Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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The mask debate is beyond ridiculous. I don't need the government to tell me to wear it or not, I do it because it's the only way I can somehow protect myself when I have to be indoors or interact with people. If I could be infected, I wear it to protect the others. It's common sense, don't need no scientific studies. Why don't wear a mask? You look bad, you can't breathe, what is the actual problem preventing somebody to do it?

Social distancing? Great theory obviously, if you don't interact with anybody in person or you do it outside from 5 meters, you're good. But if your life, job, whatever requires you to go out, the minute you step out of your house or your bubble you can kiss goodbye to social distancing. There is no way that during the day you will not get closer than 1 metre to at least one person for at least a few minutes. Then what do you do? Wear a mask dammit!
We all do based upon our own circumstances. The bold bit applies to you but not everyone. Obviously it is different for you but I don't find social distancing difficult. I work from home since this started and when I go to the supermarket I maintain a 2 metre distance to other shoppers if possible. Everyone here is reminded of this via floor markings and posters everywhere. And I wear a mask when shopping. But since I wear glasses when not driving or riding I do find they fog up wearing the mask. So I'd prefer not to if possible.
 
This is false.



The ‘no plan’ part is also false.
I have seen this before and I admire your effort. You may be aware of a nation wide health care system that treats all people in the United States,compiles the data and has an open data base so that on every aggregate level citizens,health care professionals,school administrators,researchers,and everyone else can see who is sick where,what their make up is..and what was their successful or failed treatment plan..
Yes you are right we do have this in American, I apologize for my oversight. Now that you mentioned it I think I will look over the data for female Pacific islanders from 45-55 and see who is more at risk, men or women and see how each group is fairing in the fight.
And how many @61 year old people died in my county l last week,that should be an easy one.
And the deaths, understand..I was on the conference call w Italy,Iran and France and those nursing homes in Arizona when they all agreed that it would be adventurous to report deaths..that makes sense.
Covid is not a hoax..that was fake news.
Americans did not get a universal health care system as promised officially in January 2016..fake news.
Covid tests for anybody who wants one..didn't happen..fake news..
Malaria drugs and zinc cure or prevent Covid 19..false..fake news..
Ultra violet light of disinfectant injected,ingested as Covid therapy or cure..fake news..actually fatal and dangerous.
And this week, people exposed to anyone w the virus SHOULD be tested, ignoring it is silly advice.
Children can get Covid, they can carry it and spread it..saying anything else makes you dumb.fake news
The virus will go away on it's own..probably true but @18-25 years using current modelling data..so it is like the old saying about the broken watch..it's right a couple times a day.
the US does not have national health coverage
The U.S.does not compile data nationally and the federal government does not request or require that the data be reported.
An example of non-reporting in my tiny hamlet of San Diego
 
All true, but dealt with in NSW and other states. The Federal government responsibilities apply to every state. Only one state has the disaster. It can't be any clearer. But Victoria committed catastrophic errors. Of course there will continue to be positives in NSW, just like everywhere else in the world that is inevitable. It is how you respond which is important.

Australia has a 14 day quarantine rule for all international arrivals. Only Victoria made catastrophic errors. Yes what you suggest would be better but it has served well in every state except Victoria.

The evidence is clear, look up the stats:

As at 27-Aug-2020 (source Australian government):
Population / Cases / Deaths Cases in last 24 hours
Victoria / 6.6mil / 18714 / 485 / 113
NSW / 8.1mil / 4006 / 52 / 9

Most of NSW's cases were recorded early in March and after the cruise ship debacle. Until their catastrophic errors Victoria was recording no new cases on some days!

NSW has the virus under control (so far). What you describe is a response. NSW has responded. Victoria has failed. There is no comparison. Let me list out the failures of the Victorian state government not shared in any other state:
  1. Catastrophic failure to manage quarantine hotels.
  2. Poor contact tracing.
  3. Resisting offers for federal help when the Victorian arms of the bureaucracy couldn’t do the job.
  4. Not issuing any fines at the BLM demonstration in Melbourne, thus tacitly endorsing a huge event that broke social distancing restrictions and undermined the message to every other Australian.
  5. Not naming the known breakout at Cedar Meats and thus not getting all its casual contacts to test before spreading the virus far and wide.
I am watching the enquiry. It will confirm what I write.
You do not quarantine positive arrivals from overseas in hotels which are mainly serviced by non-medically trained staff having point of contact with this cohort of people - A similar system was implemented by all states and there is an element of luck in their good fortune I guarantee you that if positive people were placed in hospitals which were NEAR empty with the cancellation of elective surgery and the like the virus would not escape - Do you realise that 93% of the cases in Aged Care Homes in Victoria occurred in Federal Government run places , hence my concern about the Federal Government . I have asked you three times - Do you think positive arrivals from overseas should have been placed in hotels or in hospitals ? I'll add another question - You say you want to keep the virus out of Australia - The way to keep it out of Australia is to insist anyone returning from overseas must produce a negative COVID test 72 hrs before jumping out of a flight - I'll also add that all the experts suggest there is an element of luck in controlling the virus BUT more effective steps could have been taken by the Federal Government in stopping it's NEW entry from April 2020.
 
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You do not quarantine positive arrivals from overseas in hotels which are mainly serviced by non-medically trained staff having point of contact with this cohort of people - A similar system was implemented by all states and there is an element of luck in their good fortune I guarantee you that if positive people were placed in hospitals which were NEAR empty with the cancellation of elective surgery and the like the virus would not escape - Do you realise that 93% of the cases in Aged Care Homes in Victoria occurred in Federal Government run places , hence my concern about the Federal Government . I have asked you three times - Do you think positive arrivals from overseas should have been placed in hotels or in hospitals ? I'll add another question - You say you want to keep the virus out of Australia - The way to keep it out of Australia is to insist anyone returning from overseas must produce a negative COVID test 72 hrs before jumping out of a flight - I'll also add that all the experts suggest there is an element of luck in controlling the virus BUT more effective steps could have been taken by the Federal Government in stopping it's NEW entry from April 2020.
You still haven't explained the Victorian disaster. You are talking in hypotheticals - yaco's hypotheticals. Yes I know that 93% of the cases in Aged Care Homes in Victoria occurred in Federal Government run places. So what? How do you think the virus got into Victoria's aged care homes? Victoria's problem was caused by poorly trained or incompetent security guards and a single infected family walking out of quarantine, plus Cedar Meats and the other failures I listed - all Victoria's problems. Not what you claim.

As for insisting anyone returning from overseas must produce a negative COVID test 72 hrs before jumping out of a flight, that won't work either. testing does not always pick up everyone carrying the virus. Anyhow, the 14 day compulsory quarantine makes that redundant anyway. And as you would know not even China has been able to keep the virus out.

Perhaps you can also explain why the Victorian Premier isn't using any of your excuses?
 
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You still haven't explained the Victorian disaster. You are talking in hypotheticals - yaco's hypotheticals. Yes I know that 93% of the cases in Aged Care Homes in Victoria occurred in Federal Government run places. So what? How do you think the virus got into Victoria's aged care homes? Victoria's problem was caused by poorly trained or incompetent security guards and a single infected family walking out of quarantine, plus Cedar Meats and the other failures I listed - all Victoria's problems. Not what you claim.

As for insisting anyone returning from overseas must produce a negative COVID test 72 hrs before jumping out of a flight, that won't work either. testing does not always pick up everyone carrying the virus. Anyhow, the 14 day compulsory quarantine makes that redundant anyway. And as you would know not even China has been able to keep the virus out.

Perhaps you can also explain why the Victorian Premier isn't using any of your excuses?
The reason the virus seeped out of hotel quarantine centres in Victoria is because + people were placed in the wrong environment - Place this group in hotels and it's unlikely the virus will escape - The negative test 72hrs before flying is standard practice today throughout the airline industry and in fact is being used by the UCI cycling races as in the TDF - I live in Hong Kong who has implemented this policy of no return for citizens/residents without a negative test - Note all arrivals are still tested on arrival and then quarantine - I crunched the numbers and nearly one in a thousand has tested positive within the three day time frame which doesn't matter as they are tested on arrival. Don't forget nearly 30% of new arrivals in Australia are merely placed in a quarantine hotel without a COVID test.

Under my proposal

  • negative Test within 72 hrs of a flight or no flight
  • Test on arrival which is day 4. Test positive and off to hospital while negative means a quarantine hotel.
  • Test 5 or 6 days later and if negative ( which is three tests ) then out of quarantine.
So you don't allow people to fly without a negative test which is 99.9% sure - Then if test positive on arrival into hospital for infection control - More importantly you could then halve the quarantine period to seven days.

I dont have any particular opinion about Andrews - What I do know is Victoria had the strictest lockdown of any state until June which didn't help - And unless they get down to stage 2 restrictions by October/November they would just about have the longest period of any city or country under stage 3 or 4 restrictions.

Your first paragraph has in effect parrotted my argument - Positive cases in unsuitable environments being tended by poorly trained NON-health workers which is the case for every state in Australia - This could have happened in any state.
 
Yaco's post has many interesting elements. Take a few things written in different states of realization. 72 hour old or new Covid tests a results are not,have not been a standard pre qualification for flying to and from the US. Both foreign and domestic flights to and from the US do not require Covid status to board or disembark either side.
there are guidelines said to be issued "soon" for basic health and safety standards in congregate care facilities,many have elderly residents \ patients. So depending on your point of view,better late than never,or the prevailing US government response,issuing guidelines,@8 months in, is a rapid response.
For American schools, incoming students are the vessels of virus transport and transmission. Incoming asymptomatic individuals introduce disease because of unknown status for the most part.
In the United States we do not have any national quarantine strategy guidelines. The three 30 day delays for border reopening w Canada and Mexico are set to be reevaluated on September 21st, quarantine or Covid status are not publicly part of the discussions.

 
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All the Covid-19 checkpoints in N.Baja are dismantled and n no longer doing health stops.

 
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Yaco's post has many interesting elements. Take a few things written in different states of realization. 72 hour old or new Covid tests a results are not,have not been a standard pre qualification for flying to and from the US. Both foreign and domestic flights to and from the US do not require Covid status to board or disembark either side.
there are guidelines said to be issued "soon" for basic health and safety standards in congregate care facilities,many have elderly residents \ patients. So depending on your point of view,better late than never,or the prevailing US government response,issuing guidelines,@8 months in, is a rapid response.
For American schools, incoming students are the vessels of virus transport and transmission. Incoming asymptomatic individuals introduce disease because of unknown status for the most part.
In the United States we do not have any national quarantine strategy guidelines. The three 30 day delays for border reopening w Canada and Mexico are set to be reevaluated on September 21st, quarantine or Covid status are not publicly part of the discussions.

You are right about America - Had a friend fly to America last week from Hong Kong - No preflight covid test, no covid test on arrival and no suggestion of quarantine or even self isolation - Though when they return to HK they must do a preflight COVID test and then tested on arrival and 14 days quarantine.
 
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You do not quarantine positive arrivals from overseas in hotels which are mainly serviced by non-medically trained staff having point of contact with this cohort of people - A similar system was implemented by all states and there is an element of luck in their good fortune I guarantee you that if positive people were placed in hospitals which were NEAR empty with the cancellation of elective surgery and the like the virus would not escape - Do you realise that 93% of the cases in Aged Care Homes in Victoria occurred in Federal Government run places , hence my concern about the Federal Government . I have asked you three times - Do you think positive arrivals from overseas should have been placed in hotels or in hospitals ? I'll add another question - You say you want to keep the virus out of Australia - The way to keep it out of Australia is to insist anyone returning from overseas must produce a negative COVID test 72 hrs before jumping out of a flight - I'll also add that all the experts suggest there is an element of luck in controlling the virus BUT more effective steps could have been taken by the Federal Government in stopping it's NEW entry from April 2020.
Obviously NSW made the right call by using army and police for hotel quarantine security. in Victoria they used private security companies who then subcontracted and it seems that some of the guards received minimal training. I just noticed on the news that 12 security guards have had their contracts terminated in NSW for conduct breaches so obviously NSW is also using private security as well. The Victorian method was no doubt cheaper but in the end much more costly in other ways............... but NSW also made major errors regarding the Ruby Princess cruise ship debacle and now these security breaches are not a good look.
 
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Obviously NSW made the right call by using army and police for hotel quarantine security. in Victoria they used private security companies who then subcontracted and it seems that some of the guards received minimal training. I just noticed on the news that 12 security guards have had their contracts terminated in NSW for conduct breaches so obviously NSW is also using private security as well. The Victorian method was no doubt cheaper but in the end much more costly in other ways............... but NSW also made major errors regarding the Ruby Princess cruise ship debacle and now these security breaches are not a good look.
At the end of the day Hazzard is still Minister for Health despite Ruby Princess, Colbeck is still Minister for Aged Care despite the aged care debacle and no Victorian Minister seems to be responsible for hotel quarantine - I will reiterate all positive arrivals ( and there are only a couple day ) should have been sent to hospitals then it's highly unlikely anything the virus would escape from this facility - We ended up with a cohort of untrained workers in infection control taking care of positive people which is a recipe for disaster.
 
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At the end of the day Hazzard is still Minister for Health despite Ruby Princess, Colbeck is still Minister for Aged Care despite the aged care debacle and no Victorian Minister seems to be responsible for hotel quarantine - I will reiterate all positive arrivals ( and there are only a couple day ) should have been sent to hospitals then it's highly unlikely anything the virus would escape from this facility - We ended up with a cohort of untrained workers in infection control taking care of positive people which is a recipe for disaster.
Sounds like there will be a reshuffle when Cormann resigns at the end of the year. Colbeck at least will be moved out you would think but the damage has already been done. Seems like the good early signs in Australia including Victoria made them a little complacent and also probably a bit self satisfied and it's only since things have gone pear shaped that the governments fully realize what a pandemic is like if it gets even slightly out of control. It will happen again in aged care unless the whole sector gets a makeover in budgeting, training, staffing and everything in between. A big task but one that aged care retirees should benefit from not to mention their families and also the staff. How some of these aged care homes are even certified is beyond comprehension and they need to be audited regularly for their effectiveness. I had my own experience with aged care and that was a decade ago. Sounds like little progress has been made. Increasing budgets for more in - home care is a must as well and the government has been trying to do that but it's a high demand service.
 
The reason the virus seeped out of hotel quarantine centres in Victoria is because + people were placed in the wrong environment
Not true. It was because a failures in security by the Daniel Andrews Victorian state government. People were placed into the "wrong" environment in other states too, but they had properly trained and regulated security to ensure infected persons were not released into the community - unlike Victoria. Your suggestions might work but not implementing these policies does not explain why Australia is only showing a second wave thanks to the failures of one state government.
 
I think the answer is yes, but that depends on where you are on the curve. A pcr test can pick up an infection earlier due to sensitivity likely before you are infectious. So, with a quick turnaround time, there is value to this type of testing for close contacts identified by tracing. Then these positives can isolate while they are contagious. Whether that happens in practice is debatable in many places. A rapid antigen test will probably replace the pcr tests without losing much IMO. The graph below is theoretical, but I think most people move from pcr+ and non-infectious to pcr+ and infectious to pcr+ and non-infectious to pcr-.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1299092280968503297
 
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Not true. It was because a failures in security by the Daniel Andrews Victorian state government. People were placed into the "wrong" environment in other states too, but they had properly trained and regulated security to ensure infected persons were not released into the community - unlike Victoria. Your suggestions might work but not implementing these policies does not explain why Australia is only showing a second wave thanks to the failures of one state government.
Why shouldn't you place new arrivals who test positive in hospitals who at the time were quiet and are still quiet, to ensure the virus wouldn't escape from a highly regulated environment which is full of trained health care staff, as opposed to a hotch potch quarantine system set up in hotels at the last minute with few trained health staff. It's a fact that two security guards caught the virus from quarantine hotels in NSW and luckily hasn't spread into the community - As long as States refuse to place positive arrivals into hotels then you are increasing the chances of the virus escaping into the community - As Moving Target posted there have been a major mistakes by Government's and their Ministers but no-one has been held accountable - Finally, you do seem to enjoy having a whinge.
 
Our immune systems were not 'designed' to live in a world with 8 billion of us. Until very recently, humans lived as hunter gatherers dispersed in small groups, often eating parasite infested meat and drinking parasite infested waters. It evolved to suit those conditions. Flu was an infection in migrating waterfowl. SIV was an infection in primates. Water treatment and intensive agriculture changed everything. We are just living with the aftermath.
Then we should all be dead by now considering the number of pathogens we're exposed to. A healthy immune system is quite an effective mechanism in fighting off and recovering from pathogens. Nutritionally sound food & exercise improve immune defense activity & metabolic health:


The overwhelming majority of people infected who develope complications are the elderly and particularly those with underlying medical conditions.The healthy & fit are not succumbing to this virus.
 
Professor Jean-Francois Toussaint, Director of IRMES, Institute for Biomedical Research & Sports Epidemiology:


"Leading French public health expert, Professor of Medicine Jean-François Toussaint, appeared on mainstream French television recently where he exposed the wanton hysteria which has gripped western countries over the supposed ‘pandemic’ of COVID-19. According to the data presented by Toussaint, the epidemic is long since over. In recent months, government officials and mainstream media have abandoned talking about deaths and hospitalizations (which have dropped to near zero, no longer a ‘crisis’) and instead have pivoted to aggressively promoting the idea of “spikes” and “cases” as being a measure of crisis now. His conclusions are backed up by the latest data from France and around Europe – and shows there was never any “Second Wave” and in all likely reality, there will not be one. The virus has clearly extinguished itself. This stark presentation effectively nullifies the governments’ claim that the public should be wearing masks and that lockdowns are somehow necessary to ‘stop the virus’"


 
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