Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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One distance runner In his 30’s dies from C19.... So, therefore, what?



The CDC report is probably not something you are very excited about. Your distance runner is in the 6% minority where the death was only COVID related. The other 94% dead had between 2 - 3 other comorbities where COVID was a contributor.

The point is this thing is not what you are describing and I‘m confident you know it.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3-wrg3tTKK5-9tOHPGAHWFVO3DfslkJ0KsDEPQpWmPbKtp6EsoVV2Qs1Q
This is like saying you weren't killed by the car that ran over you because you were too fat and slow to run. If the car wasn't on the road you'd still be fat and slow. BS to data manipulation for political purposes.
Most flu deaths come from the most prominent weakness of the victim whether they're aware of it or not. That or complications that come from it.
 
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This is like saying you weren't killed by the car that ran over you because you were too fat and slow to run. If the car wasn't on the road you'd still be fat and slow. BS to data manipulation for political purposes.
Most flu deaths come from the most prominent weakness of the victim whether they're aware of it or not. That or complications that come from it.
Oh, and herd immunity is exactly what condition? Where 100% of the population has been infected and recovered from the first version of C19 simultaneously? How efficient that sounds considering the question about efficacy of the immunity period is far from confirmed. This virus will continue to mutate and circle around until vaccines provide enough breathing room along with a reduced profile of infected/transmitter population; so many feel. Or, as DT would put it: "people are saying..." whether anyone said sh*t or not.
 
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If a public servant..pick one..a life guard..a fireman..a highway patrol officer..
the life guard tells you to return to the water after numerous shark attacks..the fireman gives you the all clear even knowing that the structure is burning out of control.. Highway Patrol waves you on knowing you are going the opposite direction,wrong way or the road is out..should be a capital offense..death penalty if they did it intentionally and there was loss of life. Why should fake Covid info be different from federal government health officials?
Death penalty
Top down.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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This is like saying you weren't killed by the car that ran over you because you were too fat and slow to run. If the car wasn't on the road you'd still be fat and slow. BS to data manipulation for political purposes.
Most flu deaths come from the most prominent weakness of the victim whether they're aware of it or not. That or complications that come from it.
And this is what I was looking for. Our COVID response is not the template for our flu response. We can - as people- no longer tolerate the risk of everyday life.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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It is simply insane that some people are still banking on naturally-occurring herd immunity as a strategy.
No actually. In the absence of a vaccine - which is a helluva long way from any sort of certainty - herd immunity is all that remains of any sort of strategy. And without a vaccine we will eventually get there. Some parts of the globe quicker than others.
 

Chris Gadsden

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agree completely about faith in government. If a fire person makes false medical claims to @340 million people,that person should be held responsible..and if they did intentionally,more than once..why can America execute criminals for a single murder and a serial killer go unpunished?
murder is murder
That assumes you understand the definition of “murder.” Pretty clearly you do not.
 

Chris Gadsden

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Oh, and herd immunity is exactly what condition? Where 100% of the population has been infected and recovered from the first version of C19 simultaneously? How efficient that sounds considering the question about efficacy of the immunity period is far from confirmed. This virus will continue to mutate and circle around until vaccines provide enough breathing room along with a reduced profile of infected/transmitter population; so many feel. Or, as DT would put it: "people are saying..." whether anyone said sh*t or not.
well, stock up your bunker. Sounds like you will be there for an extended period.
 
No actually. In the absence of a vaccine - which is a helluva long way from any sort of certainty - herd immunity is all that remains of any sort of strategy. And without a vaccine we will eventually get there. Some parts of the globe quicker than others.
Same way we've reached herd immunity against the common cold?

We simply don't know if natural herd immunity is possible, and currently the signs point to "no".
 
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Chris Gadsden

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Same way we've reached herd immunity against the common cold?

We simply don't know if natural herd immunity is possible, and currently the signs point to "no".
Okay. In the absence of a vaccine and herd immunity how do you see this developing? At some point the lockdown effects will be more devastating than the virus.
 
Okay. In the absence of a vaccine and herd immunity how do you see this developing? At some point the lockdown effects will be more devastating than the virus.
Maybe at some point governments will realize that strict but relatively short and localized lockdowns coupled with widespread mask usage, social distancing, strict border controls and widespread contact tracing are preferable to half-arsed lockdowns where you reopen as soon as you can get away with it, so things get out of hand and eventually you're forced to do exactly what you were trying to avoid, except after quite a few deaths and on a wider scale. Nationalize and tax as necessary to redistribute wealth and sustain those who can't work.

Some countries are actually managing to do much of this.
 
Same way we've reached herd immunity against the common cold?

We simply don't know if natural herd immunity is possible, and currently the signs point to "no".
I tend to agree with this. There is very little quality evidence that herd immunity can be achieved by a pathogen alone without the aid of vaccination. Measles didn't generate herd immunity broadly. Neither did smallpox and they were more infectious. The analogy I would use is a dog chasing its tail. Tempting, but always just out of reach.

And one point that gets lost about this discourse is that true herd immunity would involve infecting 60-80% of every population. The notion put forth that infecting everybody but the elderly sounds good on the surface but will not achieve herd immunity. Once you plug them back into the wider population, there would be more outbreaks. In other words, 60-80% of the elderly also have to get infected for natural herd immunity. And most nations have realized that this is just not a viable strategy.

I remain more bullish on the vaccine front. Doubtful that they will totally eliminate the problem, but there is a very good chance that they significantly lessen the worst outcomes. In my view, the most likely scenario is that COVID becomes the 5th seasonal coronavirus post vaccination campaign.

The jockeying to get that EUA is going to be crazy. How this is handled on a regulatory level will define how successful the vaccine compliance is within the population.
View: https://twitter.com/ZacharyBrennan/status/1301510484265447426
 
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Chris Gadsden

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Maybe at some point governments will realize that strict but relatively short and localized lockdowns coupled with widespread mask usage, social distancing, strict border controls and widespread contact tracing are preferable to half-arsed lockdowns where you reopen as soon as you can get away with it, so things get out of hand and eventually you're forced to do exactly what you were trying to avoid, except after quite a few deaths and on a wider scale.
Again, you assume a vaccine is on the way in short order. You don't know that. And you also assume there are no adverse consequences to the "relatively short" lockdowns, social distancing and the like.

You simply behave as if there's no health consequence to lockdowns. And redistributing wealth to those who have lost everything financially isn't even a band-aid on a spurting artery.
 
These are the rough estimates. The low bar set by the regulators is 50%, though I think the expectation is that the vaccines will be more effective than that. I would be surprised if the efficacy hits 80% on the first line vaccines.

Simulation experiments revealed that to prevent an epidemic (reduce the peak by >99%), the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when vaccination coverage is 100% (reproduction number=2.5–3.5). This vaccine efficacy threshold rises to 70% when coverage drops to 75% and up to 80% when coverage drops to 60% when reproduction number is 2.5, rising to 80% when coverage drops to 75% when the reproduction number is 3.5. To extinguish an ongoing epidemic, the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when coverage is 100% and at least 80% when coverage drops to 75% to reduce the peak by 85%–86%, 61%–62%, and 32% when vaccination occurs after 5%, 15%, and 30% of the population, respectively, have already been exposed to COVID-19 coronavirus. A vaccine with an efficacy between 60% and 80% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages.
https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext
 
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Chris to be clear telling American parents that their children are immune from the virus is criminal. Telling American families to rest assured that their elderly loved ones are safe because malaria meds and zinc are a known cure for Covid-19 is contemptuous and criminal. Telling people despite the documented danger that mass gatherings made them better,more patriotic citizens is\was wrong and it's criminal.
Masks as an example were explained to the American public as props from the media and the left to make President Trump look weak. That was wrong when he originally said and remains false today..and tomorrow for that matter.
It is and was certainly criminal conduct,a complete dereliction of duty,when President Trump stated that the virus was a hoax and was an imaginary ailment conjured up by his rivals, he stated that dangerous and obviously deadly line of lies despite having been given official briefings from US medical experts to the contrary.
The number of people who have died from receiving and following the misinformation given by Trump can never be exactly tabulated, but it is certain that if people were given accurate science based information many,many thousands of Americans would not have died.
If you tell someone to inject or drink disinfectant and they do and die,that is murder in my humble opinion. And I hope that me being right or wrong will be proven or dismissed in a court of law.
 
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And just for the record,it may turn out that many more Americans will did because the US government policy of America first cannot work,even conceptually. Covid-19 is effecting the world population and is certainly not going to be cured or contained solely within the US borders using only American everything. That is in the toilet with the first incoming flight from outside the US,a car entering from Canada or Mexico or will be completely foiled as ships arrive in American ports..The U.S. can't roll up any imaginary draw bridge ,build a moat or wall that will isolate America from Covid 19..dumb to say it,even more stupid to try it. The U.S.and all the fantastic resources she has available should be deployed in a world wide cooperative effort to control and ultimately eradicate the virus,anything else is an injustice to everyone
 
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