Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Well, in Germany I think the best solution would be to give it to those who want it anyway, just being open about the risks. There are more than enough people who want it.

Agreed. I'd say anywhere where A.Z. is being used to ensure when a person signs up they know that is the one they'll be getting. Ensure the risks are explained. The difference between say Pfizer and Moderna (and it appears possibly Novavax) aren't that different. Right now in a few places it appears that we have a group who are somewhat hesitant for the vaccine, but are willing to take the J&J and are looking for that one and it's hard to find that one. I suspect we may need more of it.
 
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What the ministry of health doesn't tell you is how many of those non-vaccinated have pre-existing medical conditions (e.g, hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, obesity). Most healthy people that get infected are either asymptomatic or experience mild symptoms that self-resolve.

"Most Severe COVID Cases Tied to Four Conditions."


"-- The majority of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States are attributable to four pre-existing conditions, a new study suggests."

"The authors estimate that among the 906,849 total COVID-19 hospitalizations of U.S. adults as of November, 30% were related to obesity, 26% to high blood pressure, 21% to diabetes, and 12% to heart failure."


"From the data, the investigators estimate that almost two thirds (63.5%) of the hospitalizations were due to these conditions and that those hospitalization might not have been needed if the patients did not have one of those conditions."

"They estimate that a 10% reduction in these four conditions could have prevented 11.1% of COVID-19 hospitalizations."

"The authors believe more should be done to promote healthy lifestyle measures to improve overall health and minimize the risk for severe COVID-19."


"It is a sad fact that this disease has been around for a whole year with millions dead and tens of millions hospitalized worldwide, and we haven't addressed one of the major ways of preventing such severe outcomes," senior author Dariush Mozaffarian, MD, is a cardiologist and dean of the School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University in Boston, told Medscape."
 
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What the ministry of health doesn't tell you is how many of those non-vaccinated have pre-existing medical conditions (e.g, hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, obesity). Most healthy people that get infected are either asymptomatic or experience mild symptoms that self-resolve.

"Most Severe COVID Cases Tied to Four Conditions."


"-- The majority of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States are attributable to four pre-existing conditions, a new study suggests."

"The authors estimate that among the 906,849 total COVID-19 hospitalizations of U.S. adults as of November, 30% were related to obesity, 26% to high blood pressure, 21% to diabetes, and 12% to heart failure."


"From the data, the investigators estimate that almost two thirds (63.5%) of the hospitalizations were due to these conditions and that those hospitalization might not have been needed if the patients did not have one of those conditions."

"They estimate that a 10% reduction in these four conditions could have prevented 11.1% of COVID-19 hospitalizations."

"The authors believe more should be done to promote healthy lifestyle measures to improve overall health and minimize the risk for severe COVID-19."


"It is a sad fact that this disease has been around for a whole year with millions dead and tens of millions hospitalized worldwide, and we haven't addressed one of the major ways of preventing such severe outcomes," senior author Dariush Mozaffarian, MD, is a cardiologist and dean of the School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University in Boston, told Medscape."
I know that in the USA, most of the anti vax (anti mask...) people at the protests are "larger than is healthy", so we can assume what will happen to them.
 
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What the ministry of health doesn't tell you is how many of those non-vaccinated have pre-existing medical conditions (e.g, hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, obesity). Most healthy people that get infected are either asymptomatic or experience mild symptoms that self-resolve.

"Most Severe COVID Cases Tied to Four Conditions."


"-- The majority of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States are attributable to four pre-existing conditions, a new study suggests."

"The authors estimate that among the 906,849 total COVID-19 hospitalizations of U.S. adults as of November, 30% were related to obesity, 26% to high blood pressure, 21% to diabetes, and 12% to heart failure."


"From the data, the investigators estimate that almost two thirds (63.5%) of the hospitalizations were due to these conditions and that those hospitalization might not have been needed if the patients did not have one of those conditions."

"They estimate that a 10% reduction in these four conditions could have prevented 11.1% of COVID-19 hospitalizations."

"The authors believe more should be done to promote healthy lifestyle measures to improve overall health and minimize the risk for severe COVID-19."


"It is a sad fact that this disease has been around for a whole year with millions dead and tens of millions hospitalized worldwide, and we haven't addressed one of the major ways of preventing such severe outcomes," senior author Dariush Mozaffarian, MD, is a cardiologist and dean of the School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University in Boston, told Medscape."
I agree with the bolded part. The nutrition part is not something you can just snap your fingers and change on a dime. We should work to eliminate those conditions independent of COVID-19, but making people healthy is not something that happens after a month in the gym. There are a lot of issues with fresh food availability that are beyond the scope of the thread.

"National data show that Black and Hispanic Americans are suffering the worst outcomes from COVID-19. Our findings lend support to the need for prioritizing vaccine distribution, good nutrition, and other preventive measures," Mozaffarian said.

"Policies aimed at reducing the prevalence of these four … conditions among Black and Hispanic Americans must be part of any state or national policy discussion aimed at reducing health disparities from COVID-19," he said.
View: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1372540703188860940
 
Anyway situation in Israel is very encouraging and it is understatment. I dare to say amazing but I dont want to say it to jinx it. :p I believe there are very mild to non restrictions for vaccinated people according to media information and still we can see sharp decrease in new cases according to worldmeter. It seems R number is stable under 1 which suggest herd imunnity. But it is only my suggestion. Next think according tweet djpbaltimore posted is that 98 % of severe cases over 60 are unvaccinated. Despite of the fact that they are at higher risk than before imo it is great news and when herd imunity will held R under 1 I think we will see decrase severe cases amongst this people as well.
 
Anyway situation in Israel is very encouraging and it is understatment. I dare to say amazing but I dont want to say it to jinx it. :p I believe there are very mild to non restrictions for vaccinated people according to media information and still we can see sharp decrease in new cases according to worldmeter. It seems R number is stable under 1 which suggest herd imunnity. But it is only my suggestion. Next think according tweet djpbaltimore posted is that 98 % of severe cases over 60 are unvaccinated. Despite of the fact that they are at higher risk than before imo it is great news and when herd imunity will held R under 1 I think we will see decrase severe cases amongst this people as well.
Even more impressive is that most of the cases are involving one of the 'scary' variants and it is still declining rapidly.

I mentioned this earlier, but there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that long-haulers are being helped by vaccination too. It has been published in the times and the post, but I have not seen a real rigorous scientific study on this yet.

 
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Thanks for posting this info, I was wondering how the trials go and this lack of efficacy against SA variant is my bigger concern with respect to taking AZ than it being unsafe...
You're welcome. I find that to be concerning as well. Good thing that Moderna has started trials for a booster against that type of variant. Their hope is the booster will work with any of the vaccines.
 
  1. The vaccines work to prevent severe disease.
  2. This is why I am worried about the unvaccinated once people go back to relatively normal lives.
View: https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1371076314879434761
It'd be interesting to see how those people overlap into categories that heavy smokers, weight issue related issues, etc. Many may already be the high-risk, high users of medical treatment. Countries with full-wrap, public medical coverage could be looking at either significant increases in cost or further hardening of risk in groups already utilizing the greatest amount of services?
 

Zeit is usually rather reliable, I read something similar in a Norwegian magazine which didn't look trashy, as well. So the AZ vaccine very probably increases the risk of a venous thrombosis in the brain in women younger than 55. I don't know if this adheres to AZ only or other vaccines as well. It is still an incredibly low risk - but it is there and it can be deadly, so I find it wrong to just state "the vaccine is safe" to calm down society. Doesn't build trust, in my opinion. Would be better to say how very low the risk is, but that it is there, especially, when like in Germany you have enough people asking for any vaccine at all, and other vaccines exist as well.
 
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So, the UK will see a significant reduction in vaccine supply next month due to a certain unreliable vaccine maker not being able to deliver the doses they promised... Because this is in the month where a lot of people there need their second 'jab', very little new people will be able to receive their first dose. Ultimately, it could be that the EU catches up with the UK by the start of the summer.

 
I agree with the bolded part. The nutrition part is not something you can just snap your fingers and change on a dime. We should work to eliminate those conditions independent of COVID-19, but making people healthy is not something that happens after a month in the gym. There are a lot of issues with fresh food availability that are beyond the scope of the thread.


View: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1372540703188860940
Yeah, the data from Texas also seems to back the vaccine effect claim, 2 weeks without restrictions and the numbers went clearly down (10% of the overall population got vaccinated). it looks like once you've reached the critical point of vaccinating enough potential high risk patients the body count and number of people in intensive care really starts dropping.

Source:
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/covid-cases-in-texas-decline-as-restrictions-are-lifted/
https://khn.org/morning-breakout/texas-experiences-big-two-week-decline-in-new-covid-case-numbers/
 
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We have to be realistic and acknowledge that vaccines cause death - The medico's will never admit to this fact, but instead will use terms such as ' within expectations ', 'there is no direct cause and effect relationship,' etc,etc,etc. Ultimately it is a risk vs reward situation.
 
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