Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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The way they frame it is not that there is a pause, but rather that countries like Germany have 'banned' its use. These things don't have to be accurate to be effective. The best misinformation is cloaked in a veneer of truth. When the preservative thimerosal was removed from vaccines out of an abundance of caution due to the widespread anti-vax claim that it was causing autism, the response from the anti-vaxxers was, "we were right, they removed it because it was dangerous." No study ever supported a role for thimerosal in autism, but bad faith merchants can spin any measures to fit their arguments. And then they seamlessly moved the goalposts to suggest that the 'extreme' # of vaccines given to children was causing autism. Almost no way to even test a hypothesis like that. Whatever happens, it will be even harder to get people to take the AZ vaccine in those EU countries once they resume the shots. And it will boost hesitancy even more in the countries without a pause. It really is a mess.

And there are a lot of people running with these kinds of stories in the grift media who have huge contributions from herbal therapies and homeopathy merchants. So, to them the vaccines are a competitor. 'Health' is taking their miracle pills that doctors are afraid to tell people about because they work so well they would be put out of business. /s
I think that you are correct about "natural therapy" people being on the wrong side of this. As you might notice from my posts here and elsewhere, I am all for keeping our bodies healthy through natural means: ie: I try to get all of my nutrition from natural food sources instead of supplements. I fully believe that natural things make us healthier and therefore more able to fight pathogens, but no part of me also thinks that there is a herb that will kill a virus. I guess I have a holistic approach in that I do as much naturally as I can, and then add vaccine (ie) as needed.
 
I think that you are correct about "natural therapy" people being on the wrong side of this. As you might notice from my posts here and elsewhere, I am all for keeping our bodies healthy through natural means: ie: I try to get all of my nutrition from natural food sources instead of supplements. I fully believe that natural things make us healthier and therefore more able to fight pathogens, but no part of me also thinks that there is a herb that will kill a virus. I guess I have a holistic approach in that I do as much naturally as I can, and then add vaccine (ie) as needed.
And a holistic approach would embrace herd immunity as an end which could occur without incident to many.
The sick part is that the most active anti-vaxxers in the US are also charlatans peddling tonics to their faithful followers and wrapping the entire delivery up in the gauze of "patriotism" and "Christianity". The same sort of people that are comfortable defining who fits into those categories as well.
 
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And the silence is deafening from the macho former Charlatan in Chief. He, that got vaccinated as he skulked out the back door after campaigning on his heroic recovery from C19. Are there other national leaders, other than Bolsonaro that are not speaking up for treatments?
 
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I've read about a single dose regime and improved results with 2 doses; the second a month later. Hopefully if two are needed the decisions get made in time to manage some efficacy. Stressful enough to freak out those that have taken it.
The clinical trial for AZ had a lot of variation in second dose timing. Delaying actually had some positive effect. Discussed it some back in December.

Looking at their data, the antibody titer was about 3 fold greater in the group that waited more than 12 weeks than those who got it on schedule. You can see an increase in the group with a vaccine interval of 9-11 weeks compared to <6 weeks too, so the data is internally consistent. Based on what they submitted, this strategy wasn't really intentional, just how the second dosing went due to 'logistical constraints'. About 60% of the vaccine group got it in <6 weeks with about a quarter of that number in the other groups. The control was not even consistent in the study as some got saline while others got the meningococcal vaccine. That design is not how you draw it up on the chalkboard, but they seem to have learned something useful by being imprecise. Really a bit of a mess that only survives because we are deep in the ####.

It isn't clear to me where the efficacy number came about either.
The countries that are stopping the vaccine really need to be transparent about their decision. From the outside, the reasons don't sound legit. If they have a better reason, they need to speak up. A key regulator does not seem to see a problem.

The EMA said that the concern is related to blood clots with “unusual features” including low levels of platelets, which are involved in creating clots. Still both the EMA and AstraZeneca emphasized that the number of blood clot-related events, which could include clots in the legs and also more severe outcomes like heart attacks or strokes, seem not to be higher than the rate seen in the general population.
 
Concerning Germany: At this point there are several problems.
First is: We do not have anything near to enough vaccine. That was clear from the beginning. So we have a strict priority list. First group: people in homes for the elderly and people working in clinics. (So one of my grandmothers and my sister got vaccinated early.) Fine. Next are people over 80 in general. They can make appointments. Partly this age group has now been vaccinated. For all of these it's mostly Biontech/Pfizer that's used.

AstraZeneca is only allowed for people under 65. But there are few people which belong into the first priority groups and are under 65. Basically, only people working in elderly care. Some of those didn't want to get vaccinated, since they are often young and female, there were rumors about infetility after vaccination and they are rarely high risk. But in the end, that wasn't a big number of cases. The main problem is the combination of not enough vaccines and bad, or let's say, inflexible organization. (Note, it's done differently in each of our 16 states, and some are a bit faster than others.)
There are several things standing in the way, for instance, obviously, if you don't live in a special home or belong to a clinic (than they come around) the best way to get an appointment is over the internet - but not every over 80 year old here is able to deal with that. (I know my grandparents have never been in the internet. It's unimaginable for some, but very real for others.) So, in some cases children and friends can help out, but in some, well, I guess, they are left behind a bit.

Anyway - when someone doesn't show up to an appointment in most cities there is no clear rule how to deal with that. Sometimes there's an "emergency waiting list", but only for the doses which have already been opened and would otherwise been thrown away. (Sometimes they are given to police and people like that.)

Now in the past weeks teachers of smaller children have been allowed to get vaccinated as well in some of the states. But again, they are usually younger... Mixture of not enough vaccination, vaccination doubts, appointments not being free for them in the beginning (because it was a change of priorities, they are not in the first priority groups originally, but some states wanted to do this to justify school openings when the teachers didn't want that). And so on... It's a lot of bureaucracy and very annoying. But even if everything went smoothly... well, between 70 and 85% of what we got we used, so it's not like there is a huge amount of vaccine that isn't used.

Another aspect: At first, because we were eager to get everyone vaccinated two times like it's supposed to be done, but we weren't sure the supply was coming smoothly (and rightly so), half of the doses were stored. That has changed now. It was also to avoid creating mutants, but that doesn't even make sense in a global world.

The main thought about our program is: there's not enough vaccine, give it first to the most vulnerable. That way the hospitals also will be emptier. But those who feel especially exposed, like teachers, call to be in the first groups.
(It has to be said that most teachers in Germany are officers who cannot be fired and will get their money throughout, but who cannot decline to work, either).

There are some who desperately wait for a vaccination but aren't allowed to get it. And a few who are allowed to, but don't want to. I think if Sputnik gets allowed, a low percentage will be vaccinated with it.

All of this is supposed to change soon, there's talk that in the summer we will have so much vaccine it's going to be hard to get it into people. For now we remain in a constant semi-lockdown. (What will we do with more aggressive mutants that cannot be reached by our vaccines? No idea.)
 
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We've now seen very many examples of countries that "did well" in Spring 2020, do badly now. To me, it shows that much of what happened early last year was down to luck or bad luck, not specifically good policy. A hyper-connected country like Belgium suffered a full blow, while very peripheral countries like Estonia hardly had import, and thus could keep cases to almost zero with measures that weren't different from - for example - Belgium. But that doesn't last. The virus can build up in the population under favorable conditions and then seemingly suddenly 'explode' - which it did in Italy 2020 for instance. Combine this with a long winter season, and there you have an explanation for rising cases in Norway, Finland, Estonia etc. for the past weeks. Plus, this bloody British variant is 40-50% more transmissible - without it, the situation here would've been much easier. The old variant is almost gone now.
 
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And the silence is deafening from the macho former Charlatan in Chief. He, that got vaccinated as he skulked out the back door after campaigning on his heroic recovery from C19. Are there other national leaders, other than Bolsonaro that are not speaking up for treatments?
To his credit, Trump decided to add to his CPAC claim that he, while he cured Covid that we should take the vaccine in a backwater interview with Maria Barotiromo or someone on Fox. Hopefully that will get some of the estimated 50% of male Republicans to consider their future and lessen the length of suffering.
Brazil's Bolsonaro is now running scared 'cause he won't get elected and is feeling way less macho than 6 months ago. Brazil's prior Executive Branch has a tendency to end up in prison when the new regime come in and I doubt there's room at Mar a Lago for another bloated strongman wannabe. The virus is an equalizer and there may be hope which could be that citizens realize they suffered needlessly while their current Politician trolling for votes is largely responsible for the carnage. They can vote their experience, maybe.

IMO Bolsanaro should be invited to work, in lieu of jail time; as an underfed laborer for the worst affected tribe of indigenous Yanomami at the hottest, most humid part of the Amazon. I have a candidate for his apprentice...get that...Apprentice?
 
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About the blood clots, those seem to be extremely rare cases, but there seems to be a slight statistical abnormality in younger women (20-50). Like seven cases of those brain thromboses where one would be expected. It could have something to do with contraception and a certain heart precondition, if I understand it right.
 
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WHO just recommended that AZ vaccination continue. The European regulatory agency already recommended that the AZ vaccinations continue while the investigation is ongoing. The pause was really unnecessary. It is pretty clear that the benefit of the vaccine clearly outweighs whatever harm is associated with it. As I said with the US stockpile, if countries don't want to use the vaccine, they should ship to someone who will.
 
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Belgium has continued using AZ exactly because benefits far outweigh potential issues. 'The pill' has a much higher risk regarding blood cloths, by the way.

Meanwhile, vaccine wars:
I think the vaccinations should continue, but it should be investigated and people should be informed as best as possible to decide whether they want to be vaccinated. Because of course the benefits for society outweigh the risk, but is it the same for the individual? About the pill, I can decide myself whether I think it's worth it (and for that same reason I am not taking a certain type which would have another important benefit, that is no bleeding anymore...). But with corona it's very hard for the individual woman in her early twenties. Just asking her to do it for the benefit of others, well, you can do that, but if there is a risk and there are indications for that risk, she should know about it and it shouldn't be hidden. :)
 
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That is why I have stated that if vaccinations were a new invention, I doubt they would catch on in the West. We see that in the shockingly low annual flu vaccination rates. There is not enough value placed on social responsibility over individual choice. And vaccinations are somewhat unique in that you can fully enjoy the benefits of the vaccine if enough other people get it. All the benefits without any of the risks! Even the ad campaigns highlight the parts about individual desires. Emphasizing what you can do after you are immune etc. Vaccination as an institution survives mostly through inertia. And even that is showing cracks as parents increasingly fall down anti-vax rabbit holes online. The truth is that the people who are the most vulnerable to infection respond the least to vaccines. To fully protect them, younger people need to step up and shoulder the very slight risk of adverse reactions. IMO......

I don't know what the consent forms are for the AZ vaccine, but the pfizer one that I received spelled out the potential dangers and even said that things could happen that they don't even know about currently. I thought it was a transparent document about risks.
 
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That is why I have stated that if vaccinations were a new invention, I doubt they would catch on in the West. We see that in the shockingly low annual flu vaccination rates. There is not enough value placed on social responsibility over individual choice. And vaccinations are somewhat unique in that you can fully enjoy the benefits of the vaccine if enough other people get it. All the benefits without any of the risks! Even the ad campaigns highlight the parts about individual desires. Emphasizing what you can do after you are immune etc. Vaccination as an institution survives mostly through inertia. And even that is showing cracks as parents increasingly fall down anti-vax rabbit holes online. The truth is that the people who are the most vulnerable to infection respond the least to vaccines. To fully protect them, younger people need to step up and shoulder the very slight risk of adverse reactions. IMO......

I don't know what the consent forms are for the AZ vaccine, but the pfizer one that I received spelled out the potential dangers and even said that things could happen that they don't even know about currently. I thought it was a transparent document about risks.
I agree and feel like people are more and more self centered about everything. The good of the all mentality might be on its way out. I do wonder though if those who don't get vaccinated might be harder hit in the next virus season. Granted the people who got vaccinated reduce the risk, but the virus is looking for a host.

OT for this thread, but another similar example: my wife's job was union (optional, but over 90% were members), but as the older employees retired and were replace by younger workers, the younger workers opted not to join. Not because they were against unions, but because they didn't have to be members to enjoy the benefits that the unions negotiated. Why join, why get vaccinated when someone else is 'doing it for you'?
 
Belgium has continued using AZ exactly because benefits far outweigh potential issues. 'The pill' has a much higher risk regarding blood cloths, by the way.

Meanwhile, vaccine wars:
However, if there IS a connection, then women who are taking birth control have the right to know there is stronger possibility of blood clots with this specific vaccine and thus have the right to refuse that vaccine in favor of a different one. A large percentage of women do take contraceptives for multiple reasons.



I think the vaccinations should continue, but it should be investigated and people should be informed as best as possible to decide whether they want to be vaccinated. Because of course the benefits for society outweigh the risk, but is it the same for the individual? About the pill, I can decide myself whether I think it's worth it (and for that same reason I am not taking a certain type which would have another important benefit, that is no bleeding anymore...). But with corona it's very hard for the individual woman in her early twenties. Just asking her to do it for the benefit of others, well, you can do that, but if there is a risk and there are indications for that risk, she should know about it and it shouldn't be hidden. :)
Right there with you and wish I could take those, but can't....so seasonal became my preferred options. Now just need to get the misinformation about the vaccine could cause infertility squashed.
 
That is why I have stated that if vaccinations were a new invention, I doubt they would catch on in the West. We see that in the shockingly low annual flu vaccination rates. There is not enough value placed on social responsibility over individual choice. And vaccinations are somewhat unique in that you can fully enjoy the benefits of the vaccine if enough other people get it. All the benefits without any of the risks! Even the ad campaigns highlight the parts about individual desires. Emphasizing what you can do after you are immune etc. Vaccination as an institution survives mostly through inertia. And even that is showing cracks as parents increasingly fall down anti-vax rabbit holes online. The truth is that the people who are the most vulnerable to infection respond the least to vaccines. To fully protect them, younger people need to step up and shoulder the very slight risk of adverse reactions. IMO......

I don't know what the consent forms are for the AZ vaccine, but the pfizer one that I received spelled out the potential dangers and even said that things could happen that they don't even know about currently. I thought it was a transparent document about risks.
Well, in Germany I think the best solution would be to give it to those who want it anyway, just being open about the risks. There are more than enough people who want it.
 
I agree and feel like people are more and more self centered about everything. The good of the all mentality might be on its way out. I do wonder though if those who don't get vaccinated might be harder hit in the next virus season. Granted the people who got vaccinated reduce the risk, but the virus is looking for a host.
I think this is likely. And it will start soon-ish in the sunbelt when they enter their perpetual AC mode. Behavior is changing and places like Florida will be hit with the double whammy of increased tourist travel and a high proportion of the variants.

By next fall, I think most people are going to be back to relative normal and that will lead to a rebound because I doubt we hit herd immunity through vaccination. I worry about the old folks who have been brain poisoned by facebook and will not get a shot. Right now they are partially protected by people being cautious. Once that changes, they will be magnets for the virus.
Well, in Germany I think the best solution would be to give it to those who want it anyway, just being open about the risks. There are more than enough people who want it.
Agreed. I saw quite a few on twitter who had their appointment cancelled and were not pleased about it. Hard to imagine seeing the finish line in sight and have it yanked from you. They are still at a stage where demand is way higher than supply. Finding volunteers would not be hard.
 
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