Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Cookster15]

Sorry to interrupt discussion on the outgoing POUS but any comments on the below? Not sure if this has been covered up thread but the potential problems with PCR test has been confirmed by WHO. A concern?

Covid-19: Mass testing is inaccurate and gives false sense of security, minister admits

I live in an area in Sydney where lockdown has just been officially put in place and won't know before Wednesday if I can even travel out of my area - Christmas is on Friday.

Technically I cannot travel outside of my local government area except for good reasons for at least three days. Australian states have now closed borders to anyone from greater Sydney metropolitan area.

Knowing that the state of NSW successfully recovered from a cruise ship issue back in March and the state of NSW has according to what I have read world's best practice contact tracing this is nothing short of a disgrace. State governments are praying on public misinformation to prop up their popularity. . There is a lot of paranoia going on.

 

[Merckx index]

Sorry to interrupt discussion on the outgoing POUS but any comments on the below? Not sure if this has been covered up thread but the potential problems with PCR test has been confirmed by WHO. A concern?

The statement may have been referring to the fact that when you test a large population of mostly negative people, the few false positives result in a very large fraction of the total positives. So the fraction of true positives will be greatly overestimated. This has been discussed in cycling threads, where this was a problem with a bubble of isolated athletes. Very few tested positive under these circumstances, and most who did were likely to be false positives. A second test was needed to increase the confidence that a positive was genuine.

 

[djpbaltimore]

That article seems more concerned with the rapid test than the pcr test. Both have accuracy issues, but the rapid tests do miss more infected people than the pcr tests. If you act like a negative test gives you free reign to do whatever, than that can be a problem. That false sense of security was clearly was an issue for the white house outbreaks and the big ten football outbreaks.

 

[movingtarget]

What do we know about the fast-spreading Covid variant in UK?

What can scientists tell us about the new mutation of Sars-CoV-2 that is circulating in south-east England?

www.theguardian.com

 

[jmdirt]

You conveniently left out that William Bryan, the DHS official Trump brought in to support his notion of using UV to kill the virus, specifically also mentioned chemicals such as alcohol and bleach.

Trump Muses About Light as Remedy, but Also Disinfectant, Which Is Dangerous (Published 2020)

At a briefing, the president promoted unproven treatments and asked Dr. Deborah Birx if she had heard of the success of sunlight as a tool against viruses.

www.nytimes.com

That makes it pretty clear that when Trump used the word disinfectant, he was referring to bleach, or some other chemical, and not UV light. I was wrong about one thing: it was you, not Trump, who has been conflating the two. Trump "clarified" his use of the word inject, which he did mean to refer to a chemical like bleach, when it was clear that he had said something stupid. That's also why he later said he was being sarcastic. If he had actually been talking only about Pimentel's research with UV, and the Healight that a company has tried to promote based on it, there would have been no need to say he was being sarcastic. There is nothing wrong with touting an unproven technology as a possible future benefit. There is no evidence the Healight works, and it could make a patient's condition worse, by killing healthy cells. But it's certainly reasonable to explore the notion. There is nothing to explore when talking about injecting a chemical like bleach.

Plus, who jokes about a pandemic?

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I was wrong about one thing: it was you, not Trump, who has been conflating the two. Trump "clarified" his use of the word inject, which he did mean to refer to a chemical like bleach, when it was clear that he had said something stupid.

Just watch it for yourself. You are going to believe what you want to believe but there is video.

View: https://youtu.be/zicGxU5MfwE


Should he have used more precise terms? Sure. So weird, for the first time in American history we have a President who occasionally speaks in-artfully.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Probably so.

Probably not.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7194064/

 

[djpbaltimore]

I wonder why the Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology would publish/ solicit a perspective article from a scientist at the Photomedicine Research Laboratory to endorse that idea. Boggles the mind. Opinion pieces from interested parties doesn't really sway me at this stage, especially since we know that this hasn't really gone anywhere since this was published. But if they can drum up more grant funding for the idea, more power to them.

The evidence shows that violet/blue (400–470 nm) light is antimicrobial against numerous bacteria, and that it accounts for Niels Ryberg Finsen's Nobel-winning treatment of tuberculosis.

Great news if COVID was anything like a bacteria.

The ubiquity of inexpensive light emitting lasers and light emitting diodes (LEDs), makes it relatively easy to develop safe low-cost light-based devices with the potential to reduce infections, sanitize equipment, hospital facilities, emergency care vehicles, homes, and the general environment as pilot studies have shown.

True, but not what we are talking about. And even that is dated, written before we knew that fomites and surfaces were less important for COVID-19 transmission than people breathing on each other. What we are talking about is a device that can get light into the lungs and kill the virus. It should be noted that when COVID-19 is infecting lung cells it is effectively mRNA. How are you going to selectively target the viral RNA from host RNA with light? That presupposes that there is a device that can do that, which AFAIK, there is not, which is why the Cedars-Sinai folk were bringing in a collaborating biotech to make one. As noted by others, a rectal probe is probably not going to cut it.

I guess that light can effectively target free virus in between infection cycles, but people in the hospital generally have copious amounts of antibody that already does that, which is why in vitro models are not really representative. For those patients, their issue is really not the virus at that stage either. What is killing them is their own immune response to the virus, which is why immuno-modulators like dexamethasome are effective at that stage. Also why the comparison to Flu in the paper misses the point. A lot of people who recovered from Spanish flu, died from secondary bacterial infections. But again, I agree with this.

The pandemic calls for rapid mobilization of every potential clinical tool, including phototherapy

We have the resources to buy a lot of lottery tickets, even ones that are probably junk science, or the most generous assumption: years away from being practical to use.

My 2c is that ideas that have been forgotten over time like the author posits, it is because they really don't work. JMO.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

We have the resources to buy a lot of lottery tickets, even ones that are probably junk science, or the most generous assumption: years away from being practical to use.

Internally, maybe. But suppose for a moment something along the lines of healight could be perfected for upper raspatory viral & bacterial infections. That likely would be a game-changer for the next pandemic as an effective therapy could save millions of lives while vaccines are being developed. Not unlike the polio vaccine, this stuff takes time. But I guess if it's not ready today then we should not even discuss it in terms of possibilities. Is that your position?

And even that is dated, written before we knew that fomites and surfaces were less important for COVID-19 transmission than people breathing on each other.

What if I were to tell you UV light might be involved as a benefit here too? I think you'd dismiss it because of who brought this idea to your lexicon, not because of its merit or lack thereof.

Researchers have found a possible breakthrough in how to manage COVID-19, as well as future viruses. It involves using polymer and oligomer materials activated with UV light in order to kill microbes on surfaces.

The main finding of their research, highlighted in the paper, "Highly Effective Inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 by Conjugated Polymers and Oligomers," published this week in the journal ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces, involves the ability of the combination of certain polymers and oligomers, when combined with UV light, to almost completely kill the coronavirus.

What is different about these polymer and oligomer materials is that when activated with UV light, they provide a coating that is shown to be fast acting and highly effective, reducing the concentration of the virus by five orders of magnitude, Chi said.

And this science can easily be applied into consumer, commercial and healthcare products, such as wipes, sprays, clothing, paint, personal protective equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers, and really almost any surface.
"When incorporated into N95 masks, this material works well against the virus," Chi said. "In addition to trapping the virus in a mask, this would make for better PPE and prolong its life."
Another unique advantage of this material is that unlike traditional disinfectant products, it is shown to not wash away with water and leaves no toxic residue as a result of the photodegradation process, Chi said.

He said their research has found that adding the material into wipes would add only pennies per wipe. Additionally, the material could be added into masks and other personal protective equipment, changing the game for businesses such as gyms, airlines, cruise ships, groceries, health care facilities, schools and many more industries. In addition to coronavirus, these products could also help eliminate infections by the common cold, seasonal flu and other viral and bacterial infections that plague millions of people annually, causing loss of work and school time.
"There is a limitless market for this," he said.
He added that the current pandemic is likely not the last such public health crisis we will see, so even after a vaccine for coronavirus is available, such products could be useful in combatting a wide variety of viruses and bacteria, including the flu or common cold.

"We're not just thinking about COVID but other pathogens and any viral agents," Whitten said. "We want to be ready for the next pandemic."


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201209115207.htm

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Plus, who jokes about a pandemic?

If one can't laugh at the ridiculous double standards then one is in for some tough sledding.

 

[djpbaltimore]

If you think internal light is one for the future, it is a great time to invest on the ground floor of this publicly traded company.

Healight (endotracheal light catheter) - Aytu BioPharma

aytubio.com

It should be noted that I was also accused of rejecting HCQ for non-science related reasons. I get why people who are not lab professionals would be attracted to the concept of both, all I am pointing out is that there are legit reasons to be skeptical if you look at this in more granular detail with a background in the sciences. They can prove me wrong and I will gladly see something new that can help people, but.... I am not holding my breath.

External use of UV light is not really controversial at all. When we work in a sterile biosafety cabinet (aka 'the hood'), we turn the UV light on when not in use to keep the interior sterile.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

If you think internal light is one for the future, it is a great time to invest on the ground floor of this publicly traded company.

It may well be. My idle cash is here: Olvimulogene Nanivacirepvec

Perhaps we're not too far away from cancer treatment therapies that eliminate most of the deaths from various forms of cancer. Not unlike healight, time will tell.

 

[jmdirt]

I can't wait to see the infomercial: "TRUMP RUMP Germ Eradicator UV Stick"

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I can't wait to see the infomercial: "TRUMP RUMP Germ Eradicator UV Stick"

Plus, who jokes about a pandemic?

You do.

 

[Oldermanish]

Just watch it for yourself. You are going to believe what you want to believe but there is video.

View: https://youtu.be/zicGxU5MfwE


Should he have used more precise terms? Sure. So weird, for the first time in American history we have a President who occasionally speaks in-artfully.

He has made a habit of speaking falsehoods and half-truths in that manner. That allows his staff to backtrack or label the media response as "fake news" by characterizing the statements as jokes, misinterpretations or......as alternative facts. It's a tactic for chaos that is specifically directed by his backers. Steve Bannon has reveled in the successful cover it provides while other noteworthy policy changes occur and are pushed out of the limelight.

 

[Oldermanish]

You do.

I get that Dirt's joke is about Trump. Trump jokes about the "pandemic" that is a media creation to defeat him. He's said that multiple times. Still, he takes credit for the Pfizer vaccine that could help stop the "fake news pandemic". Reality is that Biontech and Pfizer developed on their own, didn't take Trump's Warp Speed money. They did agree to sell doses to the US at cost. Warp Speed bought inventory; the labs created the vaccines. Credit should go where it belongs as most pharma initiatives started well before Trump got it started.
Still; he won't take the vaccine or wear a mask or encourage anyone to do it.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

He has made a habit of speaking falsehoods and half-truths in that manner. That allows his staff to backtrack or label the media response as "fake news" by characterizing the statements as jokes, misinterpretations or......as alternative facts. It's a tactic for chaos that is specifically directed by his backers. Steve Bannon has reveled in the successful cover it provides while other noteworthy policy changes occur and are pushed out of the limelight.

If you want to read in meanings that suit your perceptions then you and everyone else are certainly capable of doing that.

If you listened to what he said it's not that hard to understand what he's talking about. Mantra of "attack, attack and keep attacking" is not hard to understand either.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Still; he won't take the vaccine or wear a mask or encourage anyone to do it.

That would the explain the administration's $250 million Building Vaccine Confidence campaign then.

 

[djpbaltimore]

It may well be. My idle cash is here: Olvimulogene Nanivacirepvec

Perhaps we not too far away from cancer treatment therapies that eliminate most of the deaths from various forms of cancer. Not unlike healight, time will tell.

This is a good point. A lot of the cancer immuno-therapies that have come to the fore the last decade were scoffed at by many as perpetual failures in the latter half of the 20th century. Lots of money to be made in the field, so people kept at it. Eventually, technology advanced to make some of the more difficult techniques doable. See checkpoint inhibitors or CAR T cells. Oncolytic viruses have been around forever too, but never been made workable on a broad scale. mRNA vaccines were total failures... until they weren't. Things do change in Science. Maybe technology catches up to Healight too. That is one reason I like seeing lots of lottery ticket projects funded during COVID even if individually they seem far-fetched. That is why I am hedging. It is probably junk, but I could be wrong!

 

[jmdirt]

I get that Dirt's joke is about Trump. Trump jokes about the "pandemic" that is a media creation to defeat him. He's said that multiple times. Still, he takes credit for the Pfizer vaccine that could help stop the "fake news pandemic". Reality is that Biontech and Pfizer developed on their own, didn't take Trump's Warp Speed money. They did agree to sell doses to the US at cost. Warp Speed bought inventory; the labs created the vaccines. Credit should go where it belongs as most pharma initiatives started well before Trump got it started.
Still; he won't take the vaccine or wear a mask or encourage anyone to do it.

My dig is more about dt followers than dj himself.

 

[Merckx index]

Just watch it for yourself. You are going to believe what you want to believe but there is video.

Chris, the clip simply confirms word for word the published version of what Trump said, which you posted above, and which was also in the NYT piece that I linked to. Trump was definitely referring to chemicals when he said disinfectants. He used the latter word exactly as Bryan did, and as I noted before, the term injection is further confirmation. Most people, and especially non-scientists, do not refer to UV light as a disinfectant, and they certainly don't refer to it in terms of injecting it.

i understand that you are extremely supportive of Trump's policies, including what he did or didn't do re the virus. Make those arguments as you will. But here, you're just trying to defend the indefensible, and IMO, you destroy the credibility you do have when arguing about other things. You simply can't admit it when Trump says or does something really dumb. You're going to great lengths to avoid acknowledging that.

What if I were to tell you UV light might be involved as a benefit here too? I think you'd dismiss it because of who brought this idea to your lexicon, not because of its merit or lack thereof.

Interesting research, but again, it's about sterilizing surfaces. There's nothing in what you posted about in vivo applications.

External use of UV light is not really controversial at all.

Of course not. It's been used to sterilize microbiology/molecular biology labs since before I began doing research, decades ago. Whenever you came into a lab at night, the first thing you would see was the soft blue glow of lights on in hoods where experiments were going on.

I also discussed, some time ago upthread, S. Korea's use of UV light to sterilize bus stops.

Perhaps we're not too far away from cancer treatment therapies that eliminate most of the deaths from various forms of cancer. Not unlike healight, time will tell.

If Trump has done anything positive, maybe it's pushing you, and some other supporters of his, to find promising research that shows that UV light may have important applications in medicine. I could be wrong, but I doubt that you would have made the effort to seek out this literature if you hadn't been driven by the urge to show that Trump did not say something dumb. He did, but that doesn't mean that UV light is useless, or that Trump didn't help call attention to the possibility. I certainly give him credit for that. It's a shame that this got lost in the uproar of injecting bleach, but that's on him. What you call inartful was not simply wrong, but even if it hadn't been, Trump's inability to speak logically and clearly would have made it hard for most people to understand the lesson.

Hoo boy, an American college student has been sentenced to four months in jail in the Cayman Islands, for breaking a mandatory 14 day quarantine early. She said she tested negative twice, then discarded her tracking device,and left quarantine after two days. Now her family is pleading with U.S. government to intervene:

Family of U.S. teen jailed in Cayman Islands asks Trump for help

Skylar Mack was sentenced to prison in the Cayman Islands for breaking Covid isolation protocols. Her family has appealed to the U.S. government for help.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Koronin]

Update on my husband's health issues. Definitely not a Covid issue. He finally got a CT scan and they told him that he has lung cancer (at that moment it's only in his left lung).

 

[Merckx index]

Update on my husband's health issues. Definitely not a Covid issue. He finally got a CT scan and they told him that he has lung cancer (at that moment it's only in his left lung).

Good grief, what horrifying news, and right before Christmas. I'm pretty sure from other of your posts I've seen that your husband is relatively young, far too young for this. Does he smoke? Could it be related to work place exposure?

If it's stage 1, though, and only in the lung, and the common form, the survival rate could be fairly high. I'm sure your doctor is informing you about all this.

You said before that he tested positive. Does he have, or did he have, any symptoms of COVID?

 

[Oldermanish]

If you want to read in meanings that suit your perceptions then you and everyone else are certainly capable of doing that.

If you listened to what he said it's not that hard to understand what he's talking about. Mantra of "attack, attack and keep attacking" is not hard to understand either.

And you certainly don't believe every word he says. Kayleigh McIninny is not convincing trying to re-explain the meaning of his words. He was ignorant on that particular issue and had to recreate some explanation. The main point being: he talks sh*t about major issues in a manner suiting his political narrative on topics of major consequence. When caught; his minions and sycophants either claim to "not heard President Trumps comment" (how many times does that come out of Mitch McConnell's mouth or Lindsay Graham's?) rather than fumbling for another ridiculous explanation.
None of this helps the situation nor reinforces the credibility of Covid measures taken other than the same loyal folks chumming his reelection fund scam. I really hope those that have grown to believe in him devote as much energy to clawing back their money and dignity from him when they figure it out.

 

[Koronin]

Good grief, what horrifying news, and right before Christmas. I'm pretty sure from other of your posts I've seen that your husband is relatively young, far too young for this. Does he smoke? Could it be related to work place exposure?

If it's stage 1, though, and only in the lung, and the common form, the survival rate could be fairly high. I'm sure your doctor is informing you about all this.

You said before that he tested positive. Does he have, or did he have, any symptoms of COVID?

Yeah, it's not news I was expecting or wanting. He's in his early/mid 50's. He used to smoke (quit about 15 years ago). I do wonder if is related to work place exposure.

It sounds like it's just in the one lung, but really hoping at worst it's stage 2 of the common form as it seems the survival rate is good as long as it's common form and not past stage 2.

Yeah, he tested positive in October for Covid, but the symptoms he had was bad coughing, which we thought was more bronchitis and some loss of energy. The weird part is that he's actually started feeling a bit better and isn't coughing as much the past week or so. The above symptoms are also symptoms of lung cancer. He was diagnosed with pneumonia back in Sept by the local hospital when they did an X-ray here. He's obviously had this issue for a few months before that. (another reason I'm really hoping this is the common form.)