Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[jmdirt]

The discussion and info from cookster seemed sincere. You obviously have a different opinion.
I disagree with your statement. You are the most disingenuous person to ever visit the forum and its terrible you question the sincerity of cooksters input.

That's FN hilarious! "I know you are, but what am I" is a great comeback...for a two year old. I can be labeled a lot of things, disingenuous isn't one of them.

Cookster's post was completely insincere, I don't have to question it, its in type. Pretending like some one doesn't know something that they clearly know, for the sake of argument, is insincere. Cookster will be just fine fine without you protecting them.

 

[Ultrairon]

More great news.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Not going to feed the nonsense about sincerity and disingenuous. You are trying to bait me.

 

[Ultrairon]

You are missing the point entirely. Excess mortality estimates rely on a consistent baseline. Since flu season didn't happen in the last two winters, winter baseline deaths are skewed from the norm. That is why you would expect less mortality in Feb (as in 2021). Why that is not happening in 2022 is because the excess deaths caused by Covid.

You wrote, 'all restrictions should be enforced forever'. If you want your points to be clear, state them in a clear manner.

My prediction is that excess deaths over the next three months will parallel case counts as is mathematically inevitable with the IFR depending on many variables including vaccination rates and demographics. Covid has seasonal components, so case counts may continue to plateau or slowly decrease into the spring. But all those needless deaths are already banked. Any NPI kept up the last month wouldve lessened those numbers.

Imo it seems like Denmark had a plan that would work in a delta world, but refused to course correct when omicron took over, instead relying on the unscientific claim that it was mild because that was the expedient thing to say.

Netserk, go back to the beginning of this thread and see who has been correct about the threat of covid before a single person in the US was dead, the ineffectiveness of HCQ, the danger of the the unvaccinated in winter 2021-2. At all those times, I was called an alarmist too. And I was f** right. So spare me your sanctimonious labels.

I will go back and read some of your predictions. I sure hope you never posted up the 2 or 3 million a year death models though.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I will go back and read some of your predictions. I sure hope you never posted up the 2 or 3 million a year death models though.

The irony of this is that these models were off because they overestimated the IFR from the early CFR from China. Who was one of the people who was saying that the CFR is always skewed high early in a pandemc? Yep. Me..

 

[Ultrairon]

I would caution against taking half the world's population and multiplying by 2%. Swine flu reportedly infected about 20% of the world's population and it caused ~200,000 deaths. At this point, the incidence of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic patients with CoV is unknown. To use an analogy, we see the tip of the iceberg, but can't gauge it's depth.

A lot of viruses can remain dormant before reactivation. People on anti-retroviral therapy have undetectable levels of HIV in the blood, but it doesn't mean that they are cured. The 'reinfection' case in Japan agrees with observations of a similar phenomenon seen in China. It is just another hurdle to combating the spread of the virus.

Yes you were saying the CFR was skewed high early in the pandemic. I am reading so give me time. That is why I said I hope you never posted that.

 

[jmdirt]

More great news.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Not going to feed the nonsense about sincerity and disingenuous. You are trying to bait me.

Nope, no baiting , just stating a fact: you are one of the most disingenuous people ever on this forum. Case in point: "not going to feed the nonsense", you started the nonsense, but now you aren't part of because you are on higher ground. FAKE!

 

[Cookster15]

That's FN hilarious! "I know you are, but what am I" is a great comeback...for a two year old. I can be labeled a lot of things, disingenuous isn't one of them.

Cookster's post was completely insincere, I don't have to question it, its in type. Pretending like some one doesn't know something that they clearly know, for the sake of argument, is insincere. Cookster will be just fine fine without you protecting them.

Do not misrepresent me. My post was sincere and I didn’t mean to offend - that’s why I posted data. If I made an honest oversight then you should point that out.

 

[jmdirt]

Do not misrepresent me. My post was sincere and I didn’t mean to offend - that’s why I posted data. If I made an honest oversight then you should point that out.

I accept that.

Can you see why I would see it as insincere that you are posting data from my local news to prove your point? Like I wouldn't have read/heard that?

 

[jmdirt]

My company sent all employees (and sub contractors I think) an email survey about mask use. Mask 'requirements' are dropping away pretty quickly everywhere in Idaho/Boise so I assume that we are going to drop ours as well. The wording is a little funky, it might be as soon March first, but it also might be April first, I can't quite tell. They might have left it vague to give a little cushion to watch the numbers.

EDIT: Maybe June first?

 

[Oldermanish]

My company sent all employees (and sub contractors I think) an email survey about mask use. Mask 'requirements' are dropping away pretty quickly everywhere in Idaho/Boise so I assume that we are going to drop ours as well. The wording is a little funky, it might be as soon March first, but it also might be April first, I can't quite tell. They might have left it vague to give a little cushion to watch the numbers.

EDIT: Maybe June first?

The local Valley update would suggest even Hailey businesses are not fighting the attempt at normalcy. The planes are landing from far and wide while I type this so we may have something or nothing report after President's Day festivities.

 

[Cookster15]

I accept that.

Can you see why I would see it as insincere that you are posting data from my local news to prove your point? Like I wouldn't have read/heard that?

Thanks, we have had a healthy rapport here would be a shame to spoil that. I still don't really understand your point, but lets leave it there.

On my local situation (linked below) I was warned here about our immune naïve and relaxing restrictions too soon. Yet the hospitalization data is still trending downwards, although ICU patients have been stable for 4 days now.

Plus looking at new cases also falling like most other places in the world with omicron it seems inevitable that hospitalizations will continue to trend downwards. My optimism might be dented if a new variant arrives, then who knows. But if we look at each variant so far they seem to have become more transmissible but less virulent (be that due to vaccination, natural immunity or the virus itself).

For my state of NSW total cases recorded now stands at 1.24 million or about 15% of the population.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

 

[Koronin]

Thanks, we have had a healthy rapport here would be a shame to spoil that. I still don't really understand your point, but lets leave it there.

On my local situation (linked below) I was warned here about our immune naïve and relaxing restrictions too soon. Yet the hospitalization data is still trending downwards, although ICU patients have been stable for 4 days now (note these are total hospitalizations, not only Covid patients).

Plus looking at new cases also falling like most other places in the world with omicron it seems inevitable that hospitalizations will continue to trend downwards. My optimism might be dented if a new variant arrives, then who knows. But if we look at each variant so far they seem to have become more transmissible but less virulent (be that due to vaccination, natural immunity or the virus itself).

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

Well it would depend on if the new variant is more lethal than omicron or in the same category. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another variant show up at some point. The question is, it is more, the same, or less virulent. If it's the same or less, hopefully that means we are getting to a point of being endemic and that more normalcy will return.

 

[Cookster15]

Well it would depend on if the new variant is more lethal than omicron or in the same category. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another variant show up at some point. The question is, it is more, the same, or less virulent. If it's the same or less, hopefully that means we are getting to a point of being endemic and that more normalcy will return.

Yes that is the crux of it. My fingers are crossed!

 

[Koronin]

Yes that is the crux of it. My fingers are crossed!

Mine also.

 

[jmdirt]

Thanks, we have had a healthy rapport here would be a shame to spoil that. I still don't really understand your point, but lets leave it there.

On my local situation (linked below) I was warned here about our immune naïve and relaxing restrictions too soon. Yet the hospitalization data is still trending downwards, although ICU patients have been stable for 4 days now.

Plus looking at new cases also falling like most other places in the world with omicron it seems inevitable that hospitalizations will continue to trend downwards. My optimism might be dented if a new variant arrives, then who knows. But if we look at each variant so far they seem to have become more transmissible but less virulent (be that due to vaccination, natural immunity or the virus itself).

For my state of NSW total cases recorded now stands at 1.24 million or about 15% of the population.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

I don't read other location data except from those who post here so I wasn't the one who warned you about pending numbers*. Its already too much to keep up with Boise/Idaho/USA, I can't also add the rest of the world. Honestly, I don't keep track of the USA that much anymore because its too much.

* I remember that discussion, and it seemed that it made sense at the time, but I can't remember enough details to discuss it now.

EDIT: I obviously know the overall/total USA numbers because those are everywhere, but I don't know what regions or other states look like anymore.

 

[Cookster15]

I don't read other location data except from those who post here so I wasn't the one who warned you about pending numbers*. Its already too much to keep up with Boise/Idaho/USA, I can't also add the rest of the world. Honestly, I don't keep track of the USA that much anymore because its too much.

* I remember that discussion, and it seemed that it made sense at the time, but I can't remember enough details to discuss it now.

It was Baltimore. Agree it is too hard to keep up with other location data. Obviously there are localized variables but overall the trend for omicron globally seems similar no matter which country or location I look at.

 

[movingtarget]

Six African countries to begin making mRNA vaccines as part of WHO scheme

Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Tunisia first countries to be assisted by global mRNA hub

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

‘No light at the end’: How Hong Kong’s Covid response went so wrong

A policy of admitting every positive case to hospital means thousands are being added to an already huge backlog every day

www.theguardian.com

 

[Ultrairon]

‘No light at the end’: How Hong Kong’s Covid response went so wrong

A policy of admitting every positive case to hospital means thousands are being added to an already huge backlog every day

www.theguardian.com

That policy is stupid. It is the extreme of what a sample is being applied here in the USA.

 

[jmdirt]

Three Dose Regimen

 

[Keram]

‘No light at the end’: How Hong Kong’s Covid response went so wrong

A policy of admitting every positive case to hospital means thousands are being added to an already huge backlog every day

www.theguardian.com

It is example what can omicron do in imune naive population. Big mistake with not to vaccinate elderly. Their hospitalization policy seems bit ridiculous though.

 

[yaco]

That policy is stupid. It is the extreme of what a sample is being applied here in the USA.

It actually worked when they had low case numbers and undoubtedly saved lives - Obviously now HK will have to readjust their priorities.

 

[yaco]

It is example what can omicron do in imune naive population. Big mistake with not to vaccinate elderly. Their hospitalization policy seems bit ridiculous though.

The elderly have a low take up of vaccines for several reasons - There is the conservatism of HK medical practitioners who worry about the side effects of vaccines, especially RMA vaccines, hence the majority of the vaxxed elderly were jabbed with Sinovac which uses the tried and true dead virus method. You also find some of the elderly still have a belief in natural/alternative/Chinese medicines - Others, particularly in aged care are too fragile to be vaxxed - Unfortunately the Government is introducing a VAXX mandate on the 24th of February, however this is no incentive to the elderly who are not working or travelling and hardly visit a restaurant.

 

[yaco]

‘No light at the end’: How Hong Kong’s Covid response went so wrong

A policy of admitting every positive case to hospital means thousands are being added to an already huge backlog every day

www.theguardian.com

What the article fails to discuss is what seeded the outbreak - HK has followed a policy of 21 days quarantine for positive cases, even though there is no medical and scientific data to support this position - What happened is that an overseas arrival caught COVID from a cross-infection of a new arrival in the quarantine hotel, at the tail end of their stay. Un surprisingly their day 20 test was negative, so they were released. After this you are tested on day 24 and 27. The person's test on day 24 was positive, so they had been in the community for 4 days, and Omicron has spread like wildfire - The moral of the story is that if the HK authorities had followed the science ,then the person would have been in quarantine for seven days and not been cross-infected - In saying this it would have delayed the inevitable.

 

[djpbaltimore]

It was Baltimore. Agree it is too hard to keep up with other location data. Obviously there are localized variables but overall the trend for omicron globally seems similar no matter which country or location I look at.

And after I warned you about this, Australia had as many deaths in one month as it had in the first 20 months of the pandemic. And the amount of immune naive is still plenty to fuel a winter wave.