Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Ultrairon]

Been a week looks like the much anticipated bump was not what some expected.

South Africa: the latest coronavirus counts, charts and maps

Tracking the COVID-19 outbreak, updated daily

graphics.reuters.com

"COVID-19 infections are decreasing in South Africa, with 2,688 new infections reported on average each day. That’s 11% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on December 16. "

South Africa - COVID-19 Overview - Johns Hopkins

South Africa - COVID New Cases, Deaths, Testing Data - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

coronavirus.jhu.edu

COVID-19 cases | WHO COVID-19 dashboard

The latest data for coronavirus (COVID-19) cases from the WHO COVID-19 dashboard.

covid19.who.int

 

[Ultrairon]

When It Comes to Masks, the CDC is its Own Worst Enemy

The CDC spread what amounts to misinformation in its promotion of cloth masks, which countless medical experts have said are useless against Omicron.

www.newsweek.com

Omicron is exceptionally contagious. And when you have a virus with a high contagion rate and a preference for the upper respiratory system—such as Omicron—a cloth mask offers little to no protection. As the Cleveland Clinic notes, "cloth masks, which are often made of materials like cotton, don't do much to protect you from inhaling particles that carry the virus—and with a virus as infectious as omicron, that becomes a problem."

"Cloth masks are not going to cut it with Omicron," Linsey Marr, a researcher at Virginia Tech who studies how viruses transmit in the air, told news agency NPR in December.

Leana Wen, an emergency physician and visiting professor of health policy and management at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, told CNN that same month: "Cloth masks are little more than facial decorations. There's no place for them in light of Omicron."



From the CDC site. On the image that the CDC tweeted out Cloth Masks# if you go down to the bottom right of the image the # says this "# Not Statistically significant"
Enlarge the enlarge the image and read for yourself.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/social-media/mm7106e1_MaskingEffectiveness_IMAGE_04Feb22_1200x675_1.jpg

 

[djpbaltimore]

Motivated parties? Is that also how you refer to CDC? (and I would argue that there is greater reason to trust Danish authorities than American authorities, but ymmv)

You link to number of official covid deaths, which I too have said is increasing. You don't link to deaths in general. Overall deaths is on the way down, deaths caused by covid have plateaued.

Given our vaccine status, the high level of evasiveness of Omicron means that the functional CFR is far lower now than the CFR was for Delta. That in turn logically means that the ratio of false positives (deaths with, not deaths by) has changed since then.

Lol, CDC has been a motivated party since this pandemic has started. Look at Redfield and how he tried to throw out lab leak conspiracies to cover his own copious failures.

Are you arguing that they are lying that omicron has replaced delta here? I disagree with that one.

You are making an argument that just isn't likely. Deaths track cases with a lag of 2-3 weeks. Depending on a number of variables, the IFR will be different in Denmark than the US, but increasing cases will cause an increase in deaths. That is unavoidable if you want to move on from covid as a country. Nobody has herd immunity.

Whether that is the best decision to make is a different story, but I don't think leaders of these countries are being up front about what that decision entails.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1491619128209256448

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1491619128209256448

 

[jmdirt]

EDIT: sorry, this was an RE: to Coockster:

Your optimism is good IMO., but my point to your response is because I get the feeling that you think that if everyone was as optimistic as you SC2 would be better. Your optimism has no more effect on anything than others' pessimism/realism. Let me remind you that I was very optimistic in June 2021.

EDIT: I think that the obsession with the MSM (however that is defined) is strange. If the media is so horrible why do you read it (you as a general term, not you specifically)? I don't read the media for SC2 information unless its a link posted here, or one that comes up in a discussion with a trusted source.

 

[Netserk]

Lol, CDC has been a motivated party since this pandemic has started. Look at Redfield and how he tried to throw out lab leak conspiracies to cover his own copious failures.

Are you arguing that they are lying that omicron has replaced delta here? I disagree with that one.

You are making an argument that just isn't likely. Deaths track cases with a lag of 2-3 weeks. Depending on a number of variables, the IFR will be different in Denmark than the US, but increasing cases will cause an increase in deaths. That is unavoidable if you want to move on from covid as a country. Nobody has herd immunity.

Whether that is the best decision to make is a different story, but I don't think leaders of these countries are being up front about what that decision entails.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1491619128209256448

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1491619128209256448

What on Earth are you basing that reading on? I only talk about the situation in Denmark and the Danish data. My point was that two things changed in December here. Massive amount of boosters (which makes the situation here different to the one in the US) and a quite quick shift from Delta to Omicron. Both of those affected the relationship between cases and deaths, and that with the Danish definition of official covid deaths, it also increased the amount of false positives. That is relevant context for interpreting the situation here.

EDIT: Given that age is still the primary risk factor after vaccines, consider the distribution of boosters here (https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2022/Statusrapport/Statusrapport-36.ashx):

 

[djpbaltimore]

What on Earth are you basing that reading on? I only talk about the situation in Denmark and the Danish data. My point was that two things changed in December here. Massive amount of boosters (which makes the situation here different to the one in the US) and a quite quick shift from Delta to Omicron. Both of those affected the relationship between cases and deaths, and that with the Danish definition of official covid deaths, it also increased the amount of false positives. That is relevant context for interpreting the situation here.

EDIT: Given that age is still the primary risk factor after vaccines, consider the distribution of boosters here (https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2022/Statusrapport/Statusrapport-36.ashx):

You were the person who brought the cdc into this. Feel free to make your point in a clear manner. Also, you have never specified what a false positive was. Jmdrt made a good point on this upthread. Imo, the false positive line of argument is wishful thinking. I agree that the IFR is lower now (same as in the US), but that is compensated by a huge increase in case counts. If something is half as deadly, but you get 4x as many cases..... you can do the math. Do we agree that the omicron surge has led to a significant increase in covid deaths in Denmark because case counts went up 10x? It is simple math.

Boosting in older people is necessary, but they are not magic wands. Older people have poor immune responses.

 

[Oldermanish]

When It Comes to Masks, the CDC is its Own Worst Enemy

The CDC spread what amounts to misinformation in its promotion of cloth masks, which countless medical experts have said are useless against Omicron.

www.newsweek.com

Omicron is exceptionally contagious. And when you have a virus with a high contagion rate and a preference for the upper respiratory system—such as Omicron—a cloth mask offers little to no protection. As the Cleveland Clinic notes, "cloth masks, which are often made of materials like cotton, don't do much to protect you from inhaling particles that carry the virus—and with a virus as infectious as omicron, that becomes a problem."

"Cloth masks are not going to cut it with Omicron," Linsey Marr, a researcher at Virginia Tech who studies how viruses transmit in the air, told news agency NPR in December.

Leana Wen, an emergency physician and visiting professor of health policy and management at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, told CNN that same month: "Cloth masks are little more than facial decorations. There's no place for them in light of Omicron."



From the CDC site. On the image that the CDC tweeted out Cloth Masks# if you go down to the bottom right of the image the # says this "# Not Statistically significant"
Enlarge the enlarge the image and read for yourself.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/social-media/mm7106e1_MaskingEffectiveness_IMAGE_04Feb22_1200x675_1.jpg

Isn't the lack of effacy of cloth masks why N-95 are the recommended choice? That isn't new information.

 

[jmdirt]

Isn't the lack of effacy of cloth masks why N-95 are the recommended choice? That isn't new information.

Plus, are all cloth masks crated equally? A single ply poor quality cotton mask is the same as a three ply good quality cotton mask? Or a three ply synthetic mask? We could get into good fit vs poor fit too.
There is some really good reach available if people are willing to look (some of it has been posted here). N95/KN95 has been the best for the entirety of this crap show.

Its interesting that a person who refuses to wear a mask is the one yelling the most about them now.

EDIT: Plus, this statement misses the point: "As the Cleveland Clinic notes, "cloth masks, which are often made of materials like cotton, don't do much to protect you from inhaling particles that carry the virus—and with a virus as infectious as omicron, that becomes a problem." Masks are primarily used to reduce the amount of YOUR droplets from getting into the air, not to "protect you from inhaling the droplets". Clarification too, SC2 goes through your upper respiratory system with all variants, it just settles there more with Omicron.

 

[jmdirt]

When It Comes to Masks, the CDC is its Own Worst Enemy

The CDC spread what amounts to misinformation in its promotion of cloth masks, which countless medical experts have said are useless against Omicron.

www.newsweek.com

Omicron is exceptionally contagious. And when you have a virus with a high contagion rate and a preference for the upper respiratory system—such as Omicron—a cloth mask offers little to no protection. As the Cleveland Clinic notes, "cloth masks, which are often made of materials like cotton, don't do much to protect you from inhaling particles that carry the virus—and with a virus as infectious as omicron, that becomes a problem."

"Cloth masks are not going to cut it with Omicron," Linsey Marr, a researcher at Virginia Tech who studies how viruses transmit in the air, told news agency NPR in December.

Leana Wen, an emergency physician and visiting professor of health policy and management at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, told CNN that same month: "Cloth masks are little more than facial decorations. There's no place for them in light of Omicron."



From the CDC site. On the image that the CDC tweeted out Cloth Masks# if you go down to the bottom right of the image the # says this "# Not Statistically significant"
Enlarge the enlarge the image and read for yourself.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/social-media/mm7106e1_MaskingEffectiveness_IMAGE_04Feb22_1200x675_1.jpg

Poor research by the CDC.

 

[Ultrairon]

Plus, are all cloth masks crated equally? A single ply poor quality cotton mask is the same as a three ply good quality cotton mask? Or a three ply synthetic mask? We could get into good fit vs poor fit too.
There is some really good reach available if people are willing to look (some of it has been posted here). N95/KN95 has been the best for the entirety of this crap show.

Its interesting that a person who refuses to wear a mask is the one yelling the most about them now.

EDIT: Plus, this statement misses the point: "As the Cleveland Clinic notes, "cloth masks, which are often made of materials like cotton, don't do much to protect you from inhaling particles that carry the virus—and with a virus as infectious as omicron, that becomes a problem." Masks are primarily used to reduce the amount of YOUR droplets from getting into the air, not to "protect you from inhaling the droplets". Clarification too, SC2 goes through your upper respiratory system with all variants, it just settles there more with Omicron.

I will stop after this post. Masks are a waste of time unless you are wearing a N95 in my opinion. I also believe most are wearing for show.
So keep on using the disposable ones and the next time you are in a large shopping areas parking take a look around at all the masks on the ground. Or go to a local park and take a look around.

I will keep on not wearing a mask and will not be posting about it any more since you say I am "yelling".

Droplets LMAO Those are quotes from an article. You need to take up your discussion with the cleveland clinic or the author of the article.

 

[Ultrairon]

Isn't the lack of effacy of cloth masks why N-95 are the recommended choice? That isn't new information.

Exactly why I said cloth masks and disposable paper masks are useless or near useless.

 

[jmdirt]

I will stop after this post. Masks are a waste of time unless you are wearing a N95 in my opinion. I also believe most are wearing for show.
So keep on using the disposable ones and the next time you are in a large shopping areas parking take a look around at all the masks on the ground. Or go to a local park and take a look around.

I will keep on not wearing a mask and will not be posting about it any more since you say I am "yelling".

Droplets LMAO Those are quotes from an article. You need to take up your discussion with the cleveland clinic or the author of the article.

Hence why I put " " around it. I don't care if its the Cleveland Clinic, if they are going against even their own research with a quote, I'll point it out. Just like I'm calling th CDC out for doing poor mask research.

N95/KN95 are disposable/single use so...

I see an occasional mask on the ground, but not the piles that you see. Maybe its a location thing?

 

[movingtarget]

I haven't noticed masks laying on the ground but they are reportedly being found in the water quite often. Have also noticed a drop off in mask usage.

 

[Ultrairon]

PPE litter unmasked: Mandates increase mask litter, hurt environment, study shows

"Let's make sure ... we're not digging up gardens in years to come and finding masks," one researcher said.

www.cbsnews.com

COVID litter: we mapped discarded masks and gloves in 11 countries with the help of citizen science

Masks are back in wider use in the UK and elsewhere. Our research highlights the need to dispose of them correctly.

theconversation.com

Discarded masks litter beaches worldwide, threaten sea life

Discarded masks and gloves worn by people to protect against the coronavirus pandemic are turning up on beaches around the world

abcnews.go.com

Face Mask Litter Increased Almost 9,000% During First 7 Months of Pandemic, Study Finds - EcoWatch

The amount of disposable face masks littered in the environment increased by nearly 9,000 percent from March to October 2020 in response to the coronavirus pandemic. A new study published in Nature Sustainability used an app to track the emergence of Personal Protective Equipment pollution...

www.ecowatch.com

 

[Cookster15]

EDIT: sorry, this was an RE: to Cookster:

Your optimism is good IMO., but my point to your response is because I get the feeling that you think that if everyone was as optimistic as you SC2 would be better. Your optimism has no more effect on anything than others' pessimism/realism. Let me remind you that I was very optimistic in June 2021.

EDIT: I think that the obsession with the MSM (however that is defined) is strange. If the media is so horrible why do you read it (you as a general term, not you specifically)? I don't read the media for SC2 information unless its a link posted here, or one that comes up in a discussion with a trusted source.

That is not what I am saying. I am saying incessant pessimism will not see the end of this - and it won't. It serves no purpose. And there are very very serious implications for the world if this drags on.

We may not like it but the media drives public opinions - trusted sources not so much. And with trusted sources they don’t agree anyway. The science is evolving. In any case, trusted sources have, generally, been proven grossly pessimistic. Name a model that was close to accurate? These models are still based upon scientific opinion. Opinions are not evidence - data is.

But if I had to choose between pessimism or optimism I will choose optimism every time. And just to prove I am balanced, I see the latest stats in NSW Australia show the first uptick in daily hospitalizations since Jan 31. Hopefully just a statistical aberration.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in NSW

covidlive.com.au

 

[jmdirt]

That is not what I am saying. I am saying incessant pessimism will not see the end of this - and it won't. It serves no purpose. And there are very very serious implications for the world if this drags on.

We may not like it but the media drives public opinions - trusted sources not so much. And with trusted sources they don’t agree anyway. The science is evolving. In any case, trusted sources have, generally, been proven grossly pessimistic. Name a model that was close to accurate? These models are still based upon scientific opinion. Opinions are not evidence - data is.

But if I had to choose between pessimism or optimism I will choose optimism every time. And just to prove I am balanced, I see the latest stats in NSW Australia show the first uptick in daily hospitalizations since Jan 31. Hopefully just a statistical aberration.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in NSW

covidlive.com.au

A distinction also has to be made between pessimism and fact. If cases are up, ICI are up, deaths are up, talking about that is not pessimism, its just simply discussing the facts.

 

[Unchained]

There is much to be learned from multiple Ultra posts, responsible,he often includes, in my opinion..which for me,is cool he owns it. Like the recent post about masks, he says that in his opinion N95, everything else is useless. That is conclusively proven world wide to be untrue scientifically,but it's cool for opinion.Like Coke or Pepsi.. Impossible to say,it's opinion.
Also there is hundreds of thousands,millions of data points that are vaccine affirming..decades,millions served in U.S. .military, w millions of vaccines administered as mandatory to start and continue serving,w a handful of cases were an active member failed to comply. So you have everything, how effective the vaccines are,were, how effective the overall military policy is and was, and what effect both had,have on mission readiness throughout the history both peace and wartime standing,recruited military. Overwhelming success.
schools the same..with US being an extremely safe place to study at all levels because of majority vaccine compliance..
So it looks pretty clear to those living by, if it ain't broke don't fix it..don't reinvent the wheel that this sudden fashion of questioning reality is a waste of time. Or you could go full internet and question all that history and say,maybe there is a better way..the question and the answer,both evident and crystal clear..no there was no better way..there never was a non medical solution to a medical problem..you can't protest away a pandemic..but still millions insist that it can be done..

US COVID-19 cases and deaths by state

How is the nation faring against COVID-19, both overall and at a state level? Get the answers here, with data on hotspots and infection rates. This map tracks the history of coronavirus cases in America, both recent and all-time.

usafacts.org

 

[jmdirt]

There is much to be learned from multiple Ultra posts, responsible,he often includes, in my opinion..which for me,is cool he owns it. Like the recent post about masks, he says that in his opinion N95, everything else is useless. That is conclusively proven world wide to be untrue scientifically,but it's cool for opinion.Like Coke or Pepsi.. Impossible to say,it's opinion.
Also there is hundreds of thousands,millions of data points that are vaccine affirming..decades,millions served in U.S. .military, w millions of vaccines administered as mandatory to start and continue serving,w a handful of cases were an active member failed to comply. So you have everything, how effective the vaccines are,were, how effective the overall military policy is and was, and what effect both had,have on mission readiness throughout the history both peace and wartime standing,recruited military. Overwhelming success.
schools the same..with US being an extremely safe place to study at all levels because of majority vaccine compliance..
So it looks pretty clear to those living by, if it ain't broke don't fix it..don't reinvent the wheel that this sudden fashion of questioning reality is a waste of time. Or you could go full internet and question all that history and say,maybe there is a better way..the question and the answer,both evident and crystal clear..no there was no better way..there never was a non medical solution to a medical problem..you can't protest away a pandemic..but still millions insist that it can be done..

US COVID-19 cases and deaths by state

How is the nation faring against COVID-19, both overall and at a state level? Get the answers here, with data on hotspots and infection rates. This map tracks the history of coronavirus cases in America, both recent and all-time.

usafacts.org

Iron refuses to wear a mask in an effort to save the environment.

 

[Unchained]

I am down w anything anti litter even if it kills you.
always I try and visit the life of crickets..they were everywhere..school board meetings..where defunding of art or music got people up in arms..
military..decades of silence and solidarity on vaccines and mission readiness..all the time crickets, not controversy or conversation,just cohesive,coordinated compliance and calm.
airline travel post 9/11?most like me were afraid to mouth off about a second bag of peanuts or why I can't order all 7 of the beers I am going to in-flight slam down..all previously afraid to disrupt the understood decorum of peaceful general public air travel..fights and screaming reserved for rock stars on small private jets..man Covid kicked decorum to the curb.
And not much before and after..who thought working at Piggly Wiggly or Safeway,Starbucks could get you assaulted or was high risk,first responders duty!!
The mask thing puzzles me? Especially after years of these and the numbers w and without

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0Tp0zB904Mc

 

[Ultrairon]

Iron refuses to wear a mask in an effort to save the environment.

I refuse to wear a mask because I am fully vaxed and have trouble breathing with a mask on.
The vax works there is no need for a mask. Unless it does not work.

 

[Ultrairon]

I am down w anything anti litter even if it kills you.
always I try and visit the life of crickets..they were everywhere..school board meetings..where defunding of art or music got people up in arms..
military..decades of silence and solidarity on vaccines and mission readiness..all the time crickets, not controversy or conversation,just cohesive,coordinated compliance and calm.
airline travel post 9/11?most like me were afraid to mouth off about a second bag of peanuts or why I can't order all 7 of the beers I am going to in-flight slam down..all previously afraid to disrupt the understood decorum of peaceful general public air travel..fights and screaming reserved for rock stars on small private jets..man Covid kicked decorum to the curb.
And not much before and after..who thought working at Piggly Wiggly or Safeway,Starbucks could get you assaulted or was high risk,first responders duty!!
The mask thing puzzles me? Especially after years of these and the numbers w and without

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0Tp0zB904Mc

You can go around anywhere in the southern states / Arizona with no mask on. But if you want to wear a mask no problem. Why is it such a problem for you? I am vaxed. Do you not believe in the vax?

 

[djpbaltimore]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1493346798173233159

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1493346798173233159

 

[Cookster15]

A distinction also has to be made between pessimism and fact. If cases are up, ICI are up, deaths are up, talking about that is not pessimism, its just simply discussing the facts.

Except you can decide which facts to post. We can also try to highlight data and facts which paint a more positive outlook - as I have posted.

In Australia those who died with Covid peaked on Jan 28 - 134 deaths recorded. Fact.

The 7 day moving average on Jan 28 was 87 deaths per day. Fact.

The 7 day moving average of those who died with Covid is now 56. That is a 35% fall. Good news. Another fact.

Some might call optimism complacency. But life has taught me optimism always results in more positive outcomes in the long run.

Context is always lost with Covid. Here is context. Every death is tragic. 4,618 Australians have died with Covid since the beginning of the pandemic.

Causes of death – Parliament of Australia

Causes of death

www.aph.gov.au

 

[Netserk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1493346798173233159

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1493346798173233159

So what is the prediction for excess mortality in the next three months here (given that we'll continue without restrictions)? How harsh NPIs would be needed to significantly lower that, and what burdens would they bring?

 

[jmdirt]

Except you can decide which facts to post. We can also try to highlight data and facts which paint a more positive outlook - as I have posted.

In Australia those who died with Covid peaked on Jan 28 - 134 deaths recorded. Fact.

The 7 day moving average on Jan 28 was 87 deaths per day. Fact.

The 7 day moving average of those who died with Covid is now 56. That is a 35% fall. Good news. Another fact.

Some might call optimism complacency. But life has taught me optimism always results in more positive outcomes in the long run.

Context is always lost with Covid. Here is context. Every death is tragic. 4,618 Australians have died with Covid since the beginning of the pandemic.

Causes of death – Parliament of Australia

Causes of death

www.aph.gov.au

Some context, 4,600 Australians have died, but 4,600 Idahoans have died...little podunk (~1.8 mil) Idaho has the same number of deaths as your entire country (~25 mil). 921,000 deaths for the USA! Facts...