Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Nomad]

It is simply insane that some people are still banking on naturally-occurring herd immunity as a strategy.

"We are Actually Getting Closer to Herd Immunity" -- Dr. Soo Aleman (Karolinska Institute):

View: https://youtu.be/1L-LpLq64-w


She notes that social distancing "is not properly kept very well" and as summertime rolled around there was "crowding at the beaches." And of course there's no mask mandates or recommendations in Sweden with hardly anyone wearing them.

And this:

Drop in Brazilian COVID-19 cases prompts herd immunity questions

An unexpectedly positive turn for Brazilian cities once plagued with the coronavirus pandemic is raising fresh questions about herd immunity. A new report in the Washington Post described how the i…

www.google.com

"A new report in the Washington Post described how the impoverished city of Manaus saw hospitalizations plummet even though it had never imposed a lockdown or taken the drastic measures imposed in Asia and Europe. It's also testing far more residents than it once did."

So, Dr. Aleman, MD, PhD, & Associate Professor at the Karolinska Institute is "simply insane" for proposing naturally-occurring herd immunity in Sweden based on her research?

I know it's not politically correct to mention herd immunity with this virus, but I'm referencing highly-qualified experts in the field who's research shouldn't automatically be dismissed.

 

[Nomad]

Very interesting research on vitamin B and Covid-19:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yahoo.com/amphtml/lifestyle/vitamin-b-could-help-prevent-the-worst-outcomes-in-covid-19-cases-experts-say-163709320.html

https://www.maturitas.org/article/S0378-5122(20)30348-0/fulltext#

 

[hrotha]

Again, you assume a vaccine is on the way in short order. You don't know that. And you also assume there are no adverse consequences to the "relatively short" lockdowns, social distancing and the like.

You simply behave as if there's no health consequence to lockdowns. And redistributing wealth to those who have lost everything financially isn't even a band-aid on a spurting artery.

I'm not assuming ANY of the things you said.

You can have relatively short localized lockdowns if you implement them as soon as possible without paralyzing your whole economy elsewhere, but this requires decisive early action and having a robust system in place to identify cases and trace contacts. Again, there are countries doing exactly this right now and it works.

You're also assuming wealth redistribution has to be nothing but a band-aid but that's mostly a lack of imagination than anything else. Discussing this in-depth would be very political, though.

So, Dr. Aleman, MD, PhD, & Associate Professor at the Karolinska Institute is "simply insane" for proposing naturally-occurring herd immunity in Sweden based on her research?

I know it's not politically correct to mention herd immunity with this virus, but I'm referencing highly-qualified experts in the field who's research shouldn't automatically be dismissed.

I dunno why you'd bring up political correctness, though. That has nothing to do with this.
Anyway, I'd like to see her try to explain Spain.

 

[Oldermanish]

And this is what I was looking for. Our COVID response is not the template for our flu response. We can - as people- no longer tolerate the risk of everyday life.

Actually-as people we've abdicated much of the personal responsibility to stay healthy for the benefit of ourselves and others. Developed societies seem incapable of self-denial or discipline and politicians in many countries are taking advantage of the weaknesses.
Keep looking because it isn't one simple answer. The pointless political polarity where citizens are willing to fight and kill each other over a common enemy is more the answer. Look to the leadership and the arc discourse is taking as well.

When a 17 year old kid comes from another state to guard...a car dealership and ends up killing someone over what? Cars that are insured? That is the disease and C19 is showing us all how our priorities have been hijacked.

 

[Oldermanish]

well, stock up your bunker. Sounds like you will be there for an extended period.

You really roll out the good stuff here.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Chris to be clear telling American parents that their children are immune from the virus is criminal.

What's the C19 death rate for kids, say, 12 and under? Any Country is fine. And btw, that's not what was said but you know that already.

Telling American families to rest assured that their elderly loved ones are safe because malaria meds and zinc are a known cure for Covid-19 is contemptuous and criminal.

You're on a roll. Go ahead and post where this was said and by whom. And btw, I think the Fake News you are pedaling is borderline criminal. Probably a good thing I'm not in charge.

Telling people despite the documented danger that mass gatherings made them better,more patriotic citizens is\was wrong and it's criminal.

Lots then should be in jail along with most of NY City and State "leadership." See my post upthread.

Masks as an example were explained to the American public as props from the media and the left to make President Trump look weak. That was wrong when he originally said and remains false today..and tomorrow for that matter.

Have you seen the recent video of Madam Speaker getting her hair washed and blown out? There's plenty of this "criminality" to go around.

It is and was certainly criminal conduct,a complete dereliction of duty,when President Trump stated that the virus was a hoax and was an imaginary ailment conjured up by his rivals, he stated that dangerous and obviously deadly line of lies despite having been given official briefings from US medical experts to the contrary.

Probably may want to roll back the tape and if that's criminal for POTUS then it's criminal for everybody else.

The number of people who have died from receiving and following the misinformation given by Trump can never be exactly tabulated,

Neither can tabulations be made of the hundreds of thousands saved by restricting travel from China in January. You know, while the usual ilk were decrying the move as racist and xenophobic.

If you tell someone to inject or drink disinfectant and they do and die,that is murder in my humble opinion.

And that's really strike three.

"The virus dies quickest in sunlight," leaving Trump to wonder whether you could bring the light "inside the body."

"So supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it's ultraviolet or just a very powerful light — and I think you said that hasn't been checked because of the testing," Trump said, speaking to Bryan during the briefing. "And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or some other way, and I think you said you're going to test that, too."

He added: "I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? As you see, it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that."


So what was being referred to was UV light and C19's reaction to it. Interestingly, just 2 days before those comments were made, this was published:

Led by Mark Pimentel, MD, the research team of the Medically Associated Science and Technology (MAST) Program at Cedars-Sinai has been developing the patent-pending Healight platform since 2016 and has produced a growing body of scientific evidence demonstrating pre-clinical safety and effectiveness of the technology as an antiviral and antibacterial treatment. The Healight technology employs proprietary methods of administering intermittent ultraviolet (UV) A light via a novel endotracheal medical device. Pre-clinical findings indicate the technology’s significant impact on eradicating a wide range of viruses and bacteria, inclusive of coronavirus. The data have been the basis of discussions with the FDA for a near-term path to enable human use for the potential treatment of coronavirus in intubated patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Beyond the initial pursuit of a coronavirus ICU indication, additional data suggest broader clinical applications for the technology across a range of viral and bacterial pathogens. This includes bacteria implicated in ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP).
“Our team has shown that administering a specific spectrum of UV-A light can eradicate viruses in infected human cells (including coronavirus) and bacteria in the area while preserving healthy cells,” stated Dr. Pimentel of Cedars-Sinai. Ali Rezaie, MD, one of the inventors of this technology states, “Our lab at Cedars-Sinai has extensively studied the effects of this unique technology on bacteria and viruses. Based on our findings we believe this therapeutic approach has the potential to significantly impact the high morbidity and mortality of coronavirus-infected patients and patients infected with other respiratory pathogens. We are looking forward to partnering with Aytu BioScience to move this technology forward for the benefit of patients all over the world.”

The company believes the Healight platform technology has the potential to positively impact outcomes for critically ill patients infected with coronavirus and severe respiratory infections. The company licensed exclusive worldwide rights to the technology from Cedars-Sinai for all endotracheal and nasopharyngeal indications. Patents have been filed by Cedars-Sinai Department of Technology Transfer, and Aytu BioScience will manage all aspects of intellectual property prosecution and filing globally. Aytu BioScience expects to partner the product outside the U.S.
“We are honored to be partnering with Cedars-Sinai as we believe the Healight therapeutic platform has the potential to help many patients during this coronavirus pandemic and beyond,” said Josh Disbrow, Chairman and CEO of Aytu BioScience.
The Company is engaging with the research team at Cedars-Sinai and the FDA to determine an expedited regulatory process to potentially enable near-term use of the technology initially as a coronavirus intervention for critically ill intubated patients.
Disbrow continued, “This first-in-class technology has the potential to be a game changer for clinicians treating patients infected with coronavirus and other respiratory conditions, and our team is working tirelessly alongside the Cedars-Sinai team to determine the safety and effectiveness of this device in humans.”

Aytu BioScience Signs Exclusive Global License with Cedars-Sinai for Potential Coronavirus Treatment

Press release content from Accesswire. The AP news staff was not involved in its creation.

apnews.com

Now, either you knew this already - which makes you a propagandist - or you didn't know this which makes you an ignorant CNN consumer.

Which is it and are either criminal in your mind?

 

[Oldermanish]

What would the efficacy have to be to be effective given what we all suspect to be true: people will not stand in line to get this vaccination in overly great numbers... or numbers high enough to make a big difference.

"people will not stand in line".....where do you get this? You may not and that would be a problem for any potential widespread immunity. Note: will these vaccines have long term immunity effectiveness? That's the question you should ask, too.
A long conversation with my Son over frustrating in-home schooling revealed he is ready to abandon all measures because there hasn't been a change in the cycle of infections that would make his life "normal" again. There won't be a single silver bullet that protects societies from a pandemic. Abandoning prudent measures out of frustration is another sign that we all lack the discipline to weather this.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

These are the rough estimates. The low bar set by the regulators is 50%, though I think the expectation is that the vaccines will be more effective than that. I would be surprised if the efficacy hits 80% on the first line vaccines.



https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(20)30284-1/fulltext

If 60% efficacy we will need 100% coverage.

Not going to happen in this lifetime or the next. At some point we are all going to have to decide if we can live with this virus or not.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

The U.S.and all the fantastic resources she has available should be deployed in a world wide cooperative effort to control and ultimately eradicate the virus,anything else is an injustice to everyone

You will be waiting a real, real long time for that.

 

[Oldermanish]

What's the C19 death rate for kids, say, 12 and under? Any Country is fine. And btw, that's not what was said but you know that already.



You're on a roll. Go ahead and post where this was said and by whom. And btw, I think the Fake News you are pedaling is borderline criminal. Probably a good thing I'm not in charge.



Lots then should be in jail along with most of NY City and State "leadership." See my post upthread.



Have you seen the recent video of Madam Speaker getting her hair washed and blown out? There's plenty of this "criminality" to go around.



Probably may want to roll back the tape and if that's criminal for POTUS then it's criminal for everybody else.



Neither can tabulations be made of the hundreds of thousands saved by restricting travel from China in January. You know, while the usual ilk were decrying the move as racist and xenophobic.



And that's really strike three.

"The virus dies quickest in sunlight," leaving Trump to wonder whether you could bring the light "inside the body."

"So supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it's ultraviolet or just a very powerful light — and I think you said that hasn't been checked because of the testing," Trump said, speaking to Bryan during the briefing. "And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or some other way, and I think you said you're going to test that, too."

He added: "I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? As you see, it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that."


So what was being referred to was UV light and C19's reaction to it. Interestingly, just 2 days before those comments were made, this was published:

Led by Mark Pimentel, MD, the research team of the Medically Associated Science and Technology (MAST) Program at Cedars-Sinai has been developing the patent-pending Healight platform since 2016 and has produced a growing body of scientific evidence demonstrating pre-clinical safety and effectiveness of the technology as an antiviral and antibacterial treatment. The Healight technology employs proprietary methods of administering intermittent ultraviolet (UV) A light via a novel endotracheal medical device. Pre-clinical findings indicate the technology’s significant impact on eradicating a wide range of viruses and bacteria, inclusive of coronavirus. The data have been the basis of discussions with the FDA for a near-term path to enable human use for the potential treatment of coronavirus in intubated patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Beyond the initial pursuit of a coronavirus ICU indication, additional data suggest broader clinical applications for the technology across a range of viral and bacterial pathogens. This includes bacteria implicated in ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP).
“Our team has shown that administering a specific spectrum of UV-A light can eradicate viruses in infected human cells (including coronavirus) and bacteria in the area while preserving healthy cells,” stated Dr. Pimentel of Cedars-Sinai. Ali Rezaie, MD, one of the inventors of this technology states, “Our lab at Cedars-Sinai has extensively studied the effects of this unique technology on bacteria and viruses. Based on our findings we believe this therapeutic approach has the potential to significantly impact the high morbidity and mortality of coronavirus-infected patients and patients infected with other respiratory pathogens. We are looking forward to partnering with Aytu BioScience to move this technology forward for the benefit of patients all over the world.”

The company believes the Healight platform technology has the potential to positively impact outcomes for critically ill patients infected with coronavirus and severe respiratory infections. The company licensed exclusive worldwide rights to the technology from Cedars-Sinai for all endotracheal and nasopharyngeal indications. Patents have been filed by Cedars-Sinai Department of Technology Transfer, and Aytu BioScience will manage all aspects of intellectual property prosecution and filing globally. Aytu BioScience expects to partner the product outside the U.S.
“We are honored to be partnering with Cedars-Sinai as we believe the Healight therapeutic platform has the potential to help many patients during this coronavirus pandemic and beyond,” said Josh Disbrow, Chairman and CEO of Aytu BioScience.
The Company is engaging with the research team at Cedars-Sinai and the FDA to determine an expedited regulatory process to potentially enable near-term use of the technology initially as a coronavirus intervention for critically ill intubated patients.
Disbrow continued, “This first-in-class technology has the potential to be a game changer for clinicians treating patients infected with coronavirus and other respiratory conditions, and our team is working tirelessly alongside the Cedars-Sinai team to determine the safety and effectiveness of this device in humans.”

Aytu BioScience Signs Exclusive Global License with Cedars-Sinai for Potential Coronavirus Treatment

Press release content from Accesswire. The AP news staff was not involved in its creation.

apnews.com

Now, either you knew this already - which makes you a propagandist - or you didn't know this which makes you an ignorant CNN consumer.

Which is it and are either criminal in your mind?

As of two weeks ago they are preparing to study it. Anything that can help is worth studying but to tout it as a cure is premature. For a world leader to represent it as a cure is ignorant. But you already knew that.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I know it's not politically correct to mention herd immunity with this virus, but I'm referencing highly-qualified experts in the field who's research shouldn't automatically be dismissed.

Those experts, like inexpensive malaria drug cocktail therapies need to be destroyed. Figuratively of course.

 

[djpbaltimore]

"We are Actually Getting Closer to Herd Immunity" -- Dr. Soo Aleman (Karolinska Institute):

She notes that social distancing "is not properly kept very well" and as summertime rolled around there was "crowding at the beaches." And of course there's no mask mandates or recommendations in Sweden with hardly anyone wearing them.

"A new report in the Washington Post described how the impoverished city of Manaus saw hospitalizations plummet even though it had never imposed a lockdown or taken the drastic measures imposed in Asia and Europe. It's also testing far more residents than it once did."

So, Dr. Aleman, MD, PhD, & Associate Professor at the Karolinska Institute is "simply insane" for proposing naturally-occurring herd immunity in Sweden based on her research?

I know it's not politically correct to mention herd immunity with this virus, but I'm referencing highly-qualified experts in the field who's research shouldn't automatically be dismissed.

Strictly speaking, she is 100% right. Also, if I take a walk across the street, I am getting closer to California. Nowhere in that video does she claim that herd immunity has been achieved or is 'close'. Considering that she is a doctor, I am a bit surprised she is talking about outdoor crowding when it is clear from all the research that indoor events are the problematic ones. If you have her objective evidence for herd immunity, I would love to hear it. Based on what she said in that clip, her thesis is unconvincing.

Especially for COVID, how do you estimate the number of people who are staying inside and effectively removing themselves from the viral pool? Human nature is what it is, so I think the people in Manaus saw their hospital infrastructure crumbling and holed up as best they could to limit their exposure. That behavior is not new and is one big reason why you will not hit 60-70%. People would have to be completely unwitting of what is happening around them. Combine that shrinking of the infection pool with the 20-30% actual infections to help constrict the viral spread and it is not hard to see why cases went down. Get R below 1 and that will happen. The people who think 20% is herd immunity are assuming that 40-50% of the population was already immune due to cross-reactive T cells from other CoVs. That is a pretty dubious suggestion at this point.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Discussing this in-depth would be very political, though.

We can agree on this part.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Actually-as people we've abdicated much of the personal responsibility to stay healthy for the benefit of ourselves and others. Developed societies seem incapable of self-denial or discipline and politicians in many countries are taking advantage of the weaknesses.
Keep looking because it isn't one simple answer. The pointless political polarity where citizens are willing to fight and kill each other over a common enemy is more the answer. Look to the leadership and the arc discourse is taking as well.

When a 17 year old kid comes from another state to guard...a car dealership and ends up killing someone over what? Cars that are insured? That is the disease and C19 is showing us all how our priorities have been hijacked.

So the 17-year old kid is the problem and not the people violently protesting. I'll assume you haven't seen the video.

My home is insured... but by your logic if somebody agitated decides to burn it down - for a cause - then, ya know, I should be understanding.

It's so strange that in the same comment you can even mention the phrase 'developed societies.'

 

[Oldermanish]

So the 17-year old kid is the problem and not the people violently protesting. I'll assume you haven't seen the video.

My home is insured... but by your logic if somebody agitated decides to burn it down - for a cause - then, ya know, I should be understanding.

It's so strange that in the same comment you can even mention the phrase 'developed societies.'

The people protesting are doing so for a reason. Those doing it violently and assaulting cops are a problem. That the cops would knowingly set up a militia to be the reception group for all protesters herded their way is a problem.
A 17 year old that would travel out of state with a weapon to protect someone else's sh*t is downright strange, don't you think? That he would shoot two people, killing one before the crowd attacks him is very wrong.
To equate your home and, presumably your family protection to a cop wannabe killing someone for a carlot not in his neighborhood is not a leap in logic. I would not kill someone trying to steal my insured car. Would you?

 

[djpbaltimore]

If 60% efficacy we will need 100% coverage.

Not going to happen in this lifetime or the next. At some point we are all going to have to decide if we can live with this virus or not.

Every little bit helps. If 95% of nursing home residents get it, that would be a great start. Same with frontline medical workers or meatpackers. I think the people that need to interact with people for their jobs or are known to be vulnerable will be inclined to get it. Of course, many won't. If history is any indication, the supply will be the issue over the next 6 months, not the demand.

COVID-19 is not going to go away, but it can 'go away' if we want it to. I've said it before, but vaccines are a lot better at preventing disease than they are at preventing infections. If vaccines protect people from the disease and the illness caused by the virus becomes virtually indistinguishable from the common cold for everybody, it will 'go away' from people's minds very quickly. Swine flu is still one of the circulating flu viruses, but it has effectively 'gone away'. It is tough to prevent upper airway infections with a vaccine. But if a vaccine can limit it to the upper airways, that will go a long way in this battle. We are a lot closer to a return to normalcy than people might realize. But it will not happen on its own. We still have to do some heavy lifting. If the career scientists back the vaccine, I will do my part and be getting it at the first opportunity.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

"people will not stand in line".....where do you get this?

In 2019 the vaccination rate for healthcare workers was below 62%. Consider that is a little less than twice the rate of the general American population.

Influenza kills somewhere between 9,000 and 50,000 people a year and results in about 200,000 hospitalizations. And the general population in the US vaccinated at a rate slightly over 37% for the 2017-2018 flu season.

Note: will these vaccines have long term immunity effectiveness? That's the question you should ask, too.

It's a good question. Here's another: will the vaccine be safe (assuming one works) and what will be the long term effects of being vaccinated, if any?

There won't be a single silver bullet that protects societies from a pandemic. Abandoning prudent measures out of frustration is another sign that we all lack the discipline to weather this.

It's not about discipline. It sounds like your son realizes there is damage being done that you don't seem willing to acknowledge.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

As of two weeks ago they are preparing to study it. Anything that can help is worth studying but to tout it as a cure is premature. For a world leader to represent it as a cure is ignorant. But you already knew that.

"So supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it's ultraviolet or just a very powerful light — and I think you said that hasn't been checked because of the testing," Trump said, speaking to Bryan during the briefing. "And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or some other way, and I think you said you're going to test that, too."

He added: "I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? As you see, it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that."

I don't find it criminal for a world leader to ask relevant questions regarding a potential therapy (or cure) no matter how inarticulate the questions were formulated.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

The people protesting are doing so for a reason.

MLK Jr protested for a reason.

Those doing it violently and assaulting cops are a problem.

So when I say this I'm called a racist. But I agree.

A 17 year old that would travel out of state with a weapon to protect someone else's sh*t is downright strange, don't you think

Yep. I'd put this in the same category as the out of town looters and rioters.

That he would shoot two people, killing one before the crowd attacks him is very wrong.

Sure. He should have waited until the mob beat him to death THEN defend himself.

To equate your home and, presumably your family protection to a cop wannabe killing someone for a carlot not in his neighborhood is not a leap in logic. I would not kill someone trying to steal my insured car. Would you?

I'm equating my home, my property in the greater context of property destruction via rioting/looting.

There are degrees to everything. If I see someone stealing my car I'm going to report it and hope law enforcement - or what's left of it - does their job. If someone tries to steal my car while me or my family is in it there will be much different consequences.

 

[djpbaltimore]

In 2019 the vaccination rate for healthcare workers was below 62%. Consider that is a little less than twice the rate of the general American population.

Influenza kills somewhere between 9,000 and 50,000 people a year and results in about 200,000 hospitalizations. And the general population in the US vaccinated at a rate slightly over 37% for the 2017-2018 flu season.

It's a good question. Here's another: will the vaccine be safe (assuming one works) and what will be the long term effects of being vaccinated, if any?

That assumes that there will be a choice. For healthcare workers, I doubt there will be. Try getting a job in healthcare without a Hep B vaccination. Or, the opt-out criteria of the compulsory COVID-19 vaccine will be extremely narrow. We just got news that there will be a mandatory round of tests after Labor day for everyone on campus. It is not a big leap to suggest that the vaccine will also be mandatory here, though I don't know that for a fact. The polling on COVID-19 vaccine compliance has been really distressing, but one thing it leaves out are the sticks and carrots that will inevitably be used to increase that number.

The one potentially big difference is that I doubt people know any one who died from the Flu. I do know someone who died from Covid and one other that was hospitalized. I bet that is pretty common. I will be the first to admit that we have largely failed from a public health perspective at getting people to take the flu vaccine. It really should be more of a story and we should do a lot more to increase that number. One of the problem set assignments I would give to my students was to look up on the CDC website about the recommendations for flu vaccination. It was a way to get them using the internet to search for medical information, but I also wanted them to see that the CDC recommends that everyone over 6 months of age should get the flu shot every year. Hint, hint.....

Safety should be the first parameter known. The vaccine is effectively gone from your system within 2-3 weeks. Every vaccine known to man has adverse effects*. Some are so rare that they might not be picked up even in the bigger trials. Most are pretty benign. The question of safety is mostly an artifact of how much anti-vaxxer framing has infiltrated our discourse IMO. Efficacy is really the big question.

* as does every medical procedure and every drug people take. Does anyone ever listen to those direct pharma commercials and hear the potential side effects that the narrator lists at rapid speed near the end of the commercial? The psoriasis treatment might cause cancer. Sounds good to me.....

 

[jmdirt]

Are doctors encouraging people to get flu shots in hopes that it will reduce additional strain on medical facilities, or in hopes that it will reduce the number of people who get the flu which challenges their immune system and makes them more susceptible to Covid19? Or maybe that's a yes to both?

 

[movingtarget]

Are doctors encouraging people to get flu shots in hopes that it will reduce additional strain on medical facilities, or in hopes that it will reduce the number of people who get the flu which challenges their immune system and makes them more susceptible to Covid19? Or maybe that's a yes to both?

Australia has had a mild flu season similar to other countries in the southern hemisphere that are now moving into spring.

 

[dusty red roads]

For those interested here's the Japan site that keeps track of all the numbers.

Japan COVID-19 Coronavirus Tracker

Live updates of the Coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in Japan

covid19japan.com

It seems to be on a downward trend at the moment, however in the last week or two schools have opened again (some schools opened earlier than others) so it'll be interesting to see if the numbers rise again.

I have a friend teaching at a branch of an American university here who says their classes are all online. Not sure about the Japanese ones.

 

[Koronin]

That assumes that there will be a choice. For healthcare workers, I doubt there will be. Try getting a job in healthcare without a Hep B vaccination. Or, the opt-out criteria of the compulsory COVID-19 vaccine will be extremely narrow. We just got news that there will be a mandatory round of tests after Labor day for everyone on campus. It is not a big leap to suggest that the vaccine will also be mandatory here, though I don't know that for a fact. The polling on COVID-19 vaccine compliance has been really distressing, but one thing it leaves out are the sticks and carrots that will inevitably be used to increase that number.

The one potentially big difference is that I doubt people know any one who died from the Flu. I do know someone who died from Covid and one other that was hospitalized. I bet that is pretty common. I will be the first to admit that we have largely failed from a public health perspective at getting people to take the flu vaccine. It really should be more of a story and we should do a lot more to increase that number. One of the problem set assignments I would give to my students was to look up on the CDC website about the recommendations for flu vaccination. It was a way to get them using the internet to search for medical information, but I also wanted them to see that the CDC recommends that everyone over 6 months of age should get the flu shot every year. Hint, hint.....

Safety should be the first parameter known. The vaccine is effectively gone from your system within 2-3 weeks. Every vaccine known to man has adverse effects*. Some are so rare that they might not be picked up even in the bigger trials. Most are pretty benign. The question of safety is mostly an artifact of how much anti-vaxxer framing has infiltrated our discourse IMO. Efficacy is really the big question.

* as does every medical procedure and every drug people take. Does anyone ever listen to those direct pharma commercials and hear the potential side effects that the narrator lists at rapid speed near the end of the commercial? The psoriasis treatment might cause cancer. Sounds good to me.....

Right now the clinical trials are not allowing anyone with compromised immune systems into the trials. So it's very likely anyone with that won't be able to get the vaccine for awhile anyway. I would suspect that might be one of those criteria to start with that even health care workers with that issue won't be able to get it.

 

[Cookster15]

Australia has had a mild flu season similar to other countries in the southern hemisphere that are now moving into spring.

The mild flu season is a consequence of Covid-19 measures including social distancing. It works for all respiratory illnesses including flu and the common cold, not just Covid. My local medical centres have been near empty when twice recently visited. Normal wait time 1 to 2 hours. I have never seen this before in about 20 years.