Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Chris Gadsden]

So the bottom line here is nobody has a handle on this. We are learning a lot as we go along. Would that be fair?

Again, Fauci and Birx estimated 200,000 dead if the Country did everything "perfectly." That's from our two best doctors specializing in immunology. Not economics, not suicide prevention, not mental health disorders.

If we did everything "perfectly" in the eyes of top immunologists, we still have 200,000 dead from COVID. That's 200,000 dead if Fauci and Birx alone were in charge of the response and every American complied with the program with or without the bad man in office.

So anyway, let the hysterical rants of how an administration is criminally liable for what has happened with the pandemic so far continue unabated.

 

[Merckx index]

More than 2,000 American deaths were recorded by Johns Hopkins University on Thursday -- the highest number since early May.

And as the virus runs unabated across US communities, experts warn the coming weeks will likely be brutal and the pandemic's death toll will keep climbing.

By December 18, more than 2,300 Americans could be losing their lives daily, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

"We expect daily deaths to reach a peak of over 2,500 a day in mid-January," the IHME modeling team wrote on Thursday.

The group also hiked its Covid-19 death forecast considerably, now predicting a total of 471,000 American deaths by March 1 -- up more than 30,000 since their last projection about a week ago.

US coronavirus hospitalizations, new cases break record for second straight day | CNN

The number of Americans hospitalized with Covid-19 and the number of new US cases reported rose to record levels for a second day in a row on Friday.

edition.cnn.com

I think they’re way off. We have averaged 170,000 cases per day for the past week. That will result in about 3000 deaths a day in three weeks, by the end of the first week in December. That is baked-in, it’s unavoidable, and I see no way that figure will decline unless cases do. They’re predicting 2000 deaths/day by the first week in December, but we’re already at that level now. Even if cases started declining today, we still would hit 3000 deaths/day in three weeks. You don’t need a sophisticated model to see that.

From looking at their website, I think their projection was based on cases as of Nov. 9. But they seem to have used the wrong fatality rate. They projected deaths would be 1337/day on Nov. 20, and clearly they were way off. They seem to base their projections of deaths on estimates of infections, and for Nov. 20 they have 370,000. But with 200,000 cases, infections have to be much more than that.

Assuming cases peak right now, today, and don't decline, there will be about 375,000 deaths by the end of the year. Even assuming that case numbers are cut in half, an extraordinarily optimistic estimate, there would be 425,000 deaths by the end of February.

No, the horrible humans will have hundreds of millions of 90+% effective vaccine doses within months - not years- of the outbreak with a brilliant understanding of how a public/private can work while simultaneously doing whatever is possible to balance economic needs of people like you and me.

I'm glad you support public/private working together, also known as mixed capitalism, a notion heavily resisted by many in non-pandemic times. Not underestimating what the Administration did, but any President, any party in power, would have supported vaccine development. Beginning the day the Chinese published the SARS-CoV-2 sequence back in January, labs all over the world started working on vaccines. Of course they were going to ask for money, and of course any government with the wherewithal was going to give it to them. There would have been rioting in the streets if the government had said, we won't support vaccine development.

The government did not hire the scientists, it didn't tell them what to do. It simply gave them money. Again, I'm not belittling that, but it isn't the money that is driving the unprecedented ability to turn out an effective vaccine in a relatively short time. It's scientific knowledge and expertise, accumulated over the years despite cuts to research. The most important impact of the money is for ramping up production of the vaccine, which is the result of gambling that the vaccine would work before the results were in. That gamble seems to have paid off.

Ben Carson, HUD Secretary and 69 years old with "several comorbidities", tested positive, and says that at one point he was "desperately ill". He was given monoclonal antibodies, and thinks that treatment saved his life.

Meanwhile, in Australia, the terrible costs of lying:

A pizza worker's lie forced an Australian state of 1.7 million people into lockdown | CNN

A pizza bar worker with Covid-19 who lied about their employment activities triggered a lockdown across the entire state of South Australia, authorities were forced to admit Friday.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Koronin]

The data was not in conflict for HCQ if you were paying attention to what I was posting. And there were zero randomized control trials to support its use unlike the data I posted for Remdesivir. Ultimately, the WHO thinks that the data is not strong enough to make a firm conclusion after looking at multiple additional studies and they recommend more clinical trials before giving their approval. You want absolute certainty, but as I've mentioned, that is not something that most clinical trials can provide, unless the drug is a knockout. Remdesivir probably has beneficial effects if given ASAP after infection. But given the expense and need for an IV, it makes it more questionable. If it was cheap and easier to administer, I think the WHO would recommend its use. I don't make any recommendation because I don't work at the FDA, so whether WHO and I are in alignment is not relevant. The key difference between HCQ and Remdesivir was in the quality and transparency of the decision making process IMO. The former was based on cheerleading of anecdotal (and possibly fraudulent) evidence by people like Dr. Oz, while the latter is based on examination of controlled trials by a panel of the best experts in the world. AFAIK, Remdesivir is still going to be used in the US as it just got another emergency approval from the FDA as part of a combo therapy just yesterday. As a nation, we can afford to spend money on something that may only be marginally useful. A lot of WHO member nations can't.

I've read they are working on a inhaler type spray for Remdesivir. I suspect if they can get that to work, it can be given to people long before they need to be hospitalized.

 

[hrotha]

Meanwhile, in Australia, the terrible costs of lying:

A pizza worker's lie forced an Australian state of 1.7 million people into lockdown | CNN

A pizza bar worker with Covid-19 who lied about their employment activities triggered a lockdown across the entire state of South Australia, authorities were forced to admit Friday.

edition.cnn.com

I find the framing highly suspicious. Why would an employee lie about their being employed somewhere? Might that have anything at all to do with their employer(s)? Perhaps someone pressured their workers not to take sick leaves? And to cover it up after the fact?

 

[yaco]

I find the framing highly suspicious. Why would an employee lie about their being employed somewhere? Might that have anything at all to do with their employer(s)? Perhaps someone pressured their workers not to take sick leaves? And to cover it up after the fact?

Let's get the facts correct - This virus somehow escaped from an overseas arrival who tested positive and was housed in a quarantine hotel - This is the fifth case in Australia of the virus escaping from a quarantine hotel/centre and was the cause of the 15-week lockdown in Melbourne, Australia. Australians from the very top are guilty of demonizing low-paid workers who test positive if they consider they've done the wrong thing - It's a disappointing attitude.

 

[movingtarget]

Let's get the facts correct - This virus somehow escaped from an overseas arrival who tested positive and was housed in a quarantine hotel - This is the fifth case in Australia of the virus escaping from a quarantine hotel/centre and was of course the result of the 15 week lockdown in Melbourne, Australia. Australians from the very top are guilty of demonising low-paid workers who test positive if they consider they've done the wrong thing - It's a disappointing attitude.

Most of the demonizing being done is from the media. Still the truth matters especially during a pandemic but of course some politicians will never pass up an opportunity to fan the flames if they think there are votes attached.

 

[movingtarget]

Donald Trump Jr tests positive for coronavirus

President’s eldest son, who learned of his diagnosis earlier this week, is fourth member of Trump family to contract Covid

www.theguardian.com

if ever a workplace symbolized it's efficiency in dealing with a pandemic..................

 

[yaco]

Most of the demonizing being done is from the media. Still the truth matters especially during a pandemic but of course some politicians will never pass up an opportunity to fan the flames if they think there are votes attached.

Marshall did himself no favours yesterday - Of course, the irony is politicians have put this cohort of unqualified workers into unnecessary danger by having them 'police' new arrivals who test positive in quarantine hotels - And the greatest irony is politicians lie more than most.

 

[movingtarget]

Trials to begin in UK for Covid antibody cocktail drug treatment

Scientists say jab could be used to protect those who cannot be given vaccines

www.theguardian.com

 

[Unchained]

You know Chris,strange BBQ protocols..put a cover aluminum foil, plastic wrap over your food..Nobody within reason would conclude that covering your food would reduce contact with bugs and bacteria..
until now.
How could putting an absorbent anything in front of your mouth be a political statement?
before Trump,covering your mouth when you cough was considered polite..
Now condomless sex w playmates and porn stars is an act of fundamental Christianity..?
Go figure!!
Masks work. The data the science is in..the absolute numbers..maybe not..but spit to spit..droplets to droplets transfer is bad..undesirable amongst most..at Kid Rock concerts swapping spew may be looked at as patriotic..but most of the country doesn't get a partial over the prospect

 

[Unchained]

And Yes Chris you are 1000000000% correct nobody has a handle on this. In the United States because we have 50 state different approaches..and within that thousands more variables..
it could have never worked.
it didn't work
it's not working
and the wheel reinvention
why are Chinese,Korean or other successful countries not consulting the United States.. They got it right,we didn't..deep breath,we were wrong.
The fact that China,US and Europe are not working together is a disgusting consequence of US policy..

 

[Chris Gadsden]

You know Chris,strange BBQ protocols..put a cover aluminum foil, plastic wrap over your food..Nobody within reason would conclude that covering your food would reduce contact with bugs and bacteria..
until now.
How could putting an absorbent anything in front of your mouth be a political statement?
before Trump,covering your mouth when you cough was considered polite..
Now condomless sex w playmates and porn stars is an act of fundamental Christianity..?
Go figure!!
Masks work. The data the science is in..the absolute numbers..maybe not..but spit to spit..droplets to droplets transfer is bad..undesirable amongst most..at Kid Rock concerts swapping spew may be looked at as patriotic..but most of the country doesn't get a partial over the prospect

Drink less when you post. Thanks.

 

[Merckx index]

This third wave, hitting countries with harsh winters that force people indoors more, is a great equalizer. Even countries that did really well in combating the virus earlier in the pandemic are feeling the effects. Iceland at one point had virtually eradicated the virus. In the past two months, it has had 3000 cases, more than all the cases it had prior to that point. To an American, that may not sound like a lot, but in a country of only about 350,000 people, that’s about 140 cases per million per day. Over the same period, the U.S. averaged about 250 cases per million per day.

However, Iceland seems to be responding effectively. Over the past two weeks, the rate has been just 44 per million per day, while the U.S. rate has soared to 475 per million per day. In fact, Iceland’s rate per million per day was actually slightly higher than America’s from the middle of September to October, but while cases have continued to rise exponentially in the U.S., Iceland’s rate has not. Why not? I haven’t looked into this, but I’d guess they are renewing restrictions on foreigners entering the country, and continuing widespread testing and contact tracing.

Sweden has been the darling of those opposed to lockdowns, but it’s seeing a spike in cases that has led to a call for further restrictions. Over the past week, it has averaged 330 cases per million per day, not a lot better than the U.S. And as before, it’s doing much worse than its Nordic neighbors. While there has been a spike in cases in Denmark, Norway and Finland, those countries combined have a daily case rate per million about 120. They haven’t been untouched by cold weather, but they are doing a better job of mitigating the viral spread.

How about S. Korea, held up as an example of a country far more successful than the U.S. in stopping the spread of the virus? By the end of April, daily cases were down almost to zero. There was a constant but low number till the middle of August, when there was another spike, though it would have been barely noticeable in the U.S.—less than six cases per million per day. Now there is another spike, again up to about 6 per million per day. But temperatures are still fairly mild there, cases may rise further when it gets colder.

 

[Koronin]

This third wave, hitting countries with harsh winters that force people indoors more, is a great equalizer. Even countries that did really well in combating the virus earlier in the pandemic are feeling the effects. Iceland at one point had virtually eradicated the virus. In the past two months, it has had 3000 cases, more than all the cases it had prior to that point. To an American, that may not sound like a lot, but in a country of only about 350,000 people, that’s about 140 cases per million per day. Over the same period, the U.S. averaged about 250 cases per million per day.

However, Iceland seems to be responding effectively. Over the past two weeks, the rate has been just 44 per million per day, while the U.S. rate has soared to 475 per million per day. In fact, Iceland’s rate per million per day was actually slightly higher than America’s from the middle of September to October, but while cases have continued to rise exponentially in the U.S., Iceland’s rate has not. Why not? I haven’t looked into this, but I’d guess they are renewing restrictions on foreigners entering the country, and continuing widespread testing and contact tracing.

Sweden has been the darling of those opposed to lockdowns, but it’s seeing a spike in cases that has led to a call for further restrictions. Over the past week, it has averaged 330 cases per million per day, not a lot better than the U.S. And as before, it’s doing much worse than its Nordic neighbors. While there has been a spike in cases in Denmark, Norway and Finland, those countries combined have a daily case rate per million about 120. They haven’t been untouched by cold weather, but they are doing a better job of mitigating the viral spread.

How about S. Korea, held up as an example of a country far more successful than the U.S. in stopping the spread of the virus? By the end of April, daily cases were down almost to zero. There was a constant but low number till the middle of August, when there was another spike, though it would have been barely noticeable in the U.S.—less than six cases per million per day. Now there is another spike, again up to about 6 per million per day. But temperatures are still fairly mild there, cases may rise further when it gets colder.

Based on this, S Korea is still doing a very good job.

Although I think somewhere in here New Zealand should get some credit as they appear to have eradicated it from their island and they are now headed for warmer months.

 

[movingtarget]

This third wave, hitting countries with harsh winters that force people indoors more, is a great equalizer. Even countries that did really well in combating the virus earlier in the pandemic are feeling the effects. Iceland at one point had virtually eradicated the virus. In the past two months, it has had 3000 cases, more than all the cases it had prior to that point. To an American, that may not sound like a lot, but in a country of only about 350,000 people, that’s about 140 cases per million per day. Over the same period, the U.S. averaged about 250 cases per million per day.

However, Iceland seems to be responding effectively. Over the past two weeks, the rate has been just 44 per million per day, while the U.S. rate has soared to 475 per million per day. In fact, Iceland’s rate per million per day was actually slightly higher than America’s from the middle of September to October, but while cases have continued to rise exponentially in the U.S., Iceland’s rate has not. Why not? I haven’t looked into this, but I’d guess they are renewing restrictions on foreigners entering the country, and continuing widespread testing and contact tracing.

Sweden has been the darling of those opposed to lockdowns, but it’s seeing a spike in cases that has led to a call for further restrictions. Over the past week, it has averaged 330 cases per million per day, not a lot better than the U.S. And as before, it’s doing much worse than its Nordic neighbors. While there has been a spike in cases in Denmark, Norway and Finland, those countries combined have a daily case rate per million about 120. They haven’t been untouched by cold weather, but they are doing a better job of mitigating the viral spread.

How about S. Korea, held up as an example of a country far more successful than the U.S. in stopping the spread of the virus? By the end of April, daily cases were down almost to zero. There was a constant but low number till the middle of August, when there was another spike, though it would have been barely noticeable in the U.S.—less than six cases per million per day. Now there is another spike, again up to about 6 per million per day. But temperatures are still fairly mild there, cases may rise further when it gets colder.

I guess getting it right before flu season hit was always going to be important. But yes harsh winters just exacerbate the issues. Countries in the southern hemisphere mostly dodged a bullet in the winter with the flu where the winter climate is much less of an issue as well.

 

[movingtarget]

Based on this, S Korea is still doing a very good job.

Although I think somewhere in here New Zealand should get some credit as they appear to have eradicated it from their island and they are now headed for warmer months.

The early closure of borders helped Australia and NZ plus the general isolation of their geography, targeted testing, lockdowns, tracing, quarantines, mask protocols, crowd limits re shopping and favourable population densities compared to many other countries. Plus they both had strong national guidelines working with the states and provinces , not always seeing eye to eye on border closures but still cooperating and looking past political differences. It all helped.

 

[Merckx index]

Although I think somewhere in here New Zealand should get some credit as they appear to have eradicated it from their island and they are now headed for warmer months.

My understanding is that most of NZ stays fairly warm, at least not very cold, all year round. As do many SE countries that have also avoided a new wave.

 

[Oldermanish]

I'll go ahead and assume you are meaning death count from COVID. By going totalitarian in attempting to minimize COVID death count the death count, despair count, financial ruin count, isolation count, education disparity count all skyrocket. Many of the negative counts listed in the previous sentence will outlast - by decades -the Corona Virus.

But so what, right?



An interesting quote regarding history;

“In all revolutions the vanquished are the ones who are guilty of treason, even by the historians, for history is written by the victors and framed according to the prejudices and bias existing on their side." - George Graham Vest

Yassss. George was good for a turn of phrase. Unfortunately his quote didn't quite pan out for the Confederacy; Lincoln was rightfully accorded his due as Victor without a rewrite. He did what most historians acknowledge although there are still folks down South that think it's 1864 and they have a shot. They lost. No Equivocation.

 

[Oldermanish]

Donald Trump Jr tests positive for coronavirus

President’s eldest son, who learned of his diagnosis earlier this week, is fourth member of Trump family to contract Covid

www.theguardian.com

if ever a workplace symbolized it's efficiency in dealing with a pandemic..................

The virus seems to work easiest through the weakest in this particular gene pool, too. Intellectually speaking, that is.

 

[roundabout]

I don't get the 200 000 deaths quote. I went back to search for context and it seems that it referred to total deaths during the course of the pandemic.

One poster's continued use of the 200 000 deaths quote seems to imply that they don't count against the current admin.

Well, problem one is that the quote is not a mandate to not try to do things better than the 'perfect' estimate made 7 months ago.

I am sure beating it would have meant a few different outcomes down the line.

Problem 2 that at least to me it looks like getting creative with the statistics merely for the sake of justifying ones political choices.

Problem 3 is an obvious inconsistency, where Fauci expertise is used when he is one of the people behind the estimate that puts the current admin in a more favorable light (supposedly) while at the same time being rather dismissive of Fauci's other positions like masks.

Problem 4 is that the 'almost perfect' estimate was made when the pandemic was allowed to gain a foothold in the US. So it's not a measure of the effectiveness of response from the very beginning.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Yassss. George was good for a turn of phrase. Unfortunately his quote didn't quite pan out for the Confederacy; Lincoln was rightfully accorded his due as Victor without a rewrite. He did what most historians acknowledge although there are still folks down South that think it's 1864 and they have a shot. They lost. No Equivocation.

Lol. George was good for a turn of phrase... and the one quoted was in reference to the results of the war as a sitting US Senator in 1891.

As for Lincoln, he was hated worse than the dude we have now.

This Republican president "has continued during the past week to make a fool of himself and to mortify and shame the intelligent people of this great nation. His speeches have demonstrated the fact ... he is no more capable of becoming a statesman, nay, even a moderate one, than the braying ass can become a noble lion. People now marvel how it came to pass that ... should have been selected as the representative man of any party... have made us the laughing stock of the whole world. The European powers will despise us because we have no better material out of which to make a President ..." - The Salem Advocate, 1861

On Lincoln’s Gettysburg address from the Chicago Times;

“The cheek of every American must tingle with shame as he reads the silly flat dishwatery utterances of a man who has to be pointed out to intelligent foreigners as the President of the United States.”

No equivocation? Lolz

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I don't get the 200 000 deaths quote. I went back to search for context and it seems that it referred to total deaths during the course of the pandemic.

One poster's continued use of the 200 000 deaths quote seems to imply that they don't count against the current admin.

Well, problem one is that the quote is not a mandate to not try to do things better than the 'perfect' estimate made 7 months ago.

I am sure beating it would have meant a few different outcomes down the line.

Problem 2 that at least to me it looks like getting creative with the statistics merely for the sake of justifying ones political choices.

Problem 3 is an obvious inconsistency, where Fauci expertise is used when he is one of the people behind the estimate that puts the current admin in a more favorable light (supposedly) while at the same time being rather dismissive of Fauci's other positions like masks.

Problem 4 is that the 'almost perfect' estimate was made when the pandemic was allowed to gain a foothold in the US. So it's not a measure of the effectiveness of response from the very beginning.

Problem 1, if we are going to listen to the scientists and they tell us at the beginning of the pandemic that if we do everything perfectly (the didn’t define ‘perfect‘ so one must extrapolate what was meant from the immunologists perspective) that we would still lose 200,000 people to the virus then I’m not exactly sure why those participating in this thread with their hair on fire are behaving the way they are wrt blame placing for those that have passed from Covid.

Problem 2, Fauci has changed his position on masks.

Problem 3, “the pandemic was allowed to gain foothold” is nonsense. This Country is not run buy an authoritarian government like the CCP. We were never going to trap covid positive people in their apartment high-rise by welding the doors shut to keep them from infecting others.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

The virus seems to work easiest through the weakest in this particular gene pool, too. Intellectually speaking, that is.

A compelling argument. Shame the C19 positives as stupid.

 

[Nomad]

It's not that difficult. Masks are no magic tools, as some people seem to think (yes, wearing a face mask while walking in nature is stupid), but they are also not useless.

According to Redfield, masks are in deed "magic tools." In fact, he says they're are more effective than the vaccines:

View: https://youtu.be/cIVTOkfvmxk


What a total waste of money on the R&D of vaccines when a 10 dollar box of surgical masks could get the job done. Lol.

 

[Nomad]

"Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period of Italy."

Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy - PubMed

There are no robust data on the real onset of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and spread in the prepandemic period worldwide. We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific antibodies in blood samples of 959 asymptomatic...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

"We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)–specific antibodies in blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 to track the date of onset, frequency, and temporal and geographic variations across the Italian regions."

"SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%), with a cluster of positive cases (>30%) in the second week of February 2020 and the highest number (53.2%) in Lombardy."

"This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified, and clarifies the onset and spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic."

"may reshape the history of pandemic?" What an understatement - the narrative we've been told is the very first case was on November 17, 2019 involving a 55 yr old man in the Hubei province of China.

Study: Coronavirus emerged in Italy as early as Sept. 2019

The novel coronavirus was circulating in Italy since September 2019, a new study by the National Cancer Institute (INT) of the Italian city of Milan finds, three months before it was first reported in China.

www.google.com