Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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The first major vaccine push in the peak age of misinformation will be interesting for sure. As soon as it rolls out, there will be scores of you tube videos showing 'adverse reactions'. Many will be hoaxes, but they will still get millions of views. I don't know if people in public health are quite ready to fight this kind of battle. Of course, if it gets really bad this fall and winter, that might be a moot point. The more people who personally know people that have died will trump abstract fears of adverse reactions. The metric that I will be keeping my eye on this fall as a potential leading indicator is flu vaccination rate. If it doesn't go up substantially, the pleas of public health advocates are mostly falling on deaf ears, and compliance with COVID vaccination is going to be challenging AF.

GBS is something that people will be on the lookout for as a swine flu vaccine in the 70s was shown to increase the incidence of this autoimmune reaction. It generally occurs in the first 4-6 weeks after vaccination, but it is rare, so it might not be immediately obvious from phase 3 trials or initial vaccinations.

The real victims of this pandemic were likely the 450-odd people who came down with Guillain-Barre syndrome, a rare neurological disorder, after getting the 1976 flu shot. On its website, the CDC notes that people who got the vaccination did have an increased risk of “approximately one additional case of GBS for every 100,000 people who got the swine flu vaccine.”

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/long-shadow-1976-swine-flu-vaccine-fiasco-180961994/

If there is something like Dengue where partial incomplete immunity actually worsens infection, that would be picked up in the clinical trials.
 
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Because some people can't get vaccinated for health reasons, and some of those people will also be vulnerable to covid-19.
I only wish your reasonable reasoning was the basis for the decisions made by people not to get vaccinated. Flu vaccine is a pivot point in health care in the US. Seasonal flu and the rotation of offered shots are not 100% effective..and in our past not getting a flu shot was not life or death, for the vast majority that will remain true. This seasonal flu and the one ahead of us 2020-2021 the vaccinations will play in a bigger role in every community. If you get or give common flu, whoever is effected will be more compromised for a Covid19 negative outcome.
And hospital business models in the US are pretty straight forward..if there is an empty bed..there is a loss of revenue. In the past 20+ years hospital funding allocating is legendary..patients rapidly..often prematurely discharged from the hospital because the insurance company will not pay for additional time and services down to the minute..down to an aspirin or band aid.
So w a business model that overall doesn't design or maintain hospitals for measurable extra capacity having services and space used by seasonal influenza patients may be a critical difference.
So basically,if a simple,free,fast, almost side effects free shot can keep thousands from getting sick to whatever degree it's a straight forward civic responsibility to get a vaccination..and the same will be true when or if a Covid 19 vaccination comes available.
And in the US..we don't need to argue about Polio or other critical vaccines..if you don't have them you should be excluded from schools,parks,airplanes,ball games,casinos,concerts and restaurants to start.
No child should be exposed to previously eradicated disease..if you don't have shots that's a personal choice..but there was an assumed social contract in the US that people on mass had received a battery of common vaccinations.
In Paradise Valley AZ..where I went to elementary school..your immunization records were an absolute required documents to enroll and attend school..and anybody from the US that has ever traveled to mainland Africa..you need to get a bunch of shots..no if and or buts..

not getting vaccinated for underlying health conditions is completely reasonable
 
I'm far from being an anti-vaccinationist. But I would not like to get a vaccination that seems hurried. I guess there's a reason that studies usually take years and it's not only money. We better wait half a year more before we use a vaccination that could do more damage than good. The mortality rate of this seems to be around 1% at most, not 10 oder 20%.
Well, I guess I'm not going to be among the first to get a vaccination anyway, but if I have to decide whether to get it, I will look a little closer: who made it under which circumstances and does the time of the trial phases seem reasonable to me.
 
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I don't think waiting a few months is going to accomplish anything. Such short-term impact is likely to have been detected in the trials, and side effects could show up years down the line anyway. And regardless, you are not likely to be among the first to receive a vaccine. Waiting would do little more than increase the risk for vulnerable people who can't get vaccinated.
More explanation of what you mean please...
 
I would like to see the exact question from the various polls. I'm like a few others here in that if the vaccine is available in September, I might be in the "wait and see" group. Plus, whenever it is available, I'm going to be reading/researching like crazy about it.

Don't forget, if you get the vaccine you are allowing Bill Gates to track your every move! :eek:
 
Of course. Every scientist wants to publish a study that definitely shows an effect, or definitely rules out an effect. The data here--the relatively small number of positives for the youngest groups, plus the lack of a normal distribution--make that very difficult. But I think Drosten should have emphasized this, rather than implying that his study clearly indicated that children have viral loads as high as older people. You can say, the study provides no evidence that children have lower loads, rather than, we should assume that children are just as infectious as adults.

As I noted earlier, the analysis using the second classification, actually found the highest mean viral load for the grade school students. Drosten never points this out, though for anyone looking at the means, it sticks out like a sore thumb. Why is that one group so high? There were only 16 subjects, 15 - more than 100 times fewer than for the older age groups. This is the kind of outlier you can get when you work with small sample sizes.

You could lump the first two groups together. That would provide a larger sample size and a smaller standard error. Just doing a rough calculation, I find a mean of 4.74. a SE of 0.16, and 95% confidence limits of 4.42 - 5.06. The upper bound of that is lower than the lower bound of all the other groups except 5, 8 and 10, with 10 being ruled out because of small sample size. And if you lumped all eight of the older groups together (just do 7, the oldest group is way too small, and the numbers it does provide indicate it's about the same as the other seven, anyway), you get a mean of 5.26, a SE of around 0.03, and 95% limits of 5.20-5.32.

Statisticians would probably say that's an arbitrary comparison, but 20 is about the age when humans reach physical and mental maturity. i think it's entirely reasonable to compare people below that age with people above. The ten year groups Drosten uses are arbitrary, too. Suppose we use five 20 year groups instead?

1-20: 4.42 - 5.06
21-40: 5.12 - 5.34
41-60: 5.02 - 5.24
61-80: 5.10 - 5.34
81-100: 5.12 - 5.52

Complete separation between 1-20 and all the other 20 year groups except 41-60, which is really close,.



Yes, that's an important point. But probably there are multiple factors involved. Just a high viral load could be due to several. factors, including time in relation to symptoms, and infectivity could be due to other factors than high viral load. We really don't know if certain individuals are super-spreaders because of intrinsic characteristics, or if it was just a chance event.



Except that every major country that has estimated prevalence of infection has come up with a far higher estimate (than the 0.26% cited by CDC):

Spain: 1.1%
France: 0.70%
Netherlands: 0.67%
Belgium: 0.65%
Sweden: 0.47%
Denmark: 0.38%

Wrt the flu, in 2017-18, one of the worst recent seasons, the U.S. mortality rates were:

18-49: 0.02%
50-65: 0.05%
65+: 0.86%

The under 50 rates of the flu and C19 do seem to be roughly comparable, though different studies do vary widely. And of course, C19 is more contagious, so mortality rates per overall population are higher. Over 50, though, there is a huge gap. The studies in the Netherlands, France and Spain indicate rates of 0.3-0.5% for 50-70. And keep in mind that we still don't know what the long-term consequences may be for many survivors of C19.
The figure cited by the CDC would be along the lines of the 1957 Asian flu pandemic:


And speaking of the CDC - it sounds like Birx is a little fed-up with the agency saying they're inflating coronavirus statistics like mortality rates and case numbers by up to "25%"


She also says "there's nothing from the CDC that she can trust." Just splendid - coming from a world-renowned expert on the WH task force that sets policy. And we're supposed to trust the CDC as if it's the word of God.

And this is a bunch of BS with the state of Washington classifying fatal gunshot victims as COVID cases. Lol. Then people wonder why there's so much skepticism and mistrust of the government during this pandemic (imagine that).

 
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If you look at the all cause mortality data, the death toll is more like 130K, not 100K. If you want the tally to be 100% precise, you are simply asking the impossible. Some will be falsely added while many more will be incorrectly neglected from the lists.

The CDC is not covering themselves in glory during this period. The latest seems to be removing the guidelines that choirs should be prohibited due to the high risk of transmission. Very peculiar.
View: https://twitter.com/StarrProspect/status/1265729561582600194


Here is one limited study that supports the notion that school age kids are not transmitting the virus in a major way. Preliminary, but this is the kind of data that needs to be analyzed.

View: https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1266020493251039233
 
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I watched Newshour on PBS..as the story changed the displayed a survey result..
@31% of Americans who they surveyed would NOT take a vaccine if one was available.
Out of those 31%, 7 in 10 worry about "safety."


A few pages up, I posted an interesting interview with Dr. Paul Offit, a top vaccine expert and co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine, who said it could take up to 2 yrs to produce a safe and effective vaccine. When asked about developing a vaccine in a year or less time, he said some steps would have to be skipped.

And with the code name of "Operation Warp Speed," it sounds like there's a rush job just to get something out there very soon. And with so many people frightened & paranoid of getting infected they're demanding a vaccine before they would feel comfortable going back to work. In fact, I just saw something where 1 out of 5 school teachers polled said they would not return to the classroom this fall unless there's a vaccine - that's 20%! Can you imagine the catastrophe this fall when school districts want to reopen and you're missing 20% of your faculty.
 
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I would like to see the exact question from the various polls. I'm like a few others here in that if the vaccine is available in September, I might be in the "wait and see" group. Plus, whenever it is available, I'm going to be reading/researching like crazy about it.

Don't forget, if you get the vaccine you are allowing Bill Gates to track your every move! :eek:
"The nationwide poll was conducted May 14-18, 2020 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,056 adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. "

"If a vaccine against the corona virus become available, do you plan to be vaccinated, or not?"

IMO: The question is too vague. I need more information to answer.

I am skeptical of phone polls because they call landlines which skew the results to certain age groups (and even race groups). This one did use 'online and telephone' but how much of each?

I know that statisticians are good with polls of 1,000 people representing the entire USA population, but I'm not (especially when most of them could be of the same age and race category). Did they call at least one person from each state? Proportionate to state population? etc...etc...
 
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The figure cited by the CDC would be along the lines of the 1957 Asian flu pandemic:


And speaking of the CDC - it sounds like Birx is a little fed-up with the agency saying they're inflating coronavirus statistics like mortality rates and case numbers by up to "25%"


She also says "there's nothing from the CDC that she can trust." Just splendid - coming from a world-renowned expert on the WH task force that sets policy. And we're supposed to trust the CDC as if it's the word of God.

And this is a bunch of BS with the state of Washington classifying fatal gunshot victims as COVID cases. Lol. Then people wonder why there's so much skepticism and mistrust of the government during this pandemic (imagine that).

And now we have indications that some jurisdictions from counties to states are adjusting their data on infections, testing and even deaths independently. The District of Columbia is using a "Community Spread metric" excluding nursing homes, prisons that would improve their data and justifications for opening protocol.
Listening to Cuomo's presentation yesterday after he'd met with Trump was chilling. Granted; he can be dramatic and is his own politician but the message was clear: The States are on their own and now responsible. This sounds more and more like a campaign exit strategy than a recovery strategy on the Federal level. Cuomo's state by state economic counter to the "Blue State bailout" label given by some legislators wishing to deny local governments economic aid was simple and graphic. The conclusions you can draw for yourself.
 
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Only three states--NY, KY and AK--meet, more or less, the five criteria needed to re-open safely:

More specifically, states should meet at least five basic criteria. They should see a two-week drop in coronavirus cases, indicating that the virus is actually abating. They should have fewer than four daily new cases per 100,000 people per day — to show that cases aren’t just dropping, but also below dangerous levels. They need at least 150 new tests per 100,000 people per day, letting them quickly track and contain outbreaks. They need an overall positive rate for tests below 5 percent — another critical indicator for testing capacity. And states should have more than 40 percent of their ICU beds free to actually treat an influx of people stricken with Covid-19 should it be necessary.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/28/21270...pen-economy-social-distancing-states-map-data
 
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The poll is too vague. I need more information. The first part of the information is what are the side effects. If the side effects are mild I would likely seriously consider getting it. However, my situation is my husband works in a hospital and has an autoimmune disease. If there is a vaccine, even if it only protects for 3 to 6 months with mild to no side effects, then he will get it and I likely will as well. I do have a hard time believing a vaccine will be available outside of trials until end of this year early next year at the soonest. I also suspect healthcare workers, or anyone who works in medical facilities to be the first to get it and then families likely next.
 
Think maybe population density has something to do with how fast the virus spreads? The top five states in confirmed cases per million are:

  1. NY
  2. NJ
  3. MA
  4. RI
  5. CT
These are in fact the only states with a > 1.0% case rate. The top states in population density are:

  1. NJ
  2. RI
  3. MA
  4. CT
  5. MD
  6. DE
  7. NY
I ran a correlation between population density and case rate for all 48 contiguous states (eliminating HI and AK, because they are relatively isolated); it was 0.78. That's even more remarkable when you consider that confirmed cases will vary somewhat according to how many tests are run, and of whom. One would think that if seroprevalence data were avallable, the correlation would be even better. i would also expect a better correlation for cities, where the population density is more homogenous).

This also has implications for nursing home deaths. As I posted previously, the science says transferring recovering C19 patients to nursing homes would not be much of a risk for introducing the virus. Where does the virus come from, then? The staff, who come in and out every day, and visitors, before states began barring them. Since the risk these people would present would be directly related to the risk outside the nursing home--IOW, the case rate for that area--one would expect nursing home deaths to correlate with population density.

And they do. The states with the highest percentage of nursing home deaths (as a fraction of total nursing home population) are:

  1. NJ
  2. CT
  3. MA
  4. NY
  5. RI
Others have pointed out that > half of all C19 deaths have occurred within one hundred miles or so of NY. Population density is one big reason, though another factor is that the virus began spreading here sooner than in most other parts of the country, so it has had a head start.
 
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Think maybe population density has something to do with how fast the virus spreads?

Others have pointed out that > half of all C19 deaths have occurred within one hundred miles or so of NY. Population density is one big reason, though another factor is that the virus began spreading here sooner than in most other parts of the country, so it has had a head start.
Density also matters on a micro level. Some of the neighborhoods within NYC that were hit the hardest feature a lot of people living in small spaces, often lacking multiple bathrooms. That really challenges how you can effectively quarantine the sick outside of a hospital under these conditions.

The I95 corridor from DC to NYC is basically one giant metro area. The international airports in the tristate area are also a big gateway to Europe. When the Yankees are in town, the majority of the stands are filled with people in Yankee gear. It is not a long car trip.
 
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Vaccines are effective because of herd immunity. Vaccines are not guaranteed to work on every single individual. The most recent person to die from measles in the USA was actually vaccinated. The immune response in a population is more like a bell curve, some people will not generate much if any immunity. Fortunately, they are protected by the people who do.

https://redpenblackpen.tumblr.com/image/178667310347

ETA. Because I assume that I will be accused of making this claim up....

About 2–10% of healthy individuals fail to mount antibody levels to routine vaccines. Comparing the immune responses to different vaccines in non-responder and high-responder vaccinees revealed that hypo-responsiveness is antigen/vaccine-specific at the humoral but not at the cellular level.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21645515.2015.1093263
 
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Facts are facts. The U.S.has the highest death count for Covid 19.

And in a strange health twist..often in the 3rd world aid workers are attacked..or killed while trying to treat and prevent disease..medical professionals trying to help populations w things like ebola outbreaks are targeted by religious or tribal fanatics..to watch the US mimic other crazy counties is absolutely heartbreaking..to have so much in common with science denying lunatics is disheartening and disgraceful.

And again the US has the number 1 death toll
Why?
What is different?
What is the same?
What is the path forward?
arguing..yelling at people pumping gas,or playing with kids for wearing masks is despicable and should be criminal.
if it is neither of those..it's scientifically proven prudent to wear a mask..
Take your pick
Next we are going to hear that leading scientific and medical experts concur that kneeing a guy in the neck for 6minutes has not been proven to harm anybody..
Again..science says restricting a human's airway is harmful..
And until recently these were undeniable facts..
 
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Others have pointed out that > half of all C19 deaths have occurred within one hundred miles or so of NY. Population density is one big reason, though another factor is that the virus began spreading here sooner than in most other parts of the country, so it has had a head start.


The only part I would disagree with to a degree is that the first known cases in the US were in California and Washington (state). The big difference is population density. California is the most populous state (40 million people) and LA County the most populous county (13 million) the density isn't as great as the north eastern states. California (due to earth quakes) doesn't have the high rise buildings that many other states have, so that also helps in their case. So I suspect this helps actually prove the spread with population density.
 
Is anybody using a mask with a valve in it? I'm just curious if they are 'better'. I'm able to go for two hours without any breathing issues (haven't had to go longer yet), but my glasses get fogged up frequently.

I'm not advertising for ebay or this seller, I'm just showing what type of mask I'm referring to:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Face-Mask-...826789?hash=item23d810aca5:g:S60AAOSwMBVew-Fa

Maybe I should just wipe my glasses with a fog cloth.