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Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

Page 177 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
As i pointed out upthread, deaths lag about three weeks, at least, behind cases. In fact, deaths in the U.S as a whole are rising. From the Worldometer:

Oct. 1 -7: 5055
Oct 8 - 14: 5081
Oct. 15-21: 5571
Oct. 22-28: 5727
Oct. 29-Nov. 4: 6259
Nov 5 - Nov. 11: 7562
Nov. 11 - 17: 8137 (and not complete)

Deaths have risen by 60% in the past five weeks. And as I noted upthread, at the current rate of daily new cases, at least 150,000, we can expect more than 2500 deaths per day in a few weeks, which would be more than double what we now have, and about three and a half times what the rate was in early October.



"They were going to die, anyway" is the view of a large fraction of people. I've seen this view expressed by many people on other forums. This is why Trump hasn't taken the pandemic very seriously. He and his enablers usually don't state this honestly, but it comes out in the support for herd immunity, and Trump's argument that only 0.1% of infected die.
It's more that Trump and his staff were never prepared to respond to any pandemic, then were swayed by the herd immunity theory which allowed them to do absolutely nothing except assign responsibility downstream to individual states. That further allowed the politicization of the issue and the labelling of red and blue state "good" and "bad" to bolster his election on a singular economic argument. Now that 87 year old GOP Senator Grassley is covid positive they can spin his health outcome either way. Death as an inevitability or survival as a vindication of WH policy and and testimony to strong GOP resistance to the disease. And today Pence and the largely absent WH Task force held a presser stating the obvious as far as spread and precaution but offering no real insistence or assistance on protocols.
 
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In the Senate, a Democratic Senator asked a Republican Senator to wear a mask while speaking. The R Senator refused, and another R Senator, Ted Cruz, had this response:

"This is idiotic. @SherrodBrown is being a complete ass. He wears a mask to speak—when nobody is remotely near him—as an ostentatious sign of fake virtue."

While Brown was a long distance from the Senator speaking, if you have people speaking for a sustained period of time indoors, air-borne virus can build up. Also, it appears that the speaking Senator was very close to several staff members.

 
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It's more that Trump and his staff were never prepared to respond to any pandemic, then were swayed by the herd immunity theory which allowed them to do absolutely nothing except assign responsibility downstream to individual states. That further allowed the politicization of the issue and the labelling of red and blue state "good" and "bad" to bolster his election on a singular economic argument. Now that 87 year old GOP Senator Grassley is covid positive they can spin his health outcome either way. Death as an inevitability or survival as a vindication of WH policy and and testimony to strong GOP resistance to the disease. And today Pence and the largely absent WH Task force held a presser stating the obvious as far as spread and precaution but offering no real insistence or assistance on protocols.

Spinning survival as vindication of anything only works when everyone has access to the same treatments.
 
As i pointed out upthread, deaths lag about three weeks, at least, behind cases. In fact, deaths in the U.S as a whole are rising. From the Worldometer:

Oct. 1 -7: 5055
Oct 8 - 14: 5081
Oct. 15-21: 5571
Oct. 22-28: 5727
Oct. 29-Nov. 4: 6259
Nov 5 - Nov. 11: 7562
Nov. 11 - 17: 8137 (and not complete)

Deaths have risen by 60% in the past five weeks. And as I noted upthread, at the current rate of daily new cases, at least 150,000, we can expect more than 2500 deaths per day in a few weeks, which would be more than double what we now have, and about three and a half times what the rate was in early October.

The rate of deaths we are seeing now is very similar to the rate at the peak last summer, because it reflects the case rate of about three weeks ago, late October, which was similar to the case rate at the peak in July. This is an average across the entire country, and the pattern of hotspots is somewhat different, but at this point, the case mortality rate appears to have stabilized at about 1.75%. Barring some major advances in treatment, or some new, more effective way of shielding those at risk, I don't think that rate is going to change much.



"They were going to die, anyway" is the view of a large fraction of people. I've seen this view expressed by many people on other forums. This is why Trump hasn't taken the pandemic very seriously. He and his enablers usually don't state this honestly, but it comes out in the support for herd immunity, and Trump's argument that only 0.1% of infected die.
I think the outbreaks in more rural places are going to cancel out some of the improvements made in patient care due to older populations and worse hospital infrastructure, so I think 1.75% will increase. The antibody cocktails are just not plentiful enough to make a dent in that figure over the next few months. They might help a few more VIPs, but rank and file people should not expect a treatment breakthrough.
 
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From CNN (first place I found for the info). Pfizer appears to have their safety data in and is apparently getting everything together to apply for emergency approval for the vaccine.

 
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Republican governors of hard-hit mid-western and far-western states are beginning to change their tune:

North Dakota
"Right now, the data demands a higher level of mitigation efforts to reverse these dangerous trends, to slow the spread of this virus and to avoid the need for economic shutdowns," Burgum said in a video message announcing the measures. "Our situation has changed, and we must change with it."

Wyoming
In a news conference brimming with frustration and anger, he called people "knuckleheads" for their irresponsible actions and said it was "time that Wyoming woke up and got serious about what it's doing."

The virus itself has compromised the workforce more than any government actions, Gordon said.

"We've had more businesses around the state closed by sick workers than by any of our health orders," he said.

Iowa
And so on Monday, Reynolds overcame her resistance and instituted a new health order requiring masks indoors and further limiting indoor gatherings to 15 people.

She said hospitals have been pushed to the brink by the spread of the virus, and she accused many Iowans of becoming "complacent" about the need to flatten the curve.

"That doesn't mean that these changes will be easy or popular, but they're necessary if we want to keep our businesses open, our kids in school and our health care systems stable," she said.

Nebraska
Ricketts also asked people to wear masks but pushed back against statewide requirements, saying, "I am in favor of educating people."

He spoke Friday while self-quarantining at home with his wife after a dinner guest tested positive for Covid-19. He has tested negative for the virus.

Idaho
"We've come to the profound conclusion that what we've been doing hasn't been working," Little said Friday.

South Dakota (Well, not everyone is changing their tune)
Despite the rising health disaster, Noem said Friday that her strategy has worked.

"I knew that South Dakotans could be trusted to exercise their personal responsibility, and each and every one of these people have proven me right," she said in a statement.

This is how well the Governor's strategy has worked:

South Dakota has averaged more than 1,400 new coronavirus cases per day over the past week in a state with about 885,000 people. Adjusted for population, it's the second-highest number of new average cases in the country. The state's seven-day positivity rate is a stunning 58%, and more people are hospitalized per capita than in any other state, according to the Covid Tracking Project.

SD is also the state where a nurse recently reported that people dying of C19 can't believe it's real.

 
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Republican governors of hard-hit mid-western and far-western states are beginning to change their tune:

North Dakota


Wyoming


Iowa


Nebraska


Idaho


South Dakota
(Well, not everyone is changing their tune)


This is how well the Governor's strategy has worked:



SD is also the state where a nurse recently reported that people dying of C19 can't believe it's real.

How do you get people to care after you have been telling them 'no big deal' for months? That is why you need consistent messaging. But that boat has sailed. It is going to be a grim winter. Here in MD, we have instituted a curfew on restaurants and further decreased capacity and also restricted visits to nursing homes, but the hospitalizations have doubled in two weeks. We are at about 60% of our spring peak.

Example number 1 billion that masks don't work when you take them off and eat. View: https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1329065332867289095
 
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Republican governors of hard-hit mid-western and far-western states are beginning to change their tune:
Well...good, maybe it'll be effective for those states. I'm not, and have never been, opposed to wearing a mask, except when working out at the gym where it's unhealthy to wear a face covering (the W.H.O. doesn't recommend wearing a mask when excercising). So, here in the Denver-metro I wear my mask everywhere I go and as I mentioned previously, mask compliance is very high in my neck of the woods.

My contention has been, based on observational data of these infection rate graphs, some states with masks mandates are not stopping or slowing down these rising infection rates....period. There was recent article in the LA Times that said wear masks or face lockdowns. There are some Western states that have been in a mask mandate for months with high compliance. However, due to significant increases in cases have now gone to full lockdowns.

Washington in a lockdown:


Oregon in a two-week "freeze:"


New Mexico following suit with a hard lockdown:


And here in Colorado as I feared, the govenor has pulled the trigger with a level-Red "Stay-at-Home" order effective this Friday.

If masks are supposed to slow the spread and reduce infections so heads of states don't have to implement barbaric lockdowns - it simply did not have the desired effect in the aforementioned states.

South Dakota (Well, not everyone is changing their tune)
The Rapid City town council is voting on a mask mandate tonight and more than likely will pass. The Standing Rock Sioux Indian Reservation already has a mask mandate:


Maybe it wouldn't hurt Noem to do a statewide mandate for political reasons. But it doesn't mattter as the Leftist MSM will start shouting for lockdowns anyway.

Noem is Libertarian and was the only govenor that did not order any business or school restrictions of any kind back in the spring. She sticks to her guns and believes in the Constitution and freedom. And, btw, large numbers of people are relocating to SD - so it can't be all that bad:

 
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That article about South Dakota is just Lolololololol. Product placement masquerading as local news. Almost all of it relies on a single anecdote and credulously transcribing what local real estate agents are hyping. Breaking news....local realtor says this is a great place to buy a home.
“I heard the other day that there’s an agent that wrote up three offers where, basically, the client has never seen the property because they know the market is so hot,” said Larry Luetke, president of the Realtor Association of the Sioux Empire, based in Sioux Falls. “There’s just a lot of people looking at our state right now.”
Many of his new clients say South Dakota’s refusal to mandate masks or shut down businesses were among the top reasons they chose to move to the state, Luetke said. “They’re, basically, moving here right now because of our governor,” Luetke said.
The South Dakota Association of Realtors normally collects monthly housing market statistics for the whole state but is between third-party data collectors and does not have reliable current statistics.
For all the people moving from sunny climates, enjoy the next 6 months of cold and snow and wind and dark. If seeing snow in May was on your bucket list, you will absolutely love it. Whether you enjoy masks or not, they will soon be required if you don't want your nose to fall off due to frost bite. When you have a cold snap where the high temps don't go above 0 F for days on end, you will have the freedom to do whatever you want, but absolutely no desire to leave your house. I lived in a South Dakota town for almost 7 years when I was a kid. That is the main reason that I clicked on the article, but it was worth the read. Some places will benefit from increased work from home due to COVID, but the weak school system in South Dakota is going to be a deal breaker for many people who want or have families.

View: https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1329046386352992265
 
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My contention has been, based on observational data of these infection rate graphs, some states with masks mandates are not stopping or slowing down these rising infection rates....period.
You cannot state that, because you don't have data from an alternate universe where a state did not mandate masks. It's completely nonsensical to point at anyplace infections go up and say: see, the infection rate goes up and these people wear masks - masks don't work! Masks reduce spread, and maybe severity of infections due to lower viral loads, but they don't reduce it to zero. Moreover, wheneven indoor locations remain open where a lot of people gather while not wearing masks (e.g. to eat, drink, sport), you will see plenty of infections.

It's not that difficult. Masks are no magic tools, as some people seem to think (yes, wearing a face mask while walking in nature is stupid), but they are also not useless.
 
That article about South Dakota is just Lolololololol. Product placement masquerading as local news. Almost all of it relies on a single anecdote and credulously transcribing what local real estate agents are hyping. Breaking news....local realtor says this is a great place to buy a home.For all the people moving from sunny climates, enjoy the next 6 months of cold and snow and wind and dark. If seeing snow in May was on your bucket list, you will absolutely love it. Whether you enjoy masks or not, they will soon be required if you don't want your nose to fall off due to frost bite. When you have a cold snap where the high temps don't go above 0 F for days on end, you will have the freedom to do whatever you want, but absolutely no desire to leave your house. I lived in a South Dakota town for almost 7 years when I was a kid. That is the main reason that I clicked on the article, but it was worth the read. Some places will benefit from increased work from home due to COVID, but the weak school system in South Dakota is going to be a deal breaker for many people who want or have families.

View: https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1329046386352992265
Governor Kristi: keep trying, Ms. Noem. You can be NUMBER 1!
 
It's not that difficult. Masks are no magic tools, as some people seem to think (yes, wearing a face mask while walking in nature is stupid), but they are also not useless.

This is the crux of the matter. Social distancing, work from home etc is the best way to restrict transmission and this needs to be emphasized all over the world. But you are not going to be successful if you think wearing a mask to a party makes having the party okay.

I still get the impression that in America too many people are in denial. Incredible since 254,000 have now died from Covid and over 1,000 more dying every day.

I've experienced a hard lockdown in my part of the world I know it can work to bring this virus under control. I also know life can return to some semblance of normal when everyone does the right thing, restrictions are eased and new cases are stopped from being introduced from outside the cleared region. But I concede this is very difficult in parts of America and Europe. But I have read too many examples in this thread where basic precautions are being ignored.
 
That's like saying the seat belts didn't prevent injury in a fatal car crash without ever gathering data on people that didn't ever wear seatbelts. Right?
Its not like seatbelts at all. The statement by Mike DeWine is dangerously misleading. Utterly irresponsible in fact. Masks should only ever be considered a secondary method. Of course they work but not much good if you all maintain crowded, close proximity working and living. Masks won't prevent everything and if wearing a mask makes people complacent about other risky behavior then that is counter productive.
 
Protecting the vulnerable has morphed into to visit them for Thanksgiving because they are probably about to die anyway. Their arguments are so transparently illogical that it boggles the mind that Atlas is the chief scientist in charge of the COVID task force.

View: https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1328502026381176832
He is a bad human!

So a 65 year old grandmother will probably die before next Thanksgiving anyway?!
 
In the Senate, a Democratic Senator asked a Republican Senator to wear a mask while speaking. The R Senator refused, and another R Senator, Ted Cruz, had this response:



While Brown was a long distance from the Senator speaking, if you have people speaking for a sustained period of time indoors, air-borne virus can build up. Also, it appears that the speaking Senator was very close to several staff members.

Cruz knows ass!
 
I think the outbreaks in more rural places are going to cancel out some of the improvements made in patient care due to older populations and worse hospital infrastructure, so I think 1.75% will increase. The antibody cocktails are just not plentiful enough to make a dent in that figure over the next few months. They might help a few more VIPs, but rank and file people should not expect a treatment breakthrough.
We're seeing a surge in rural Eastern Washington from a Senior Care facility and....a 300 guest wedding that was purposely held away from any authorities. Oh...the State Representative for that District just tested positive today, too.
My kids live there and they are echoing some of the same strains about restrictions but still observe mask and "bubble" protocols. It's hard to avoid arguments, though.

Update on our Republican representative: my mistake; he's our representative to Congress, not our State. I'm so much more proud. Rep Dan Newhouse plans: "I am quarantining and will continue to serve the people of Central Washington from home." Dan-do us all a favor and stay where you are.
 
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Its not like seatbelts at all. The statement by Mike DeWine is dangerously misleading. Utterly irresponsible in fact. Masks should only ever be considered a secondary method. Of course they work but not much good if you all maintain crowded, close proximity working and living. Masks won't prevent everything and if wearing a mask makes people complacent about other risky behavior then that is counter productive.
When stated that way; you and I would agree. But the car analogy is similar in that seatbelts are mandated in vehicles but of no use if misused. For someone to say they don't work is pointless.
 
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Masks work. Candles on your Christmas tree are dangerous. Running w scissors is dangerous, running w scissors holding a baby is even more dangerous, running w that combo while high is even riskier.
governor Dewine, like so many others is trying to solve a public health crisis,not a political point. Giving people a collective public health approach is just common sense,or what used to be called common sense. If a governor tells you not to drive towards a fire,flood or tornado, those warnings used to be welcome news,seen as an act of caring and conscious,compassion.
Suddenly the information is a violation of civil rights,un patriotic.
Any person who can't forego a coffee,beer,Turkey dinner,or wear a mask for 1 holiday season is a selfish,unpatriotic bag of steaming dogschit.
That's based on science.
I don't know if many here ever served aboard ship. We had lecture after lecture after lecture about keeping things clean for the good of all. Not using resources for the good of all..we were also briefed about looking after one another,
In situations where your judgement may be impaired.on one ship we were given a notebook that contained photos of male and female genitals in different states of disease from partaking in local delicacies of infectious flesh. Told flat out,don't do it..I remember getting my second injection early on in our cruise. Not because I got VD, but because one of my shipmates,could not control himself..our shop supervisor had us line up,remove our pants and underwear, a corpsman then handed you a vile, it was chilled penicillin, you were encouraged to rub it,try and warm it,because when it was injected it would be very uncomfortable and painful. They were right,it hurt like f-ck.
The story has a couple of twists, Mr. Drill Everybody was put on restriction and was not allowed to leave the ship when we were in port and enjoying a great liberty call.
The last twist ,we went to the Philippines,we all got off,ate food,drank and I w a couple of guys went diving to see sea life that blew me away. We got back underway and sure enough the usual suspects all had some ailment,causing fever and infection..the next time we pulled in we were all denied liberty. Nobody was allowed to go ashore that was not a senior NCO or officer,the reasoning was that we couldn't look out for one another. Some troubled sailors were " counseled " using some voodoo like techniques, an exorcism of sorts, were their insatiable desire to f up was beaten out of them.
As the cruise continued the dirty among us, was brow-beaten ,shamed into community compliance for the good of all.
Wearing a mask may harm my family,so to be surprised by reaction to that would only surprise a fool.
A quarter million fellow Americans dead and chumps are still debating wearing masks,nationwide!!
Corona Virus task force "doctor" telling people to " rise up " against health mandates. Jan 20th can't come soon enough.