Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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The news just gets grim and grimmer for the U.S.

A new model forecasts about 440,000 deaths by March 1.

Daily new cases may rise to 300,000 by the end of the year. That would be perhaps 1.5 million people infected, more than 10 million per week.

El Paso in November is like NYC in March, with 1 in every 30 citizens with an active case, and mobile refrigerated trucks needed to pick up the bodies.
I wonder how long it will be before field hospitals are put in use again in many places. It seems the hospitals are becoming overwhelmed even though treatments have improved.
 
Saturday for me will be very very telling. In Northern San Diego county,\ Riverside border there are groups, some w newly elected officials staging protests,all have some component of statements about intentionally mass gathering without masks. Gyms, restaurants,bars are all saying up front that they do not plan to comply with outdoor operating mandates,instead are saying we are staying open and if you want us closed you will need to use force and the police.
I have listened to a few detailed explanations from business owners and the basics of most, another semi shut down will put us out of business,so there is nothing left to lose.
Mitch McConnell and the federal government say that nobody should be expecting any type of federal response any time soon,and if aid does come it will be @20% of what was proposed pre election.
There are many national reports of PPE shortages..



 
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The news just gets grim and grimmer for the U.S.

A new model forecasts about 440,000 deaths by March 1.

Daily new cases may rise to 300,000 by the end of the year. That would be perhaps 1.5 million people infected, more than 10 million per week.

El Paso in November is like NYC in March, with 1 in every 30 citizens with an active case, and mobile refrigerated trucks needed to pick up the bodies.
The path we are on is just not sustainable. We did not do enough when we had the wind at our backs during summer. And now the seasonality component is against us, so things that worked before are just not as effective. And an R that shifts from 1.0 to 1.2 (hypothetical #s) is a big problem. We need to reset and bear down, but I don't see the will yet to do so.
I wonder how long it will be before field hospitals are put in use again in many places. It seems the hospitals are becoming overwhelmed even though treatments have improved.
Wisconsin set up a field hospital in their fairgrounds and are starting to see patients. I could see the one built at the hospital here from my work window earlier this spring. Then they disassembled it after it never was needed. I keep waiting for it to be put back up. No matter what, this winter will be a nightmare for the health care professionals.

View: https://twitter.com/edyong209/status/1327234910822821893
 
The path we are on is just not sustainable. We did not do enough when we had the wind at our backs during summer. And now the seasonality component is against us, so things that worked before are just not as effective. And an R that shifts from 1.0 to 1.2 (hypothetical #s) is a big problem. We need to reset and bear down, but I don't see the will yet to do so.

Wisconsin set up a field hospital in their fairgrounds and are starting to see patients. I could see the one built at the hospital here from my work window earlier this spring. Then they disassembled it after it never was needed. I keep waiting for it to be put back up. No matter what, this winter will be a nightmare for the health care professionals.

View: https://twitter.com/edyong209/status/1327234910822821893
This is just flat wrong in the United States. Extensive interviews with regular citizens,they have heard about the everything, and the two paths that lead here, many don't believe that there is a Covid-19 pandemic emergency,another portion don't care.
Most health care professionals are looking at this completely wrong, they are witnessing first hand,personally processing the events and rationally thinking,nobody could know about such horrible things and not care,not act. They are wrong,people do know,don't care and are doing nothing to help.
Boeing is set to get approval for resumption of flights of an airplane that crashed 2 times,and in the 2 accidents,killed less than 650 people.
Covid deaths are the equivalent of 3-6 major airliner crashes..every day and the federal government is playing golf, and tweeting,on vacation.
Firing people from the CDC,and Health and Human Services for publicly saying the crisis is dire
 
Given that RFK Jr is their chairman, I am going to go out on a limb and say that childrenshealthdefense is an Anti-vaxxer website and probably should not be taken seriously on the topic of vaccines. Just an FYI.
C'mon now; the article quoted the New York Times, one of the most liberal newspapers out there. And Dr. Goodman, Professor of Medicine & Infectious diseases at Georgetown, is not an anti-vaxxer.
 
Read this paper, and tell me with a straight face that seat belts save lives?

What does that have to do with exploding cases & hospitalizations currently in Colorado where a mask mandate has been in effect since July? Can we stick to the specific issue here and not change the subject to seatbelts?

Look at the graph again and tell me that a mask mandate has been effective in stopping the number of infections?

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1326304539381694464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1326505690442051590%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.cyclingnews.com%2Fthreads%2Fcoronavirus-how-dangerous-a-threat.35693%2Fpage-172


Anyone with common sense would have to conclude that the mask mandate here was a complete failure. And because of the exploding cases & hospitalizations the dept of health officials & politicians of are in a mass panic right now. Strict level-3 "Orange" restrictions and a metro-wide curfew are in place with the likelihood of a stay-at-home lockdown order for most counties.

Isn't the whole idea of a mask mandate to stop the spread and reduce infections so something like this doesn't happen?

 
C'mon now; the article quoted the New York Times, one of the most liberal newspapers out there. And Dr. Goodman, Professor of Medicine & Infectious diseases at Georgetown, is not an anti-vaxxer.
This is what they do, they cut and paste comments out of context to highlight the danger of vaccines. Safety will be evaluated once the 2 month period is complete and the application to the FDA is made. Considering that the vaccine has been given to thousands of people already, I doubt anything safety related will prevent the approval of this vaccine. Suggesting that safety is still in question is a dubious notion.

You never did address my point about the mask mandate. According to the chart, it appeared to knock back the first wave. What you should be asking is why it is not as effective now? The flaw in your argument is that we don't know what CO would look like without the mandate. The Dakotas serve as a reasonable control group for no mask mandates and that would suggest that CO would be worse off without a mask mandate because the Dakotas are almost as bad as it gets. I am really curious what you want the authorities to do. Just ride off the cliff and let hospitals fail? That is the trajectory. Europe looks like they have broken their surge. JT has talked about Belgium and their responses. Israel clearly locked down. We need to do something ASAP to limit people breathing on each other.

View: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1325611932540231680
 
Urgh, I just don't get it. Stay at home. Throwing Halloween parties and no masks being worn? Why go to a restaurant don't these people understand what has been happening? Surely you would have to live under a rock to be unaware of the risks in America. Same with college football players eating together.

Buy home delivery. Wear masks when appropriate. Work from home if possible. I read these snippets and wonder what planet some people are on. It really isn't that hard to put the brakes on transmission but at least make some effort.

The US recorded 161,000 new Covid cases on November 12. Over 1,000 deaths per day. It ain't going to improve if people are not more responsible.
I think that I already said this multiple times, but peoples' attitude toward C19 has me very disappointed in humanity in general. So many people just aren't willing to do their part.
 
The populations of these island nations require tourism $$$ to survive, but at what point do we agree to stop ferrying COVID around in cruise ships? For this voyage, they required two PCR tests before embarkation. Masks were not mandated on board, but they kept the passengers away from native populations as much as possible. Still didn't work.
Several travel writers are on board the ship, invited by the company to chronicle the voyage.
SMH.....Just incredible hubris.
View: https://twitter.com/MiamiHerald/status/1327016866787844096
 
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Seeing some of the counts from states like Ohio and Illinois and it is clear the numbers today are going be a new record. Looking toward the weekend for some escapism and already 5 college football games featuring Top 25 teams have been postponed or cancelled. And that doesn't include 2 more in the Pac-12. Cal has had both their games cancelled and are left with just four more on the schedule. As I said earlier this fall, it would be much easier to start the season than to finish the season. I suppose that they soldier on in the near term, but I am starting to get 2020 NCAA tourney vibes about what is going on out there.
 
bad human.
In that same meeting, another nurse started to talk about having to deal with dying people every day, and Trump interrupted him to pass gift pens around to the group. Simply doesn't have the attention span to listen to something that bores him.

In his first press conference since the election, Trump said there would be no lockdown. But Biden has essentially made the same promise, so he will be under immense pressure when he takes office.

Meanwhile, the latest daily total is now 175,000. That is two new positives every second! The July peak in cases is beginning to look like a very small bump in the road. Or in cycling terms, a Cat 4, while we're heading for an HC.
 
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In that same meeting, another nurse started to talk about having to deal with dying people every day, and Trump interrupted him to pass gift pens around to the group. Simply doesn't have the attention span to listen to something that bores him.

In his first press conference since the election, Trump said there would be no lockdown. But Biden has essentially made the same promise, so he will be under immense pressure when he takes office.

Meanwhile, the latest daily total is now 175,000. The July peak in cases is beginning to look like a very small bump in the road. Or in cycling terms, a Cat 4, while we're heading for an HC.
Would lockdowns work across the board in the USA at the moment ? I have my doubts because too many people it seems would ignore it. In Australia people were being fined for flouting the rules but it seems in the USA even acknowledging the rules of a lockdown would be too much for a proportion of the population . For some their individuality is more important than potential death or the threat of serious illness and even putting their own families at risk which is mind boggling.. When the lockdowns finish, you still need targeted testing and quality tracing but it can be managed with the right amount of resources and expertise. Testing waste water is also useful in tracking the local outbreaks because the water system can be mapped.
 
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How bad is the situation in ND? The governor says that hospital staff who have tested positive can treat C19 patients if they (the staff) show no symptoms.

Would lockdowns work across the board in the USA at the moment ?
A total lockdown, like that of last April, no way. Many people would flat-out refuse to obey. If the police were called to enforce behavior, some police would refuse to do so. Some of the people who refused to go along would arm themselves, and if attempts at enforcement continued, there would probably be violence in the streets.

Members of Biden's team keep emphasizing that it's not all-or-none, that different areas can be targeted differently, but however this is handled, an already wounded economy is going to take another big hit. And there is going to be great resistance to that.

At this point, I'm fervently hoping that all the infected and recovered people develop long-lasting immunity. If they do, a very large fraction of the country won't need a vaccine, at least not as soon or as urgently as those who haven't been infected. We could be talking about 50 million people just in the period until Biden takes over--as it appears Trump isn't going to do much that isn't being done or not being done now. Maybe enough people will take matters into their own hands, lock themselves down to some extent, but a very large number are happy to continue as they are. And there won't be a major or quick change when Biden does become President. What change there is I think will just be the result of an increasingly large number of recovered people who will reduce the spread of the virus.

As the spike continues, two competing tendencies are at play. On the one hand, the more people who are infected, the more people there are to spread the virus. The chances of an uninfected person's encountering someone who is infectious rise. That's why we're seeing this huge spike, when almost every day a new record is set. On the other hand, as more people get infected, and recover, there will be fewer people for the virus to infect (assuming reinfection isn't common). It's a slow and ugly way to reduce the spread, but it will be in play.
 
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185,000 cases and about 1400 deaths. Let's assume that deaths lag cases by about three weeks. Three weeks ago, there were about 80,000 cases, so the case mortality rate is roughly 1.75%. As a check on that, we can go back to the last two weeks of September, when the number of daily cases was fairly constant at about 42,300. Beginning three weeks later, the number of daily deaths was fairly constant for the next two weeks, at 760/day, or 1.80%. That also is consistent with an infection mortality rate of about 0.35%, assuming about five times as many infections as cases.

Apply 1.75% to 185,000 cases, and we have about 3250 deaths. That is the expected number of people who will die in about three weeks, give or take, from just the new cases today. Because of lags in reporting on weekends, the 185,000 cases does not necessarily represent the average number of cases per day that are occurring right now. Over the past week, the average number of cases has been about 143,000 per day. That is a minimum estimate, though, which assumes that the case rate has peaked, and will not rise further.

Even using that figure, and a 1.75% CFR, we should expect 2500 deaths per day beginning in three weeks, and continuing as long as the current case rate doesn't fall. At that rate, there will be about 115,000 deaths beginning three weeks from now and till Inauguration Day. Assuming just 1500 deaths per day for the next three weeks, which is very likely an underestimate, there will be about 145,000 additional deaths, bringing the total close to 400,000, by the time Biden takes office.

Unless there are massive changes in social behavior that occur very soon, I don't see how we can avoid these numbers. Frankly, the estimate of 440,000 deaths by the end of February looks low to me, unless some social changes are factored in. There is an estimate of more than 500,000 deaths by the end of February, if people do essentially nothing. Other estimates project 300,000 cases/day by the end of the year, which would result in more than 5000 deaths/day. The CFR is much lower than it used to be, reflecting younger people getting infected, better medical treatments for those most at risk, and just testing a larger proportion of those infected. But I don't see any current trends that are likely to drive that rate much lower.
 
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Would lockdowns work across the board in the USA at the moment ? I have my doubts because too many people it seems would ignore it. In Australia people were being fined for flouting the rules but it seems in the USA even acknowledging the rules of a lockdown would be too much for a proportion of the population . For some their individualoity is more important than potential death or the threat of serious illness and even putting their own families at risk which is mind boggling.. When the lockdowns finish, you still need targeted testing and quality tracing but it can be managed with the right amount of resources and expertise. Testing waste water is also useful in tracking the local outbreaks because the water system can be mapped.
Even in Australia the severity of the lockdowns varied from state to state depending on case numbers, conservatism of CHO or the Government - So any lockdown in the USA would have to be targeted.
 
I have been desiring to do a 'Wonderlance' for a while now, but unfortunately conditions in this covid world forbid it.

However, it seems that from November 23, this excellence may be possible.

Melbourne is opening up again in more ways than one :cool:
 
You never did address my point about the mask mandate. According to the chart, it appeared to knock back the first wave. What you should be asking is why it is not as effective now? The flaw in your argument is that we don't know what CO would look like without the mandate. I am really curious what you want the authorities to do. Just ride off the cliff and let hospitals fail?
Exactly...why isn't it effective now? On the 2nd extension on Sept 13, cases were flat. However, shortly thereafter the upward trend initiated and by the time of the third extension on Oct 11, cases were exploding and are continuing to do so. So, from an observational standpoint, masks seemed to have been effective in the very short term during the tail end of summer but now appear ineffective deep into the fall months.

And how bad would the situation be here without a mask mandate? Well...according to dept of health experts things are as bad as it can get presently. They're all in state of hysteria like I've never seen before. Of course, the case positively rate is the highest ever (which could have been the result of the push for increased testing that starting in the early fall - at about the same time cases started increasing on the graph). Hospitalizations have exceeded the highest number back in the spring. But deaths are significantly down from the highs back in the spring (88.5% of all deaths are age 60 & above).

And what the authorities have done is quite dramatic already: 10:00 pm curfew, businesses, gyms, churches, etc., 25% capacity or 25 people (whichever is fewer), most schools going virtual, no fans at any sporting events (including the Broncos), a no socialization recommendation with anyone outside of your household, and a demand to celebrate Thanksgiving with only household members or self-quaratine starting now. These are pretty strict mitigation factors just shy of a full lockdown.

There are several alternative care centers in the metro that were set up last spring and were never used. The authorities can activate those units for the overflow and augment staff. They'll have to improvise and deal with it. This virus isn't going anywhere and we're going to have to live it.

To reiterate, those are pretty strict mitigation orders that, IMO, go too far and hurt businesses in particular. All this govenor has done is criticize & condemn the Colorado citizens for not doing enough to stop the spread. It's been none stop denunciation that we're socialization too much with none-household members, participating in large gatherings at personal residences, unecessarily leaving your home, and so forth. The constant criticism is uncalled for and the hallmark of a Leftist governor enamored with power & control.

Dakotas serve as a reasonable control group for no mask mandates and that would suggest that CO would be worse off without a mask mandate because the Dakotas are almost as bad as it gets.
Other states and regions are getting bad also. This is the U.S. where some governors chose to value personal freedoms and rights over lockdowns that do nothing but destroy economies, kill people caught up in the collateral damage and esentially psychologically enslave the citizens. The "cure" simply becomes worst than the disease itself. Noem, a Libertarian, isn't going to risk the damage done by lockdowns:

"If Joe Biden enacts mask mandates, lockdowns, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem won't enforce them."


"The office of Gov. Kristi Noem said in a statement to the Argus Leader Friday that the first-term governor, who's risen to stardom in the Republican party for her hands-off approach to managing the pandemic, has no intention of using state resources to enforce any federal COVID-19 orders."

"Noem reiterated her position on lockdowns Thursday on social media when she said they don't effectively stop the spread of COVID-19 but have negative effects on businesses and the overall economy."


"We already know that lockdowns don't stop the spread of the virus. However, they destroy small businesses and jobs, and they make it difficult for families to put food on the table," she wrote."

"It's a good day for freedom. Joe Biden realizes that the president doesn't have the authority to institute a mask mandate," said Ian Fury, communications specialist for Noem. "For that matter, neither does Governor Noem, which is why she has provided her citizens with the full scope of the science and trusted them to make the best decisions for themselves and their loved-ones."
 
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