Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[hrotha]

Given what's going on in Sweden/Madrid/Belarus/Florida/any other place of your choice that had a major outbreak in the first wave or put very little mitigating measures in place I would also be somewhat concerned whether the immunity is lasting (even taking increased testing into account).

I don't think the scale of the second wave tells us much about the duration of immunity, because none of those places were close to herd immunity even immediately after the first wave. About 11-12% of people in the Madrid region had antibodies in May-June.

It should be noted however that, in Spain, 14.4% of people who had antibodies between late April and early May had lost them by June, according to the seroprevalence study that was carried out.

 

[Merckx index]

Seven states have exceeded death rates of 1 per 1000, or 0.1%. That isn’t deaths per infections, as some researchers were claiming a while ago, but for the entire population. While five of those states are in the northeast, and experienced the bulk of their deaths early in the pandemic, Louisiana and Mississippi are now on this list, and North Dakota will be soon. In fact, the U.S. as a whole may hit that figure by the end of the year, and almost certainly will before Inauguration Day.

The states with the lowest death rates, as you’d expect, tend to be sparsely populated rural areas, and/or geographically isolated from the rest of the country: Vermont, Maine, Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Wyoming have rates < 0.03%.

If you want a rough idea of how well states are handling the pandemic, given their situation, you could do worse than look at death rates/population density, since PD is strongly correlated with case and death rates (currently, r=0.68). By this measure, the best states are: HI, RI, MD, VM, NJ, DE, OH, MA, CT, and CA. Hawaii has a huge advantage in being geographically isolated from the rest of the U.S., and is an under-appreciated piece of evidence for the effectiveness of restricting entry into areas. It has benefitted in the same way that island nations like Taiwan, S. Korea (effectively an island), New Zealand and Australia have. Warm weather/outdoor living probably helps a lot, too. Most of the other states are NE ones with very high populations densities. They were hit hard by C19 early in the pandemic, which forced them to take it very seriously. Thus they have tended to be better prepared to handle the recent spike.

OTOH, the worst states by this metric are: AK, ND, MT, SD, WY, NM, NV, ID, MS, NE, AZ, AR, LA, KS, MS. Alaska is especially noteworthy, as it’s about as isolated as HI. OTOH, it has a very cold climate, which has meant people spend more time indoors. Most of the other states are in rural areas with low population density. They missed most of the heavy impact of the earlier phase of the pandemic, and tended to take it less seriously, an attitude for which they're now paying.

 

[Unchained]

The problematic way of viewing all this has been far and wide, urban rural..like any good firefighter..put it out now no time to discuss the spread.
The virus is a scourge no matter where..we need to get a strategy that protects all..not region or race by region or race..this federal fire truck showing up w a thimble of water to a five alarm emergency is absolutely idiotic!!
Why?
This is an emergency,has been. We don't need tweets or golf shot video,a real days work..por favor!!

 

[dusty red roads]

Very interesting article in the Sydney Morning Herald today, worth a read:

Is the coronavirus getting less deadly or is treatment getting better?

Countries hit by second waves are seeing huge numbers but lower death rates. Why? Are we just getting better at treating the virus, is it a bonus from mask wearing or could COVID already be mutating into something milder?

www.smh.com.au

 

[Merckx index]

In the U.S., at least, the reduced mortality rate is driven in large part by younger people getting infected (median age dropped a full decade just from April to July) and better treatment for those at risk. But while the case mortality dropped dramatically from the first peak (April cases) to the second peak (July cases)--5.68% to 1.66%--it hasn't dropped any further in this current wave. This suggests to me that most of the decrease is driven by younger people getting tested, which I don't think has changed much since July.

But the article raises an interesting possibility about masks. We've mostly been talking about how they can reduce transmission, as an all-or-none situation. You either get infected or you don't. But given that masks do reduce the amount of virus exhaled into the air, it's reasonable to believe that even when people do get infected, they might have lower viral loads, and possibly therefore milder cases.

That's another answer to the anti-mask crowd, that keeps pointing to situations where masks apparently haven't reduced infections. Even in those cases, masks may have reduced viral loads and severity of infections. Masks were initially discouraged, and according to one study, the number of people who said they wore one at least some of the time increased from 50% in April to 95% by the end of July. So it's possible that mask-wearing contributed significantly to the lower mortality rate during that period.

Despite the anti-mask protests, that number seems to have held steady, with a recent poll finding that 92% of Americans saying they wear one when leaving home, and 74% saying they always do (I do wonder, if as the case with political polls of Trump supporters, the number of anti-maskers may be under-estimated--because they don't answer the question honestly, are harder to reach by phone, associate with a demographic not well represented in the survey, etc.). In any case, this plateau of mask wearing is also consistent with the flattening of the case mortality rate since July.

Poll finds more Americans than ever think we should wear masks

A new National Geographic survey found that most Americans, regardless of their backgrounds and political beliefs, have changed their minds about mask-wearing.

www.nationalgeographic.com

Of course, a relatively small number of anti-maskers may result in a disproportionate amount of transmission, if they tend to associate with each other. If people who never wear a mask are, say, 10% of the population, but spread randomly throughout crowds, they might not have too much effect on transmission. But if large numbers of people who think this way gather, as we saw in Trump's campaign rallies, that's a recipe for super-spreading.

 

[Jagartrott]

More good news - especially regarding the mild side effects, the fact that all serious cases were recorded with the placebo group, the observation that it also worked in older people and the less difficult storage of this one. Production seems to be slower than in Pfizer/BioNTech though.

Hopes of Covid vaccine for more than 1bn people by end of 2021

Moderna becomes second firm to reveal positive results with nearly 95% protection in trials

www.theguardian.com

 

[roundabout]

I don't think the scale of the second wave tells us much about the duration of immunity, because none of those places were close to herd immunity even immediately after the first wave. About 11-12% of people in the Madrid region had antibodies in May-June.

It should be noted however that, in Spain, 14.4% of people who had antibodies between late April and early May had lost them by June, according to the seroprevalence study that was carried out.

My uncertainty about how many people had antibodies is the reason why I mentioned Ischgl as it was one of the hotspots in the first wave and I think over 40% of people had antibodies in April.

It's a shame though that more detailed data for Ischgl for this wave can not be found and Ischgl is only something like 3 and bit percent of the population in Landeck which also complicates things.

 

[movingtarget]

Covid: 6,000 UK volunteers to be injected with vaccine in phase 3 trial

Third vaccine to undergo large-scale clinical testing in Britain has been modelled on Ebola jab

www.theguardian.com

 

[Mayomaniac]

My uncertainty about how many people had antibodies is the reason why I mentioned Ischgl as it was one of the hotspots in the first wave and I think over 40% of people had antibodies in April.

It's a shame though that more detailed data for Ischgl for this wave can not be found and Ischgl is only something like 3 and bit percent of the population in Landeck which also complicates things.

I can't find the study right now, but apparently the immunity only lasts for about 3-4 months, it also depends of the amount of antibodies that your body produces. I know a nurse who got it during the first wave and now she tested positive once again.
In Gröden/the Val Gardena 26.86% of the population (still) had antibodies in late May/early June.
They already had done a private study in April, back them 50% of the people who participated in the Val Gardena had antibodies.
Source: https://www.medinlive.at/wissenschaft/nur-rund-ein-viertel-im-suedtiroler-groeden-hat-antikoerper

 

[djpbaltimore]

Very interesting article in the Sydney Morning Herald today, worth a read:

Is the coronavirus getting less deadly or is treatment getting better?

Countries hit by second waves are seeing huge numbers but lower death rates. Why? Are we just getting better at treating the virus, is it a bonus from mask wearing or could COVID already be mutating into something milder?

www.smh.com.au

viruses need to host to survive. Think of them as the zombie pirates of the microscopic world. Half living, half dead, they commandeer the cellular machinery of other organisms to make copies of themselves – and spread.

Lol. That is one way to think about it. I think the improvement in critical care medicine has a lot to do with the decreasing mortality, which is touched on a bit. Also, the increased spread of the virus means that the hotspots are not so centered in the second wave, so not stretching medical capacity beyond the breaking point in places like we saw in NYC and Lombardy. The age of infection suggests it is lower now, but I am more skeptical as I think most young people who were positive in the first wave rode it out at home and never got tested. The sampling bias of the tests in March/ April were for people in hospitals (i.e. older). The older are being more protected and careful now, so there probably is a change, but I don't think it is big enough to account for differences in mortality. The mutation theory is interesting, but has mostly been a red herring so far.

ETA. I saw this interview this morning after catching her viral tweets over the weekend. How long can we expect the medical community to weather this storm? Also, as good as the vaccine news is, how many of the people who minimize the threat are going to get one? The sentiment she talks about also reminds me of some of the AIDS patients who succumbed with the same mindset. Tommy Morrison being a prime example.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1328319845012824065

View: https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1328319845012824065

 

[Nomad]

Couldn't agree more with Prof Gupta:

"Sunetra Gupta on Unprofessional Conduct of Pro-Lockdown Scientists"

The BFD | Sunetra Gupta on Unprofessional Conduct of Pro-lockdown Scientists

covidplanb.co.nz Sunetra Gupta, a founding signatory of the Great Barrington Declaration, wrote for the Daily Mail. Here is an edited set of excerpts. I was utterly unprepared for the onslaught of …

thebfd.co.nz

"I was utterly unprepared for the onslaught of insults, personal criticism, intimidation and threats that met our proposal. The level of vitriol and hostility, not just from members of the public online but from journalists and academics, has horrified me."

"That is why I have found it so frustrating how, in recent weeks, proponents of lockdown policies have seemed intent on shutting down debate rather than promoting reasoned discussion."

"It is perplexing to me that so many refuse even to consider the potential benefits of allowing non-vulnerable citizens, such as the young, to go about their lives and risk infection, when in doing so they would build up herd immunity and thereby protect the lives of vulnerable citizens."

"Yet rather than engage in serious, rational discussion with us, our critics have dismissed our ideas as ‘pixie dust’ and ‘wishful thinking’."

"But the Great Barrington Declaration represents a heartfelt attempt by a group of academics with decades of experience in this field to limit the harm of lockdown. I cannot conceive how anyone can construe this as ‘against the national interest’."

"On social media, meanwhile, much of the discourse has lacked any decorum whatsoever."

"I have all but stopped using Twitter, but I am aware that a number of academics have taken to using it to make personal attacks on my character, while my work is dismissed as ‘pseudo- science’. Depressingly, our critics have also taken to ridiculing the Great Barrington Declaration as ‘fringe’ and ‘dangerous’."

"But this pandemic is an international crisis. To shut down the discussion with abuse and smears — that is truly dangerous"

 

[djpbaltimore]

She can write whatever she wants, but it should be noted that her predictions that the UK was close to herd immunity in March and that the infection fatality rate would be close to 1 in 10,000 are some of the worst predictions made about COVID from any authority figure in academic Science. If she can't handle criticism like that, I don't think there is much more to be said. As I have written previously, I would like her to reflect on why she was so wrong before lecturing us on what we should be doing about COVID.

Following up on some of the clinical trial data. From a ModeRNA press release, it did what I was hoping it would do. It decreased severe disease. All 11 cases were in the placebo arm. But as I noted before, these are still relatively small numbers. What we don't know is whether it protects against virus transmission or death. No deaths in either group from what I can tell.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1328356809250369536

View: https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1328356809250369536

 

[Unchained]

Have read a few crazy back and forths about Rand Paul's recent comments about immunity. His engagement didn't surprise me,discovering that he is a medical doctor blew me away. He says things that are possible comments of a person exhaling a big hit of meth but not a doctor

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pu4nYq8kn0A

 

[Unchained]

Mexico's spike will probably see border closure go well into the new year..San Diego getting a condition upgrade will probably be the final nail in the coffin of all the business in S Bay San Diego..as vultures do..I will pay attention to Guitar Center,Vans, Nike and other outlet stores..there is no hope w an out of control pandemic on both sides of the border

 

[Unchained]

Border businesses, already hurting, prepare for purple tier

Like so many businesses throughout San Diego County, businesses along the border in San Ysidro are also preparing to scale back operations because of the state's COVID-19 purple tier.

www.10news.com

 

[Unchained]

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-HHCV6l37Jg

 

[Unchained]

Moderna's coronavirus vaccine is 94.5% effective, according to company data | CNN

The Moderna vaccine is 94.5% effective against coronavirus, according to early data released Monday by the company, making it the second vaccine in the United States to have a stunningly high success rate.

edition.cnn.com

also worth noting..doesn't need to transported and stored at 80 below zero..could make distribution easier

 

[Unchained]

Covid vaccine: First 'milestone' vaccine offers 90% protection

The vaccine is a "significant step" forward for getting life back to normal, but challenges remain.

www.bbc.com

 

[Unchained]

Covid: Vaccine will 'not return life to normal in spring'

Leading scientists call for realism about what a vaccine against Covid can achieve next year.

www.bbc.com

 

[jmdirt]

Seven states have exceeded death rates of 1 per 1000, or 0.1%. That isn’t deaths per infections, as some researchers were claiming a while ago, but for the entire population. While five of those states are in the northeast, and experienced the bulk of their deaths early in the pandemic, Louisiana and Mississippi are now on this list, and North Dakota will be soon. In fact, the U.S. as a whole may hit that figure by the end of the year, and almost certainly will before Inauguration Day.

The states with the lowest death rates, as you’d expect, tend to be sparsely populated rural areas, and/or geographically isolated from the rest of the country: Vermont, Maine, Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Wyoming have rates < 0.03%.

If you want a rough idea of how well states are handling the pandemic, given their situation, you could do worse than look at death rates/population density, since PD is strongly correlated with case and death rates (currently, r=0.68). By this measure, the best states are: HI, RI, MD, VM, NJ, DE, OH, MA, CT, and CA. Hawaii has a huge advantage in being geographically isolated from the rest of the U.S., and is an under-appreciated piece of evidence for the effectiveness of restricting entry into areas. It has benefitted in the same way that island nations like Taiwan, S. Korea (effectively an island), New Zealand and Australia have. Warm weather/outdoor living probably helps a lot, too. Most of the other states are NE ones with very high populations densities. They were hit hard by C19 early in the pandemic, which forced them to take it very seriously. Thus they have tended to be better prepared to handle the recent spike.

OTOH, the worst states by this metric are: AK, ND, MT, SD, WY, NM, NV, ID, MS, NE, AZ, AR, LA, KS, MS. Alaska is especially noteworthy, as it’s about as isolated as HI. OTOH, it has a very cold climate, which has meant people spend more time indoors. Most of the other states are in rural areas with low population density. They missed most of the heavy impact of the earlier phase of the pandemic, and tended to take it less seriously, an attitude for which they're now paying.

Since I was born and raised in ID, I can speak to the states low IQ average as a huge factor in our worsening rates.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Covid: Vaccine will 'not return life to normal in spring'

Leading scientists call for realism about what a vaccine against Covid can achieve next year.

www.bbc.com

We don't need to vaccinate everyone asap, the main thing to get as many members of the at risk groups vaccinated asap, they should have priority over pretty much everyone else (besides those working in the hospitals, of course). That should really reduce the strain on our heathcare systems and lead to a drastic reduction of people who need to be in intensive care.

 

[Unchained]

Today is the Mexican Independence Day observance.. There is also a SCORE event going on..town is not full but way way more people than normal..probably less than 40-50% wearing masks..and lots of bars are working with an innovative food cart fix for the government restrictions on alcohol only establishments..so you don't have to eat a hotdog or taco w your booze but you gotta buy it.. Americans are acting like animals recently released from prison..main street tables filled with people drinking and getting group photos..
It was not in my heart to ask our house \ pet sitter to work today so I could put in a routine day of work

 

[Unchained]

We don't need to vaccinate everyone asap, the main thing to get as many members of the at risk groups vaccinated asap, they should have priority over pretty much everyone else (besides those working in the hospitals, of course). That should really reduce the strain on our heathcare systems and lead to a drastic reduction of people who need to be in intensive care.

you are correct,and that sounds like the government strategy for immunization..one tiny quirk..given government discussions about who is in the risk group..and they said "essential workers" ..it would look like in the US alone those fitting initially discussed criteria..100 million plus Americans..

 

[Unchained]

I also am unsure about information sharing and confidence in the overall process. That said, all countries look to be qualifying vaccine use and approval under something that includes the word " emergency " that includes China. If the United States and China can figure a way to collaborate it may increase the speed of science,given that China is apparently ahead of the United States in everything Covid-19, cases, treatment,data, real world working relationship with the virus and their economy and citizens, and now w early use of developed vaccines.
I understand why the American government has made the choice to reinvent the wheel..silly probably to argue it. But we can still learn from it.

Brazil halts trials of Chinese COVID-19 vaccine

Trials stopped after ‘adverse’ incident involving vaccine that has become political football in Brazil.

www.aljazeera.com

Brazil allows trials of Chinese vaccine to resume

Brazil's national health regulator allowed clinical trials of a Chinese-developed COVID-19 vaccine to resume Wednesday, two days after suspending them in what critics called a decision tainted by politics.

medicalxpress.com

 

[Unchained]

Brazil all over the place..but that has been from the pandemic starting gun