee, N and S.Dakota, Missouri,Kansas,Nebraska..there is a partial list of sub governments that have rejected medical advice given by the federal government advisors. And each one of those states have dozens of independent actors, from mayors, sheriff s, people at local health and town offices, basically with a degree in parking tickets or traffic signal maintenance and repair setting health policy based on how they feel. And if you need basic in your face, Google slop you can go with Georgia, which on almost every level has proven itself a complete national embarrassment. The schools are now,but here is an easier to understand version of the problems..


 
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This is every state in the US.. No common anything, estimated at national governors association meeting and national mayors conference, that billions have been invested by individual states and municipalities, competing for Personal Protective Equipment( PPE) and emergency response services. So unless stated had the ability to communicate effectively during this time of emergency, California was bidding for masks and gowns,raising the price,add New Jersey and Michigan..vendor does some negotiating and sells the equipment to Canada or Argentina,Saudi Arabia.. Basic economic principles. For decades, federal and local laws set up to prohibit price gouging and racketeering, profiteering. But federal government officials decided to teach a brutal,bungled and deadly lesson in Laissez faire econ..
those same policies are being used for testing supplies and the supply chain. Big and small states have created a quasi federal procurement office.
 
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All should remember that if the original claims by the U.S. Government officials were even partially true things would be significantly different. There was no testing,there still is no testing. We don't know who is infected,we don't know who is not. We are still essentially blind. Dr.Scott Gottlieb a common TV and radio contributor,estimated from data collected that less than 9% of the population has been exposed so far in the US.
 
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All should remember that if the original claims by the U.S. Government officials were even partially true things would be significantly different. There was no testing,there still is no testing. We don't know who is infected,we don't know who is not. We are still essentially blind. Dr.Scott Gottlieb a common TV and radio contributor,estimated from data collected that less than 9% of the population has been exposed so far in the US.

Add this one of the local universities that is process of reopening has exactly zero plans on testing most of the students. This is NC State U. UNC (Chapel Hill) has reclosed less than a week after opening due to 4 different out breaks. Above on this page is the article about Duke U and students not following protocol.
 
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View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4L9fJBCKO7Q


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QRcVqVA8_Y8


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MZNChm1XvQw


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e127t6Ry-oE


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gGxibV8Hld0


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yLfl9pHQTzI


There are just so many government actors that without a coordinator this was assured to happen. There are hundreds and hundreds of these examples nationwide from just police..
When we started this new way of life,years ago,disregarding laws and courts, it was terrible,but even then all this anarchy was manageable, but when law enforcement makes up their own laws on the fly and done void of logic and facts, we arrive here..
173,979 dead and families and friends,communities suffering.
 
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The point here is you can take death rate of all Countries with a grain of salt. China at 3 per million is laughable. Or we could look at Cuba. 3,300 cases and 8 deaths per million. Palestine, 22 deaths per million. Costa Rica? 60 per million right next door to Panama at 414 per million. Then there's Peru at 802 per million and neighbors Bolivia and Ecuador in the mid-300's.

Brazil, 511, Chile, 549, Argentina, 130 and Uraguay..... 12.

This all sounds very legitimate. No really.
You can still compare countries with similar testing capabilities.
 
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4L9fJBCKO7Q


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QRcVqVA8_Y8


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MZNChm1XvQw


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e127t6Ry-oE


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gGxibV8Hld0


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yLfl9pHQTzI


There are just so many government actors that without a coordinator this was assured to happen. There are hundreds and hundreds of these examples nationwide from just police..
When we started this new way of life,years ago,disregarding laws and courts, it was terrible,but even then all this anarchy was manageable, but when law enforcement makes up their own laws on the fly and done void of logic and facts, we arrive here..
173,979 dead and families and friends,communities suffering.
You left out the Idaho Sheriff who also proved that having an IQ over 80 isn't necessary to hold his job.

We can't let science, let alone common sense and basic reasoning, get in the way of stupidity.
 

Chris Gadsden

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All 200+ countries? Really? Everyone is lying, so the U.S., which is telling the truth, is doing better than all of them?
No, you had it at ’everyone is lying.’ The CCP has an enormous incentive to under-report and Healthcare providers in the USA have enormous incentive to over-report. Did the patient die from COVID or with COVID?

Protocols determining cause of death from COVID vary from Nation to Nation. How can we take seriously the death numbers from China for example?


What really depresses me about your attitude is that you don't seem to understand that painting the best possible picture of the U.S. response is not in America's interest. It's one thing to try to find some reason for optimism, another to be totally unrealistic.
You misunderstand, I don’t think the numbers in the US paint a pretty picture at all. I just don‘t think you can look at what’s reported as gospel. I don’t believe any Nation’s numbers. Many Nations have no idea what’s going on - with any certainty - and the one’s that do are lying through their teeth. Why? Politics. If you want to be depressed about something be depressed about that.


If you want to improve anything, you should always be your harshest critic.
Well, okay. Me being critical of the US response and reporting of COVID changes what?
 
Did the patient die from HIV or with HIV? That would be the argument if the AIDS pandemic had struck this year. The scientists who claimed that HIV didn't cause AIDS and that the medications to treat HIV are what is killing people would be on the morning shows and shared by millions on facebook. It is all so profoundly depressing.

It bears repeating that the official COVID-19 statistics are wrong for every country in the world whether intentional or not. But all-cause mortality figures are more difficult to dispute. And by that measure, the death toll in the USA is already over 200,000. Not every death is classified correctly as there are some legitimately difficult cases for older people who are generally not the picture of health before the virus. But that also holds true for flu. The 60,000 per year number thrown about is an estimate and a much higher figure than the number of people who actually test positive for flu and die. You should either trust the epidemiology for both or neither.

ETA. There is a new poll about COVID vaccines that can be seen if you look for @ryanstruyk on twitter. It is a doozy but it is too political to post. What everybody can do is convince people around them to get the vaccine when it is available. But if those numbers are reflective of society, I think people will have to be paid to get the vaccine if we want adequate coverage. The people who want to go back to life as usual seem like the ones least likely to want the vaccine. That is remarkable.
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk
 
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“Can we safely have two teams meet on the field? I would say yes,” Wolfe told The Daily. “Will it be tough? Yes. Will it be expensive and hard and lots of work? For sure. But I do believe you can sufficiently mitigate the risk of bringing COVID onto the football field or into the training room at a level that’s no different than living as a student on campus.”

IMO, the universities won't meet the standard that Wolf is referring to so no, games can't be played safely.

165,000 people have never died from the flu in seven months. The long term neurological, cardiac, endocrine issues that are emerging with C19 have already surpassed the type of example that you shared.
This:


Micheal Ackerman M.D. Ph.D
Mayo Clinic Windland Smith Rice Sudden Death Genomics Laboratory.


"Michael Ackerman isn’t a college football fan."

"The Mayo Clinic genetic cardiologist has been to two college football games in his life."

"But if we have college football this fall, Dr. Ackerman will be one of the reasons why. His perspective on myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart, helped the Big 12 hold off on canceling its season, which would have set off a string of dominos that could have doomed college football last week. Without the Big 12, the ACC would have likely dropped out, and it would have been increasingly difficult for the SEC to move forward alone. The fate of the 2020 season hinged on the biggest wild card of the Power 5 conferences."

"The Minnesota-based cardiologist leads the Windland Smith Rice Sudden Death Genomics Lab which studies, among other things, sudden death in young athletes. He explained to the Big 12′s leaders that a new myocarditis study in the Journal of American Medical Association that sparked panic across college sports didn’t have the “bandwidth” to be transferable in a useful way. The study, conducted in Germany and composed of middle-aged adults, found that 78 percent of the 100 participants had some cardiac abnormality. Ackerman said it’d be a “scientific foul” to infer that those findings are relevant for 18 to 24-year old athletes.
"You cannot make that leap," Ackerman exclaimed."

"He used a soup analogy to explain how to weigh myocarditis, among other COVID-19 related issues, in whether to play football this fall. The conferences that canceled their seasons, he explained, stirred myocarditis in as a primary ingredient into their soup and then declared the soup tasted bad. Ackerman advised the Big 12 and Conference USA leaders to take myocarditis out of that equation, and if they still felt like the soup tasted bad, then that was their reason to cancel."

I'd say follow the science over politics.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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It bears repeating that the official COVID-19 statistics are wrong for every country in the world whether intentional or not. But all-cause mortality figures are more difficult to dispute. And by that measure, the death toll in the USA is already over 200,000. Not every death is classified correctly as there are some legitimately difficult cases for older people who are generally not the picture of health before the virus. But that also holds true for flu. The 60,000 per year number thrown about is an estimate and a much higher figure than the number of people who actually test positive for flu and die. You should either trust the epidemiology for both or neither.
Add in different protocols Nation-to-Nation and it becomes difficult to know who's doing a great or poor job.
 
This:


Micheal Ackerman M.D. Ph.D
Mayo Clinic Windland Smith Rice Sudden Death Genomics Laboratory.


"Michael Ackerman isn’t a college football fan."

"The Mayo Clinic genetic cardiologist has been to two college football games in his life."

"But if we have college football this fall, Dr. Ackerman will be one of the reasons why. His perspective on myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart, helped the Big 12 hold off on canceling its season, which would have set off a string of dominos that could have doomed college football last week. Without the Big 12, the ACC would have likely dropped out, and it would have been increasingly difficult for the SEC to move forward alone. The fate of the 2020 season hinged on the biggest wild card of the Power 5 conferences."

"The Minnesota-based cardiologist leads the Windland Smith Rice Sudden Death Genomics Lab which studies, among other things, sudden death in young athletes. He explained to the Big 12′s leaders that a new myocarditis study in the Journal of American Medical Association that sparked panic across college sports didn’t have the “bandwidth” to be transferable in a useful way. The study, conducted in Germany and composed of middle-aged adults, found that 78 percent of the 100 participants had some cardiac abnormality. Ackerman said it’d be a “scientific foul” to infer that those findings are relevant for 18 to 24-year old athletes.
"You cannot make that leap," Ackerman exclaimed."

"He used a soup analogy to explain how to weigh myocarditis, among other COVID-19 related issues, in whether to play football this fall. The conferences that canceled their seasons, he explained, stirred myocarditis in as a primary ingredient into their soup and then declared the soup tasted bad. Ackerman advised the Big 12 and Conference USA leaders to take myocarditis out of that equation, and if they still felt like the soup tasted bad, then that was their reason to cancel."

I'd say follow the science over politics.
Interesting article. They will build statues to this doctor in the south if they finish the season. I am guessing he made a more persuasive argument in person, because he basically is saying in this article that we don't know if the heart data translates to younger athletes, so let's play anyway and find out?

I am going to listen to this on my commute home. It sounds like it is a discussion between him and a doctor from the Pac 12 who feels the opposite about the issue.

View: https://twitter.com/MayoClinic/status/1295431450972631041
 
Evidence now that everyone infected developes long-term immunity from T cells:



This is great news - memory T cells from coronavirus can stick around for years. But it shouldn't be a surprise since that's how a healthy immune system functions against viral & bacterial infections. And a healthy diet, excercise, adequate sleep and good vitamin D3 levels all contribute to and maintain a healthy immune system
 
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