Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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So what is the prediction for excess mortality in the next three months here (given that we'll continue without restrictions)? How harsh NPIs would be needed to significantly lower that, and what burdens would they bring?
It's a medical mosaic..not mortality alone,not cases stand alone statistics..it's everything together and as significant as Covid is there are many other health outcomes that are determined by a Covid clog up of health care delivery systems. Even complicated child birth has been effected for simply bed space issues,heart attack patients or people w chest pain have been effected by Covid. So using only one or two binary metrics..deaths are at XXX number so everything is good or bad is not efficient. Many places in the United States have a effective scientific approach in place..w metrics including population density,percentage of overall vaccinated,community infection and death,hospital admissions..but no major decisions made on number of dead alone.
building your wheels w 7 or 8 speed spacing..set out on a mission using partial or old data..and for now,we should logically plan for another variant..that is not doomsday,just logical next step. The mission accomplished message coast is clear,get back to normal is way way premature,given current metrics, those measurements tell us that we don't have doctors,nurses,hospitals in place.
 
Some context, 4,600 Australians have died, but 4,600 Idahoans have died...little podunk (~1.8 mil) Idaho has the same number of deaths as your entire country (~25 mil). 921,000 deaths for the USA! Facts...
Except the point I have made clear is trends. Nobody denies the tragedy of those who have died with Covid to date. But what is the pandemic trend in Idaho? Hospitalizations, ICUs, deaths. I would be surprised if it wasn't a positive trend. It is easy to cherry pick the negative or see everything as glass half empty.
 
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Except the point I have made clear is trends. Nobody denies the tragedy of those who have died with Covid to date. But what is the pandemic trend in Idaho? Hospitalizations, ICUs, deaths. I would be surprised if it wasn't a positive trend. It is easy to cherry pick the negative or see everything as glass half empty.
My point is that we have been hammered by death. One small population state has as much death as your entire country. The 'trend' is improving. but that doesn't erase what has happened. Mental/emotional pounding!

EDIT: I was as optimistic as you in June of 21...so much for that huh?
 
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So what is the prediction for excess mortality in the next three months here (given that we'll continue without restrictions)? How harsh NPIs would be needed to significantly lower that, and what burdens would they bring?
As soon as you start talking about burdens or tradeoffs, you are starting a different discussion from the one we were having.

Maybe have a listen and find out his arguments.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/inthebubblepod/status/1493355622988845060
 
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On the US front we still have pockets of folks that rely heavily on...."faith" and a whole lot of desperate rhetoric. Google what pastor Greg Locke in Tennessee had to say when some followers thought maybe they should consider vaccination after the former president encouraged that path in a women's group.
Witch hunt....
Hard to say what the arc of trend is when areas of a country believe everything they're told.
 
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If there were no tradeoffs, no burdens, no costs, obviously all restrictions should be enforced forever, so tradeoffs were always a part of the discussion. The costs are the very reason why the restrictions have been lifted.

I'm asking what effect you'd expect NPIs to have at this stage, and what the consequences you expect now that we won't have any. I see no specific predictions, no estimations of the size the impact of no restrictions will have. I've only seen vague general alarmism.

If the burden of hospitalisations from covid has peaked, excess mortality too, then it's clear that covid is no longer a critical systemic threat. While excess mortality of course doesn't capture all the ills from covid, it is the single best indicator of the impact from the disease and how well it is handled. It doesn't depend on the number of tests and it catches all second and third order effects.

All restrictions were lifted 1st of February, and the impact of that has thus not yet had an effect on the graph below, but how significant a rise do you expect from here on?


Notice that Denmark has been back to baseline ever since we were past the Delta deaths?
 
Some context, 4,600 Australians have died, but 4,600 Idahoans have died...little podunk (~1.8 mil) Idaho has the same number of deaths as your entire country (~25 mil). 921,000 deaths for the USA! Facts...
Agree what has occurred in Idaho is tragic and I understand all that. But is the trend in Idaho improving or not?

I see the 7 day average new covid cases in Idaho is down to 1,665 - a 42% fall on the peak of late January. Idaho daily covid deaths are down far more compared to the peak back on Oct 21.

Then I noticed this article:
Today in Idaho hospitals and COVID-19 (updated 2/15): Patients, ERs, ICUs - Idaho Capital Sun

Idaho Health and Welfare Director Dave Jeppesen on Tuesday announced that the southwestern and south-central regions of the state are no longer critically overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients and a shortage of staff and blood supplies
So even in Idaho there should be cause for optimism by health workers. Looking globally it seems clear to me omicron is way less severe than delta and delta was less severe than the original variant.

In my location, I see that after an aberration on Feb 14, number of patients hospitalized is still trending downwards - as are cases. There are currently 1,478 patients hospitalized with Covid which is 171 fewer than two days ago. The peak was 2,943 on Jan 25.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live
 
Agree what has occurred in Idaho is tragic and I understand all that. But is the trend in Idaho improving or not?

I see the 7 day average new covid cases in Idaho is down to 1,665 - a 42% fall on the peak of late January. Idaho daily covid deaths are down far more compared to the peak back on Oct 21.

Then I noticed this article:
Today in Idaho hospitals and COVID-19 (updated 2/15): Patients, ERs, ICUs - Idaho Capital Sun



So even in Idaho there should be cause for optimism by health workers. Looking globally it seems clear to me omicron is way less severe than delta and delta was less severe than the original variant.

In my location, I see that after an aberration on Feb 14, number of patients hospitalized is still trending downwards - as are cases. There are currently 1,478 patients hospitalized with Covid which is 171 fewer than two days ago. The peak was 2,943 on Jan 25.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live
I'm going to jump out of this debate because it clearly isn't sincere.
 
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If there were no tradeoffs, no burdens, no costs, obviously all restrictions should be enforced forever, so tradeoffs were always a part of the discussion. The costs are the very reason why the restrictions have been lifted.

I'm asking what effect you'd expect NPIs to have at this stage, and what the consequences you expect now that we won't have any. I see no specific predictions, no estimations of the size the impact of no restrictions will have. I've only seen vague general alarmism.

If the burden of hospitalisations from covid has peaked, excess mortality too, then it's clear that covid is no longer a critical systemic threat. While excess mortality of course doesn't capture all the ills from covid, it is the single best indicator of the impact from the disease and how well it is handled. It doesn't depend on the number of tests and it catches all second and third order effects.

All restrictions were lifted 1st of February, and the impact of that has thus not yet had an effect on the graph below, but how significant a rise do you expect from here on?


Notice that Denmark has been back to baseline ever since we were past the Delta deaths?
You do realize that the effect of a change on February 1 would not manifest in statistics until at least 4 weeks, right? Secondly, deaths last year in February were 20% below normal, so it is dubious that your baseline is accurate. Changing endemic flu numbers are going to alter deaths in February from a traditional baseline. So, I would suggest that you are already experiencing excess deaths.

Too bad there are absolutely no alternatives in between carte blanche and perpetual lockdown. Netserk, that is a poor argument. Maybe wait to remove restrictions until all people are eligible to be vaxxed? Or better than 75% with a booster?

Funny how citing official stats is now considered alarmism. Listen....Denmark has been a model nation for most of the pandemic, but just like Australia, I think you have not handled omicron well. We don't know all the long-term effects of covid. Look at the increase in heart issues that was just released last week. Now is not the time to be cavalier because your hospitals can 'handle' it.
 
Except the point I have made clear is trends. Nobody denies the tragedy of those who have died with Covid to date. But what is the pandemic trend in Idaho? Hospitalizations, ICUs, deaths. I would be surprised if it wasn't a positive trend. It is easy to cherry pick the negative or see everything as glass half empty.
So we're at the stretch of the Valley with 3 small towns in a line. Bellevue/South, Hailey/Mid Valley, Ketchum/North. The mayors of town North and South have released retail mask requirements. Hailey's retail, political and social environment are concerned because President's Day weekend is coming up. People from all over the world with no concerns about documentation, TSA reviews or regard for the people that live here will land waves of private jets to ski and party. This has been the pattern for the last few years and the retail and hospitality folks find out what it's like to miss work and pay in the wake of the after party. Cookster: do your due diligence and see what the trends are starting from February 21st thru March 12th. Bear in mind you'll check your data 3 weeks after that period because the current backlog of test results equals the entire population of the Valley and every town from here to Boise.
Most of the people living and working here would pass the consideration of stereotypical analysts: they are fit and fabulous people working out in the mountains and the gyms. I have no idea what the outcome will be but in Hailey they are wearing masks while serving drinks to people for the next month. Ketchum has no mandate but the service industry is thrice-shy on the impact of reckless rich Americans and internationals. All very confident partiers. I'll try to get some pictures for the files.
 
You do realize that the effect of a change on February 1 would not manifest in statistics until at least 4 weeks, right? Secondly, deaths last year in February were 20% below normal, so it is dubious that your baseline is accurate. Changing endemic flu numbers are going to alter deaths in February from a traditional baseline. So, I would suggest that you are already experiencing excess deaths.

Too bad there are absolutely no alternatives in between carte blanche and perpetual lockdown. Netserk, that is a poor argument. Maybe wait to remove restrictions until all people are eligible to be vaxxed? Or better than 75% with a booster?

Funny how citing official stats is now considered alarmism. Listen....Denmark has been a model nation for most of the pandemic, but just like Australia, I think you have not handled omicron well. We don't know all the long-term effects of covid. Look at the increase in heart issues that was just released last week. Now is not the time to be cavalier because your hospitals can 'handle' it.
Why shouldn't mortality be down 20 % in the end of February last year (at that point our daily average of covid deaths were ~5, and the expected total number of deaths ~165 per day)? How well aware are you of the Danish context (timing of the different restrictions, how people here behave, how our healthcare works etc.)? Excess mortality catches all the second order effects of restrictions and covid, including flu, traffic etc.

If you read my post entirely, you would see that I didn't claim the removal of restrictions had any effects on excess mortality yet, and my question to you was about the effect it would have over the next three months. It's no worse or better if people die of the flu instead of covid, when it comes to public health it all counts.

Then you keep misrepresenting me. I didn't paint it black/white (if so you are welcome to quote that, and if you lack context for how to interpret it, I will try to provide it), my point was simply that if there were no downsides, obviously there would be no need to remove any restrictions (that's a pretty trivial deduction).

Any additional vaccinations here at this point will only have a marginal effect (while still welcome), given the distribution of them at present as I have already showed you. ~97 % of everyone retired are boosted here. The only ones not eligible are under 5 years of age, I can't see any reason why their vaccine status should affect the level of restrictions. 75 % of the whole population boosted is obviously way, way more than what you are going to see most countries ever achieving, so they should never lift all the restrictions?

Quoting figures out of context (like when there are different definitions in play in different countries) and with the warning that things are going really bad is alarmism. Make clear, falsifiable predictions; don't just gesture that now bad things will happen.
 
When the facts are that it is improving, you claim the debate is not sincere?
No, when cookster lists facts that I clearly already know (already typed even), that is not sincere. "Let me show you your local news." Yah, because I did already read that right?

Its interesting that one of the most disingenuous people to ever visit the forum is the one to question the sincerity of a debate (that you aren't even part of). Plus, cookster posted facts from MSM, shouldn't you call them out for that? Or is MSM only bad when it doesn't agree with you?
 
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No, when cookster lists facts that I clearly already know (already typed even), that is not sincere. "Let me show you your local news." Yah, because I did already read that right?

Its interesting that one of the most disingenuous people to ever visit the forum is the one to question the sincerity of a debate (that you aren't even part of). Plus, cookster posted facts from MSM, shouldn't you call them out for that? Or is MSM only bad when it doesn't agree with you?
The discussion and info from cookster seemed sincere. You obviously have a different opinion.
I disagree with your statement. You are the most disingenuous person to ever visit the forum and its terrible you question the sincerity of cooksters input.
 
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Why shouldn't mortality be down 20 % in the end of February last year (at that point our daily average of covid deaths were ~5, and the expected total number of deaths ~165 per day)? How well aware are you of the Danish context (timing of the different restrictions, how people here behave, how our healthcare works etc.)? Excess mortality catches all the second order effects of restrictions and covid, including flu, traffic etc.

If you read my post entirely, you would see that I didn't claim the removal of restrictions had any effects on excess mortality yet, and my question to you was about the effect it would have over the next three months. It's no worse or better if people die of the flu instead of covid, when it comes to public health it all counts.

Then you keep misrepresenting me. I didn't paint it black/white (if so you are welcome to quote that, and if you lack context for how to interpret it, I will try to provide it), my point was simply that if there were no downsides, obviously there would be no need to remove any restrictions (that's a pretty trivial deduction).

Any additional vaccinations here at this point will only have a marginal effect (while still welcome), given the distribution of them at present as I have already showed you. ~97 % of everyone retired are boosted here. The only ones not eligible are under 5 years of age, I can't see any reason why their vaccine status should affect the level of restrictions. 75 % of the whole population boosted is obviously way, way more than what you are going to see most countries ever achieving, so they should never lift all the restrictions?

Quoting figures out of context (like when there are different definitions in play in different countries) and with the warning that things are going really bad is alarmism. Make clear, falsifiable predictions; don't just gesture that now bad things will happen.
You are missing the point entirely. Excess mortality estimates rely on a consistent baseline. Since flu season didn't happen in the last two winters, winter baseline deaths are skewed from the norm. That is why you would expect less mortality in Feb (as in 2021). Why that is not happening in 2022 is because the excess deaths caused by Covid.

You wrote, 'all restrictions should be enforced forever'. If you want your points to be clear, state them in a clear manner.

My prediction is that excess deaths over the next three months will parallel case counts as is mathematically inevitable with the IFR depending on many variables including vaccination rates and demographics. Covid has seasonal components, so case counts may continue to plateau or slowly decrease into the spring. But all those needless deaths are already banked. Any NPI kept up the last month wouldve lessened those numbers.

Imo it seems like Denmark had a plan that would work in a delta world, but refused to course correct when omicron took over, instead relying on the unscientific claim that it was mild because that was the expedient thing to say.

Netserk, go back to the beginning of this thread and see who has been correct about the threat of covid before a single person in the US was dead, the ineffectiveness of HCQ, the danger of the the unvaccinated in winter 2021-2. At all those times, I was called an alarmist too. And I was f** right. So spare me your sanctimonious labels.
 
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