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Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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Its important not to dismiss the DOE. They were brought into the investigation because they have syber surveillance on par with all of the agencies (for obvious reasons). They add one more 'view' of the information, and likely unique information. But concluding with low confidence means that they couldn't uncover significant evidence.

Have the intelligence agencies of other countries made a conclusion yet? Let's don't put all of the eggs in the USA's investigation basket.

It is possible that a lab leak occurred, but that has to be supported with HIGH confidence.
 
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jmdirt

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Michelada said:
Came so far and previously any talk about a lab leak got all banned from social media. Now you want High confidence. Amazing the FBI has more than that low confidence their statement today. "FBI director says COVID pandemic 'most likely' originated from Chinese lab"

lets just say it is what it is along with the eggs. Come so far to see this had to wait 3 years for any semblance of the truth.
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Yes, I want high confidence. Everyone should. 'Most likely' isn't enough (either way).

Correct, the FBI has moderate confidence as I stated above.

The FBI made their conclusion in 2021 (about 15 months after they started investigating, so not 3 years).
 
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yaco

Jun 20, 2015
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movingtarget said:
Hong Kong ends its mask mandate after 945 days.
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I was expecting to see around 30 to 40% wearing masks on day one but I was surprised it was around 70%.

HK had no choice because UNSURPRISINGLY they could not attract in-bound tourists because of the mask mandate - And it's also Rugby Seven's at the end of the month - Finally, today HK started their promotion of 500,000 free tickets to boost tourism.
 
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Oldermanish

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jmdirt said:
Yes, I want high confidence. Everyone should. 'Most likely' isn't enough (either way).

Correct, the FBI has moderate confidence as I stated above.

The FBI made their conclusion in 2021 (about 15 months after they started investigating, so not 3 years).
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World ending wars start from these situations. How China values and manages their own population says alot about their view of international responsibility. That they'd know very early and not share pertinent data shouldn't surprise anyone.
They are close to a pariah state if evidence does show that they knowingly allowed the spread without advising health organizations until too late. My guess is the US may leverage that implied knowledge if it saves lives via "peaceful" policy. Risky game playing out, though.
 
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jmdirt

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Determining that it was a lab leak (accidental or intentional) actually makes it much easier to address moving forward. But clearly it isn't easy/obvious to determine because not only has the USA been unable to do it, no other intelligence agency (national or international) has been able to do it (yet).

Natural origin is lot messier moving forward if that is what is determined.

The international repercussions/relationships of a lab leak are a lot messier though.
 
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jmdirt

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Oldermanish said:
World ending wars start from these situations. How China values and manages their own population says alot about their view of international responsibility. That they'd know very early and not share pertinent data shouldn't surprise anyone.
They are close to a pariah state if evidence does show that they knowingly allowed the spread without advising health organizations until too late. My guess is the US may leverage that implied knowledge if it saves lives via "peaceful" policy. Risky game playing out, though.
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Yes, I can only imagine what the 'end result' will be if any country says without a doubt that it was a lab leak, especially so if it is the USA.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

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jmdirt said:
Determining that it was a lab leak (accidental or intentional) actually makes it much easier to address moving forward. But clearly it isn't easy/obvious to determine because not only has the USA been unable to do it, no other intelligence agency (national or international) has been able to do it (yet).

Natural origin is lot messier moving forward if that is what is determined.

The international repercussions/relationships of a lab leak are a lot messier though.
Click to expand...
Lab accident or purely natural origin, either way I think both risks are not currently managed well enough, nor do I expect that going forward. We know both have happened in the past (an example), and the potential global consequences (especially the tail risk) are so much greater than the local consequences that it's unlikely to be properly accounted for.
 
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Keram

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Should we still call it pandemic? I know it will never disapear but it is very much under control now. Winter was kinda harsh with respiratory ilnesses but no such collapse came as in previous waves and there is no serious mitigations. It is treated like a flu nowdays.
 
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jmdirt

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Keram said:
Should we still call it pandemic? I know it will never disapear but it is very much under control now. Winter was kinda harsh with respiratory ilnesses but no such collapse came as in previous waves and there is no serious mitigations. It is treated like a flu nowdays.
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How scientists (and/or public health officials) define it is somewhat irrelevant to how the public views it/reacts in todays' world. That said, there are parameter in place for the various 'demic' levels.

There are still 300-350 people a day dying in the USA (it dropped every week through Feb so that's good news). Just 5 years ago that would not have been acceptable to 90% of the population, but for many reasons, it is acceptable now. By any measure, its still an epidemic in the USA. For comparison, less than 10 people a day die of influenza. Influenza is more season than SC2 at this point also.

To answer your question, if other countries are also still having epidemics, it is still a pandemic.
 
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jmdirt

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Keram said:
Well, last time I checked deaths are below 1/10 of peaks and cases are also low so I assumed every country maybe with some exceptions are at pretty low "non-epidemic" stage.
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I don't think that we can use the SC2 peaks as 'the chart' because they pretty much blew the charts to smithereens.

Based on the numbers I posted above, I would say that the USA is still in an epidemic.
60,000 deaths from influenza in 2017/2018 was an epidemic*, so surely 125,000 deaths a year from SC2 is an epidemic now.

*If I remember correctly, they declared it an epidemic after 40,000.

Flu season aren't measure by calendar years, but SC2 still is (that does seem to be shifting though?).

EDIT: Maybe about a year ago someone (maybe dj) linked a document that defined 'demic' by numbers.
 
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Oldermanish

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jmdirt said:
I don't think that we can use the SC2 peaks as 'the chart' because they pretty much blew the charts to smithereens.

Based on the numbers I posted above, I would say that the USA is still in an epidemic.
60,000 deaths from influenza in 2017/2018 was an epidemic*, so surely 125,000 deaths a year from SC2 is an epidemic now.

*If I remember correctly, they declared it an epidemic after 40,000.

Flu season aren't measure by calendar years, but SC2 still is (that does seem to be shifting though?).

EDIT: Maybe about a year ago someone (maybe dj) linked a document that defined 'demic' by numbers.
Click to expand...
Seems like the early counter argument about Covid's longevity is not an issue. That "old, sick people" that "actually died of other causes" doesn't get brought up as much. Mostly because most of those folks succumbed. Still; the numbness to it's risk is why we have spikes here around every big tourist weekend. The relatively high vaccination numbers here could contribute to the lower mortality outcomes. I haven't had it since last June so I admittedly don't think about it much but do test if I feel it necessary.
 
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Unchained

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Netserk said:
For good reason. A quick glance at all-cause mortality was enough to dismiss it.

The only other clearly noticeable event in the time period is the Great Leap Forward: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/births-and-deaths-projected-to-2100
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The data sets are not.. Never again agreement as to data gathering criteria.
. So in the US.. had an underlying condition, died from it.but also had active or Covid exposure, subjective classification could have you in the Covid casualty category..

China is listing.. even today that they have only had a couple of school buses of Covid deaths because of the criteria they use.
.pretty sure China has more dead from spicy soup and bad egg rolls than Covid according to government math..Young and old..
 
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Netserk

Netserk

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Unchained said:
The data sets are not.. Never again agreement as to data gathering criteria.
. So in the US.. had an underlying condition, died from it.but also had active or Covid exposure, subjective classification could have you in the Covid casualty category..

China is listing.. even today that they have only had a couple of school buses of Covid deaths because of the criteria they use.
.pretty sure China has more dead from spicy soup and bad egg rolls than Covid according to government math..Young and old..
Click to expand...
Well, that is why I wrote all-cause mortality.
 
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jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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jmdirt said:
I don't think that we can use the SC2 peaks as 'the chart' because they pretty much blew the charts to smithereens.

Based on the numbers I posted above, I would say that the USA is still in an epidemic.
60,000 deaths from influenza in 2017/2018 was an epidemic*, so surely 125,000 deaths a year from SC2 is an epidemic now.

*If I remember correctly, they declared it an epidemic after 40,000.

Flu season aren't measure by calendar years, but SC2 still is (that does seem to be shifting though?).

EDIT: Maybe about a year ago someone (maybe dj) linked a document that defined 'demic' by numbers.
Click to expand...
I'll reply to myself to add an EDIT: Covid deaths in 2022= 267,000. That's an epidemic. Looking forward numbers are tending down so far...two months into 2023.

EDIT: I corrected my date typo.
 
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