Why would vulnerable people not be able to get vaccinated? They are the ones with most to lose, and I would guess the government would make the vaccine available for them (and health care workers) first.
Because some people can't get vaccinated for health reasons, and some of those people will also be vulnerable to covid-19.Why would vulnerable people not be able to get vaccinated? They are the ones with most to lose, and I would guess the government would make the vaccine available for them (and health care workers) first.
The real victims of this pandemic were likely the 450-odd people who came down with Guillain-Barre syndrome, a rare neurological disorder, after getting the 1976 flu shot. On its website, the CDC notes that people who got the vaccination did have an increased risk of “approximately one additional case of GBS for every 100,000 people who got the swine flu vaccine.”
I only wish your reasonable reasoning was the basis for the decisions made by people not to get vaccinated. Flu vaccine is a pivot point in health care in the US. Seasonal flu and the rotation of offered shots are not 100% effective..and in our past not getting a flu shot was not life or death, for the vast majority that will remain true. This seasonal flu and the one ahead of us 2020-2021 the vaccinations will play in a bigger role in every community. If you get or give common flu, whoever is effected will be more compromised for a Covid19 negative outcome.Because some people can't get vaccinated for health reasons, and some of those people will also be vulnerable to covid-19.
More explanation of what you mean please...I don't think waiting a few months is going to accomplish anything. Such short-term impact is likely to have been detected in the trials, and side effects could show up years down the line anyway. And regardless, you are not likely to be among the first to receive a vaccine. Waiting would do little more than increase the risk for vulnerable people who can't get vaccinated.
People who can't get vaccinated themselves for health reasons are typically still protected by herd immunity. Refusing to get vaccinated hurts herd immunity, increasing the risk for those people.More explanation of what you mean please...
The figure cited by the CDC would be along the lines of the 1957 Asian flu pandemic:Of course. Every scientist wants to publish a study that definitely shows an effect, or definitely rules out an effect. The data here--the relatively small number of positives for the youngest groups, plus the lack of a normal distribution--make that very difficult. But I think Drosten should have emphasized this, rather than implying that his study clearly indicated that children have viral loads as high as older people. You can say, the study provides no evidence that children have lower loads, rather than, we should assume that children are just as infectious as adults.
As I noted earlier, the analysis using the second classification, actually found the highest mean viral load for the grade school students. Drosten never points this out, though for anyone looking at the means, it sticks out like a sore thumb. Why is that one group so high? There were only 16 subjects, 15 - more than 100 times fewer than for the older age groups. This is the kind of outlier you can get when you work with small sample sizes.
You could lump the first two groups together. That would provide a larger sample size and a smaller standard error. Just doing a rough calculation, I find a mean of 4.74. a SE of 0.16, and 95% confidence limits of 4.42 - 5.06. The upper bound of that is lower than the lower bound of all the other groups except 5, 8 and 10, with 10 being ruled out because of small sample size. And if you lumped all eight of the older groups together (just do 7, the oldest group is way too small, and the numbers it does provide indicate it's about the same as the other seven, anyway), you get a mean of 5.26, a SE of around 0.03, and 95% limits of 5.20-5.32.
Statisticians would probably say that's an arbitrary comparison, but 20 is about the age when humans reach physical and mental maturity. i think it's entirely reasonable to compare people below that age with people above. The ten year groups Drosten uses are arbitrary, too. Suppose we use five 20 year groups instead?
1-20: 4.42 - 5.06
21-40: 5.12 - 5.34
41-60: 5.02 - 5.24
61-80: 5.10 - 5.34
81-100: 5.12 - 5.52
Complete separation between 1-20 and all the other 20 year groups except 41-60, which is really close,.
Yes, that's an important point. But probably there are multiple factors involved. Just a high viral load could be due to several. factors, including time in relation to symptoms, and infectivity could be due to other factors than high viral load. We really don't know if certain individuals are super-spreaders because of intrinsic characteristics, or if it was just a chance event.
Except that every major country that has estimated prevalence of infection has come up with a far higher estimate (than the 0.26% cited by CDC):
Spain: 1.1%
France: 0.70%
Netherlands: 0.67%
Belgium: 0.65%
Sweden: 0.47%
Denmark: 0.38%
Wrt the flu, in 2017-18, one of the worst recent seasons, the U.S. mortality rates were:
18-49: 0.02%
50-65: 0.05%
65+: 0.86%
The under 50 rates of the flu and C19 do seem to be roughly comparable, though different studies do vary widely. And of course, C19 is more contagious, so mortality rates per overall population are higher. Over 50, though, there is a huge gap. The studies in the Netherlands, France and Spain indicate rates of 0.3-0.5% for 50-70. And keep in mind that we still don't know what the long-term consequences may be for many survivors of C19.
Out of those 31%, 7 in 10 worry about "safety."I watched Newshour on PBS..as the story changed the displayed a survey result..
@31% of Americans who they surveyed would NOT take a vaccine if one was available.
"The nationwide poll was conducted May 14-18, 2020 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,056 adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. "I would like to see the exact question from the various polls. I'm like a few others here in that if the vaccine is available in September, I might be in the "wait and see" group. Plus, whenever it is available, I'm going to be reading/researching like crazy about it.
Don't forget, if you get the vaccine you are allowing Bill Gates to track your every move!![]()
And now we have indications that some jurisdictions from counties to states are adjusting their data on infections, testing and even deaths independently. The District of Columbia is using a "Community Spread metric" excluding nursing homes, prisons that would improve their data and justifications for opening protocol.The figure cited by the CDC would be along the lines of the 1957 Asian flu pandemic:
And speaking of the CDC - it sounds like Birx is a little fed-up with the agency saying they're inflating coronavirus statistics like mortality rates and case numbers by up to "25%"
She also says "there's nothing from the CDC that she can trust." Just splendid - coming from a world-renowned expert on the WH task force that sets policy. And we're supposed to trust the CDC as if it's the word of God.
And this is a bunch of BS with the state of Washington classifying fatal gunshot victims as COVID cases. Lol. Then people wonder why there's so much skepticism and mistrust of the government during this pandemic (imagine that).
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Washington health officials: Gunshot victims counted as COVID-19 deaths - Freedom Foundation
Following a Freedom Foundation report, Washington public health officials acknowledged knowingly including multiple deaths caused by gunshot wounds in the state’s COVID-19 fatality count.www.freedomfoundation.com
More specifically, states should meet at least five basic criteria. They should see a two-week drop in coronavirus cases, indicating that the virus is actually abating. They should have fewer than four daily new cases per 100,000 people per day — to show that cases aren’t just dropping, but also below dangerous levels. They need at least 150 new tests per 100,000 people per day, letting them quickly track and contain outbreaks. They need an overall positive rate for tests below 5 percent — another critical indicator for testing capacity. And states should have more than 40 percent of their ICU beds free to actually treat an influx of people stricken with Covid-19 should it be necessary.
Density also matters on a micro level. Some of the neighborhoods within NYC that were hit the hardest feature a lot of people living in small spaces, often lacking multiple bathrooms. That really challenges how you can effectively quarantine the sick outside of a hospital under these conditions.Think maybe population density has something to do with how fast the virus spreads?
Others have pointed out that > half of all C19 deaths have occurred within one hundred miles or so of NY. Population density is one big reason, though another factor is that the virus began spreading here sooner than in most other parts of the country, so it has had a head start.
And in the US..we don't need to argue about Polio or other critical vaccines..if you don't have them you should be excluded from schools,parks,airplanes,ball games,casinos,concerts and restaurants to start.
About 2–10% of healthy individuals fail to mount antibody levels to routine vaccines. Comparing the immune responses to different vaccines in non-responder and high-responder vaccinees revealed that hypo-responsiveness is antigen/vaccine-specific at the humoral but not at the cellular level.
Others have pointed out that > half of all C19 deaths have occurred within one hundred miles or so of NY. Population density is one big reason, though another factor is that the virus began spreading here sooner than in most other parts of the country, so it has had a head start.