Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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As we wind down toward January 20th..Will history ask..what if it was true?
it's fake
it's under control.
there are only 15-20 cases
there is testing for anybody who wants one
vaccines are months away.weeks away.
a comprehensive, health care plan will be rolled out in a couple of weeks..

what would the world be like? What would the United States be like if any of it was true?
And now there people posting a non existent coincidence of a post November 3 rd vaccine.
first..there is no vaccine.
second..a vaccine that needs to be transported and stored at 80 below zero? That makes it out of the possibility of getting it at your neighborhood clinic or pharmacy..pretty sure that 80 below knocks school nurses out of possible shot callers..
A vaccine that is that touchy will have to be dispensed from a med center..so folks will have to travel to a qualified and capable facility...ooops sorry poor people
 
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How high will it go? Saw another mind boggling stat. 1 out every 1500 people in South Dakota are currently hospitalized with Covid. Nearly 2% have a diagnosed infection. View: https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1326681970051411968
It seems like the US has really entered the fast growth stage we've been seeing in almost all of Europe. The US is much bigger though, with many climate zones, so that should slow down things a bit nationwide, though the wave would likely last longer as the fast growth progresses in consecutive states (and not all at once). I guess the state scale is the most relevant to look at, and places that are cold already are at the head of the curve (like the Dakota's), with others bound to follow (East coast and mid-West prime candidates I'd say, seeing how the weather will cool down).

We've been seeing very interesting trends on this side of the Atlantic. In Belgium, after a very fast rise, we're now seeing a very fast drop - about 45% decreases in infections week-over-week. This is faster than models had predicted, and several possible reasons have been put forward, including cross-immunity. Whatever the case, the drop started about 10-15 days after the first batch of measures, which was mainly focused on closing down pubs, restaurants and cantines (at sports clubs). The much more drastic measures (tele-work obliged, only one contact outside of family, etc.) implemented about 10 days ago are not yet contributing to current trends.

This would mean that closing down those pubs etc. seems very important, which is in line with a new Harvard study, with a limited number of places being responsible for a large number of infections. Of course, together with the first measures, people would also naturally become more prudent, avoiding family contacts etc., but I've long suspected those indoor eat and/or drink places to be strong contributors to the spread of an airborne virus.
 
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I listened to some doctors yesterday,the department head at Harvard,they all concluded that contact tracing is needed and listed multiple benefits,but said because of the overall outlook in the US it's probably a waste of time,for the current national spike.
Tijuana has implemented a $1500 peso fine for not wearing a mask.@$75 bucks.
San Diego has been upgraded and will need to switch to outdoor everything, Saturday night close of business.
 
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It seems like the US has really entered the fast growth stage we've been seeing in almost all of Europe. The US is much bigger though, with many climate zones, so that should slow down things a bit nationwide, though the wave would likely last longer as the fast growth progresses in consecutive states (and not all at once). I guess the state scale is the most relevant to look at, and places that are cold already are at the head of the curve (like the Dakota's), with others bound to follow (East coast and mid-West prime candidates I'd say, seeing how the weather will cool down).

We've been seeing very interesting trends on this side of the Atlantic. In Belgium, after a very fast rise, we're now seeing a very fast drop - about 45% decreases in infections week-over-week. This is faster than models had predicted, and several possible reasons have been put forward, including cross-immunity. Whatever the case, the drop started about 10-15 days after the first batch of measures, which was mainly focused on closing down pubs, restaurants and cantines (at sports clubs). The much more drastic measures (tele-work obliged, only one contact outside of family, etc.) implemented about 10 days ago are not yet contributing to current trends.

This would mean that closing down those pubs etc. seems very important, which is in line with a new Harvard study, with a limited number of places being responsible for a large number of infections. Of course, together with the first measures, people would also naturally become more prudent, avoiding family contacts etc., but I've long suspected those indoor eat and/or drink places to be strong contributors to the spread of an airborne virus.
That is pretty accurate. The 17 states that set hospitalization records Monday are grouped in the upper midwest where cold sets in early. 7k new cases in Wisconsin and 40% test positivity tells the story. Some of it could also be a Sturgis footprint, but the weather is a likely culprit. It was still mid 70s here in the mid-atlantic last weekend, thankfully, but the local hospitals are all yellow or red status, so our time is coming. Hospital bed usage has almost tripled in the last two months, but is still 50% of the spring peak.

Totally agree about the restaurants. Not only is it a place where risky behavior happens, it is a place where people in different pods intersect, further dispersing the virus to new groups of individuals. Same with work break areas in places where mandatory workers still gather. Even a lot of the college football infections like Notre Dame were traced to training tables where the players ate together.
 
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That is why there are pretty much no restrictions in Wisconsin despite the spiraling situation. The Tavern League does not want limits on the bars, so there are no limits on the bars. They know who to talk to. But at the end of the day, it is still people's responsibility to act appropriately. Just because a bar is open does not mean you have to frequent it. There is plenty of blame to pass around.

View: https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1326745912966860800
 
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Colorado is experiencing dramatic increases in cases & hospitalizations (particularly in the 7 county Denver-metro area and some outlying counties that contain state correctional facilities).

We've had mask mandates for months now, business restrictions in place for months, a 10:00 pm curfew that is now in effect - and the situation is getting worse. The public health leaders are demanding the governor or county officials move to a stay-at-home (lockdown) order - or as I call it a psychological enslavement of the citizens.

Look at this graph and tell me with a straight face that the mask mandate has been effective?

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ColleenHuberNMD/status/1326505690442051590?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1326600297658060807%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.embedly.com%2Fwidgets%2Fmedia.html%3Ftype%3Dtext2Fhtmlkey%3Dfd92ebbc52fc43fb98f69e50e7893c13schema%3Dtwitterurl%3Dhttps3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fcjlegalbeagle%2Fstatus%2F1326600297658060807image%3D
 
This is were I think we are at world wide. It's a choice that is being made to put an enormous, disproportionate burden and responsibility on health care. We will just have to wait for the public reaction to the information,forecasts and brief history that our doctors and nurses have been telling us.
in most parts of the world,health care professionals have said that they can't keep up, in the United States,we are having such a spread out spike that traveling to a hot spot to assist has been curtailed for the most part..
And some leaders,like Los Angeles and NYC have few good options in their tool box as the spike increases. With very little help and effort from the public, the political sledge hammer of shutdowns and curfews has no chance of working.
If you are in S.California most speed limits are 55 on the freeway @80-85 mph is the flow of traffic,an acceptable community standard. The idea of trying to enforce laws that most in the community disregard is futile.
Italian police obviously don't see any logic in the approach as a whole, close down for a few hours,risk injury or death to yourself and others, for 2 hours of forced compliance?
We need to listen to the people and allow the death and disease to make it's way as is desired.
Can't change a river.
 
"Pfizer Says Trials Show COVID Vaccine Is 90% Effective, But Questions Remain on Safety of Novel Tech:"


"Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told CNN the vaccine is “the greatest medical advance” in the world’s last hundred years. He told ABC News that the drugmaker “feels very good about the safety.”

"But the New York Times pointed out that Pfizer’s data — delivered in a news release, not a peer-reviewed medical journal — “is not conclusive evidence that the vaccine is safe and effective, and the initial finding of more than 90 percent efficacy could change as the trial goes on.”

"Jesse Goodman, professor of medicine and infectious diseases at Georgetown University, told the Times, “We need to see the actual data, and we’re going to need longer-term results."
 
We've had mask mandates for months now, business restrictions in place for months, a 10:00 pm curfew that is now in effect - and the situation is getting worse. The public health leaders are demanding the governor or county officials move to a stay-at-home (lockdown) order - or as I call it a psychological enslavement of the citizens.

Look at this graph and tell me with a straight face that the mask mandate has been effective?
Doesn't it look like that the mandate broke the first peak in CO? Remember that 10-14 days of data is baked in. So, if a mask mandate is initiated and the numbers start to decrease in two weeks, isn't that evidence that the mandate worked? That is what happened in Maryland when the mask mandates started in Mid-April. Pinning masks on what is happening now is a bit specious. We know certain states where masking is poor (i.e. the Dakotas) and they are faring worse than even their close neighbors. Extrapolate S. Dakota's per capita death toll to the US, and it would be 10K deaths a day. The Mayor of Sioux Falls mayor even said that it wasn't worth making a mask mandate because it wouldn't increase compliance. It is an important layer in protection, but is not going to save us if it is the only thing some people do, albeit intermittently. We need all the marginal benefits of a multi-pronged strategy including masks IMO.

Given that RFK Jr is their chairman, I am going to go out on a limb and say that childrenshealthdefense is an Anti-vaxxer website and probably should not be taken seriously on the topic of vaccines. Just an FYI.
 
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Masks are only one aspect - hyper-focus on it as if it's a magical tool is not helpful. If people still get together in enclosed, poorly ventilated spaces without masks (e.g. for eating or drinking, working out), then the infection will very likely spread. This is not rocket science.
(and of course, if people gather indoors without masks regardless of the occasion, risk of infection is increased as well)

Graph from the Stanford study in Nature (note the X-axis is log-scale!):
 
This is were I think we are at world wide. It's a choice that is being made to put an enormous, disproportionate burden and responsibility on health care. We will just have to wait for the public reaction to the information,forecasts and brief history that our doctors and nurses have been telling us.
in most parts of the world,health care professionals have said that they can't keep up, in the United States,we are having such a spread out spike that traveling to a hot spot to assist has been curtailed for the most part..
And some leaders,like Los Angeles and NYC have few good options in their tool box as the spike increases. With very little help and effort from the public, the political sledge hammer of shutdowns and curfews has no chance of working.
If you are in S.California most speed limits are 55 on the freeway @80-85 mph is the flow of traffic,an acceptable community standard. The idea of trying to enforce laws that most in the community disregard is futile.
Italian police obviously don't see any logic in the approach as a whole, close down for a few hours,risk injury or death to yourself and others, for 2 hours of forced compliance?
We need to listen to the people and allow the death and disease to make it's way as is desired.
Can't change a river.
We dam rivers all the time, but we use force.
 
Masks are only one aspect - hyper-focus on it as if it's a magical tool is not helpful. If people still get together in enclosed, poorly ventilated spaces without masks (e.g. for eating or drinking, working out), then the infection will very likely spread. This is not rocket science.
(and of course, if people gather indoors without masks regardless of the occasion, risk of infection is increased as well)

Graph from the Stanford study in Nature (note the X-axis is log-scale!):
A lady here at work who is at home now with a positive C19 test blamed it on working conditions, but we are all wearing masks. She and her team frequently ate lunch together, and I saw a picture of the Halloween party she threw for her 16 year old daughter...20+ teenager with no masks! Hmmm, could she have gotten it from work 9in general), sure, is it more likely that she got it from eating (no mask) with her team, more likely, but its highly likely that she got it at her Halloween party?
 
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Look at this graph and tell me with a straight face that the mask mandate has been effective?
Read this paper, and tell me with a straight face that seat belts save lives?

 
Totally agree about the restaurants. Not only is it a place where risky behavior happens, it is a place where people in different pods intersect, further dispersing the virus to new groups of individuals. Same with work break areas in places where mandatory workers still gather. Even a lot of the college football infections like Notre Dame were traced to training tables where the players ate together.
Urgh, I just don't get it. Stay at home. Throwing Halloween parties and no masks being worn? Why go to a restaurant don't these people understand what has been happening? Surely you would have to live under a rock to be unaware of the risks in America. Same with college football players eating together.

Buy home delivery. Wear masks when appropriate. Work from home if possible. I read these snippets and wonder what planet some people are on. It really isn't that hard to put the brakes on transmission but at least make some effort.

The US recorded 161,000 new Covid cases on November 12. Over 1,000 deaths per day. It ain't going to improve if people are not more responsible.
 
The news just gets grim and grimmer for the U.S.

A new model forecasts about 440,000 deaths by March 1.

Daily new cases may rise to 300,000 by the end of the year. That would be perhaps 1.5 million people infected, more than 10 million per week.

El Paso in November is like NYC in March, with 1 in every 30 citizens with an active case, and mobile refrigerated trucks needed to pick up the bodies.
 
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