Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[jmdirt]

It was Baltimore. Agree it is too hard to keep up with other location data. Obviously there are localized variables but overall the trend for omicron globally seems similar no matter which country or location I look at.

dj has added more actual science to this thread than the rest of us combined, especially in the first year+. He and the model(s) that he was using were 'off' about what O would look like in Australia, that's a good thing right? Again, I can't remember the specifics of the conversation, but it makes sense that O should have had a much greater impact on Australia, but fortunately it didn't.

 

[jmdirt]

The local Valley update would suggest even Hailey businesses are not fighting the attempt at normalcy. The planes are landing from far and wide while I type this so we may have something or nothing report after President's Day festivities.

I saw a lot of 5B plates in Boise yesterday. They are either getting away from the influx of "last days of winter" people, or enjoying the sun and 50 degree temps, or both. Unfortunately, the trails are not OK yet (still hard freezing every night).

Sorry for the drift OT.

 

[yaco]

Ultimately, countries cant lock down or impose restrictions forever, especially countries that have high vaxx rates - Ultimately the people who unfortunately die are the unvaccinated ( and some of these cant be vaxxed for health reasons ) and then the vaxxed group of older people and those with co-morbidities - There's not much you can do with this group even if you VAXX them 100 times - Even the deaths in age care are hard to prevent when all employees are vaxxed and have regular COVID tests - We need Vaccines that do a better job of reducing transmission.

 

[Koronin]

Ultimately, countries cant lock down or impose restrictions forever, especially countries that have high vaxx rates - Ultimately the people who unfortunately are first the unvaccinated ( and some of these cant be vaxxed for health reasons ) and then the vaxxed group of older people and those with co-morbidities - There's not much you can do with this group even if you VAXX them 100 times - Even the deaths in age care are hard to prevent when all employees are vaxxed and have regular COVID tests - We need Vaccines that do a better job of reducing transmission.

There is some preventative help for immune compromised as long as it's more temporary. This what my husband received a week ago. It's an antibody treatment (which I posted about a few pages back). It's a new treatment and specifically for chemo patients. It may eventually be an option for other immune compromised people, but it appears it will remain specific for this group to supplement their immune system. Also it only lasts for around 6 to 9 months. Hence the reason it's specific for temporarily immune compromised people.

Don't know about vaccines that do better in reducing transmission or just flat out need some real treatments we can get that work very well from our local drug stores.

 

[jmdirt]

World Vaccination Numbers

 

[Cookster15]

And after I warned you about this, Australia had as many deaths in one month as it had in the first 20 months of the pandemic. And the amount of immune naive is still plenty to fuel a winter wave.

4,880 Australians have died of Covid since the pandemic commenced in early 2020.

Please check how many Australians died of influenza in the year of 1999 alone? And we were not widely vaccinated back then.

This is becoming endemic whether you wish to accept it or not.

 

[Cookster15]

dj has added more actual science to this thread than the rest of us combined, especially in the first year+. He and the model(s) that he was using were 'off' about what O would look like in Australia, that's a good thing right? Again, I can't remember the specifics of the conversation, but it makes sense that O should have had a much greater impact on Australia, but fortunately it didn't.

I agree about dj. But we can all cherry pick data and science that supports our views. "Fortunately it didn't" translates to the scientists got it wrong. The template used for setting policy in Australia was the Doherty model. That model has been proven so appallingly inaccurate (pessimistic) that nobody mentions it any more.

https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/Synthesis_DohertyModelling_FinalReport__NatCab05Nov.pdf

 

[jmdirt]

I agree about dj. But we can all cherry pick data and science that supports our views. "Fortunately it didn't" translates to the scientists got it wrong. The template used for setting policy in Australia was the Doherty model. That model has been proven so appealingly inaccurate (pessimistic) that nobody mentions it any more.

https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/Synthesis_DohertyModelling_FinalReport__NatCab05Nov.pdf

The statistics scientist got it wrong. I make that distinction because a certain faction of people use scientists as a collective term so if the stat scientists are wrong so are the epidemiologists, etc., its their way of discrediting all scientists I guess. Its hard to 'cherry pick' too much with SC2 because at least in the USA there are really only three main statistical models used (lots of others use those to form slightly modified predictions). Statistical prognostication is always a tough row to hoe, even more so with something novel.

 

[jmdirt]

4,880 Australians have died of Covid since the pandemic commenced in early 2020.

Please check how many Australians died of influenza in the year of 1999 alone? And we were not widely vaccinated back then.

This is becoming endemic whether you wish to accept it or not.

An average flu year in the USA is ~30,000 deaths. Just to do a little basic math: that would be 60,000 in two years. SC2 has killed ~900,000 in two years. Even if we use extreme (recent ) years, 52,000 x 2 = 104,000. There really isn't much comparison in the USA.

 

[djpbaltimore]

4,880 Australians have died of Covid since the pandemic commenced in early 2020.

Please check how many Australians died of influenza in the year of 1999 alone? And we were not widely vaccinated back then.

This is becoming endemic whether you wish to accept it or not.

I am curious about one thing. When restrictions were dropped, did people in charge tell the public that the death toll would double in a month? That is the big problem I have with people forcing 'normal' conditions on the public. They are not being transparent with what that means.

I have published influenza research, so I know the stats. My main argument is that we are going to make the same public health mistakes with covid as we have made with influenza. Getting so casual with the disease that we let so many unnecessary deaths occur.

It becoming endemic isn't in doubt. This what I wrote in July 2020. Seems pretty accurate in retrospect.

Any pathogen with an animal reservoir is effectively impossible to eradicate. Ebola is in this class. Unclear where this one fits, but I doubt we will get past COVID-19 as a society any time soon. But I am reading good things about the vaccine candidates. We can get a lot closer to normal than where we are at now. Once you start developing some immunity, the outbreaks will shrink a lot. Sporadic infections will be with us as long as most of us are alive IMO. Once something hits 200 countries, it is going to be endemic somewhere.

 

[movingtarget]

Countries like Australia and New Zealand were always going to come out of a pandemic in better shape than most other countries simply due to their geographical isolation and population density even in the bigger cities and lock downs showed they were effective in that type of environment at least until Omicron arrived. Even with a certain amount of political ineptitude and policy dithering it still didn't reach the state of some of the more politically unstable countries. The more conservative approach generally has worked so far even though the flare ups in aged care upset some people but you also have to approach aged care with a certain amount of realism regarding how vulnerable their residents generally are to any sort of disease outbreak and how hard it is to keep them totally isolated. Half the time it was the carers themselves spreading the virus.

The USA has 52 state governments while Australia has 8 with the bulk of its population on one coastline with huge distances between most major cities. The volatility of US politics currently, also didn't help. Even if some of the Australian states had a slightly different approach, most of them were similar even though some border closures lasted longer than others but politics for the most part didn't play a big role in the effectiveness of the pandemic response. Not sure the USA and some other countries can say the same. But in hindsight I'm sure that even countries like Australia realize that some aspects of their response could have have been done much better.

 

[jmdirt]

I'm sharing this because it kind of what is going on inside my head sometimes:
Which one?

 

[movingtarget]

I'm sharing this because it kind of what is going on inside my head sometimes:
Which one?

Needs a 4th option at least...........

 

[djpbaltimore]

I know RFK has gone off the deep end on vaccines, but he also dabbles in hiv denialism in his latest book. I only started looking into this when I saw Peter Duesberg on the list below. Yikes. This guy is one of the biggest reasons for low vaccine rates in this country.

At one point he calls the hiv-causes-aids idea 'state theology' driven by Fauci and his 'clergy' of scientist 'PI army'. This is why all the Fauci critiques are so laughable. They are just so patently bad faith.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1495564380381093888

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Debunk_the_Funk/status/1495564380381093888

 

[Ultrairon]

South African case numbers still going down. That is 2 weeks trending down. Where is that bump?

South Africa: the latest coronavirus counts, charts and maps

Tracking the COVID-19 outbreak, updated daily

graphics.reuters.com

Hospitalization trends down also.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[Unchained]

When the facts are that it is improving, you claim the debate is not sincere?

I do enjoy myopic milestones,2+ years in multiple variants,still high deaths in the U.S.,@62% of world vaccinated and closing ceremonies message to the world..please give us access to the vaccine. Kind of..I got mine so everything is ok..and that pesky Bill Gates guy that predicted this,is forecasting another..way way too many things that sound like mission accomplished..which by any measuring is @38% of the world's population getting access

 

[jmdirt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1490703191712825345

View: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1490703191712825345

https://twitter.com/x/status/1492946453513138177

View: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492946453513138177

 

[Koronin]

This is US specific about basically who is dying from Covid. Which unsurprisingly is overwhelmingly unvaccinated people.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/dying-covid-still-mainly-unvaccinated-090546286.html

 

[djpbaltimore]

Besides the obvious antivaxxers, the people most responsible for the suffering of others are those who were against masking.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1495771405035712516

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/meganranney/status/1495771405035712516

 

[Ultrairon]

I do enjoy myopic milestones,2+ years in multiple variants,still high deaths in the U.S.,@62% of world vaccinated and closing ceremonies message to the world..please give us access to the vaccine. Kind of..I got mine so everything is ok..and that pesky Bill Gates guy that predicted this,is forecasting another..way way too many things that sound like mission accomplished..which by any measuring is @38% of the world's population getting access

When you start using Bill Gates as anything other than a operating system or software person then its not worth a discussion.

 

[Ultrairon]

Twitter sources. Not reliable location for information.

 

[Cookster15]

I am curious about one thing. When restrictions were dropped, did people in charge tell the public that the death toll would double in a month? That is the big problem I have with people forcing 'normal' conditions on the public. They are not being transparent with what that means.

I have published influenza research, so I know the stats. My main argument is that we are going to make the same public health mistakes with covid as we have made with influenza. Getting so casual with the disease that we let so many unnecessary deaths occur.

It becoming endemic isn't in doubt. This what I wrote in July 2020. Seems pretty accurate in retrospect.

To answer your question, yes they did. Actually the models (e.g. Doherty) said it would be much worse than double. People are simply fed up. But also Australia never saw the carnage of America or Europe hence the different public attitudes.

But the lower deaths were primarily due to our geographic isolation and quickly closing the international borders rather than lockdowns or vaccines. It still got out of control in the state of Victoria in 2020 then again in NSW in late 2021.

But glad you mentioned the flu. Australia still hasn’t approached the deaths in the 1999 flu season which relates to my point on it becoming endemic.

 

[Unchained]

Dirt,Ultra and others make many points that have established math available. Dirt revisiting some early Covid comparisons..when there were frequent influenza characteristics and infection and death numbers..Covid has a 2+ year track record in the US and the world that commands a different level of respect,response and concern that flu doesn't..the @30,000 a year dead from influenza in the states was surpassed by Covid in weeks.
variants are concerning to anyone paying attention.
but as a rule Ultra comes to post something profound and revealing, of the up most importance, rejecting aid,advice and established science,not based on the message,but instead summarily rejecting the messenger. The idea that another pandemic is going to occur is accepted by rational thinkers, needed infrastructure and strategies for current and future pandemic particular issues,again almost universal agreement by anyone not asleep.
US specific, the facilities failures are everywhere you look, not enough doctors,hospitals,bed capacity,care givers for average health crisis conditions, rampant obesity,hypertension,heart disease were at emergency levels before pandemic..and nothing drastic,dramatic has been done to combat those issues that were daily deadly contributions to death,destruction and long Covid complications..
if anyone has 100's of millions of dollars to help with one or more of these critical life issues we should welcome their help in time of national security emergency..or as correctly described a couple of years ago..a war. During wartime drastic measures are needed

 

[Cookster15]

Countries like Australia and New Zealand were always going to come out of a pandemic in better shape than most other countries simply due to their geographical isolation and population density even in the bigger cities and lock downs showed they were effective in that type of environment at least until Omicron arrived. Even with a certain amount of political ineptitude and policy dithering it still didn't reach the state of some of the more politically unstable countries. The more conservative approach generally has worked so far even though the flare ups in aged care upset some people but you also have to approach aged care with a certain amount of realism regarding how vulnerable their residents generally are to any sort of disease outbreak and how hard it is to keep them totally isolated. Half the time it was the carers themselves spreading the virus.

The USA has 52 state governments while Australia has 8 with the bulk of its population on one coastline with huge distances between most major cities. The volatility of US politics currently, also didn't help. Even if some of the Australian states had a slightly different approach, most of them were similar even though some border closures lasted longer than others but politics for the most part didn't play a big role in the effectiveness of the pandemic response. Not sure the USA and some other countries can say the same. But in hindsight I'm sure that even countries like Australia realize that some aspects of their response could have have been done much better.

Agree re omicron and aged care. But if there was a single factor that contributed more than any other to Australia avoiding the carnage of Europe and America it was quickly stopping incoming flights from China and Iran. At this time in early 2020 the virus was spreading through Europe and the US. In fact, it had already arrived in these places before the WHO declared a pandemic but that has been discussed here long ago.

What happened in the Australian states of Victoria in 2020 and NSW in 2021 shows that geographical isolation and population density are not the primary determining factors. Covid can still quickly get out of control. Inner city Sydney is equally as dense as Melbourne yet Sydney didn't see anything like Victoria's 800 deaths. So I don't give any credence to claims that population density is a major factor.

Agree America's 50 (52?) states makes it impossible to set uniform policies. Australia experienced similar but of course on a lessor scale - example Western Australia and Queensland. NSW also kept international borders open and was processing hundreds of returning travelers bound for Queensland and Victoria. But the small village mentality highlighted by Yaco here has been alive and well in some states and is behind the different approaches of the states.

 

[jmdirt]

Twitter sources. Not reliable location for information.

Nature is one of the links you are saying that isn't worth reading. That's FUNNY!

When a respected scientist posts links to solid/peer reviewed research, it doesn't matter if its on twitter, follow the link to the research. Many scientist and doctors have used social media to get information out to people who don't read journals.

You didn't even look at the links, you just wanted to make a snarky post (expected from you).