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Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

Page 218 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
On a side note, after the second CT for my husband they have backed off the lung cancer thought as the mass in his lungs has decreased as have the lymph nodes. They do have a comment that they want a biopsy on both the mass and on a lymph node that is still has a high swell rate. This is good news.

Very good news. I was going to ask you why they hadn't done a biopsy.
 
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Very good news. I was going to ask you why they hadn't done a biopsy.

Yes, we're both happy with the news. There is a note that he may have early stage lymphoma (which is possible as Rheumatoid Arthritis is known to cause it). However, if that's the case it's still a better diagnosis. My husband thinks it's possible they haven't done the biopsy due to it being the holidays, although glad the doctor at the hospital basically says they need to do one. I'm wondering if it's an insurance thing as to why there hasn't been a biopsy yet.
 
Following up on my earlier post. Here is a great thread for a serology analysis on one of the key mutations in the SA variant. This is not vaccination-induced antibodies, but rather antibodies induced by prior infection. But this is the kind of data that will need to be repeated with sera from vaccinated people to really tell how much of an effect the mutant will have on vaccination. At this point, vaccines would be expected to provide some protection, but that protection may not be as good as for other strains based on this data. It is also a mutation that has arisen in multiple strains, so barricading SA is not an option. Incidentally, this is also part of the rationale for minimizing infection levels prior to vaccination. The more virus out there, the increased likelihood there is for the virus to mutate into an escape variant and be selected for in a Darwinian sense. The SA variant has a mutation that seems to make it more transmissible and a separate mutation that helps it evade the immune system a bit. Really thankful that it doesn't mutate like Flu. But given enough time, an immune escape variant is going to emerge.

View: https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1346442049663340544

I am lost quite a bit as english is not my native language. Do I get it right that we need vaccinate asap because we play for time? Ok maybe western world will vaccinate pretty quick but I fear virus will be present in third world countries in large scale and some mutation will beat vaccine imunity and put western world into lockdown again :confused:
 
This is a very long article exploring the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab in Wuhan. The author cites, but does not really discuss, the seminal Nature Med paper that concluded that the virus was not intentionally designed in a lab. He instead emphasizes the interest of some researchers in designing a virus capable of causing a pandemic, not as an agent of bio-terrorism or warfare, but so that we would be prepared to deal with such a virus if/when it emerged naturally. He finds the existence of a level-4 lab in Wuhan too much of a coincidence, and notes that the bat virus with highest sequence homology to SARS-CoV-2 was brought to Wuhan years earlier from a mine shaft, where it was found after several workers shoveling bat guano died from breathing the dust.

While it's a good account of the research being carried out on infectious viruses, and the conflicts over whether the potential benefits in understanding how to treat a new viral design outweigh the risks of just such a lab accident, this is bound to stoke the conspiracy theorists, which I can already see in the first comments. The author's scenario might be described as a hybrid between the standard intentionally designed virus, and the purely accidental theory. The author believes the virus was intentionally designed, just not for nefarious purposes, and since it's proposed to have been designed from a naturally-occurring virus, one of the arguments made in the Nature Med paper--that intentional design would have made use of a different viral backbone--is avoided. However, another argument vs. intentional design--that the spike protein would have been designed differently--would seem to apply to this scenario, as does the furin cleavage site.

The sad thing is that we may very well never know the origins of the virus, as we have not yet found it, or a very close relative that could have easily mutated to SARS-C0V-2, in any animal species. 8472 may jump in here indignantly, but China really hasn't helped by so far delaying if not refusing admission of an investigative team. If China wants to know the origin of the virus, they're sure hiding their intentions from the rest of us.

But in the climate of gonzo laboratory experimentation, at a time when all sorts of tweaked variants and amped-up substitutions were being tested on cell cultures and in the lungs of humanized mice and other experimental animals, isn’t it possible that somebody in Wuhan took the virus that had been isolated from human samples, or the RaTG13 bat virus sequence, or both (or other viruses from that same mine shaft that Shi Zhengli has recently mentioned in passing), and used them to create a challenge disease for vaccine research — a chopped-and-channeled version of RaTG13 or the miners’ virus that included elements that would make it thrive and even rampage in people? And then what if, during an experiment one afternoon, this new, virulent, human-infecting, furin-ready virus got out?

 
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I knew the WHO story would bring out the lab theory again. It is a compelling narrative, but compelling does not equal likely. The author lacks a little bit of know how. A mouse bite is not going to penetrate gloves. A needle stick can happen but how does that bloodborne inoculation lead to respiratory transmission? Neither is a dropped flask going to cause an infection. It is plausible enough from a lay perspective, but is pretty unlikely if you have ever worked in a bsl 2+ environment. I rarely juggle the flasks of deadly virus without wearing ppe. It is more movie than reality IMO. I seriously doubt anybody knows how this happened. Nothing has changed since April on this front AFAIK.
I am lost quite a bit as english is not my native language. Do I get it right that we need vaccinate asap because we play for time? Ok maybe western world will vaccinate pretty quick but I fear virus will be present in third world countries in large scale and some mutation will beat vaccine imunity and put western world into lockdown again :confused:
Yes, you got it. The quicker we hit herd immunity, the less chance the virus has to experiment with new traits under selective pressure.
 
Yes, you got it. The quicker we hit herd immunity, the less chance the virus has to experiment with new traits under selective pressure.

how do you see the chances to reach herd immunity with the current kind of vaccines, though? Personally I struggle a bit to understand how it's supposed to work out, if vaccinated people (even if less so) really turn out to still be infectious - wouldn't that mean that basically everyone would be likely to catch the virus sooner or later, once restrictions are lifted ("just" don't get sick for the moment, if vaccinated), potentially also leading to problems with further transformations later on?
 
how do you see the chances to reach herd immunity with the current kind of vaccines, though? Personally I struggle a bit to understand how it's supposed to work out, if vaccinated people (even if less so) really turn out to still be infectious - wouldn't that mean that basically everyone would be likely to catch the virus sooner or later, once restrictions are lifted ("just" don't get sick for the moment, if vaccinated), potentially also leading to problems with further transformations later on?
Yes, I think you are right. The path to herd immunity is a narrow one and would require the vaccines be very effective against transmission. And that is far from being proven. I do think there is a benefit to vaccination beyond that goal.

To me it seems most likely that COVID will become an endemic virus with a seasonal transmission cycle featuring greatly reduced mortality once it all gets sorted out. That doesn't sound ideal, but I think it will be be enough to get most people back to a 'normal' life by fall.

Hmmm. Gottleib suggesting that only 90-100m people will want to be vaccinated in the USA. Interesting comments on a number of issues.

View: https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1346823832980631554
 
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Yes, I think you are right. The path to herd immunity is a narrow one and would require the vaccines be very effective against transmission. And that is far from being proven. I do think there is a benefit to vaccination beyond that goal.

yeah, I definitely do see the benefits as well, I was just curious if there's anything I missed which may help to wipe out the virus more or less completely. Hopefully transmission can be reduced in a somewhat significant way at least
 
This should be really infuriating to people. I understand why a vaccine that only has the weakest approval can't be made mandatory, but people really need to step up and do the right thing if they are working with the elderly.

View: https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1346874708751482880

I've posted about the hurdles toward vaccination including the 'safety concerns' by people like Tucker Carlson. So, it is just not surprising to me that Alex Berenson is now railing against the mRNA vaccines due to the adverse effects. He was one of the prominent leaders of the anti- mask, anti-lockdown herd immunity gang. During the summer he was pro-vaxx and predicted people like me who disagreed with him about those things would be anti-vaxx because he thought the vaccine would be the way toward re-opening. Since then, I guess he realized that his followers are not as pro-vaccine as he thought they were and had to backtrack to keep his follower count. That is the main reason that I think 60% is not going to happen. The natural inclination of the mask and lockdown protesters are to also be against vaccination. Public opinion polls are great but the last step of putting needle into arm is going to be tough for even people with good intentions. We see this happen every winter with the Flu vaccine. Just not enough people see the value of it.
 
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Just not enough people see the value of it.

I think this is completely different than the flu vaccine. And btw, you watch what happens in future years with flu vacc coverage. I can guess that a great many people in the USA had no idea how many people died from flu every year so I'd expect those number to increase too.

As soon as people see that those vaccinated are not dropping dead in great numbers the resistance will fade. People want their lives back.
 
Not sure if this is good news. It's great that there's an in home, non-invasive test. Not great that it's $110 each and provides yet another revenue stream to Jeff Bezos.

WASHINGTON — Amazon and DxTerity Diagnostics announced a partnership last month to sell at-home coronavirus tests online.
The self-administered, non-invasive saliva kits were given the Food and Drug Administration's emergency use authorization at the beginning of December.
The tests from the Los Angeles-based company are currently available in single packs that cost $110 and in a 10-pack for $1,000 on Amazon. DxTerity said the price includes pre-paid overnight return shipment and testing in the company’s CLIA licensed and accredited laboratory.
 
Yet another example of where being PC is literally deadly. Trump's fault.

US rollout disaster leaves more than 70 percent of COVID-19 vaccines unused



While Surgeon General Jerome Adams admitted that the biggest vaccination effort in US history was “a little bit messy,” he blamed the glacial pace of inoculations on states not moving fast enough.
“Many folks — and I’ve been to states all across the country — feel beholden to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices guidelines to vaccinate everyone in group 1A before they move to 1B and beyond,” Adams said Tuesday on the “Today” show, referring to health care and nursing home workers and front-line essential workers who are first in line for the shots.
Adams advised states and governors to “move quickly to other priority groups” if the demand just isn’t met — noting that in Ohio, nursing home workers have refused to get the vaccine.
“What I want people to know these are guidelines, we’ve been telling these states since September we need to make sure we’re prioritizing getting everyone vaccinated as quickly as possible, while trying to adhere to the guidelines,” he said.

https://nypost.com/2021/01/05/more-than-70-percent-of-covid-19-vaccines-unused-in-us-rollout/
 
Yes, Trump's fault. A leader should lead during a national crisis. He is the opposite of a coordinator. A vaccine effort in disarray is just one result. The other one is on full display at the moment, in all its glory.

Of course. The States and their (lack of) leadership have nothing to do with anything.

Again, dude in the oval has to play every position on the field at the same time. Gonna be interesting to see how the new guy effective at doing that given the expectations now laid out.
 
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I think this is completely different than the flu vaccine. And btw, you watch what happens in future years with flu vacc coverage. I can guess that a great many people in the USA had no idea how many people died from flu every year so I'd expect those number to increase too.

As soon as people see that those vaccinated are not dropping dead in great numbers the resistance will fade. People want their lives back.
The pressure to take flu shots this year finally got me to vaccinate. My son was direct: "if you're concerned about Covid, get the flu shot. Your grandsons definitely get sick from that."
 
He should make the vaccines available or stick the needle in the arms? Or both? Package the vaccine in the bottle? Load the vaccines on the pallets? Drive the truck & fly the plane?
Find out why the vaccines are not getting into arms, or task someone to do so. Find the bottlenecks and improve the delivery. Use the DPA to make more of the raw materials to make more vaccine which is a reason why the manufacturing has also been below expectations.
 
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One positive outcome of the current riots in D.C. is that members of Congress who have previously been against wearing masks are now embracing them--gas masks, that is. Hope their freedom isn't infringed too much. But riots tend to infringe on some people's freedom.

i could in fact cite some studies that gas masks may be causing more problems than they address:


Stop infringing our freedoms by mandating gas masks inside the Capitol!
 

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