Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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"Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period of Italy."


"We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)–specific antibodies in blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 to track the date of onset, frequency, and temporal and geographic variations across the Italian regions."

"SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%), with a cluster of positive cases (>30%) in the second week of February 2020 and the highest number (53.2%) in Lombardy."

"This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified, and clarifies the onset and spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic."


"may reshape the history of pandemic?" What an understatement - the narrative we've been told is the very first case was on November 17, 2019 involving a 55 yr old man in the Hubei province of China.


 
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"Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers."


Largest RCT to date with 6,000 participants.

1.8% of mask group were infected vs 2.1% of control group - .3% difference.

"In this community-based, randomized controlled trial conducted in a setting where mask wearing was uncommon and was not among other recommended public health measures related to COVID-19, a recommendation to wear a surgical mask when outside the home among others did not reduce, at conventional levels of statistical significance, incident SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with no mask recommendation."
 
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"Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers."


Largest RCT to date with 6,000 participants.

1.8% of mask group were infected vs 2.1% of control group - .3% difference. this community-based, randomized controlled trial conducted in a setting where mask wearing was uncommon and was not among other recommended public health measures related to COVID-19, a recommendation to wear a surgical mask when outside the home among others did not reduce, at conventional levels of statistical significance, incident SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with no mask recommendation."
Objective: To assess whether recommending surgical mask use outside the home reduces wearers' risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in a setting where masks were uncommon and not among recommended public health measures.
Although the difference observed was not statistically significant, the 95% CIs are compatible with a 46% reduction to a 23% increase in infection.
Sounds pretty consistent with what has been said about masks since the beginning (small protection for the wearer, intended to protect others, their effects naturally depending on how widespread their use is).
 
Good points. I had been hearing that this study was rejected from a few top tier journals before it got published. It is pretty clear why. There is really no conclusion that you can draw from a study like this, especially if you can't pinpoint where the infections occurred. It deserves to be published, but it has very little scientific impact.
 
"Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period of Italy."


"We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)–specific antibodies in blood samples of 959 asymptomatic individuals enrolled in a prospective lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 to track the date of onset, frequency, and temporal and geographic variations across the Italian regions."

"SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific antibodies were detected in 111 of 959 (11.6%) individuals, starting from September 2019 (14%), with a cluster of positive cases (>30%) in the second week of February 2020 and the highest number (53.2%) in Lombardy."

"This study shows an unexpected very early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified, and clarifies the onset and spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Finding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in asymptomatic people before the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy may reshape the history of pandemic."


"may reshape the history of pandemic?" What an understatement - the narrative we've been told is the very first case was on November 17, 2019 involving a 55 yr old man in the Hubei province of China.


Your point is one I've tried to make to some family members fixated on China as a sole culprit and possible man-made source. Our personal, anecdotal experience is: 1)A friend in the recreation industry (ski, etc), working in Europe at end of January, early February returned to Idaho with similar symptoms. His home town is an international ski destination and was similarly affected by widespread infection closely after. He didn't have any direct contact with other locals that were affected about the same time.
2)Mother in law was in a Mexican tourist area NE of Mexico City in early February at a quasi-religious/spritiual conference with worldwide travelers, particularly European. She became ill the second week of her visit with C19-like symptoms they couldn't diagnose at the time. She had good travel insurance and my wife was able to go there and, when she stabilized; bring her back to Seattle for care. She was hospitalized and required brief intubation, then recovered. She was later found to have the C-19. All of this before the first recognized case in Seattle which was initially reported to be the first US case. That case, traced to China followed these dates. It came from all directions.
I had mentioned on one of the forum strings hearing a report from an Iranian businessman that had returned from Tehran to Whistler, BC mid-march, that the pandemic was causing widespread deaths and overwhelming their health-care and burial capabilities. The timing of his account would have their outbreak also starting somewhere in late January if I recall correctly.
 
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Lol. George was good for a turn of phrase... and the one quoted was in reference to the results of the war as a sitting US Senator in 1891.

As for Lincoln, he was hated worse than the dude we have now.

This Republican president "has continued during the past week to make a fool of himself and to mortify and shame the intelligent people of this great nation. His speeches have demonstrated the fact ... he is no more capable of becoming a statesman, nay, even a moderate one, than the braying ass can become a noble lion. People now marvel how it came to pass that ... should have been selected as the representative man of any party... have made us the laughing stock of the whole world. The European powers will despise us because we have no better material out of which to make a President ..." - The Salem Advocate, 1861

On Lincoln’s Gettysburg address from the Chicago Times;

“The cheek of every American must tingle with shame as he reads the silly flat dishwatery utterances of a man who has to be pointed out to intelligent foreigners as the President of the United States.”

No equivocation? Lolz
We're getting off the topic by a long way but you are arguing against yourself. That people of the time would have negative response to an Administration whose policy affected commercial trade fundamentally would expect criticism from all directions. George was a Confederate legislator throughout the war so he probably harbored some resentment at the outcome as people still do today in the Southern US. The commercial conflict resulting from abolition of slavery resulted in a Civil War which history shows has been the greatest threat to the Union. Lincoln's administration eventually ended slavery at a great cost and those wounds took time to heal. Is he vilified historically today? Perhaps quietly in some places.
Conversely, the dude we're getting rid of in the WH fundamentally endorses the sentiments directly opposing Lincoln's legacy. He is also doing nothing about our greatest current threat except parceling blame in every direction. At the same time embracing Lincoln's greatness as a comparison to his acts.
 
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I dont know it is good to force poeple to get a shot but how could we stop this if not with vaccines? I will get one to stop this madness. I know this is not so easy because lot of poeple cant get one because healthy reason but after vaccines mass availability there should be cancelled all restrictions. Everybody choice if handle virus with vaccine or by themselves.
 
That Italy paper is interesting, but I don't think it is very credible. The fact that it is published in a journal with an impact factor under 2 makes it even more questionable. The peer review was probably minimal. If the finding can't be corroborated independently, it should be ignored.
 
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We're getting off the topic by a long way

Thats what I was thinking when reading this;


Yassss. George was good for a turn of phrase. Unfortunately his quote didn't quite pan out for the Confederacy; Lincoln was rightfully accorded his due as Victor without a rewrite. He did what most historians acknowledge although there are still folks down South that think it's 1864 and they have a shot. They lost. No Equivocation.
 
”Forced Vaccination Law ABANDONED in Denmark After Mass Protests."
This isn’t going to go over well with most posters here.

When I read this the first thing that I think of is “what’s the next thing they’ll force on their population?” Because if this is successful then it’s template to be used again. Scare people into compliance. Boom, there it is.
 
Problem 1, if we are going to listen to the scientists and they tell us at the beginning of the pandemic that if we do everything perfectly (the didn’t define ‘perfect‘ so one must extrapolate what was meant from the immunologists perspective) that we would still lose 200,000 people to the virus then I’m not exactly sure why those participating in this thread with their hair on fire are behaving the way they are wrt blame placing for those that have passed from Covid.
That 200,000 figure was for the total when the pandemic was over. We are almost certainly going to exceed 500,000, and if the vaccine were to be delayed until the middle of next year, which was certainly a very reasonable assumption last winter, the total would probably be more than a million.

Problem 2, Fauci has changed his position on masks.
Yes, scientists change their views when new information becomes available. Unlike most people supporting a particular politician.

Problem 3, “the pandemic was allowed to gain foothold” is nonsense. This Country is not run buy an authoritarian government like the CCP. We were never going to trap covid positive people in their apartment high-rise by welding the doors shut to keep them from infecting others.
There are other ways to reduce the spread.

Largest RCT to date with 6,000 participants.

1.8% of mask group were infected vs 2.1% of control group - .3% difference.
I don't know how many years it will take before people understand the really simple point that masks are used to protect others, not oneself. Any protection of oneself is a bonus.

And that it is really, really difficult to run a controlled study investigating the effect of protecting others. What is not difficult at all is to run simple laboratory experiments demonstrating that masks block droplets and aerosols exhaled by the wearer.

People seem to grasp that burglar alarms will reduce home invasions, even without massive studies showing that burglaries decrease when burglar alarm sales go up. Most people can figure out that if a signal goes off when someone tries to enter your home, you're probably going to be better off than if no signal goes off. And are willing to pay many, many, many times more for that signal than one has to pay for a mask.
 
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There are other ways to reduce the spread.
Thanks for this. When Birx and Fauci were talking about perfection and 200,000 dead they were not referring to reducing... or reduction of spread.

Most understand this is a pandemic and in a pandemic there is no such thing as perfection in response to it. According to our top people in the field the death count was always going to be more than 200,000.


Yes, scientists change their views when new information becomes available. Unlike most people supporting a particular politician.
Well then I guess we can say that Fauci helped let the virus gain a foothold here in the USA. Of the 250,000 dead now how many are his fault?
 
This isn’t going to go over well with most posters here.

When I read this the first thing that I think of is “what’s the next thing they’ll force on their population?” Because if this is successful then it’s template to be used again. Scare people into compliance. Boom, there it is.
I would be surprised if many here would be in favor of forced vaccinations. It may be that some institutions and work places require either vaccination or evidence of immunity should that be confirmable to protect staff for a period until the rate of infection declines acceptably. Would you want the core of strategic military operations, the core of government administration at risk? I don't have an answer but it's a question we'll likely face even without a government required program.
 
But Scott Atlas is the heretic.
Why not both? Redfield is not long for his job either. Fully deserved firing IMO. People may forget, but the spring testing debacle lies squarely at his feet.
And that it is really, really difficult to run a controlled study investigating the effect of protecting others. What is not difficult at all is to run simple laboratory experiments demonstrating that masks block droplets and aerosols exhaled by the wearer.
The other thing is that using animals with housing units separated by mask materials is also not satisfactory to the skeptics because it is artificial. My opinion is that there is no experimental design that will be sufficient to change their opinions.
 
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When I read this the first thing that I think of is “what’s the next thing they’ll force on their population?” Because if this is successful then it’s template to be used again. Scare people into compliance. Boom, there it is.
I know. It's awful. First we were forced to wear clothes--also known as body masks--in public, though no large study has ever demonstrated the health effects of wearing clothes. Then we had to use toilets, instead of crapping and peeing wherever we pleased. Eventually the state became so controlling that we had to drive cars on roads, and stop at signal lights. Children are forced to learn how to read and write, and there are rumors that many are compelled by their parents to eat vegetables when at home. Even before the pandemic, there were all kinds of places where people were not allowed to move freely, e.g., they are barred from walking in the middle of major highways.
 
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So now we are getting around 11% exposure,and a quarter million dead. And as predicted virus spread has intensified w people retreating indoors as fall \ winter temperatures push activities inside.
One thing that is not reported correctly is the acceptance of an alternative reality,alternative facts that were revealed as a new way of thinking.
if people in the US continue to believe that there is no virus,that the virus is under control, there is only a few cases, there is testing for everyone, masks are for sissies or the unpatriotic, we are going to keep watching the stats unfold w rising infections,hospitalization and death..
90% of Americans still have the opportunity to get exposed to the virus,if that changes which set of facts to accept,that is to be determined by the future.
I hope that we only go this far back..it's like time travel in political dog years, were things that were social givens like touching a bit stove, driving w your kid standing on the front seat, blow drying your hair in the bathtub..and now masks,vaccines..
things that seemed so obvious,so beneficial are now the subject of controversy..
When I get gas tomorrow I will not be surprised to see a leaded option.
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gCMzjJjuxQI


I really hope that Donald doesn't turn the knob on the time machine back to pre polio,measles and TB times..
 
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I know. It's awful. First we were forced to wear clothes--also known as body masks--in public, though no large study has ever demonstrated the health effects of wearing clothes. Then we had to use toilets, instead of crapping and peeing wherever we pleased. Eventually the state became so controlling that we had to drive cars on roads, and stop at signal lights. Children are forced to learn how to read and write, and there are rumors that many are compelled by their parents to eat vegetables when at home. Even before the pandemic, there were all kinds of places where people were not allowed to move freely, e.g., they are barred from walking in the middle of major highways.
oh, I know. It’s all the same.

next you’ll tell us business owners... we didn’t really build it.
 
I'm sure there won't be any forced vaccinations. Instead there will soon be a fight over who gets it and who doesn't and I have to say that at least concerning Germany I am surprised that there isn't a larger discussion about it.
They say people in the high risk group first - while saying that's about 40% of the population. So who of those gets it first? I don't see any discussion at all about it. Don't know if there are plans, somewhere, but since it could be happening in one month, I am surprised. Then people who are working in the health system (which I don't get, really, I would definitely vaccinate those first (those that want to, of course, but that should be the large, large majority). Just getting a vaccine for these people will take its time. Next are other system-relevant persons, especially policemen and teachers, I'd say.

When everyone who wants a dosis, has gotten it, the governments won't press for a mandatory vaccination, because, realistically, they are not interested in people's lifes, they are interested in being elected again and not have any uprisings. So when they can point to the possibility of getting vaccinated, they won't have a reason to enforce anything.
 
According to Redfield, masks are in deed "magic tools." In fact, he says they're are more effective than the vaccines:
Well, extreme opinions seem to be the mainstream in the US these days. Everything is politicized. The media likes "clear" stories and soundbites, pitting opposing views, etc. That makes it rather difficult to relay a complex story or stories with caveats. For example, not many people seem to understand how science works. "Fauci once doubted face masks, now he's pro - that's not right!" Seems education needs to be improved - a lot.
 
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