Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[postmanhat]

A week after announcing they were doing nothing, the UK government has changed tact considerably in the last 48 hours.

Schools were closed yesterday to all but the children of key workers yesterday

Finally, this evening, all pubs, clubs, gyms, theatres, restaurants and cafes were told to close by midnight. Previously Boris Johnstone had advised people to avoid them, which left them in limbo as they could not claim insurance through forced closure.

People who lose their jobs will be paid 80% of their salary.

Also said yesterday that there is 'zero prospect' of the type of lockdown seen in Italy and Spain. But given that the peak isn't expected for two months, that can probably be ignored

 

[aphronesis]

Air raid sirens being tested in the city now

 

[movingtarget]

Italy having a horrible time of it, Spain is also worsening. New Guinea reports it's first case, more infections reported in Malaysia . Iran is recording a death at least every six minutes. Australia has closed it's borders to all non residents. Cruise ships finding it harder to find a port that will allow them entry. Many Australian cruise ship tourists could only disembark in Venice as most are Italian ports are closed. they then had to find a flight home which isn't easy at the moment and some are reporting ticket prices of $10,000.00. some tourists caught short have had to use GoFundMe for help. The Australian government ran some charter flights out of China, it remains to be seen if it will happen again with other countries.

 

[Ranagazoo]

Meanwhile in China most businesses, restuarants, shops etc all reopening and life's getting back to normal, and the only cases are those returning to the country.

I'm starting to think Western society is simply unable to listen to their governments and do what they're told. It's looking more and more like this will only be over once a vaccine is ready.

 

[hrotha]

It's all well and good to say going for a walk is harmless and that it should be allowed. But then everybody might go out for a "walk". It's impossible to enforce any kind of lockdown that way.
Similarly, it's all well and good to say you can't infect anyone or be infected by riding alone. But then you might crash and put further strain on an already overstretched healthcare system. Perhaps even an ICU.

Just suck it up and work out at home.

 

[Koronin]

Well it seems for the most part in the US areas that are in "stay at home" aren't exactly being enforced except to ensure non essential businesses aren't open.

 

[Koronin]

Maybe a tiny bit of good news?

Coronavirus update: Two elderly patients who tested positive at Seattle nursing home 'have recovered'

Two patients from a nursing home at the epicentre of the US’s coronavirus crisis appear to have made a recovery after having initially been tested positive for the disease.In a rare piece of good news on a day when the global number of deaths from Covid-19 passed 11,000 and the total number of...

www.yahoo.com

On the other hand, updated US numbers 18,000+ cases 237 deaths.

 

[Koronin]

Some hopeful news for treatment. Appears clinical trial results in France and the US are seeing similar things.

French lab offers ‘millions of doses’ of Covid-19 drug

A French medical laboratory has said it is ready to give the French authorities “millions of doses” of an anti-malaria medication that early tests have suggested may help cure Covid-19.

www.connexionfrance.com

 

[Koronin]

Someone here was talking about antibody testing:

UK ‘very close to breakthrough coronavirus immunity test’

The coronavirus immunity test has been hailed as a 'game-changer'.

www.yahoo.com

 

[nevele neves]

In Argentina for the past 2 weeks - So far looks like I will stay here for the next month.

This looks promising or not?

https://www.en24.news/a/2020/03/hyd...-in-marseille-after-a-first-limited-test.html

 

[Koronin]

In Argentina for the past 2 weeks - So far looks like I will stay here for the next month.

This looks promising or not?

https://www.en24.news/a/2020/03/hyd...-in-marseille-after-a-first-limited-test.html

Check the article I posted French lab offers millions of doses. Same drug being talked about. It's also being tested in the US. It seems although not verified it's starting to be used more wide spread in the US simply because it's an approved malaria drug so hospitals can get it.

To answer your question, between the two articles and articles about the US test it does sound at least helpful.

 

[Merckx index]

As MI has noted upthread, it is not ideal to diagnose new infections, because it is a lagging indicator as the graph above shows. It complements the existing tests, but would not replace them.

Actually, though, another very useful aspect of this study is that it demonstrates that we can estimate what % of positives have formed Abs. E.g., suppose we tested a random sample of 100,000 people, 1000 of whom were actually positive. Assuming the sample is random, and the positives are also random, we can estimate what % of the positives were exposed to the virus at any given time, and hence the probability of having developed Abs. It might be, say, that 3/4, or 750, of the positives would be expected to have made Abs. So the actual number of Ab positives would be multiplied by 1000/750 = 1.33 to get the real number of positives.

Like any correction, this step adds some uncertainty to the conclusion, but the important point is that population statistics allow us to reduce this uncertainty to almost any arbitrary value, by increasing the sample size. Using limited random RNA testing, we can also go in the other direction, i.e., comparing the real number of positives with the number of Ab positives. This allows us to test our assumptions of how many actual positives have Abs.

Some hopeful news for treatment. Appears clinical trial results in France and the US are seeing similar things.

One of the very helpful aspects of this discovery is chloroquinone is a widely used drug, so safety tests aren't necessary, as they would be for a new, heretofore-never-used drug. That saves a lot of time.

There are also cell culture models, some of them derive from previous work on SARS and MERS,
.Models like these make it possible to screen a very large number of drugs for their ability to inhibit viral action, with promising candidate than going to an animal model, then finally human trials.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/03/11/2002589117

 

[RedheadDane]

It's all well and good to say going for a walk is harmless and that it should be allowed. But then everybody might go out for a "walk". It's impossible to enforce any kind of lockdown that way.
Similarly, it's all well and good to say you can't infect anyone or be infected by riding alone. But then you might crash and put further strain on an already overstretched healthcare system. Perhaps even an ICU.

Just suck it up and work out at home.

It's not about working out, though. It's about getting some fresh air. But, yeah, listen to your local authorities, and if they tell you to stay at home, you stay at home!
Luckily, there are ways to get fresh air without having to go to the most crowded places.

 

[aphronesis]

Wait: suddenly because there’s a health epidemic the (already low) odds of a major crash get multiplied? On empty roads?

 

[BlueRoads]

They should also tell people to not do any do-it-yourself work in the house, to not climb ladders and to keep from cooking and baking.
Seriously, maybe there are spots in the world that are so crowded that you have to be cuddling when everyone goes out for a walk, but certainly not at the places where I lived. Yes, sometimes you may be on the same small path and come closer than 2 meters, but first of all the virus seems to be transmitted in close contact, not by pure bypassing outside, and secondly there is more to health than not getting a virus. Wasn't the huge trend forest-bathing?

 

[hrotha]

It's not about working out, though. It's about getting some fresh air. But, yeah, listen to your local authorities, and if they tell you to stay at home, you stay at home!
Luckily, there are ways to get fresh air without having to go to the most crowded places.

Well, most people have balconies or at least windows. If you absolutely need fresh air for an actual medical condition, then fine, but otherwise, yeah, suck it up. You'll be fine.

Wait: suddenly because there’s a health epidemic the (already low) odds of a major crash get multiplied? On empty roads?

No? Who said anything remotely like that?
The already low odds are probably lower now, but they do exist. It's a non-essential activity, and this is an emergency.

BlueRoads:
Cooking is an essential activity. Risks associated to that are unavoidable.
Cycling is a bourgeois pastime. You can do without it.
If you're climbing ladders for leisure, don't do that.

 

[aphronesis]

You said that. Those were the parameters your post established.

Cycle racing is a bourgeois pastime. Cyclng for it’s sake is no more bourgeois than running. I’ll do the latter if it will assuage your liberal conscience.

 

[hrotha]

You said that. Those were the parameters your post established.

I only said "you might crash". Everything else, all this about the odds, is due to your poor reading comprehension or your overactive imagination.

 

[aphronesis]

Please. You wrote what you wrote. Own it.

 

[movingtarget]

Some beaches closed in Sydney because of over crowding and people getting too close and not adhering to the government guidelines re personal space. Italy asking for another 300 volunteer doctors. Talk in Australia about releasing elderly prisoners and minimum security inmates.

 

[RedheadDane]

If you absolutely need fresh air for an actual medical condition, then fine, but otherwise, yeah, suck it up. You'll be fine.

Technically, everybody needs fresh air. Some of us are… just very bad at remembering to get it.
But, yeah… if you must, just sit in your open window, but without falling out. That would be… bad!

Cycling is a bourgeois pastime. You can do without it.

For some people it's basic transport. If your local grocery store isn't quite within walking distance, you might need to ride a bike.

 

[PeterB]

Air raid sirens being tested in the city now

As far as I know, they must be tested every now and then. I usually hear them at least once a year and in various cities. Don't make a big deal of it.

 

[aphronesis]

30 years in NY and I’ve never heard them. Thanks for your comfort though.

Sarcasm aside: it’s an indicator of a useless bureaucracy

 

[jmdirt]

Another installment of "All About Me":

A week of anxiety has worn me out. I need to watch/listen/read less about what's going on, but I still want to be informed. I am disappointed in other people and that only adds to my fatigue. Ramble, ramble...

 

[aphronesis]

I’m glad you’re well. Watch out for the neo-nazis