Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Masks work. Candles on your Christmas tree are dangerous. Running w scissors is dangerous, running w scissors holding a baby is even more dangerous, running w that combo while high is even riskier.
governor Dewine, like so many others is trying to solve a public health crisis,not a political point. Giving people a collective public health approach is just common sense,or what used to be called common sense. If a governor tells you not to drive towards a fire,flood or tornado, those warnings used to be welcome news,seen as an act of caring and conscious,compassion.
Suddenly the information is a violation of civil rights,un patriotic.
Any person who can't forego a coffee,beer,Turkey dinner,or wear a mask for 1 holiday season is a selfish,unpatriotic bag of steaming dogschit.
That's based on science.
I don't know if many here ever served aboard ship. We had lecture after lecture after lecture about keeping things clean for the good of all. Not using resources for the good of all..we were also briefed about looking after one another,
In situations where your judgement may be impaired.on one ship we were given a notebook that contained photos of male and female genitals in different states of disease from partaking in local delicacies of infectious flesh. Told flat out,don't do it..I remember getting my second injection early on in our cruise. Not because I got VD, but because one of my shipmates,could not control himself..our shop supervisor had us line up,remove our pants and underwear, a corpsman then handed you a vile, it was chilled penicillin, you were encouraged to rub it,try and warm it,because when it was injected it would be very uncomfortable and painful. They were right,it hurt like f-ck.
The story has a couple of twists, Mr. Drill Everybody was put on restriction and was not allowed to leave the ship when we were in port and enjoying a great liberty call.
The last twist ,we went to the Philippines,we all got off,ate food,drank and I w a couple of guys went diving to see sea life that blew me away. We got back underway and sure enough the usual suspects all had some ailment,causing fever and infection..the next time we pulled in we were all denied liberty. Nobody was allowed to go ashore that was not a senior NCO or officer,the reasoning was that we couldn't look out for one another. Some troubled sailors were " counseled " using some voodoo like techniques, an exorcism of sorts, were their insatiable desire to f up was beaten out of them.
As the cruise continued the dirty among us, was brow-beaten ,shamed into community compliance for the good of all.
Wearing a mask may harm my family,so to be surprised by reaction to that would only surprise a fool.
A quarter million fellow Americans dead and chumps are still debating wearing masks,nationwide!!
Corona Virus task force "doctor" telling people to " rise up " against health mandates. Jan 20th can't come soon enough.
 
1956 deaths reported by Worldometer. This is the highest single day total since the first week of May, when the CFR was much higher.

It's such a helpless feeling, seeing deaths go up, and knowing the inevitability of a further rise for at least the next several weeks, and probably much longer. An Ohio State poll (of America) found that about 40% of people plan to attend family gatherings at Thanksgiving.

It seems that the more dependent we become on technology, the less willing we are to sacrifice anything. I mean, it wasn't all that long ago that if you didn't go home for Thanksgiving or Christmas, all you could do was call and talk on the phone. Now you can have videos where everyone can not only hear you but see you, see your surroundings, see you move around. It's not the same as face-to-face, hugs and kisses, but it's a lot better than nothing. Gloria Estefan even argues that we are more intimate with each other on the internet, because we get an extreme close-up of another person's expressions and gestures that we don't normally have in the flesh. Yet for so many people, that's not enough.

It's getting worse for Gavin Newsom. He claimed the dinner party was outdoors, but pictures by someone at the restaurant show that it was in a room open to the outdoors through sliding glass doors. Apparently the party was making so much noise (or in current terms, spitting out aerosols with such great intensity) that other patrons complained, so the doors were closed. The guests did not appear to be maintaining much distance from each other, and of course you can't wear a mask while you're eating. Plus, two of the guests were officials of the CA Medical Association.

What puzzles me most is not the hypocrisy, which is standard among politicians, but that none of these dinner guests apparently had any fear of contracting C19. If I were some top CA official and had been invited to the party, it wouldn't take a sense of honesty and fair play to keep me from declining--I would flat out be afraid to. Is dinner at a restaurant such a priceless experience that it's worth gambling your health on? I wouldn't accept even a mild case as worth it for dinner out, let alone the possibility of something far worse.


Do as I say, not as I do.
 
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Some third world countries are handling the Covid crisis better than the USA which is pause for thought. Certain state governors should hang their heads in shame. An unmitigated disaster and an embarrassment at the international level. The richest country in the world with a surfeit of hospitals, health experts and highly regarded scientists. This is the best they can do even under the current regime ? Maybe the political system in the USA is simply broken like some of the human vacuums in charge.
 
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1956 deaths reported by Worldometer. This is the highest single day total since the first week of May, when the CFR was much higher.

It's such a helpless feeling, seeing deaths go up, and knowing the inevitability of a further rise for at least the next several weeks, and probably much longer. An Ohio State poll (of America) found that about 40% of people plan to attend family gatherings at Thanksgiving.

It seems that the more dependent we become on technology, the less willing we are to sacrifice anything. I mean, it wasn't all that long ago that if you didn't go home for Thanksgiving or Christmas, all you could do was call and talk on the phone. Now you can have videos where everyone can not only hear you but see you, see your surroundings, see you move around. It's not the same as face-to-face, hugs and kisses, but it's a lot better than nothing. Gloria Estefan even argues that we are more intimate with each other on the internet, because we get an extreme close-up of another person's expressions and gestures that we don't normally have in the flesh. Yet for so many people, that's not enough.
This is very sad and concerning. What I notice looking around the world is that success in fighting the virus is highly dependent on how the local population heeds warnings from health authorities. I never really believed China's success to virtually wipe out new cases after the initial breakout in Wuhan but I do know Chinese people do what they are told by the government.

Looking at the abysmal stats in America I can't my head around why anyone would be thinking of attending family gatherings at Thanksgiving? I'm not American so I don't have any affinity for Thanksgiving but if 60% don't plan to attend family gatherings at Thanksgiving that tells me there is a big problem with attitude and this attitude is a significant factor driving the appalling health stats.
 
I think that the recent news of vaccine progression is great news. I have done a bit of reading on the way the vaccines,first 2 ,are intended to work, astounding technology and we all hope for the best.
both look to require 2 doses by design. Both have said openly that how long into the future,the vaccines will be effective,will be determined...in the future.
I certainly hope,but probably without foundation,that the medical sociologist experts are wrong. Many say that direct personal experience,appears to be a large determinant in behavior change. Some say that the type of media coverage in the United States is a public disservice. So kind of a scared straight approach on grand scale. If you see someone close to you die or suffer then you will believe,you will react. If the news actually showed routine treatment and deaths, from 1 to 100 focal lengths closer and people got an up close view of the viruses effects, the ugliness would be enough to change many minds.
It looks like video and still images may still not be digestible to most of America, don't know if that means we are prudish. It looks like it's more of the same for now, w the fall winter predicted increases becoming reality.
One scary thing that is being lightly chatted about publicly..coordination..the vaccine production and distribution is pretty complicated,and the idea that the federal government is intentionally not doing any work to coordinate the efforts is discouraging. If this is what a warp speed,all hands on deck Covid response has looked like until now,this sudden silence,conspicuous inaction is terrible,and it is following a 10-14 day Covid norm..So everything lags behind..these 10-15 days of nothing is killing Americans, how many more is a wait and see..


 
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This is very sad and concerning. What I notice looking around the world is that success in fighting the virus is highly dependent on how the local population heeds warnings from health authorities. I never really believed China's success to virtually wipe out new cases after the initial breakout in Wuhan but I do know Chinese people do what they are told by the government.

Looking at the abysmal stats in America I can't my head around why anyone would be thinking of attending family gatherings at Thanksgiving? I'm not American so I don't have any affinity for Thanksgiving but if 60% don't plan to attend family gatherings at Thanksgiving that tells me there is a big problem with attitude and this attitude is a significant factor driving the appalling health stats.
The recipe China used is not a mystery. But mass testing, travel restrictions, centralized quarantine, and aggressive contact tracing are just not palatable to many nations.

At most just a fraction of the population of any given state is infected. If you don't work at a hospital, the pandemic is somewhat abstract. So, that allows a mental distancing for people. I am amazed at how normal the country has been over the last few months despite the ongoing outbreaks. I understand the sentiment of continuing to do the normal routines of life, I just vehemently disagree with it given the circumstances. I can see my relatives again after I get a vaccine. It is not my preference, but that is the reality. I think there will be less Thanksgiving gatherings than normal despite what the polls suggest.

More evidence that people who are really sick need drugs that target the immune system and not the virus. Actemra helps resolve inflammation in RA.

View: https://twitter.com/business/status/1329440016368603137
 
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The recipe China used is not a mystery. But mass testing, travel restrictions, centralized quarantine, and aggressive contact tracing are just not palatable to many nations.

At most just a fraction of the population of any given state is infected. If you don't work at a hospital, the pandemic is somewhat abstract. So, that allows a mental distancing for people. I am amazed at how normal the country has been over the last few months despite the ongoing outbreaks. I understand the sentiment of continuing to do the normal routines of life, I just vehemently disagree with it given the circumstances. I can see my relatives again after I get a vaccine. It is not my preference, but that is the reality. I think there will be less Thanksgiving gatherings than normal despite what the polls suggest.

More evidence that people who are really sick need drugs that target the immune system and not the virus. Actemra helps resolve inflammation in RA.

View: https://twitter.com/business/status/1329440016368603137
As I've said (too) many times, C19 has shown us how horrible many people are. I haven't seen my mother in almost nine months, but sh8t f8ckarshat goes to the bars without a mask and then comes to work the next day because he couldn't give a f8ck about anyone but himself.
 
I have never smoked crack,but if I did my imagination says it would look like this:

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WnDP7CS8ki8


Watch about 3 + minutes in, he says that the response coordination is "seamless" ..that is when you know there is a handpicked gallery..
they just fluff past that pesky quarter million people, quarter million people,not numbers dead.
a crime against humanity..truly disgusting and disturbing
shame..shame on you and every American for this type of non leadership
 
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I have never smoked crack,but if I did my imagination says it would look like this:

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WnDP7CS8ki8


Watch about 3 + minutes in, he says that the response coordination is "seamless" ..that is when you know there is a handpicked gallery..
they just fluff past that pesky quarter million people, quarter million people,not numbers dead.
a crime against humanity..truly disgusting and disturbing
shame..shame on you and every American for this type of non leadership
These are truly bad people, not just crooked politicians, horrible humans!
 
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These are truly bad people, not just crooked politicians, horrible humans!
yes, yes yeeeeeeesssssssssss, <furiously hand wringing>.....

Horrible humans would also include some combination of elected leaders relishing in their power-drunk prose routinely trampling ordinary citizens rights guaranteed by this Country’s Constitution while not applying their fascistic standard to them and their families. Whitmer? Newsom? Pelosi?

Yeah dude, normal non-fascistic human beings sit idly by getting financially ruined (as if there’s no risks whatsoever in that), children, particularly disadvantaged children (I mean, not Newsom’s kids) will likely never recover fully from losing 2 years of in-classroom learning while the Cuomo’s of this new globalist grifters cornucopia run wild with power bleeding from their eyes.

No, the horrible humans will have hundreds of millions of 90+% effective vaccine doses within months - not years- of the outbreak with a brilliant understanding of how a public/private can work while simultaneously doing whatever is possible to balance economic needs of people like you and me.

I can say you have nearly perfected the stone throwing at glass houses. I mean, how dare the Federal response actually allow States and localities to make decision? How dare they?

Is the Federal response free from criticism? Nope. Fire away. But at least be honest when you do it.

they just fluff past that pesky quarter million people, quarter million people,not numbers dead.
a crime against humanity..truly disgusting and disturbing
shame..shame on you and every American for this type of non leadership
Oh, I know.

March 30 presser this was said:

Birx said the projections by Dr. Anthony Fauci that U.S. deaths could range from 1.6 million to 2.2 million deaths is a worst case scenario if the country did “nothing” to contain the outbreak, but said even “if we do things almost perfectly,” she still predicts up to 200,000 U.S. deaths.

Almost perfectly, 200,000 deaths.

But, but, but..... Horrible Humans and everything.
 
Chris, there is that feeling,the thing that goes through your body when you visit many government agencies.Like the DMV..you talk w the person working there and you get a feeling from the way they talk, act and carry themselves that what is happening between the two of you really doesn't matter.A depth of apathy, a mood that the government employee just doesn't give a phuck. I have had this experience dozens of times, customs,building permits, taxes,and the infamous waiting at the DMV.
My sense of patriotic duty makes me sick hearing Pence speak. 41 conference calls in @10 months? That's a bunch of work? By who's standard? And numbers are numbers not results. A dunce without a cap, tells a story,a make believe story of attacking and defeating Covid. Complete BS..it didn't happen,it's not happening,and the White House constipation is preventing it from happening until @3-4 pm on January 20th.
I am not an infectious disease specialist, don't have global resume for vaccine distribution, and I am not a TV reality show host, but if I was somehow place in the perilous situation of distribution of a life saving ,economy saving vaccine and other forms of assistance to @335 million,mostly desperate American people,I would consult experts and follow advice based on history and professional guidance.
I would not ask Dr. Laura, Dr. Phil, My Pillow guy,Dr.Oz, Dr Atlas, Joe Atlas ,a world atlas, Mitch McConnell or my daughter or son in law.
Everything I hear from the White House is inaccurate and inexcusable,inadequate.
Pense made the summary, like a fire chief saying that he has pumped, 50,000 gallons of water on a fire that is not out, getting bigger and hotter,was left burning without response for months and most likely will take 500 million gallons of water to extinguish.
To wait months for a official government response and have the press conference void of facts is criminal.
Many people should be tried for crimes against humanity..
The press conference was another example of a public servant,not serving the public and simply not caring enough to do a good job.





Doesn't matter who or when he is checked,he is always lying
 
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I heard this: "10 years of flu will kill more people than Covid-19 has". What?! Comparing 10 years to one year? More: "Car crashes kill more people than Covid-19 does." I knew that wasn't even close to true, but I checked anyway and its between 30,000 & 40,000 thousand per year in the USA, not 300,000+. Maybe they were using the 10 year multiplier again? The icing on the cake was: "We have never counted mail in ballots before so why are we counting them this year?" If this was just one not so intelligent person, it would be sad, but the number of people who think (which is not thinking) this way is frightening!
 
I am not an infectious disease specialist
No you sure aren't.

So believe the scientists... until you don't. People of science? Clear up until you are not.

I don't give a F about what Pence said or didn't say yesterday. Spin is spin and EVERYONE is spinning for reasons we can't discuss here.

Masks work right? And yet we are surging globally (except the Countries who have mastered spin and a few exceptions). So maybe they work kinda.

Lock downs work, right? Except we are doing it again. Bend the curve works, right? Apparently not very well... because , like, here we are.

What if I were to tell you that life expectancy actually went up .08 years to 78.93 in 2020? After dipping slightly in 2017 and 2018, expectancy went up in 2019 and again in 2020. Follow the science.

Speaking of following the science, the vast majority of decedents from COVID had already lived past expectancy and were significantly less than perfectly healthy. The bulk of those that passed were suffering from cardio-vascular disease or diabetes or multiple issues such as chronic lung disease immunosuppression (cancer ), chronic kidney disease, chronic liver disease (alcoholism), end-stage liver disease, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and obesity.

The point is we know who is at great risk and who is not.
Let's no pretend otherwise. And while COVID deaths are heartbreaking the question remains: Taking EVERYTHING into consideration, what is the best way forward?

I'll submit to you this; You don't know. Fauci doesn't know. Gottlieb doesn't know. Outgoing Admin doesn't know. Incoming Admin doesn't know.

You get the point.
 
We also know that the best way forward is to not hold press conferences in enclosed spaces unmasked. Today we learn that one of the attendees was Covid-19 positive (Andrew Guiliani). I can quibble with certain aspects of the main plans, but the CDC and task force guidelines are defensible paths to take. My main issue is that there was precious little effort to take what was written on paper and implement it or communicate it or emulate it.

Yesterday, there were congressional hearings about HCQ. What a complete waste of time giving oxygen to the wrong issues at the wrong times.

View: https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1329646433860001795
 
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My main issue is that there was precious little effort to take what was written on paper and implement it or communicate it or emulate it.
Sure. Hindsight will be amazingly clear when it's all over.

The World Health Organization has updated its ongoing guidance on Covid-19 medications to advise against using the antiviral drug remdesivir to treat hospitalized patients, no matter how severe their illness may be.

Turns out even if it was written on paper it wasn't necessarily correct. Those who pushed Remdesivir are charlatans. I mean, at least we can say that now.
 
The ROI on Remdesivir probably is not worth the price tag under most circumstances. But to infer that it does not work and equate it to snake oil like HCQ is disproven by the data. Given the increasing scarcity of hospital beds nationwide, shortening time to recovery is not something to be scoffed at. The question becomes how much is that marginal benefit worth?

METHODS
We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of intravenous remdesivir in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either remdesivir (200 mg loading dose on day 1, followed by 100 mg daily for up to 9 additional days) or placebo for up to 10 days. The primary outcome was the time to recovery, defined by either discharge from the hospital or hospitalization for infection-control purposes only.

RESULTS
A total of 1062 patients underwent randomization (with 541 assigned to remdesivir and 521 to placebo). Those who received remdesivir had a median recovery time of 10 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 9 to 11), as compared with 15 days (95% CI, 13 to 18) among those who received placebo (rate ratio for recovery, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.49; P<0.001, by a log-rank test). In an analysis that used a proportional-odds model with an eight-category ordinal scale, the patients who received remdesivir were found to be more likely than those who received placebo to have clinical improvement at day 15 (odds ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.9, after adjustment for actual disease severity). The Kaplan–Meier estimates of mortality were 6.7% with remdesivir and 11.9% with placebo by day 15 and 11.4% with remdesivir and 15.2% with placebo by day 29 (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.52 to 1.03). Serious adverse events were reported in 131 of the 532 patients who received remdesivir (24.6%) and in 163 of the 516 patients who received placebo (31.6%).

CONCLUSIONS
Our data show that remdesivir was superior to placebo in shortening the time to recovery in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection.

 
Reactions: jmdirt and Koronin
Interesting new report from the CDC about masks.

Summary
What is already known about this this topic?

Wearing face masks in public spaces reduces the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

What is added by this report?

The governor of Kansas issued an executive order requiring wearing masks in public spaces, effective July 3, 2020, which was subject to county authority to opt out. After July 3, COVID-19 incidence decreased in 24 counties with mask mandates but continued to increase in 81 counties without mask mandates.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Countywide mask mandates appear to have contributed to the mitigation of COVID-19 transmission in mandated counties. Community-level mitigation strategies emphasizing use of masks, physical distancing, staying at home when ill, and enhanced hygiene practices can help reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

 
Reactions: jmdirt
We also know that the best way forward is to not hold press conferences in enclosed spaces unmasked. Today we learn that one of the attendees was Covid-19 positive (Andrew Guiliani). I can quibble with certain aspects of the main plans, but the CDC and task force guidelines are defensible paths to take. My main issue is that there was precious little effort to take what was written on paper and implement it or communicate it or emulate it.

Yesterday, there were congressional hearings about HCQ. What a complete waste of time giving oxygen to the wrong issues at the wrong times.

View: https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1329646433860001795
Guiliani's son attended the press sideshow. He tested positive today. The impact on the other attendees probably won't be disclosed as that embarrassment would trickle upstream.

For Chris: some people may appear to you and others as "totalitarian" in an attempt to minimize death count. Others are avoiding their elected responsibility and then, like many,; equivocate the outcome to some other out-of scale occurrence to minimize their perceived malfeasance. EQUIVOCATE. It generally exposes a complete lack of competence that is bordering on criminal. Pence can hold the bible close to him as the evangelical part of the Republican voter base is estimated at 19%. They vote en-bloc and believe anything they're told, it would seem. Maybe, just maybe his career will survive his flirtation with Trump's greatness but history is going to judge alot of people on both sides. History probably won't equivocate.
 
Reactions: jmdirt
But to infer that it does not work and equate it to snake oil like HCQ is disproven by the data.
Tell that to the WHO.

Abstract
Clinical question What is the role of drug interventions in the treatment of patients with covid-19?
New recommendation The latest version of this WHO living guidance focuses on remdesivir, following the 15 October 2020 preprint publication of results from the WHO SOLIDARITY trial. It contains a weak or conditional recommendation against the use of remdesivir in hospitalised patients with covid-19
Recommendations The first version on this living guidance focused on corticosteroids. The strong recommendation for systemic corticosteroids in patients with severe and critical covid-19, and a weak or conditional recommendation against systemic corticosteroids in patients with non-severe covid-19 are unchanged.
How this guideline was created WHO has partnered with the non-profit Magic Evidence Ecosystem Foundation (MAGIC) for methodologic support, to develop and disseminate living guidance for covid-19 drug treatments, based on a living systematic review and network analysis. An international standing Guideline Development Group (GDG) of content experts, clinicians, patients, and methodologists produced recommendations following standards for trustworthy guideline development using the GRADE approach. No competing interests were identified for any panel member.
Understanding the new recommendation When moving from evidence to the conditional recommendation against the use of remdesivir in patients with covid-19, the panel emphasised the evidence suggesting no important effect on mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, time to clinical improvement, and other patient-important outcomes. Considering the low or very low certainty evidence for all outcomes, the panel interpreted the evidence as not proving that remdesivir is ineffective; rather, there is no evidence based on currently available data that it does improve patient-important outcomes. The panel placed low value on small and uncertain benefits in the presence of the remaining possibility of important harms. In addition, the panel considered contextual factors such as resources, feasibility, acceptability, and equity for countries and health care systems.
Updates This is a living guideline. It replaces an earlier version published on 4 September 2020 and the BMJ Rapid Recommendations on remdesivir published on 2 July 2020, and the previous version can be found as a data supplement. Future updates are planned to cover hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir-rotinavir. New recommendations will be published as updates to this guideline.
Readers note This version is update 1 of the living guideline (BMJ 2020;370:m3379). When citing this article, please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.


https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3379

So which is it???

Is it possible there is data in conflict..... you know, like there was in the early HCQ days? Is it possible the more we find out about Remdesivir and it's use the more we will find out about it's efficacy in the real world (good or bad)? And why aren't you assigning the worst motives for those panelists at WHO that have reached a different conclusion/recommendation than yours.... Or do you just save all of that vitriol for the current oval office occupier?
 
some people may appear to you and others as "totalitarian" in an attempt to minimize death count
I'll go ahead and assume you are meaning death count from COVID. By going totalitarian in attempting to minimize COVID death count the death count, despair count, financial ruin count, isolation count, education disparity count all skyrocket. Many of the negative counts listed in the previous sentence will outlast - by decades -the Corona Virus.

But so what, right?

History probably won't equivocate.
An interesting quote regarding history;

“In all revolutions the vanquished are the ones who are guilty of treason, even by the historians, for history is written by the victors and framed according to the prejudices and bias existing on their side." - George Graham Vest
 

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