Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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I don't think I get it,you include social distancing and quarantine but strangely omit masks as part of a strategy,certainly nobody intelligent has said that masks and the ultimate solution to anything \ everything. Australia is certainly no success story listening to there government health officials. In Australia,similar to the US old people are the ones,effected, sad but true. The Aussie government took drastic actions to push resources towards the vulnerable older residents.
I know masks work but they are more symbolic. The fixation with masks in this thread is bordering on groupthink,. Masks were never mandated outside of the state of Victoria in Australia and yet we almost squashed the virus. I never said Australia made no mistakes. Of course, nobody is perfect. But anyone who bothers to check the graph can see the success of our lockdowns without masks and no government health official can deny this. Yes there were mistakes made with older residents but these are being addressed - plus a minister has been replaced. We are still waiting for the Victorian state government to admit culpability. Latest stats show cases and deaths falling again. And not because masks are compulsory in Victoria.
 
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I am fixated on reducing viral load in public places. Staying away from other people is the best plan, but we must work, and shop so masks are the best way to reduce viral load. Science is 'fixated' on masks being the best way to reduce viral load in public places as well so there is that.

You are fixed on hand washing which doesn't reduce viral load, and improper mask use which isn't a good argument against proper mask use.

Our mask mandate is for public indoor places, and outdoor places where physical distancing isn't possible.
The best way to reduce viral load is social distancing - not masks. Australia's results prove that. No mandatory mask wearing until recently and this was only in our state of Victoria. Masks are a supplementary strategy only of most benefit when people are forced to be close together. This is why WFH was suggested by our government back in March and is still widespread practiced - the new normal. When our lockdown started we all stayed away from public indoor places. People are still staying away from the shops and public places here. Ask any shop owner.
 
Australia clearly did a good job and masks can definitely be seen as superfluous policy when you are basically asking people to shelter in place in their homes and people actually acquiesce. That is clearly the best way to bring down the case levels from an epidemiological perspective. Keep people from breathing on each other. I would point out that in March and April, there was a lot more thinking that the virus spread by fomites, so masks would also be less crucial and hand-washing more so. Remember when people were leaving packages outside for days and slathering everything with alcohol? The consensus has changed and masks make a lot more sense when you are in a situation where you are asking a lot of people to intersperse with other people in a semi-open world. I think most people in the thread have a pretty realistic view of what role masks play and what they actually accomplish. I think everybody should wear masks here in the USA, but I don't badger people who choose not to. Nor would I like this to be something that is enforced by agents of the state. OTOH, people with big house parties....

Also, all these precautions are somewhat intertwined. There is no magic bullet besides total physical isolation.
View: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1298421178642632705
 
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The best way to reduce viral load is social distancing - not masks. Australia's results prove that. No mandatory mask wearing until recently and this was only in our state of Victoria. Masks are a supplementary strategy only of most benefit when people are forced to be close together. This is why WFH was suggested by our government back in March and is still widespread practiced - the new normal. When our lockdown started we all stayed away from public indoor places. People are still staying away from the shops and public places here. Ask any shop owner.
Which is exactly what I said. BUT, people have to work and shop so when they do mask wearing is important to reduce the viral load. I haven't been out to eat or to a bar/pub since early March. For almost five months I worked from home. I only shop about every 15 days. That reduced my exposure significantly I think. But, now I'm back at the office so I don't have the fortune of staying away from people as much (I do avoid others as much as pos here though I wonder about the HVAC system).

As far a closing boarders goes, I have no control over that obviously, but they aren't going to close the USA boarder, or the Idaho boarder so that isn't really a useful discussion for me.
 
Which is exactly what I said. BUT, people have to work and shop so when they do mask wearing is important to reduce the viral load. I haven't been out to eat or to a bar/pub since early March. For almost five months I worked from home. I only shop about every 15 days. That reduced my exposure significantly I think. But, now I'm back at the office so I don't have the fortune of staying away from people as much (I do avoid others as much as pos here though I wonder about the HVAC system).

As far a closing boarders goes, I have no control over that obviously, but they aren't going to close the USA boarder, or the Idaho boarder so that isn't really a useful discussion for me.
In Australia the government recognized that people have to work and shop but the directive is to do so only for essentials - thus our economy isn't great and many persons are now employed by a government funded wage subsidy arrangement with employers. Social distancing can be employed in these environments so mask wearing isn't needed. WFH is part of this.

For example, in our supermarkets there are now strict social distancing measures employed. Fast checkout lanes now have Perspex screens. Perspex screens are now installed everywhere where retail staff interact with the public including banks. Even small business shop owners are required to have a Covid safe plan including floor markings for social distancing guidelines, posters on walls reminding customers of social distancing and training to staff on social distancing and hygiene. The evidence shows this has worked.

Border closures is also useful in explaining Australia's success. Whilst we could have acted faster we acted relatively quickly compared with, for example, the US. The initial virus surge in March was traced direct from persons who arrived on route from Wuhan and then we had the cruise ship fiasco. But now some of our states are closing state borders due to state politics e.g. Queensland. But we also have stopped inbound international arrivals from high risk places like China. Then there is the compulsory 14 day quarantine for all overseas arrivals. Has America done this? Having said this even our quarantine is loose. It is self administered and whilst this is enforceable by law we do get instances of persons breaking quarantine. IMO it should be 100% compulsory as it is for anyone coming to China now.
 
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The mask debate is beyond ridiculous. I don't need the government to tell me to wear it or not, I do it because it's the only way I can somehow protect myself when I have to be indoors or interact with people. If I could be infected, I wear it to protect the others. It's common sense, don't need no scientific studies. Why don't wear a mask? You look bad, you can't breathe, what is the actual problem preventing somebody to do it?

Social distancing? Great theory obviously, if you don't interact with anybody in person or you do it outside from 5 meters, you're good. But if your life, job, whatever requires you to go out, the minute you step out of your house or your bubble you can kiss goodbye to social distancing. There is no way that during the day you will not get closer than 1 metre to at least one person for at least a few minutes. Then what do you do? Wear a mask dammit!
 
Sorry, my reply to you got mixed up with my reply to jmdirt. I think I will agree to disagree on the Victorian governments culpability in the quarantine fiasco. Lets see what the enquiry reveals.
So you disagree with my assertion that all new arrivals that tested positive ( there were probably only around 5 or 6 per day ) should have placed in hospitals for reasons of infection control and having these people treated by health professionals as opposed to non-trained health people like security guards, hotel staff, police etc looking after this cohort of people - The Victorian issue is actually a Federal Government issue in the way they quarantined positive people - I'll also suggest that critically think for yourself, instead of relying on the sheep in the media - Finally, if Australia implemented a system of passengers providing a negative test 72 hrs before departure as a pre-requisite of being accepted on the flight, then this quarantine episode would never have happened.
 
Not Covid news but good news nonetheless. The WHO has announced that polio has finally been eradicated in Africa.
It is a little more complicated. Wild polio has been eradicated, but vaccine induced polio is still lingering because they use a live attenuated vaccine that can revert to virulence on rare occasions. That is not same vaccine that the developed world gets. Can you imagine how frothy anti-vaxxers would be if people were getting polio from their vaccine?
 
Along those same lines:


Mexicans drinks more soda pop per capita than any other country


"COVID's negative health outcomes come from diseases that are positively impacted by physical activity," Keith said. "If you give people a place to be active, the likelihood they will do it is higher."

"Only one in four Americans meet national physical activity guidelines and more than 30 million have heart disease, Ainsworth said, noting it should be of "national concern."

"Sedentary lifestyles across the country cost more than $117 billion a year in health costs, Ainsworth said. The Fitness Index is a "prescription for communities to bring about positive change."


But it doesn't really matter if you take good care of yourself and have a healthy immune system because according to the majority of the experts there's no such thing as herd immunity with this virus. Supposedly, a healthy immune system can only counteract the virus temporarily - this incredibly intelligent virus comes back with vengeance. You could test negative one day and positive the next day. The virus must be magical being able to masquerade through the body avoiding detection. And forget highly functioning T cells because that will only prevent "severe" Covid disease. Well...then, all of those asymptomatic people must be recipients of false positive tests because there's just no way T cells could knock this thing dead in it's tracks. And there's so many asymptomatic people it's not even funny. I'm really not sure what are immune systems were designed for because the experts don't seem to know either.

So, it doesn't matter that a person consumes a very healthy nutritions diet and excercises everyday taking full responsibility for their health - you're at high risk of getting sick from the virus. In fact, some government leaders assume everyone has the virus and will succumb to illness or will become evil spreaders. The governor in the state I live in (Colorado) has said such; "assume everyone has the virus" he chants from his pulpit. Then comes the mask mandates; people who don't wear masks are "selfish bastards" he pompously states.

So, America attempts to defeat a virus by masking up healthy people like clones, fostering social distancing on everyone, restricting large gatherings, vilifying those terrible college kids who want to socialize, closing schools because it's too risky to have asymptomatic kids running around and enjoying school life, dictating to businesses how they can permanently operate (here in Colorado the governor doesn't allow alcohol to be sold at bars after 11:00 pm, among many other draconian restrictions he's inacted), and promising a vaccine to save the day that may or may not be efficacious.

But I forgot again, can't risk the spread because there isn't any herd immunity possible with this masquerading virus.
 
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I'm really not sure what are immune systems were designed for because the experts don't seem to know either.
Our immune systems were not 'designed' to live in a world with 8 billion of us. Until very recently, humans lived as hunter gatherers dispersed in small groups, often eating parasite infested meat and drinking parasite infested waters. It evolved to suit those conditions. Flu was an infection in migrating waterfowl. SIV was an infection in primates. Water treatment and intensive agriculture changed everything. We are just living with the aftermath.

America has not tried to beat the virus. Not by a long shot.
 
No it isn’t. No other state has the problem only Victoria and you still haven’t explained why that is.
It's a Federal Government issue because you don't quarantine new arrivals who test positive at a hotel with non-trained staff - If you fail to see this is an issue there is little I can do - As I previously posted, two security guards at NSW hotels tested positive in the last week - It's the same issue - New arrivals who test positive ( and there aren't many ), need to be sent to hospital for proper infection control and medical monitoring - I suggest you watch the proceedings from the judicial inquiry into the Victorian quarantine bungles.
 
Not true.
So you don't believe that regular testing of staff working in aged care homes could mitigate the spread of COVID19 in nursing homes and the resultant deaths ? Or you don't believe the Australian COVID 19 action plan was completed on February 1 ? If Government's were truly serious about COVID 19, they would have closed their borders and locked down at the end of January - Most Government's twiddled their thumbs for two months.
 
It's a Federal Government issue because you don't quarantine new arrivals who test positive at a hotel with non-trained staff - If you fail to see this is an issue there is little I can do - As I previously posted, two security guards at NSW hotels tested positive in the last week - It's the same issue - New arrivals who test positive ( and there aren't many ), need to be sent to hospital for proper infection control and medical monitoring - I suggest you watch the proceedings from the judicial inquiry into the Victorian quarantine bungles.
All true, but dealt with in NSW and other states. The Federal government responsibilities apply to every state. Only one state has the disaster. It can't be any clearer. But Victoria committed catastrophic errors. Of course there will continue to be positives in NSW, just like everywhere else in the world that is inevitable. It is how you respond which is important.

Australia has a 14 day quarantine rule for all international arrivals. Only Victoria made catastrophic errors. Yes what you suggest would be better but it has served well in every state except Victoria.

The evidence is clear, look up the stats:

As at 27-Aug-2020 (source Australian government):
Population / Cases / Deaths Cases in last 24 hours
Victoria / 6.6mil / 18714 / 485 / 113
NSW / 8.1mil / 4006 / 52 / 9

Most of NSW's cases were recorded early in March and after the cruise ship debacle. Until their catastrophic errors Victoria was recording no new cases on some days!

NSW has the virus under control (so far). What you describe is a response. NSW has responded. Victoria has failed. There is no comparison. Let me list out the failures of the Victorian state government not shared in any other state:
  1. Catastrophic failure to manage quarantine hotels.
  2. Poor contact tracing.
  3. Resisting offers for federal help when the Victorian arms of the bureaucracy couldn’t do the job.
  4. Not issuing any fines at the BLM demonstration in Melbourne, thus tacitly endorsing a huge event that broke social distancing restrictions and undermined the message to every other Australian.
  5. Not naming the known breakout at Cedar Meats and thus not getting all its casual contacts to test before spreading the virus far and wide.
I am watching the enquiry. It will confirm what I write.
 
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So you don't believe that regular testing of staff working in aged care homes could mitigate the spread of COVID19 in nursing homes and the resultant deaths ? Or you don't believe the Australian COVID 19 action plan was completed on February 1 ? If Government's were truly serious about COVID 19, they would have closed their borders and locked down at the end of January - Most Government's twiddled their thumbs for two months.
Of course. But the statistics for Victoria suggest a massive difference to every other state also subject to the same Federal and international risks. Only Victoria shows a second wave. It can't be clearer.
 

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