Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Koronin]

You are ignoring serious cases. Yes a couple of thousand cases per week sounds bad but just 22 people are currently serious. Something is working?

That's my thought.

Also something I'm wondering is that t-cell memory gives some immunity, but it sounds like it doesn't prevent you from getting a virus. From what I'm understanding is that it will prevent you from getting the more serious side effects. So if you have t-cells you'll likely get either mild symptoms or be asymptomatic. Which means it will spread, but it won't cause major issues.

 

[Merckx index]

"A recent *preprint study published in bioRxiv, suggests that many people who contract SARS-CoV-2 but have mild or no clinical signs still develop so-called T-cell-mediated immunity to the virus, even in the absence of a positive antibody test. The researchers conclude that this is likely to mean that public immunity is probably higher than antibody testing has so far suggested.

The link says:

Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in.”

Sweden has about 8600 confirmed cases per million. If you multiply that by ten, to get roughly the number of people with Abs, then by another two, for T-cell immunity, they're still under 20% of the population. Stockholm will be higher, but not that much higher. In June, an Ab study reported that about 10% of the city's population was positive. Confirmed cases have risen by about 60% since the middle of June, so maybe 16% of the population now has Abs. Double that for T-cell immunity, and maybe one-third of the city's population has some form of immunity. There was another Ab study about a month ago that found 17.3% of the subjects were positive, though that was not a random sample. With T-cell immunity, maybe you can push Stockholm--not Sweden, but just the capital city--to 40%. That helps slow the spread a lot, but it is not herd immunity.

You also have to remember that T-cell immunity does not mean there is no spread, as Koronin notes. T cells reduce severity of symptoms, they don't necessarily prevent infections. We don't actually know whether individuals with only T-cell immunity to COVID harbor the virus and can spread it to others. The whole point of herd immunity is that such a large proportion of people are immune that the virus has nowhere to spread. But if it can still spread to people with T-cell immunity, then this may not contribute that much to herd immunity.

 

[Koronin]

The link says:



Sweden has about 8600 confirmed cases per million. If you multiply that by ten, to get roughly the number of people with Abs, then by another two, for T-cell immunity, they're still under 20% of the population. Stockholm will be higher, but not that much higher. In June, an Ab study reported that about 10% of the city's population was positive. Confirmed cases have risen by about 60% since the middle of June, so maybe 16% of the population now has Abs. Double that for T-cell immunity, and maybe one-third of the city's population has some form of immunity. That helps slow the spread, but it is not herd immunity.

Well slowing the spread is helpful. You need closer to 50% to get close to herd immunity? There is a thought that there are some communities (not boroughs) within NYC that are close to or just over 50% immunity with t-cells.

 

[djpbaltimore]

You are ignoring serious cases. Yes a couple of thousand cases per week sounds bad but just 22 people are currently serious. Something is working?

Honestly, this what they were saying in Georgia and Florida in June. Then they said that cases were going up, but the people infected were younger with less serious cases. Then July happened. Something is working...until it isnt. Trends are not written in stone. People should keep that in mind as we head into fall. Just because Covid didn't disappear in the summer doesn't mean that it doesn't have some seasonality and that it won't be worse in the fall and winter. The proverbial wind is at our backs now. That will change soon.

Regarding T cells. They generally kill virus infected cells. An antibody can prevent a cell from being infected. T cells are important, but there is a reason why vaccines are designed to elicit neutralizing antibodies. They target an earlier step.

 

[Merckx index]

Well slowing the spread is helpful. You need closer to 50% to get close to herd immunity? There is a thought that there are some communities (not boroughs) within NYC that are close to or just over 50% immunity with t-cells.

Herd immunity is generally defined as the % of the population that needs to be immune for R0 to drop below one. So it depends a lot on what other factors are in play, including masks, social distancing, etc. But usually the goal is for R0 to go below one without any social restrictions at all. That still depends on some factors that are hard to define precisely, but 65-75% is the likely range for SARS-CoV-2. That corresponds to an R0 of 2-4 for no immunity and no restrictions at all.

Also keep in mind that R0 < 1 just means that the virus will eventually die out. It doesn't mean that there will be an immediate halt to new cases and new deaths. As long as there is any spread, there will of course be some cases and deaths. R0 < 1 just means that the daily new cases are steadily declining, and will eventually, in theory, go to zero.

 

[jmdirt]

Life or death? I think I understand both sides of this debate. Lockdowns are not a sustainable strategy. Yes life needs to go on. The woman claims she has a medical condition that she can't wear a mask who are we to judge? If it was life or death I'd say not wearing a mask would have been made a criminal offense by now?

Well I guess we are all risking life or death when we walk out the front door in the morning. Heck we risk life or death when we ride. We can risk killing others when we drive a car. I hope you have equal sympathy for businesses, jobs and livelihoods currently being destroyed via restrictions? Mental health impacts?

I can understand being in her job would make her nervous but the cashier woman is young enough not to worry and I assume she wears a mask and gloves, employs personal hygiene and is sensible enough not to touch her face. If she has elderly or vulnerable relatives then they can be kept safe. I understand the concept of social responsibility but this is not a black and white concept. Life must go on and even Europe understands the economy is important which is why France, Belgium and Spain are now showing a second wave of infections.

OMFG!

Even though you are being disingenuously silly, I'll respond: if people would wear a mask in public all of those things that you added in, that weren't part of what I replied to, would be reduced. The people yelling the loudest about getting 'back to normal' are the people not willing to do what it takes to get there.

You said that not wearing a mask is benign so shooting a gun down the isle of the store is also benign right? There might not be bullets in the gun, the bullets might not hit anyone, the bullets might injure a few people, or the bullets might kill people, but benign right?

 

[Unchained]

This is hyperbole. I don't agree with her defiantly not wearing a mask which I think was socially irresponsible in the current climate but can you explain how the check out woman asking her to leave was fighting for her survival or livelihood ?

I see your point. In my view it is absolutely criminal by the woman not wearing a mask..in the U.S.there used to be almost a complete cultural overlay of understood things like wearing shoes,shirt..pants to certain private property venues,like restaurants and stores, but boundaries are there to be pushed,I get that.
however logical it seems in the woman's mind that the market is public space,it's not. The benmark, boiler plate for private establishments in the US used to go something like " we reserve the right to refuse service to anybody "
Not conforming with the mask policy is dealt with in a variety of ways,killing in the most extreme,stabbings,fighting,and then a few steps below w verbal wrestling and then the old tried and true just go someplace else.
I of course could try and guess how much the cashier is being paid..also I could guess that a manager or owner of the business set the policy,not the cashier..but all those guesses would be wrong and dumb..the humble cashier should be able to say,I am doing my job in accordance with store policy and that should be enough..
anybody arguing about the U.S.constitution,morality or health science at the cash register needs to be taken to a rubber room.
Go to another market

 

[Unchained]

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GSXueWAzJV8

 

[Unchained]

The only thing that appears to be constant in American behavior is a lack of a sense of time. This is a new virus..there are not years of extensive quality research. The idea that we can't wait for a bit before coming unglued is expected. It's part of American culture.

Coronavirus deaths worldwide by country | Statista

The total number of COVID-19 deaths worldwide has exceeded 2.5 million. The United States, Brazil, Mexico, and India remain the worst-hit countries.

www.statista.com

A time the US should be ashamed to be on the podium..

 

[Unchained]

This may not be funny to people,I have always had a thing about bars and music. I think that as an establishment owner you should be able to post without consequences..we have really really loud music inside,people will be at different states of drunkenness, you may seem offensive dancing or hear off color comments and speech,we cannot guarantee you will not be offended.
by reading and entering you have been warned and agree to the possible conditions inside.
As a kid there was a restaurant -saloon outside of town..It's when Scottsdale was how you described where you were because it was the nearest logical municipality.
in this establishment neck ties were prohibited on their posted dress code..most people wore a tie because it was a tradition to cut the tie midway and w w ten penny nail the removed part of the tie was pounded on to the wooden ceiling..I remember that some people didn't want their tie cut..sentimental,expensive,ect..they could just take it off and stash it in their pocket or car..
I certainly never ever remember a serious altercation taking place over the policy.
In my travels I have seen different versions of the "dress code enforcement" with bras and panties and other things placed as a memorial of sorts..always w jest as humor or fun as a theme..
I hope one day masks will find there way into useless or the butt of a joke..
Too soon

 

[yaco]

Of course, but the clear fact is Covid-19 only got into Victorian privately run aged care homes, not aged care in any other state.

I am not arguing that aged care isn't a problem - it absolutely is and the Federal government is already acting upon this. But cause and effect is the issue here. The cause was the complete incompetence of the Victorian government in the hotel quarantine. Had that failure not occurred then no virus would have infected Victoria's vulnerable aged care facilities.

Lesson 1 is maintain control of quarantine.
Lesson 2 is aged care.

Has the Victorian Premier apologized yet? The Prime Minister of Australia has? The state of NSW has learned the lessons of the Ruby Princess imported cases and Australia acted faster than most developed nations to halt incoming flights from China, Iran and to implement compulsory 14 day quarantine for all returning overseas arrivals, but Victoria is still in denial on the cause of their disaster and now they suffer hard lockdown.

What - The virus got into NSW aged care homes as evidenced by Nightmarch - If the Government's had any common sense they would insist that these essential workers are tested twice a week which would greatly mitigate any outbreaks in any aged care centres, instead of needless rhetoric about protecting older people - This has been a worldwide issue in which Government's have failed to ensure effective processes to protect older people - Do you know that Australian's arrive back are put into quarantine and some are not even tested for COVID19 and according to the figures 30% - The leakage from quarantine hotels in Australia which was the cause of the second wave SHOULD have been avoided by placing POSITIVE arrivals into hospitals which would have provided more effective infection control and better care for any symptomatic patients - Australia has relatively had few infections and hospital admissions, while hospitals at that time were hardly busy - Finally when restrictions were introduced throughout Australia in March, Victoria has the strictest measures of any state - At the moment, Australia is a joke with their closure of state borders and some Premiers are playing politics - There should be lots more travel within Australia BUT it appears that Government's don't have enough faith in the testing system.

 

[Cookster15]

I see your point. In my view it is absolutely criminal by the woman not wearing a mask..in the U.S.there used to be almost a complete cultural overlay of understood things like wearing shoes,shirt..pants to certain private property venues,like restaurants and stores, but boundaries are there to be pushed,I get that.
however logical it seems in the woman's mind that the market is public space,it's not. The benmark, boiler plate for private establishments in the US used to go something like " we reserve the right to refuse service to anybody "
Not conforming with the mask policy is dealt with in a variety of ways,killing in the most extreme,stabbings,fighting,and then a few steps below w verbal wrestling and then the old tried and true just go someplace else.
I of course could try and guess how much the cashier is being paid..also I could guess that a manager or owner of the business set the policy,not the cashier..but all those guesses would be wrong and dumb..the humble cashier should be able to say,I am doing my job in accordance with store policy and that should be enough..
anybody arguing about the U.S.constitution,morality or health science at the cash register needs to be taken to a rubber room.
Go to another market

I disagree. I think this obsession with masks as the "be all and end all" of preventing the spread of the virus can contribute to a false sense of security. Other measures are more effective. Like social distancing, closing borders and compulsory quarantine. Evidence? The results in Australia. Until the failure in hotel quarantine we had the virus under control. Masks were only being worn widespread by people on public transport. Australia had nearly 5,000 active cases by April 4 but that reduced to less than 400 by our lockdown which did not mandate the wearing of masks.

 

[Cookster15]

What - The virus got into NSW aged care homes as evidenced by Nightmarch - If the Government's had any common sense they would insist that these essential workers are tested twice a week which would greatly mitigate any outbreaks in any aged care centres, instead of needless rhetoric about protecting older people - This has been a worldwide issue in which Government's have failed to ensure effective processes to protect older people - Do you know that Australian's arrive back are put into quarantine and some are not even tested for COVID19 and according to the figures 30% - The leakage from quarantine hotels in Australia which was the cause of the second wave SHOULD have been avoided by placing POSITIVE arrivals into hospitals which would have provided more effective infection control and better care for any symptomatic patients - Australia has relatively had few infections and hospital admissions, while hospitals at that time were hardly busy - Finally when restrictions were introduced throughout Australia in March, Victoria has the strictest measures of any state - At the moment, Australia is a joke with their closure of state borders and some Premiers are playing politics - There should be lots more travel within Australia BUT it appears that Government's don't have enough faith in the testing system.

OMFG!

Even though you are being disingenuously silly, I'll respond: if people would wear a mask in public all of those things that you added in, that weren't part of what I replied to, would be reduced. The people yelling the loudest about getting 'back to normal' are the people not willing to do what it takes to get there.

You said that not wearing a mask is benign so shooting a gun down the isle of the store is also benign right? There might not be bullets in the gun, the bullets might not hit anyone, the bullets might injure a few people, or the bullets might kill people, but benign right?

No need to be rude. Where did I say not wearing a mask is benign? Well allow me to exaggerate your opinion - you seem to think wearing masks all that matters? Go look at Australia's efforts. That huge dip in infections wasn't due to masks because they were never mandated. Masks are only mandated now in the state of Victoria which lost control of quarantine then screwed up with contact tracing.

 

[Cookster15]

What - The virus got into NSW aged care homes as evidenced by Nightmarch

There is no problem with Covid-19 in aged care in NSW now. You are talking a few months ago. Only 3 new cases in NSW yesterday (August 25), continuing a very good trend. Most new cases since April was leakage from Victoria.

 

[jmdirt]

No need to be rude. Where did I say not wearing a mask is benign? Well allow me to exaggerate your opinion - you seem to think wearing masks all that matters? Go look at Australia's efforts. That huge dip in infections wasn't due to masks because they were never mandated. Masks are only mandated now in the state of Victoria which lost control of quarantine then screwed up with contact tracing.

Your quote:
"I hope we don't give over zealous police an excuse to harass normally law abiding people over something as benign as not wearing a mask in public. "

I don't think that wearing a mask is all that matters, but you know that because you have read my posts over the last five month (you've replied to some). When people have to be in public though (work, food shopping, etc...) wearing a mask is very important.

I don't live in Australia so arguing from that point is irrelevant to my situation. But to make you happy, I will have an asterisk in my mask rants "*people in most places in the USA should wear a mask in public".

You do realize that being disingenuous is rude rude as well?

 

[Nomad]

They are still sitting on a plateau of a couple thousand cases a week. It is self explanatory why they should still be trying to mitigate those numbers with every tool at their disposal. Since they haven't achieved herd immunity, those numbers can balloon once fall hits and people start heading back indoors into crowded and poorly ventilated areas. I can see why they don't want to mandate masks given their past decisions. But not even recommending them? That seems shortsighted to me.

Tengell says he doesn't expect see a second wave this fall and only smaller outbreaks in certain areas:

Swedish COVID-19 response chief predicts local outbreaks, no big second wave

Sweden is likely to see local outbreaks but no big second wave of COVID-19 cases in the autumn, such as inundated hospitals a few months ago, the country's top epidemiologist and architect if its unorthodox pandemic strategy said on Monday.

www.google.com

"We don't believe we'll have a classic second wave, such as those seen in influenza pandemics where you get widespread contagion in the community again," Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said in an interview with broadcaster TV4."

"This disease appears to work in a different way. The spread is more patchy, so the likelihood is greater that we will see - as one is currently seeing around Europe - outbreaks in certain places, at workplaces and similar environments, during the autumn."

 

[Nomad]

More false positive tests discovered - this time with Sweden:

Sweden uncovers 3,700 false positives from faulty Chinese test kits

Sweden's Public Health Agency said the PCR kits, which test for an ongoing COVID-19 infection, were made in China by the company BGI Genomics and had been distributed worldwide.

www.google.com

The lab in question is BGI Genomics of China who has sold 35 million test kits to 180 countries and built 58 labs in 18 countries:

Special Report: COVID opens new doors for China's gene giant

As countries scramble to test for the novel coronavirus, a Chinese company has become a go-to name around the world.

www.google.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

Tengell says he doesn't expect see a second wave this fall and only smaller outbreaks in certain areas:

"We don't believe we'll have a classic second wave, such as those seen in influenza pandemics where you get widespread contagion in the community again," Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said in an interview with broadcaster TV4."

"This disease appears to work in a different way. The spread is more patchy, so the likelihood is greater that we will see - as one is currently seeing around Europe - outbreaks in certain places, at workplaces and similar environments, during the autumn."

“I think one should always be worried about this disease because it is constantly causing new mischief and is very unpredictable,” Tegnell said.

Mastering the art of talking out of both sides of his mouth. Parsing whether a collection of outbreaks meets the definition of a wave is not really worth my time.

This news is infuriating. Anybody puzzled by this decision is not paying attention. Keeping the positives artificially low is just going to accelerate us back into the next wave IMO. The whole country should be doing what Univ. Illinois is doing. Test everybody to prevent new infections. Sadly, we aren't going to be doing that.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1298582772932648960

View: https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1298582772932648960

 

[Unchained]

I disagree. I think this obsession with masks as the "be all and end all" of preventing the spread of the virus can contribute to a false sense of security. Other measures are more effective. Like social distancing, closing borders and compulsory quarantine. Evidence? The results in Australia. Until the failure in hotel quarantine we had the virus under control. Masks were only being worn widespread by people on public transport. Australia had nearly 5,000 active cases by April 4 but that reduced to less than 400 by our lockdown which did not mandate the wearing of masks.

I don't think I get it,you include social distancing and quarantine but strangely omit masks as part of a strategy,certainly nobody intelligent has said that masks and the ultimate solution to anything \ everything. Australia is certainly no success story listening to there government health officials. In Australia,similar to the US old people are the ones,effected, sad but true. The Aussie government took drastic actions to push resources towards the vulnerable older residents. And like in the US, there efforts look to have been successful statistically,but if you are not part of the stat and someone in your family died hearing of an overall downward trend in death to older people is probably of little comfort.We have had multiple US government officials state frankly that the virus has effected people over @72 years of age and in a round about way say things like " it is what it is" or something to the effect of 72 was a good long life lets move on.
but that is really no answer to your point of view.
And that is this:
If you put a sign on your private establishment \ business that says:
masks\ pants\ shoes must be worn to enter,
that should be absolute and should not be up for debate or interpretation..just like the old pub saying goes " you are 86't" meaning you are forbidden from returning.
too many people trying to force things on others,agreed. Follow my rules or don't enter my business. Straight forward..
and yes I was at more than one place that said "do not enter children play area without a child". Would look like a clear instruction,but guys jumping in the ball pit at McDonald's or hipsters entering a children's playground to enjoy the swing set ..the rules are there for a reason,even if you don't see the reasoning.
and I have said multiple times,the U.S. cannot be compared with Australia or Denmark or China because we don't have a coordinated public health care system..we don't have it.
Australia did things completely different than the US and the numbers,across the board reflect that..the US is over @180,000 dead,still no plan.

 

[jmdirt]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/26/non-woven-masks-better-to-stop-covid-19-says-japanese-supercomputer

 

[yaco]

No need to be rude. Where did I say not wearing a mask is benign? Well allow me to exaggerate your opinion - you seem to think wearing masks all that matters? Go look at Australia's efforts. That huge dip in infections wasn't due to masks because they were never mandated. Masks are only mandated now in the state of Victoria which lost control of quarantine then screwed up with contact tracing.

My post doesn't refer to masks - IMO, masks are part of a range of tools to help the spread of COVID19, though they need to be used more effectively - For some reason Government's mandate the use of masks outdoors, rather than indoors - The Victorian situation occurred because the Federal Government should have placed new arrivals who test positive on arrival into a health setting - There you would have a higher rate of infection control with trained professionals, peace of mind for the positive people - Instead you are placing them in a hotel with limited medical supervision, untrained staff, not good enough use of PPE - It is potentially a recipe of disaster - It was easy to put this group into hospitals because at the time and even today the hospital system has not been under any pressure when you have around 5 or 6 people per day testing positive on arrival - I'll also add the quarantine system could be halved to seven days with more effective measure - You could make it that the person must produce a negative within 72 hrs of the flight, then they land on day 4 for a second test, put into quarantine then test on day 10 - Then you have 3 negative tests within 10 days, one week in quarantine and then you are on your way - Then you could allow more citizens/residents to fly back at more affordable flights - It is a joke that Aussie Govt only allows 30 on a plane which results in 15K one way airfares and then 3K for quarantine.

 

[yaco]

There is no problem with Covid-19 in aged care in NSW now. You are talking a few months ago. Only 3 new cases in NSW yesterday (August 25), continuing a very good trend. Most new cases since April was leakage from Victoria.

You don't seem to understand that the worldwide rhetoric from Government's was 'we must protect older people' - Yet when the total death rate worldwide from this cohort is between 50 to 60% and in Australia it is closer to 70% then you have failed - All Government's needed was to ensure twice a week testing of staff in these centres and you would have mitigated much of this issue. Finally, don't worry about JMDirt - They are fixated with masks.

 

[jmdirt]

I am fixated on reducing viral load in public places. Staying away from other people is the best plan, but we must work, and shop so masks are the best way to reduce viral load. Science is 'fixated' on masks being the best way to reduce viral load in public places as well so there is that.

You are fixed on hand washing which doesn't reduce viral load, and improper mask use which isn't a good argument against proper mask use.

Our mask mandate is for public indoor places, and outdoor places where physical distancing isn't possible.

 

[Cookster15]

I don't think that wearing a mask is all that matters

Well yours and the other responses I received suggest otherwise. And I am very happy to quote the experience of Australia because it is very strong evidence that counts against this masks is everything mantra. For the record I know that masks do work and as you know I have told you here that I personally wear a mask when going to the shopping centre. But masks are also symbolic and Australia's results prove why. We had our epidemiologists arguing the same back in March / April to avoid a shortage of masks for health workers. But we still almost squashed the virus without stipulating mask wearing in public.

 

[Cookster15]

My post doesn't refer to masks - IMO, masks are part of a range of tools to help the spread of COVID19, though they need to be used more effectively - For some reason Government's mandate the use of masks outdoors, rather than indoors - The Victorian situation occurred because the Federal Government should have placed new arrivals who test positive on arrival into a health setting - There you would have a higher rate of infection control with trained professionals, peace of mind for the positive people - Instead you are placing them in a hotel with limited medical supervision, untrained staff, not good enough use of PPE - It is potentially a recipe of disaster - It was easy to put this group into hospitals because at the time and even today the hospital system has not been under any pressure when you have around 5 or 6 people per day testing positive on arrival - I'll also add the quarantine system could be halved to seven days with more effective measure - You could make it that the person must produce a negative within 72 hrs of the flight, then they land on day 4 for a second test, put into quarantine then test on day 10 - Then you have 3 negative tests within 10 days, one week in quarantine and then you are on your way - Then you could allow more citizens/residents to fly back at more affordable flights - It is a joke that Aussie Govt only allows 30 on a plane which results in 15K one way airfares and then 3K for quarantine.

Sorry, my reply to you got mixed up with my reply to jmdirt. I think I will agree to disagree on the Victorian governments culpability in the quarantine fiasco. Lets see what the enquiry reveals.