Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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185,000 cases and about 1400 deaths. Let's assume that deaths lag cases by about three weeks. Three weeks ago, there were about 80,000 cases, so the case mortality rate is roughly 1.75%. As a check on that, we can go back to the last two weeks of September, when the number of daily cases was fairly constant at about 42,300. Beginning three weeks later, the number of daily deaths was fairly constant for the next two weeks, at 760/day, or 1.80%. That also is consistent with an infection mortality rate of about 0.35%, assuming about five times as many infections as cases.

Apply 1.75% to 185,000 cases, and we have about 3250 deaths. That is the expected number of people who will die in about three weeks, give or take, from just the new cases today. Because of lags in reporting on weekends, the 185,000 cases does not necessarily represent the average number of cases per day that are occurring right now. Over the past week, the average number of cases has been about 143,000 per day. That is a minimum estimate, though, which assumes that the case rate has peaked, and will not rise further.

Even using that figure, and a 1.75% CFR, we should expect 2500 deaths per day beginning in three weeks, and continuing as long as the current case rate doesn't fall. At that rate, there will be about 115,000 deaths beginning three weeks from now and till Inauguration Day. Assuming just 1500 deaths per day for the next three weeks, which is very likely an underestimate, there will be about 145,000 additional deaths, bringing the total close to 400,000, by the time Biden takes office.

Unless there are massive changes in social behavior that occur very soon, I don't see how we can avoid these numbers. Frankly, the estimate of 440,000 deaths by the end of February looks low to me, unless some social changes are factored in. There is an estimate of more than 500,000 deaths by the end of February, if people do essentially nothing. Other estimates project 300,000 cases/day by the end of the year, which would result in more than 5000 deaths/day. The CFR is much lower than it used to be, reflecting younger people getting infected, better medical treatments for those most at risk, and just testing a larger proportion of those infected. But I don't see any current trends that are likely to drive that rate much lower.
Not sure there are any positive initiatives to use as an example other than health care professionals repeating the weary warnings of March. This while the election loser declares victory over the pandemic and continues to occupy the Executive branch of authority until he is physically removed.
Watching the dueling mass political rallies today suggest that this will get worse. Governor Noem of South Dakota is bathing in willful ignorance as her political stock goes up as with Georgia senate candidates facing a January run-off. Lockdowns aren't in their strategy, period and they declare that regularly. We have the perfect political and media argument where a good chunk of 72million American voters are now suggesting they don't watch "fake media" and get their information directly from their "trusted" elected officials tweets or alternative websites. They declare this commitment to their truth in Washington DC at this very minute with little to no protection from infection. Add in the zealous counter-protests and it's an experiment in societal priorities. We can trace the major cause of the attitude in our elected officials with only State authorities offering up any programs.
That many informed folks just wear down and get careless makes it harder to watch.
 
It's weird how the mask mandate is argued..if you live in an apartment building or attached condo complex and only 30% of the people have operational smoke detectors..nobody is protected including the 30% who were in compliance with the safety standard..drunk driving? If you don't but get plowed by someone who does..doesn't matter your stance on beer and bourbon for breakfast.
noise ? So if a guy with 10,000 watts of bass decides to indulge in a hip hop greatest beats session while you are at a wake, it's done..
The whole freedom thing sounds cool in theory until somebody starts acting out..archery range in an apartment complex courtyard, funny car burn outs in the elementary school parking lot..
Nothing should be assumed during the times that Covid is revealing every possible bad human instinct..
in San Diego..50% of the deaths and 62% of all the cases are amongst Latinos..so what would be the reasoning for a lack of interest by other groups?
federal government knows that brown and black people are disproportionately impacted,death,admission,infection..why would this be an emergency?
And now outward talk of a deadly political pandemic grudge?
I am still scared as to just how ugly this is going to get.
 
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Exactly...why isn't it effective now? On the 2nd extension on Sept 13, cases were flat. However, shortly thereafter the upward trend initiated and by the time of the third extension on Oct 11, cases were exploding and are continuing to do so. So, from an observational standpoint, masks seemed to have been effective in the very short term during the tail end of summer but now appear ineffective deep into the fall months.

And how bad would the situation be here without a mask mandate? Well...according to dept of health experts things are as bad as it can get presently. They're all in state of hysteria like I've never seen before. Of course, the case positively rate is the highest ever (which could have been the result of the push for increased testing that starting in the early fall - at about the same time cases started increasing on the graph). Hospitalizations have exceeded the highest number back in the spring. But deaths are significantly down from the highs back in the spring (88.5% of all deaths are age 60 & above).

And what the authorities have done is quite dramatic already: 10:00 pm curfew, businesses, gyms, churches, etc., 25% capacity or 25 people (whichever is fewer), most schools going virtual, no fans at any sporting events (including the Broncos), a no socialization recommendation with anyone outside of your household, and a demand to celebrate Thanksgiving with only household members or self-quaratine starting now. These are pretty strict mitigation factors just shy of a full lockdown.

There are several alternative care centers in the metro that were set up last spring and were never used. The authorities can activate those units for the overflow and augment staff. They'll have to improvise and deal with it. This virus isn't going anywhere and we're going to have to live it.

To reiterate, those are pretty strict mitigation orders that, IMO, go too far and hurt businesses in particular. All this govenor has done is criticize & condemn the Colorado citizens for not doing enough to stop the spread. It's been none stop denunciation that we're socialization too much with none-household members, participating in large gatherings at personal residences, unecessarily leaving your home, and so forth. The constant criticism is uncalled for and the hallmark of a Leftist governor enamored with power & control.


Other states and regions are getting bad also. This is the U.S. where some governors chose to value personal freedoms and rights over lockdowns that do nothing but destroy economies, kill people caught up in the collateral damage and esentially psychologically enslave the citizens. The "cure" simply becomes worst than the disease itself. Noem, a Libertarian, isn't going to risk the damage done by lockdowns:

"If Joe Biden enacts mask mandates, lockdowns, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem won't enforce them."


"The office of Gov. Kristi Noem said in a statement to the Argus Leader Friday that the first-term governor, who's risen to stardom in the Republican party for her hands-off approach to managing the pandemic, has no intention of using state resources to enforce any federal COVID-19 orders."

"Noem reiterated her position on lockdowns Thursday on social media when she said they don't effectively stop the spread of COVID-19 but have negative effects on businesses and the overall economy."


"We already know that lockdowns don't stop the spread of the virus. However, they destroy small businesses and jobs, and they make it difficult for families to put food on the table," she wrote."

"It's a good day for freedom. Joe Biden realizes that the president doesn't have the authority to institute a mask mandate," said Ian Fury, communications specialist for Noem. "For that matter, neither does Governor Noem, which is why she has provided her citizens with the full scope of the science and trusted them to make the best decisions for themselves and their loved-ones."
Trusting people to make good decisions is how we are in the situation that we are currently in IMO.

An example of good decision making.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1327617307594682372
 
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This article validates my opinion that genetics must be at play, once you exclude the elderly and those with co-morbidities - The unanswered question is once you exclude vaccines and better treatments when ill - Is how do you unlock this case of genetics ?
 
This article validates my opinion that genetics must be at play, once you exclude the elderly and those with co-morbidities - The unanswered question is once you exclude vaccines and better treatments when ill - Is how do you unlock this case of genetics ?
just so it's clear to all Americans..this is not our plan!!!we are still working on hand washing and not dribbling on each other..a full DNA profile on every citizen is g going to take a few extra days..for now lets rejoice that Amazon delivery drivers are plentiful,so if one catches a case of the China virus ..no big deal!!
Black Friday will have a whole new meaning this year
 
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This article validates my opinion that genetics must be at play, once you exclude the elderly and those with co-morbidities - The unanswered question is once you exclude vaccines and better treatments when ill - Is how do you unlock this case of genetics ?
AFAIK, you can't. The authors suggest plasmapheresis, but I don't know how doable that is in a short time span. Screening is easier but I doubt that happens either.
 
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BoJo is self-isolating after being in close contact with someone who tested positive. What's surprising about this is that the PM of course has already had a bout with C19, so NHS must be taking the possibility of reinfection fairly seriously.

How many people who tested positive has Trump come into contact with just since his own case? Pretty sure he wouldn't self-isolate under any circumstances.

Edit: I just learned that Senator Rand Paul said people who have recovered from C19 should "throw away their masks", and "go out to a restaurant and live again".
 
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Reactions: jmdirt
Given what's going on in Sweden/Madrid/Belarus/Florida/any other place of your choice that had a major outbreak in the first wave or put very little mitigating measures in place I would also be somewhat concerned whether the immunity is lasting (even taking increased testing into account).

Of course I haven't followed the publications very closely (so somewhat can correct me), but I think so far the duration of immunity is rather unknown.

I think there is a study currently (?) going on in Ischgl to compare the level of people with antibodies to a previous study in April. I think T cell immunity is also being looked into. Results should be out in a couple of months.

I can only get data for districts for Austria, and while Landeck (the district for Ischgl) has one of the lowest 7-day number of cases per 100 000 in Austria it's still pretty high at at 328.9.
 

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