Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Koronin]

Hospitalized typically means being admitted and thus spending at least one night in the hospital. You can go to the ER, be treated, and go home and you were never hospitalized.

Of course the question is is Omicron truly less deadly or causing less severe reactions or is the less severe reaction due to a combination of vaccination and previous infection? That is a question we don't have an answer to.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Or the "hospitalized" might have meant more about going to a clinic and not being Admited over night for care. Regardless the wave is on its way back down and was not prolonged or severe as Delta. Knocking out good news is such a thing to do these days.

I think the talk about the wave breaking is premature. Show me where the case numbers are going down. The good news is the data below. But that is likely due to reinfections, which are expected to be less severe.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472664060445569026

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1472664060445569026

 

[Cookster15]

Of course the question is is Omicron truly less deadly or causing less severe reactions or is the less severe reaction due to a combination of vaccination and previous infection? That is a question we don't have an answer to.

We don't have the definitive answer but it is looking more and more likely that Omicron is less deadly than earlier variants.

In Australia restrictions have been eased. Omicron is on the march as measured by record daily case counts. But hospitalizations and deaths are not. Possibly omicron is deadly to the unvaccinated. But looks to me like it is virtually harmless to the vaccinated. The challenge now is ensuring people get boosters.

The data might be out but IMHO case counts should be ignored now and daily hospitalization rates emphasized. I live in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW). With omicron and relaxation of restrictions, NSW hospitalizations are way lower than the peaks seen as recently as September despite case counts at record levels.

https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-hospitalised/nsw?sort=date

 

[Ultrairon]

Hospitalized typically means being admitted and thus spending at least one night in the hospital. You can go to the ER, be treated, and go home and you were never hospitalized.

Of course the question is is Omicron truly less deadly or causing less severe reactions or is the less severe reaction due to a combination of vaccination and previous infection? That is a question we don't have an answer to.

Is that the definition being used in South Africa? I am just asking because I don't know and I don't think you know either. The news article posted says hospitalization is way less for the omnicron also the cases were at the peak etc. I'm not sure about that but it was the state doctor for South Africa that made the statement.

 

[Koronin]

Is that the definition being used in South Africa? I am just asking because I don't know and I don't think you know either. The news article posted says hospitalization is way less for the omnicron also the cases were at the peak etc. I'm not sure about that but it was the state doctor for South Africa that made the statement.

Don't know. It's obviously the definition in the US and from friends I have in Spain it's the same definition there.

We don't have the definitive answer but it is looking more and more likely that Omicron is less deadly than earlier variants.

In Australia restrictions have been eased. Omicron is on the march as measured by record daily case counts. But hospitalizations and deaths are not. Possibly omicron is deadly to the unvaccinated. But looks to me like it is virtually harmless to the vaccinated. The challenge now is ensuring people get boosters.

The data might be out but IMHO case counts should be ignored now and daily hospitalization rates emphasized. I live in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW). With omicron and relaxation of restrictions, NSW hospitalizations are way lower than the peaks seen as recently as September despite case counts at record levels.

https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-hospitalised/nsw?sort=date

I completely agree with you that case count isn't as important at this point as hospitalization is. Now in the US hospitalization numbers had gone up before the new variant got a real foothold here. I do think what we are seeing in pro and likely college sports right now is the new variant. Also saw that today NJ, Colorado and one more state (don't remember which one) said they aren't locking down again.

 

[Ultrairon]

I think the talk about the wave breaking is premature. Show me where the case numbers are going down. The good news is the data below. But that is likely due to reinfections, which are expected to be less severe.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472664060445569026

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1472664060445569026

I'm not the one making statements it was South Africa’s Minister of Health. Go argue with him. I was parroting his good news which finds troubled waters in these forums.

I did see a DR on a "news" station making statements about covid and thought there finally is someone who wins the dull lamp award. Dr. Hotez the pediatrician in Houston. What a fat slob takes the award for letting politics get in the way of information.

 

[djpbaltimore]

We don't have the definitive answer but it is looking more and more likely that Omicron is less deadly than earlier variants.

In Australia restrictions have been eased. Omicron is on the march as measured by record daily case counts. But hospitalizations and deaths are not. Possibly omicron is deadly to the unvaccinated. But looks to me like it is virtually harmless to the vaccinated. The challenge now is ensuring people get boosters.

The data might be out but IMHO case counts should be ignored now and daily hospitalization rates emphasized. I live in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW). With omicron and relaxation of restrictions, NSW hospitalizations are way lower than the peaks seen as recently as September despite case counts at record levels.

It might APPEAR less deadly, but unless you are controlling for prior exposure or vaccination, the analysis is not worth much. And I have not seen any data that conclusively shows that omicron is less deadly than delta if you are immune naive.

I'm not the one making statements it was South Africa’s Minister of Health. Go argue with him. I was parroting his good news which finds troubled waters in these forums.

I did see a DR on a "news" station making statements about covid and thought there finally is someone who wins the dull lamp award. Dr. Hotez the pediatrician in Houston. What a fat slob takes the award for letting politics get in the way of information.

then provide the source of the quote.

Dr. Hotez helped immensely with sars vaccines, so is hated by antivaxxers. You dont become a Dean at Baylor by being dumb.

 

[Ultrairon]

It might APPEAR less deadly, but unless you are controlling for prior exposure or vaccination, the analysis is not worth much. And I have not seen any data that conclusively shows that omicron is less deadly than delta if you are immune naive.

then provide the source of the quote.

Dr. Hotez helped immensely with sars vaccines, so is hated by antivaxxers. You dont become a Dean at Baylor by being dumb.

Someone else posted the quote already. Are you reading or not? You even gave it a thumbs up.

Dr. Hotez lets politics get in the way of his oath. I don't follow the antivax crowd so I am really not interested in it. He needs to get out and lose some of that fat after all its not a good look. Spend more time in the gym and less on tv?

 

[Ultrairon]

The NYC numbers for the unvax is pretty bad, I don't know the validity of the numbers but I think that trend is the same elsewhere in the country.

You have to scroll down a little on the link but the cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all shown. I had a friend ask me if they should go ahead and get the vax and I told them yes and they should have already gotten it. I sent them this link to show the differences in outcomes. Maybe I should have made fun of him instead and told him he was a idiot worm paste eating fool? That seems to be the approach some here would take based on the posting history. Or should I have sent him a youtube of some country bumpkins who refused to take the vax and ended up passing away because of it? The spiking of the football or victory dance?

COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health

www1.nyc.gov

 

[Unchained]

The NYC numbers for the unvax is pretty bad, I don't know the validity of the numbers but I think that trend is the same elsewhere in the country.

You have to scroll down a little on the link but the cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all shown. I had a friend ask me if they should go ahead and get the vax and I told them yes and they should have already gotten it. I sent them this link to show the differences in outcomes. Maybe I should have made fun of him instead and told him he was a idiot worm paste eating fool? That seems to be the approach some here would take based on the posting history. Or should I have sent him a youtube of some country bumpkins who refused to take the vax and ended up passing away because of it? The spiking of the football or victory dance?

COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health

www1.nyc.gov

by most accounts the pandemic has been going on world wide for 2 years. YouTube and other places have a wide range of information,often things are there for retransmission,while others are original content made by internet idiots. I think 2 years on,if anyone is not sure about getting the vaccine,rather than look at YouTube videos about the vaccine,,may I suggest,a search for content about natural selection, maybe a Charlie Darwin video or 2.
Yesterday I watched a bit of financial TV programming and I was smiling as big hitters talked about predictions for countries and companies pertaining to the pandemic. Short term numbers as drug manufacturers bring things to market,ect. When asked about vaccines in the workplace, one guy said w w big smile " it's as if people are saying that they can run stop lights or traffic signals as a matter of personal choice or preference. And keep in mind that if we were to go to war and you get drafted, there is no option,you have to act for the greater good " I always like the going to war references..liked it @2 years ago when US leadership said we were at war against the invisible virus,the invisible enemy.

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w56u2gv8XLs

 

[Nomad]

"Federal hearing begins in Navy SEALs challenge to Defense Department's vaccine mandate."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article256719752.html

 

[djpbaltimore]

Someone else posted the quote already. Are you reading or not? You even gave it a thumbs up.

Dr. Hotez lets politics get in the way of his oath. I don't follow the antivax crowd so I am really not interested in it. He needs to get out and lose some of that fat after all its not a good look. Spend more time in the gym and less on tv?

Speaking of quotes, I thought you would like the one from outgoing NIH head honcho Francis Collins. He called Fauci "the greatest expert in infectious disease the world has known".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472921160916602891

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidJuurlink/status/1472921160916602891

 

[Ultrairon]

"Federal hearing begins in Navy SEALs challenge to Defense Department's vaccine mandate."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article256719752.html

I believe any federal employee (military) have no grounds or no legal avenue to refuse any vax the government decide they need. I can say over the years I was injected with many different things that was suspect but so far I am still on planet earth.

Simple they signed a contract and swore an oath to the country. Go back and look at anthrax press from late 90's. Also there were the PB pills which were given out and there was no choice given. Basically you belong to the USgov.

I had a very good friend pass away due to DS syndrome. I have pictures of him and a bunch of other including myself crawling around on destroyed T-72's . Those were hit with DU ordnance no one said a word until weeks later our NBC (nuclear biological and chemical) guys came around and razor wired with caution tape. Neither he nor anyone else could sue the government.

Back when I went to JET school (jungle training) in the Philippines we were required to take a Japanese encephalitis vaccine. That vax was not approved in the USA until 2009! Not one of us could refuse nor sue the government. If so you reap the consequences of the government.


"Inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccine (manufactured as IXIARO) is the only JE vaccine licensed and available in the United States. This vaccine was approved in March 2009 for use in people aged 17 years and older and in May 2013 for use in children 2 months through 16 years of age.'

I don't think those Navy Seals stand a chance to challenge the federal employee mandate. I hate mandates and every bureaucratic decision those people try to make for citizens. Its a matter of individual liberties and has nothing to do with people being selfish.

 

[Ultrairon]

Speaking of quotes, I thought you would like the one from outgoing NIH head honcho Francis Collins. He called Fauci "the greatest expert in infectious disease the world has known".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472921160916602891

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidJuurlink/status/1472921160916602891

So you did not read that other persons post. Fauci is a bureaucrat posing as a authority on science. He is a scared old man who lives to be seen on tv.

On that graph you presented for Switzerland it does not confirm those deaths are omnicron. Challenge is to find what the actual deaths due to that variant. That is going to be tough to find but if we use South Africa as a guide then the number is going to be really low. Get the vax yes, post up panic graphs that show 12+ deaths NO and stop the panic pushing.

You are way better than that are you not? Or is this still beating up and making fun of the working people who have not done what they were told by the government?

 

[Ricco']

Portugal have one of the lowest IC capacities in Europe, so they have almost no margin.

Not just ICU, our national health service is in a very bad situation. Lack of investment and low payment to nurses and doctors results in lack of resources even for urgencies and other-than-covid issues. We had a couple of mass resignations by chiefs of urgency in some of the major hospitals one or two months ago and, if without covid we always had very complicated situations during the flu season with urgencies overloaded, with covid is even worse.

And, from the beginning of the pandemic until now, the situation is even worse and almost nothing has been done to improve the situation and the amount of resources available.

 

[movingtarget]

Approval of new Covid jab raises hopes of persuading Germany’s unvaccinated

First doses of protein-based Nuvaxovid are expected to be used in new year after European Medicines Agency gives go-ahead

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

Covid and saffron

Read More...

 

[djpbaltimore]

So you did not read that other persons post. Fauci is a bureaucrat posing as a authority on science. He is a scared old man who lives to be seen on tv.

On that graph you presented for Switzerland it does not confirm those deaths are omnicron. Challenge is to find what the actual deaths due to that variant. That is going to be tough to find but if we use South Africa as a guide then the number is going to be really low. Get the vax yes, post up panic graphs that show 12+ deaths NO and stop the panic pushing.

You are way better than that are you not? Or is this still beating up and making fun of the working people who have not done what they were told by the government?

You are guilty of what you just accused Hotez of. And I don't mean the pointless jibes about his girth.

If you want me to read the quote, at least say who posted it. I am not going to waste my time looking for something that might not even exist.

South Africa is not a good test case because Delta infected most of the country already. Combined with vaccines, not many naive people left, so it is tough to get a good read based on their data. NYC is the epicenter in the U.S. for omicron. The hospitalizations are booming for the unvaccinated only. You can do the math.

 

[Nomad]

I believe any federal employee (military) have no grounds or no legal avenue to refuse any vax the government decide they need. I can say over the years I was injected with many different things that was suspect but so far I am still on planet earth.

Simple they signed a contract and swore an oath to the country. Go back and look at anthrax press from late 90's. Also there were the PB pills which were given out and there was no choice given. Basically you belong to the USgov.

I had a very good friend pass away due to DS syndrome. I have pictures of him and a bunch of other including myself crawling around on destroyed T-72's . Those were hit with DU ordnance no one said a word until weeks later our NBC (nuclear biological and chemical) guys came around and razor wired with caution tape. Neither he nor anyone else could sue the government.

Back when I went to JET school (jungle training) in the Philippines we were required to take a Japanese encephalitis vaccine. That vax was not approved in the USA until 2009! Not one of us could refuse nor sue the government. If so you reap the consequences of the government.


"Inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccine (manufactured as IXIARO) is the only JE vaccine licensed and available in the United States. This vaccine was approved in March 2009 for use in people aged 17 years and older and in May 2013 for use in children 2 months through 16 years of age.'

I don't think those Navy Seals stand a chance to challenge the federal employee mandate. I hate mandates and every bureaucratic decision those people try to make for citizens. Its a matter of individual liberties and has nothing to do with people being selfish.

I wasn't sure what the military's policy is on vaccinations. The article caught my attention because I used to train with a retired SEAL that I met at a bodybuilding gym about 10 yrs ago when I was in my late 40s/early 50s. We would have friendly competitions on who could do more pull-ups, sit-ups, push-ups, etc. He wasn't a big guy by any means but pound for pound he was one of the strongest guys I've ever met.

Interestingly, 47 members of both chambers of Congress have come out in support filing an Amicus brief in favor of the SEALs:

Lawmakers side with Navy SEALS facing discharge over COVID mandate

By Casey Harper The Center Square https://www.thecentersquare.com/ Dozens of lawmakers announced their support for a group of Navy SEALs who sued the Biden adm

highlandcountypress.com

Despite the policy you cited, the military is seeing a plethora of religous exemptions requests:

Troops find religious exemption for COVID-19 vaccines unattainable

Obtaining a religious exemption is rooted in a process that predates the pandemic and has been used for decisions such as whether troops on duty can wear head coverings or beards for religious reasons.

www.militarytimes.com

Religious exemption requests from the branches:

Air Force: 4700
Navy: 2700
Army: 1700
Marines: 3100

 

[Cookster15]

It might APPEAR less deadly, but unless you are controlling for prior exposure or vaccination, the analysis is not worth much. And I have not seen any data that conclusively shows that omicron is less deadly than delta if you are immune naive.

I get your point but you won't have to wait long to get your data.

I just stumbled upon the latest UK stats which reveal a massive spike in cases to nearly 90,000 per day - but no change as yet to the very low death rate or hospitalizations. I assume this massive spike in UK cases must be omicron?

What is the normal lag between new cases and deaths / hospitalizations? Next two weeks will be interesting in the UK and should answer the question on virulence. But if a very high proportion of the population is vaccinated means hospitalizations and deaths remain low then I guess the virulence of omicron to the immune naive doesn't matter. But the early data around the world suggests it is significantly less virulent than delta.

Here is also another professional opinion from an Australian epidemiologist who agrees with my view:

Leading Melbourne epidemiologist believes Omicron is 'low on virulence' (msn.com)

 

[Koronin]

Have ESPN on and they were talking to the NBA commissioner. He said because of how they test they are able to sequence all of the positive tests and that 90% of current cases of Covid in the NBA is the Omicron variant.

I suspect that percentage for Omicron vs other variants is similar with the other sports leagues as well.

 

[Ultrairon]

I wasn't sure what the military's policy is on vaccinations. The article caught my attention because I used to train with a retired SEAL that I met at a bodybuilding gym about 10 yrs ago when I was in my late 40s/early 50s. We would have friendly competitions on who could do more pull-ups, sit-ups, push-ups, etc. He wasn't a big guy by any means but pound for pound he was one of the strongest guys I've ever met.

Interestingly, 47 members of both chambers of Congress have come out in support filing an Amicus brief in favor of the SEALs:

Lawmakers side with Navy SEALS facing discharge over COVID mandate

By Casey Harper The Center Square https://www.thecentersquare.com/ Dozens of lawmakers announced their support for a group of Navy SEALs who sued the Biden adm

highlandcountypress.com

Despite the policy you cited, the military is seeing a plethora of religous exemptions requests:

Troops find religious exemption for COVID-19 vaccines unattainable

Obtaining a religious exemption is rooted in a process that predates the pandemic and has been used for decisions such as whether troops on duty can wear head coverings or beards for religious reasons.

www.militarytimes.com

Religious exemption requests from the branches:

Air Force: 4700
Navy: 2700
Army: 1700
Marines: 3100

Yeah I can see it and I understand it. There were folks who wanted to stay out of the PB pills and the Anthrax vax. All ended up getting them though. I will be interested to see what the end result will be. I expect they will have to accept it or will get discharged with an admin / other than honorable. Maybe not maybe the get it worked out in their favor. I can tell you for me I would not want to buck the system. In the Marines you are basically asking to catch hell.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I get your point but you won't have to wait long to get your data.

I just stumbled upon the latest UK stats which reveal a massive spike in cases to nearly 90,000 per day - but no change as yet to the very low death rate or hospitalizations. I assume this massive spike in UK cases must be omicron?

What is the normal lag between new cases and deaths / hospitalizations? Next two weeks will be interesting in the UK and should answer the question on virulence. But if a very high proportion of the population is vaccinated means hospitalizations and deaths remain low then I guess the virulence of omicron to the immune naive doesn't matter. But the early data around the world suggests it is significantly less virulent than delta.

Here is also another professional opinion from an Australian epidemiologist who agrees with my view:

Leading Melbourne epidemiologist believes Omicron is 'low on virulence' (msn.com)

From what I can gather, the majority of the UK cases are delta. It really looks like we are seeing what Jagartrot suggested earlier that delta and omicron can co-circulate. South Africa had pretty minimal delta when omicron hit considering it was their summer. And South Africa deaths are starting to creep up. It will take a few more weeks to really see good data.

That was an informative article. He mentions that the virulence will decrease further with boosters. Normally, I would say that a virus' virulence is intrinsic and not dependent on the host immune response. But if his definition is the way you define it, omicron will likely be about 10x milder than delta.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1473335798560870404

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/LawrenceGilder/status/1473335798560870404

 

[BigCoward]

From what I can gather, the majority of the UK cases are delta. It really looks like we are seeing what Jagartrot suggested earlier that delta and omicron can co-circulate. South Africa had pretty minimal delta when omicron hit considering it was their summer. And South Africa deaths are starting to creep up. It will take a few more weeks to really see good data.

That was an informative article. He mentions that the virulence will decrease further with boosters. Normally, I would say that a virus' virulence is intrinsic and not dependent on the host immune response. But if his definition is the way you define it, omicron will likely be about 10x milder than delta.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1473335798560870404

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/LawrenceGilder/status/1473335798560870404

Where you getting that from? Nobody here is saying that.

 

[Ranagazoo]

UK officially sequenced omicron cases are way behind the actual figure, which was estimated at around 70-80% of all new cases last time I looked. Anecdotally it seems London especially is swamped with it at the moment, everyone I know there either has it or knows several people with it. Hospitalisations in London are rising quite fast but it's believed a lot of these are hospitalised 'with' covid not 'for' covid, as patients on ventilation haven't increased at all. Delta cases supposedly falling quite quickly now, but I imagine most deaths currently are delta.