Not sure there are any positive initiatives to use as an example other than health care professionals repeating the weary warnings of March. This while the election loser declares victory over the pandemic and continues to occupy the Executive branch of authority until he is physically removed.185,000 cases and about 1400 deaths. Let's assume that deaths lag cases by about three weeks. Three weeks ago, there were about 80,000 cases, so the case mortality rate is roughly 1.75%. As a check on that, we can go back to the last two weeks of September, when the number of daily cases was fairly constant at about 42,300. Beginning three weeks later, the number of daily deaths was fairly constant for the next two weeks, at 760/day, or 1.80%. That also is consistent with an infection mortality rate of about 0.35%, assuming about five times as many infections as cases.
Apply 1.75% to 185,000 cases, and we have about 3250 deaths. That is the expected number of people who will die in about three weeks, give or take, from just the new cases today. Because of lags in reporting on weekends, the 185,000 cases does not necessarily represent the average number of cases per day that are occurring right now. Over the past week, the average number of cases has been about 143,000 per day. That is a minimum estimate, though, which assumes that the case rate has peaked, and will not rise further.
Even using that figure, and a 1.75% CFR, we should expect 2500 deaths per day beginning in three weeks, and continuing as long as the current case rate doesn't fall. At that rate, there will be about 115,000 deaths beginning three weeks from now and till Inauguration Day. Assuming just 1500 deaths per day for the next three weeks, which is very likely an underestimate, there will be about 145,000 additional deaths, bringing the total close to 400,000, by the time Biden takes office.
Unless there are massive changes in social behavior that occur very soon, I don't see how we can avoid these numbers. Frankly, the estimate of 440,000 deaths by the end of February looks low to me, unless some social changes are factored in. There is an estimate of more than 500,000 deaths by the end of February, if people do essentially nothing. Other estimates project 300,000 cases/day by the end of the year, which would result in more than 5000 deaths/day. The CFR is much lower than it used to be, reflecting younger people getting infected, better medical treatments for those most at risk, and just testing a larger proportion of those infected. But I don't see any current trends that are likely to drive that rate much lower.
Watching the dueling mass political rallies today suggest that this will get worse. Governor Noem of South Dakota is bathing in willful ignorance as her political stock goes up as with Georgia senate candidates facing a January run-off. Lockdowns aren't in their strategy, period and they declare that regularly. We have the perfect political and media argument where a good chunk of 72million American voters are now suggesting they don't watch "fake media" and get their information directly from their "trusted" elected officials tweets or alternative websites. They declare this commitment to their truth in Washington DC at this very minute with little to no protection from infection. Add in the zealous counter-protests and it's an experiment in societal priorities. We can trace the major cause of the attitude in our elected officials with only State authorities offering up any programs.
That many informed folks just wear down and get careless makes it harder to watch.