Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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This is why opening schools is not a good idea:

I don't think the problem is the classroom, but I fully endorse online learning for college students.
View: https://twitter.com/dailytarheel/status/1295447961477033985
 
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But remember the Gates-funded Imperial College of London predicted 82,000 deaths by July 1 if strict mitigation measures weren't taken. They also predicted 40 million deaths globally. Nothing like being on target. Lol.
Remember how Stockholm was going to achieve herd immunity by the end of June? Plenty of spectacularly wrong predictions on either side.

Again, pointing to the death rate we are about mid-pack.
No, the U.S. is not mid-pack. It's very close to the bottom in overall mortality rate, which is the one that matters most.

Wrt deaths you simply are being fed a load of garbage. Go look it up. When you do that.... back out the numbers from States that sent elderly covid positives back to skilled nursing homes (a real, real bad decision having nothing to do with current admin) and do a quick re-calculation.
I've already debunked this upthread. There isn't a shred of evidence that any patient discharged from a hospital infected anyone in a NH, and considerable evidence that they couldn't have.
 
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Remember how Stockholm was going to achieve herd immunity by the end of June? Plenty of spectacularly wrong predictions on either side.



No, the U.S. is not mid-pack. It's very close to the bottom in overall mortality rate, which is the one that matters most.



I've already debunked this upthread. There isn't a shred of evidence that any patient discharged from a hospital infected anyone in a NH, and considerable evidence that they couldn't have.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is partly due to Gilead's testing of Remdesivir earlier, and now Regeneron and Eli Lilly doing the majority of their treatment testing (lab created anti bodies) in the US. Regeneron is supposed to start getting results of this treatment testing back by the end of Aug and hopefully get a report sometime in September for that. Although the treatment as a preventative will likely take more time for results to come back. From what I've gathered both Regeneron and Eli Lilly are hoping that if all goes well with the trials and the treatment (as treatment) works as well as they hope it does they might get emergency approval from the FDA by November.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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No, the U.S. is not mid-pack. It's very close to the bottom in overall mortality rate, which is the one that matters most.
G7 Countries;

Japan. 9 Deaths per million in population
Germany 111
Canada. 239
France. 466
USA. 524
Italy. 586
UK. 609

other developed nations;

Netherlands. 360
Sweden. 573
Belgium. 857
Spain. 613
Switzerland. 230
Ireland. 359
Denmark. 107
Norway. 48
Austria. 51


China. 3


You let me know when you see something that doesn't make much sense.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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I've already debunked this upthread. There isn't a shred of evidence that any patient discharged from a hospital infected anyone in a NH, and considerable evidence that they couldn't have.
I have not seen your post. Hopefully you are Not using the NY Health Dept report as source material.

“A controversial March 25 order to send recovering COVID-19 patients from hospitals into nursing homes that was designed to free up hospital bed space at the height of the pandemic has drawn withering criticism from relatives and patient advocates who contend it accelerated nursing home outbreaks.
Cuomo reversed the order under pressure in early May. And his health department later released an internal report that concluded asymptomatic nursing home staffers were the real spreaders of the virus, not the 6,300 recovering patients released from hospitals into nursing homes.
But epidemiologists and academics derided the study for a flawed methodology that sidestepped key questions and relied on selective stats, including the state’s official death toll figures.
“We’re trying to find out what worked and what didn’t work and that means trying to find patterns,” said Bill Hammond, who works on health policy for the nonprofit Empire Center think tank. “You can’t do that if you have the wrong data.””

https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f
 
I found this to be a really interesting article about recent ideas on asymptomatic cases, T cells, and the possible role of masks:


Go back a page and read the article I posted from the NY Times it's about a recent T-cell study saying that it's appearing that people with moderate (maybe mild) symptoms are developing T-cell memory for it.
 
G7 Countries;

Japan. 9 Deaths per million in population
Germany 111
Canada. 239
France. 466
USA. 524
Italy. 586
UK. 609

other developed nations;

Netherlands. 360
Sweden. 573
Belgium. 857
Spain. 613
Switzerland. 230
Ireland. 359
Denmark. 107
Norway. 48
Austria. 51


China. 3


You let me know when you see something that doesn't make much sense.
Even among those sixteen countries--all of which had less time to prepare than the U.S.--out of several hundred, the U.S. is in the bottom half. There are only a handful of countries in the entire world who have higher mortality rates than the U.S. that are not on those two lists. And if you look at just the past couple of months, the U.S. has the highest rate in the world, possibly excepting a few South American countries.

I have not seen your post.
I now see that Cuomo has published a report, two months after my post upthread, which makes basically the same points I did, along with some others, based on data that weren't available to me. I will just mention two of the key issues.

First, it's been known for at least four months that infectiousness peaks prior to appearance of symptoms, and is mostly gone within a few days to a week after. Several lines of evidence support this, including measurement of active virus as well as contact tracing studies. So any patient ready to be discharged from a hospital would be highly unlikely to be infectious. This information has been available to anyone who follows the science, but most journos have totally ignored it, and the few who didn't apparently can't put two and two together.

Your link, or a link within that link, says:

Dr. Mark Dworkin, a former Illinois state epidemiologist, said the finding that people don’t transmit the virus after nine days of illness applies in the population at large, but it’s not clear whether that’s true of nursing home residents who may have weaker immune systems and shed the virus longer.
For starters, this is purely speculative--there is no evidence at all bearing on the relationship of immune system strength and shedding. Second, the nine days is a maximum estimate. Infectiousness is thought to be very low sooner than that, within a week or less after symptoms appear. Third, according to the Cuomo report, nine days was the median length of the patient's stay in the hospital, but as also pointed out in the report, the patient usually doesn't go to the hospital the first day symptoms emerge. Patients generally wait several or more days before taking that step. So the nine days is a large underestimate of the time since symptom emergence. This point also addresses the other criticism in the link, that if nine days was the median period, there would have been some patients who had spent less time in the hospital than that before being admitted to the NH. That's true, but again, nine days in the hospital is much longer than nine days with symptoms, which itself is longer than is likely to be necessary..

There is further evidence, which your link ignores. Cuomo's team is aware of it, but IMO didn't fully capitalize on it.For the 44 states that reported nursing home deaths at the end of May, there was a very high correlation, close to 0.90, between deaths in NH and outside of them. The states with the highest number of NH deaths also had the highest number of deaths in the general population. IOW, what's driving NH deaths can't be hospital patients, but the same factors driving deaths outside of them. This is simply case rate, which in turn is highly correlated with population density. NJ, RI, CT and MA have the four highest PD in the country, and NYC has by far the highest of any city. So the entire NE corridor has been a breeding ground for the virus.

That NH deaths correlate with case rate in the surrounding community, rather than with patient transfers, is illustrated by many specific examples. CA, despite allowing transfer of hospital patients, has one of the lowest rates of NH deaths in the country, which is consistent with a more widely distributed population. (Note: by rate, I don't mean NH deaths as a % of total deaths, which is also relevant, but for a different reason. I mean NH deaths as a % of total NH population in that state). MA, which initially allowed transfer, but quickly reversed under pressure, has one of the highest rates (about 10%), consistent with its being in the NE corridor (these states all had rates on the order of 8-13%). Other states that ordered NH to accept hospital patients include PA, IL, MI and MN. All of them had moderate NH death rates (3-5%), nowhere near as high as those in the NE, but again, consistent with the presence of large urban areas. So even if one wants to claim that NY undercounted its NH deaths, which I'm quite willing to entertain, the correlation stands. It simply does not support the notion that hospital patient transfers had a significant effect on NH deaths.

All of this points to the conclusion of the Cuomo report, which I hadn't even seen before: NH deaths mostly have resulted from staff members, who go in and out daily, bringing in the virus, and the higher the case rate in the surrounding community, the more likely they are to be infected. The highest % of NH deaths tend to have occurred in states like MA, which was lax in testing during this period.

None of this is to say that Cuomo was blameless. As you probably know, Chris, many Democrats dislike Cuomo intensely. There's a reason that despite being governor of one of the most populous states in the U.S., in an election year when relatively few candidates had such impressive credentials, he didn't run for President.

At the time of his order, we didn't know how infectious these patients would be, and there is never zero risk. He can certainly be criticized for not testing the transferred patients. As I said before, I can even believe there's been an undercount of NH deaths, because the reported % of NH deaths/deaths outside of NH in NY is much lower than the national mean, as your link indicates. That is the other sense of rate of NH deaths, and certainly suggests undercounting.

But all this talk about how Cuomo has thousands of deaths on his hands is baloney. Nothing supports it at all. Your link speculates, plays what if games, which is fair enough in a serious life and death matter. It's entirely proper that the report should be criticized in the most detailed manner possible, so that something like this doesn't happen again. But the overwhelming evidence is against the conclusion that patient transfers were the source of many NH deaths. It's unsupported by measures of infectiousness, and totally inconsistent with the close correlation of NH deaths with other deaths throughout the entire country. There are other valid points made in the report, such as a lack of correlation with timing of patient transfers to peak of deaths.
 
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Go back a page and read the article I posted from the NY Times it's about a recent T-cell study saying that it's appearing that people with moderate (maybe mild) symptoms are developing T-cell memory for it.
I'm sure I saw it, I read a few articles like this lately, the one I just linked to adds other things to T-cell studies. Hopefully this is all good news.
 
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Chris feel free to check my numbers, Denmark is approximately the same landmass as California. With a population of 10 million,so about 25% of California number. Denmark has 1 government controlling the Covid response,also national health care,generous unemployment benefits and national social service network.
There are 1000's of governments in the US responsible for the Covid 19 response. And 1000's is low given that even elected and non elected sheriffs have implemented virus policy,so even the most tiny of town in the US may have a completely different strategy than another town w less than 10 miles between the two. Dirt can chime in on places like Idaho,were public officials went from " there is nothing to see here" " to the virus is serious in a 1 month cycle.
And unemployment and access to health care in the US has a zero to 100 scale,were at this point in the pandemic,certain Americans still don't have access to either.
Feel free also to superimpose Denmark's school reopening policy over the top of America..again trying to coordinate has shown just how uncoordinated the U.S. actually is..the question of if the U.S.can walk and chew gum at the same time is answered..over @170,000 + deaths and still no coordination.
And if that is not negative and discouraging enough, coordination has been stated as being unpatriotic, a technique of a nanny state.
The government is resisting even the basics..if you have an elderly family member in need of care, there is no registry to identify dangerous or safe facilities. In communities,you can't find out who died where,@7 months in..
I think others within and outside the US think that there are minimum levels,that every person at least has access to food or medical treatment during this pandemic, in the United States of America,that assumption is wrong.

 
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The numbers are what you get completely,you need to pay your rent,mortgage,car payment,insurance,gas,insurances,food and medical supplies and care for you and your family with the money. These funds usually expire after a few weeks..
The U.S.federal government is unable to find a plan to help supplement the citizens, they are on a vacation right now. The Covid numbers are predicted to increase after the close of summer American holiday,Labor Day which is observed Sep.7th.
 
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Thousands gather at a Wuhan water park for a musical festival over the weekend:


View: https://youtu.be/YS9dAAd08a8


Thousands packed in like sardines - absolutely no one wearing masks! If memory serves me right isn't Wuhan the impetus of this whole mess - "the shot heard round the world?" Did they mysteriously develop a vaccine? Has this virus magically disappeared from Wuhan so quickly? They don't seem to be too worried about getting infected.

This is ridiculous - here in a small Denver suburb we have one of the top 10 water parks in North America (Water World). About 2 million visitors a year with over 1000 employees, a lot of them HS & college kids. It's a huge revenue maker for this small municipality financing many of the city's services. The park was closed back in April with the initial lockdowns and any thought of opening mid-summer was suppressed by the government leaders here. Total economic destruction by the powers to be.

It's one of the hottest summers on record here in the Big D and yet Wuhan where this whole mess supposedly started "parties like it's 1999." Lol.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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There are 1000's of governments in the US responsible for the Covid 19 response. And 1000's is low given that even elected and non elected sheriffs have implemented virus policy,so even the most tiny of town in the US may have a completely different strategy than another town w less than 10 miles between the two.

The government is resisting even the basics..
Which of the "thousands" of Governments are you talking about??

And if that is not negative and discouraging enough, coordination has been stated as being unpatriotic, a technique of a nanny state.
Which is exactly what it is.
 
Thousands packed in like sardines - absolutely no one wearing masks! If memory serves me right isn't Wuhan the impetus of this whole mess - "the shot heard round the world?" Did they mysteriously develop a vaccine? Has this virus magically disappeared from Wuhan so quickly? They don't seem to be too worried about getting infected.

This is ridiculous - here in a small Denver suburb we have one of the top 10 water parks in North America (Water World). About 2 million visitors a year with over 1000 employees, a lot of them HS & college kids. It's a huge revenue maker for this small municipality financing many of the city's services. The park was closed back in April with the initial lockdowns and any thought of opening mid-summer was suppressed by the government leaders here. Total economic destruction by the powers to be.

It's one of the hottest summers on record here in the Big D and yet Wuhan where this whole mess supposedly started "parties like it's 1999." Lol.
There have been no local transmissions in the whole of China the past days, and there have been no local transmissions in Wuhan for quite a while. So that's a completely different situation than in much of the world.
 
Thousands gather at a Wuhan water park for a musical festival over the weekend:


View: https://youtu.be/YS9dAAd08a8


Thousands packed in like sardines - absolutely no one wearing masks! If memory serves me right isn't Wuhan the impetus of this whole mess - "the shot heard round the world?" Did they mysteriously develop a vaccine? Has this virus magically disappeared from Wuhan so quickly? They don't seem to be too worried about getting infected.

This is ridiculous - here in a small Denver suburb we have one of the top 10 water parks in North America (Water World). About 2 million visitors a year with over 1000 employees, a lot of them HS & college kids. It's a huge revenue maker for this small municipality financing many of the city's services. The park was closed back in April with the initial lockdowns and any thought of opening mid-summer was suppressed by the government leaders here. Total economic destruction by the powers to be.

It's one of the hottest summers on record here in the Big D and yet Wuhan where this whole mess supposedly started "parties like it's 1999." Lol.
Do you realise that Wuhan retested all their citizens in July for COVID19 ? Mainland China uses a color coded system which details your exposure to the virus - You would need to have the right color code to gain entry to the park - Mainland China uses a sophisticated tracking service in their battle against COVID19 and as recently evidenced in Beijing, Heilongjiang and Xinjiang they lock down quickly when outbreaks occur - Anyway it's good to look at pictures without doing any research - At the end of the day, countries within reason will try to get back to normality.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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Even among those sixteen countries--all of which had less time to prepare than the U.S.--out of several hundred, the U.S. is in the bottom half. There are only a handful of countries in the entire world who have higher mortality rates than the U.S. that are not on those two lists. And if you look at just the past couple of months, the U.S. has the highest rate in the world, possibly excepting a few South American countries.
The point here is you can take death rate of all Countries with a grain of salt. China at 3 per million is laughable. Or we could look at Cuba. 3,300 cases and 8 deaths per million. Palestine, 22 deaths per million. Costa Rica? 60 per million right next door to Panama at 414 per million. Then there's Peru at 802 per million and neighbors Bolivia and Ecuador in the mid-300's.

Brazil, 511, Chile, 549, Argentina, 130 and Uraguay..... 12.

This all sounds very legitimate. No really.
 
Do you realise that Wuhan retested all their citizens in July for COVID19 ? Mainland China uses a color coded system which details your exposure to the virus - You would need to have the right color code to gain entry to the park - Mainland China uses a sophisticated tracking service in their battle against COVID19 and as recently evidenced in Beijing, Heilongjiang and Xinjiang they lock down quickly when outbreaks occur - Anyway it's good to look at pictures without doing any research - At the end of the day, countries within reason will try to get back to normality.
No...I don't believe anything the CCP says- maybe you do but not me. Like CG stated above "3 deaths per million" in China is comedy gold. I have a lot of information & links on the China situation that would surprise you to no end. On another forum participate in political issues surrounding COVID-19 are allowed to be discussed, but I understand not here. I have an opinion why the CCP would allow that video to be released - I'll leave it at that. ;)
 

Chris Gadsden

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This is going to happen at every college in the United States. Credit to UNC for catching it early. I fear that most colleges will not be as vigilant.

View: https://twitter.com/Hammontreers/status/1295464420114604038
Well I have re-thought my position on this. Schools should close and remain closed permanently.

Public schools, K-12 should transition to 100% remote learning and use this time to work through challenges faced with being thrown in to the deep end virtually overnight. Re-imagining the future of public education would transition away from physical school building as kids would no longer congregate en mass. Re-train teachers to hone remote teaching skills. Invest in testing centers where proctored exams could take place (by appointment) to lessen transmission possibilities. Redirect funds to build/maintain physical schools towards building greater internet accessibility, tools, devices, etc.


A similar approach with higher education should be taken. STEM kids will need access to Labs and all need access testing centers, proctored, by appointment, safe. Remote learning will require additional infrastructure where percentages of tuition could be redirected towards these efforts for private colleges/universities and State schools can redirect funds from physical campus infrastructure.

Education should transition to distance learning being made permanent for a couple of important reasons: If there is a vaccine or vaccines developed there will be three questions that must be answered...Will it be prevent infection? Will it prevention disease? Will it reduce transmission disease? Unless the vaccine can answer affirmatively to the first two questions then there is no way to keep kids safe in large gatherings going forward. There is no 'acceptable' number of infections and it is very highly unlikely that any vaccine will be able to both prevent infection and prevent disease. The second reason is, as Bill Gates has said during his infamous TED talk in 2014, we are not ready for the next viral outbreak. One of the ways we get ready is to fundamentally transform regular, daily activities that place large numbers of people in confined spaced for long periods of time.

Schools have to be at the top of that list. We simply cannot go back to business as usual as it's only a matter of time before the next virus attacks the world's population. Let's lay the groundwork for better outcomes now.
 

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