Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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I have heard anecdotal evidence that 80% of students are trying their best to follow the guidelines at schools related to COVID-19, but that 20% though.... Someone I follow on twitter compared it to having peeing and non-peeing sections in a pool. To get to live college football, the schools are going to have to weather the virus burning through the 20% and the collateral damage to the 80%. Should be very interesting to watch. I think the weak links will be Notre Dame, UNC, and U Texas. If they break, the whole chain falls.

View: https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1295898862343856129
 
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I have heard anecdotal evidence that 80% of students are trying their best to follow the guidelines at schools related to COVID-19, but that 20% though.... Someone I follow on twitter compared it to having peeing and non-peeing sections in a pool. To get to live college football, the schools are going to have to weather the virus burning through the 20% and the collateral damage to the 80%. Should be very interesting to watch. I think the weak links will be Notre Dame, UNC, and U Texas. If they break, the whole chain falls.

View: https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1295898862343856129
The college football season is done. ND holds on as their greed has them pretty much standing alone on lost revenue, doesn't it? I'd blame the school administration for the consequences if it becomes a community nightmare.
 
I agree that ND would be classified as a greedy football school. But, I think they still want to be portrayed as representing something nobler than their brethren. Remember the whole Miami vs ND rivalry? They are dealing with a sizable outbreak and have canceled in person classes for a couple weeks. Reading between the lines, it seems like they are telling the students to shape up or ship out. They sent their students home in the spring. If that happens for the fall, I don't see how they can keep up the facade and still play the games. Most of the other schools in the SEC or elsewhere in the holdout conferences have no such delusions of grandeur.
 
Did the patient die from HIV or with HIV? That would be the argument if the AIDS pandemic had struck this year. The scientists who claimed that HIV didn't cause AIDS and that the medications to treat HIV are what is killing people would be on the morning shows and shared by millions on facebook. It is all so profoundly depressing.

It bears repeating that the official COVID-19 statistics are wrong for every country in the world whether intentional or not. But all-cause mortality figures are more difficult to dispute. And by that measure, the death toll in the USA is already over 200,000. Not every death is classified correctly as there are some legitimately difficult cases for older people who are generally not the picture of health before the virus. But that also holds true for flu. The 60,000 per year number thrown about is an estimate and a much higher figure than the number of people who actually test positive for flu and die. You should either trust the epidemiology for both or neither.

ETA. There is a new poll about COVID vaccines that can be seen if you look for @ryanstruyk on twitter. It is a doozy but it is too political to post. What everybody can do is convince people around them to get the vaccine when it is available. But if those numbers are reflective of society, I think people will have to be paid to get the vaccine if we want adequate coverage. The people who want to go back to life as usual seem like the ones least likely to want the vaccine. That is remarkable.
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk
Several weeks ago I posted about a local nurse who was treating Covid19 patients, contracted it, and then died (40 years old, healthy, no preexisting...). The C19 had significantly compromised her cardiac muscle along with the typical respiratory damage with C19. A local politician, and a few hate groups made a big deal out of her not dying from Covid, but with Covid. Their claim was that she died because her heart failed. No, she died because Covid made it so that her heart couldn't pump blood. She died of Covid.

Yes, the people who are the most vocal about 'getting back to normal' are the ones who refuse to do what it takes to get back to normal.
 
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Dr.Scott Gottlieb a common TV and radio contributor,estimated from data collected that less than 9% of the population has been exposed so far in the US.
That's about half of what many have been assuming. If it's true, though, the IFR is about 0.65%, in line with what studies in several large Euro countries have estimated.

Interesting article. They will build statues to this doctor in the south if they finish the season. I am guessing he made a more persuasive argument in person, because he basically is saying in this article that we don't know if the heart data translates to younger athletes, so let's play anyway and find out?
The average age of patients in that study was 49. If it had been 65, I think the doctor's point would have more support. Yes, men around twenty should have healthier hearts than those around fifty, but the latter age is still not one in which people are a lot more susceptible to cardiac problems.

A local politician, and a few hate groups made a big deal out of her not dying from Covid, but with Covid. Their claim was that she died because her heart failed.
Reminds me of the poster in the now defunct politics thread--who has since been banned--who claimed that the woman who died from being run over by a car at that white supremacist rally in VA had died from a heart condition.

There is a video with a light box and a high speed camera that shows droplets without a mask, with a single layer cotton, double layer cotton, surgical. Did someone post it up thread? I'll see if I can find it again...
Keep in mind that different kinds of techniques reveal different sizes of droplets. Thus laser light detects relatively larger particles that will settle to the ground relatively quickly, while particle counters measure smaller droplets that may remain airborne for some time. Further complicating the situation is that smaller particles are less likely to contain virus, or infectious numbers of viral particles.

Still another critical factor is that many studies indicate that some individuals produce large quantities of droplets, while others produce relatively small quantities. Masks of almost any kind would probably be more effective for the former group.

The bottom line is that masks are most effective in protecting others from the mask wearer, not the other way around. The latter is a bonus, but not something anyone should depend on.
 
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I think that Americans can really really really learn from this pandemic experience and come out of it much stronger in every way.
medical care delivery and availability. A fatal flaw,literally has been having a health care system that is tied to employment. It has completely failed on every level..first and foremost,was the categorization of essential workers. Turns out that that was very very high in the service sector,w low wages and zero very limited benefits. Low wage,no benefit workers damaged the entire country. No insurance,no to limited sick days,and a ultra hand to mouth methodology,that had workers who were sick or suspected that they were going to work. Disaster.
testing and reporting, not much needs to be explained,complete failure, tests that take 10 days for results are worse than no test because of squandered resources.
And now with the return to school..it ties in with the other end of the population..internet access. Debates about internet,nationwide..for the young,to have access and capabilities for remote learning, and for the old Tele-health..providing decent medical care in places w no or limited medical resources..no hospital,no doctor and a long,expensive and maybe dangerous drive to get to services..if that's an option.
And stockpiling supplies..the United States still doesn't have PPE..and now schools and daycare centers,retirement homes, and small business all in bidding wars w one another because of no coordination and control of manufacturing and the supply chain.
It has to take your breath away that schools don't have months and months of standing stock but instead have rolled the dice with our kids and staff..gambling knowing the miserable track record..very troubling.



 
I think that Americans can really really really learn from this pandemic experience and come out of it much stronger in every way.
medical care delivery and availability. A fatal flaw,literally has been having a health care system that is tied to employment. It has completely failed on every level..first and foremost,was the categorization of essential workers. Turns out that that was very very high in the service sector,w low wages and zero very limited benefits. Low wage,no benefit workers damaged the entire country. No insurance,no to limited sick days,and a ultra hand to mouth methodology,that had workers who were sick or suspected that they were going to work. Disaster.
testing and reporting, not much needs to be explained,complete failure, tests that take 10 days for results are worse than no test because of squandered resources.
And now with the return to school..it ties in with the other end of the population..internet access. Debates about internet,nationwide..for the young,to have access and capabilities for remote learning, and for the old Tele-health..providing decent medical care in places w no or limited medical resources..no hospital,no doctor and a long,expensive and maybe dangerous drive to get to services..if that's an option.
And stockpiling supplies..the United States still doesn't have PPE..and now schools and daycare centers,retirement homes, and small business all in bidding wars w one another because of no coordination and control of manufacturing and the supply chain.
It has to take your breath away that schools don't have months and months of standing stock but instead have rolled the dice with our kids and staff..gambling knowing the miserable track record..very troubling.



We can learn from this, but I bet that we don't.
 
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I started working back at work on the 10th and it is a bit nerve racking. Everyone is wearing a mask because its company policy, but everyone wants to hang out like its 1999 (sorry Prince). Today a coworker who stands way to close when she comes into my office (too often) got put on quarantine until the 30th. Why? Because she was at a baby shower with about 20 other ladies INSIDE the soon to be grandmother's house and grandma and two others tested positive (granny and one are asympto, but other one bed ridden). Come the F on people!
 
I really really really want you to be wrong..so do you!!!

I got tested today at the VA clinic in Chula Vista. Drive up appointment,they are requiring a negative result to go in for a procedure.
two young women,I am assuming nurses, I got to the appointment @15 minutes early,sent a text saying "I am here" they came out,asked a few questions,had me roll up the window,blow my nose hard,roll it down, she explained that she was going to violently,power jam a skinny Q-tip into my skull,leave it there for @10 seconds..and done. She did it. I was done @5 minutes before my scheduled appointment time.
My last 2 were saliva and my Mexico test,the male nurse explained that they don't contact " good news people,only call w had news "
The VA sends info about not entering the clinics or hospitals directly,you confirm that you are outside in your car and they call or text to tell you were to go..you can walk into the ER according to a pre recorded message.
This week I have been contacted by the VA call center in Los Angeles..3 times..pretty fast I will add..the doctors and nurses responding are absolutely excellent. Really impressed with the rework since the pandemic..not happy that everything I needed done has been delayed since April,but given the circumstances overall satisfied. I know that there are plenty of VA Hospital horror stories but none are mine.
They said 24-48 hours for test results
 
Disturbing footage emerges of student dorm 'pandemic parties'
Nick Whigham
,
Yahoo News Australia20 August 2020


Students at a major university in the US have been thrown off campus for holding crowded parties in their dormitory rooms in breach of coronavirus restrictions.
Just days after students returned to campus at the University of Connecticut, footage of what has been dubbed by US media as “pandemic parties” surfaced on social media.
Students began returning to campus last Friday (local time) and had to take a mandatory coronavirus test before they were permitted back into the classroom.
All were supposed to limit their contact with others during their first 14 days back at school.
A Snapchat video of a dorm room party was posted on social media site Reddit in a dedicated university forum under the caption, “UConn, let’s be better than that”.
“Imagine being stupid enough to post incriminating evidence AND have your name attached to it,” one Reddit user wrote.
“This is beyond parody at this point. Not only do they disregard the bare minimum of safety, but they post it with faces online. It's a big ‘f*** you’ because they don't think the administration will do anything. UConn needs to make an example out of these people, otherwise, we're heading back [home] before September ends,” another student said.
A video of the dorm party was caught on Snapchat before being posted online. Source: Reddit
School officials notified the campus community of the disciplinary actions and investigations in a letter on Tuesday night (local time).
“Students were not wearing masks, closely assembled, and endangering not only their own health and wellbeing, but that of others at a time when UConn is working to protect our community and resume classes in the context of a deadly global pandemic,” the letter sent by Eleanor Daugherty, associate vice president and dean of students, and Pamela Schipani, executive director of residential life, said.
Temporary disciplinary action was taken against an undisclosed number of students and they were removed from student housing pending a school investigation, they said.
Speaking to local news station WFSB, a number of students said they had heard about dorm parties being organised or seen them being promoted by students online.
“I have heard of them, I feel if people were to get together maybe [it should be] later on when we know who’s negative and who is positive,” one student said.
“There [were] posts floating around on social media saying: ‘Stay safe - your party isn’t worth another death’,” another said.
Some students said partygoers were being shamed online for their antics. Source: WFSB
As of Wednesday (local time), UConn had received more than 5,000 coronavirus test results for on-campus students. Eight tested positive and are being isolated.
Three off-campus students also tested positive, along with two faculty and staff.
“There will undoubtedly be more positive cases as more test results are returning in the coming days, and we will address each the same way as we work to protect the health of individual students and our community,” Ms Daugherty said in a statement.
The university said there was no indication of a major outbreak in the dorms and said the students’ actions were not representative of the entire student body, most of which had been following the coronavirus protocols.


In the state of Connecticut, with a population of 3.5 million, there has been more than 51,310 recorded coronavirus cases and 4,457 deaths associated with COVID-19 during the pandemic so far.

Many US universities have changed course and moved all undergraduate classes online as schools struggle to contain outbreaks and students continue to gather in large groups without masks or social distancing.
The University of North Carolina ended in-person teaching for undergraduates this week just days after reopening, following the positive test results of dozens of students living in dorms and a fraternity house.


On Wednesday (local time), the University of Notre Dame in the state of Indiana canceled all in-person classes and moved all instruction online for at least two weeks as it reevaluates its safety protocols.
The school has recorded more then 220 known cases, which university officials have pinned the surge in infections to off-campus parties.
 
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That ncbi article is good, I have always been scared of finger fudge on handrails and door knobs.I don't do a complete catchers stance when using a public toilet,but an asz gasket,you bet. To see all of the data an physical representations of stuff that sprays out of our bodies is spooky, kind of yucky. If you read this stuff,look at the pictures and videos,see the unfolding data, and you don't want to wear a mask..ok. I for one will judge those people,I will imagine that licking the door handle at the bus station is not far fetched, that wiping their rear and picking their nose can be done all at once w one or both unwashed hands.

And for all the articles,all the news about college students making grave errors as they live their first adult experience away from home and parental supervision,did anybody really expect anything less? Really? News flashes that include 18,and 19 year old don't have great judgement,are not really news
 
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Chris G. posted this link about a month ago:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7293495/

It shows estimated densities and distributions of aerosol particles wearing or not wearing various kinds of masks, and in different airflow situations, such as travelling in an airplane or a car.
I like that they included a fig. for how much load the mask can reduce for the wearer. It has probably been pretty hard to miss my rants about mask wearing since March. While I certainly wear a mask to protect others, I also wear it to protect myself. Don't hear me typing that a mask keeps me from getting C19, I'm just saying that if my mask is reducing the load by 25% that reduces my chance of infection. If others are wearing a mask that reduces the load out, and mine is reducing the load in that can potential cut my chances in half or even more.
 
And for all the articles,all the news about college students making grave errors as they live their first adult experience away from home and parental supervision,did anybody really expect anything less? Really? News flashes that include 18,and 19 year old don't have great judgement,are not really news
College admins playing the role of Pontius Pilate.

See parents... we tried... but those darn kids ruined it....
 
A prominent Pathogist out of Germany, Professor Klaus Püschel, Director of the Institute for Forensic Medicine at the University Clinic Hamburg-Eppendorf, has performed over 100 autopsies on Covid-19 patients:


"Expert Püschel: The days of virologists are over"

"Shortly before the German chancellor’s consultation with her prime minister, the renowned forensic scientist Klaus Püschel appeals for a reopening of Germany. The time of virologists was over."

"With his team, he autopsied corona deaths in Hamburg: The forensic scientist Klaus Püschel now appeals to chancellor Angela Merkel to slowly reopen Germany. “Now is the right time”, Püschel tells the Hamburg Abendblatt [Hamburg Evening News]. He adds: “The days of virologists are over. We should now ask others what the right things [to do] are in this corona crisis, for example intensive care doctors.”

"According to his [autopsy] results, Covid-19 is “a comparatively harmless viral disease.” Germans needed to learn to live with it, namely without quarantine. All autopsied Covid deaths had severe illnesses and they would have “ —even if it sounds harsh — all died this year”, says Püschel."
 
I listened yesterday to a college sophomore in a radio interview.she was asked a series of questions about starting school,her schedule and her opinion about in person classes..the part that cracked me up was her response about the spread of the virus from students,faculty and on and off campus activity,she said " it's the school administration that gets paid to protect us"
I saw the video on Mexican TV, can't find it, shows the things expelled from breathing,coughing and sneezing.one panel shot is without a mask,all the others are with a variety of different mask types.
I also listened to a story from an LA area doctor that thinks the reason she has seen almost no flu or whooping cough cases is the behavior that people are taking to prevent Covid contraction also are preventative for other common viruses.
Dirt or others have a guess about how chair lifts are going to operate,post it. Sun Valley is fantastic and I hope that ski resort operations can continue with best practices.Mammoth Mountain in California is worth anybody's time and one of the things that makes it awesome is size and terrain. Even w proximity to L.A.and SF..it is never crowded on weekdays and that was before Corona. If they sell limited tickets and intentionally limit crowds, it will really really be great.


I received my campground refund in full,without asking from the place close to the track


I really hope that Covid is not the breaking point for so,so many types of racing and race venues
 
Tengell is in the news again:

"Sweden's disease expert says just wearing face masks could be very dangerous:"


Interestingly, too bad there couldn't be a debate between Tengell & Fauci - two diametrically opposing viewpoints.
 

Chris Gadsden

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Many US universities have changed course and moved all undergraduate classes online as schools struggle to contain outbreaks and students continue to gather in large groups without masks or social distancing.
The University of North Carolina ended in-person teaching for undergraduates this week just days after reopening, following the positive test results of dozens of students living in dorms and a fraternity house.
Close them all down permanently. We need to transition away from big groups being together in repetition for long periods of time. It's a time bomb.

Let's pretend a vaccine is produced in the next 6-months and let's also pretend it has 50% efficacy. With 100% coverage it would not take very long to see COVID rates of infection to nearly nothing.

But everyone here knows there will be nothing like 100% coverage. For "things" to get back to normal we will have to have a vaccine with 70% or greater efficacy and 80% or greater coverage. Does anyone really believe that either of those two will happen?

Beyond that, does anyone believe this will be the last viral outbreak?

So we need to shift away from schooling (and a bunch of other stuff) the way we have been doing it.
 
A prominent Pathogist out of Germany, Professor Klaus Püschel, Director of the Institute for Forensic Medicine at the University Clinic Hamburg-Eppendorf, has performed over 100 autopsies on Covid-19 patients:
“The days of virologists are over. We should now ask others what the right things [to do] are in this corona crisis, for example intensive care doctors.”
I don't know what the critical care people are saying over in Germany, but the ones here would not be on board with his suggestions. Of course, different viral burdens will necessitate different strategies.
"According to his [autopsy] results, Covid-19 is “a comparatively harmless viral disease.” Germans needed to learn to live with it, namely without quarantine. All autopsied Covid deaths had severe illnesses and they would have “ —even if it sounds harsh — all died this year”, says Püschel."
If this were true the all-cause mortality figures should be much lower for the next 6 months to compensate for people dying in March-July instead of later due to natural causes. So far, that is not the trend. Maybe something is lost in translation, but that is an awfully definitive assertion to make about the people who died. COVID-19 definitely took out a lot of people with poor health, but people with failing health can live for years with their conditions.
 
I listened yesterday to a college sophomore in a radio interview.she was asked a series of questions about starting school,her schedule and her opinion about in person classes..the part that cracked me up was her response about the spread of the virus from students,faculty and on and off campus activity,she said " it's the school administration that gets paid to protect us"
I saw the video on Mexican TV, can't find it, shows the things expelled from breathing,coughing and sneezing.one panel shot is without a mask,all the others are with a variety of different mask types.
I also listened to a story from an LA area doctor that thinks the reason she has seen almost no flu or whooping cough cases is the behavior that people are taking to prevent Covid contraction also are preventative for other common viruses.
Dirt or others have a guess about how chair lifts are going to operate,post it. Sun Valley is fantastic and I hope that ski resort operations can continue with best practices.Mammoth Mountain in California is worth anybody's time and one of the things that makes it awesome is size and terrain. Even w proximity to L.A.and SF..it is never crowded on weekdays and that was before Corona. If they sell limited tickets and intentionally limit crowds, it will really really be great.


I received my campground refund in full,without asking from the place close to the track


I really hope that Covid is not the breaking point for so,so many types of racing and race venues
I have no idea what ski areas will do. Sun Valley has the most resource$ though. Bogus Basin ran limited lifts for DH mountain biking this summer, but I haven't heard or read what their protocols are. Lodges and lift lines are the hot spots, but once on the hill it should be good. I've raced motorcycles and mountain bikes at Monmouth but never skied there, cool place!
 
Tengell is in the news again:

"Sweden's disease expert says just wearing face masks could be very dangerous:"


Interestingly, too bad there couldn't be a debate between Tengell & Fauci - two diametrically opposing viewpoints.
Tegnell's results:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/20/europe/sweden-deaths-highest-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html
 
And now we have this from NC State. Around 100 students/professors have tested positive and around 500 people are in quarantine for either testing positive or being in contact with someone who has.

 

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