Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[aphronesis]

That's being floated in various places. Politico has an article on "skepticism". More extreme assessments elsewhere. I think the science community is leaning more to two months. As I suggested upthread there are staggered models based not on quarantining the elderly as DJ mentioned (because that can go wrong in obvious ways--never mind liberal objections to its appearance) , but rather of low-risk, low-contact workers (among others) being able to circulate.

 

[Unchained]

Got a question or 2 about milk. In Mexico they sell milk in the familiar American format, half gallons and gallons. But lots of milk is sold in liter cartons that don't require refrigeration. We often have it here at home and the flavor is good,no difference in texture or appearance. The cost is very slightly more expensive.
I am wondering if others are buying differently..in Belgium and Germany my landlords called it vomilch..(sorry for spelling)
I am curious to see if American buying habits could be subtly changed. Besides the really obvious benefits, it still goes bad after opening,but stores also w zero care. Fresh milk,eggs and bread are huge bumps in the logistical road..people waiting in line and often in search..are often looking for milk.
Here in Northern Baja..stores are normal( full) w slightly less meat and eggs but display cases are half full or better.

 

[movingtarget]

It herds my brain.

Listening to some of the so called world leaders discussing the crisis at the moment would herd anyone's brain.................

 

[Koronin]

Got a question or 2 about milk. In Mexico they sell milk in the familiar American format, half gallons and gallons. But lots of milk is sold in liter cartons that don't require refrigeration. We often have it here at home and the flavor is good,no difference in texture or appearance. The cost is very slightly more expensive.
I am wondering if others are buying differently..in Belgium and Germany my landlords called it vomilch..(sorry for spelling)
I am curious to see if American buying habits could be subtly changed. Besides the really obvious benefits, it still goes bad after opening,but stores also w zero care. Fresh milk,eggs and bread are huge bumps in the logistical road..people waiting in line and often in search..are often looking for milk.
Here in Northern Baja..stores are normal( full) w slightly less meat and eggs but display cases are half full or better.

I doubt it. Milk sells out about a two days before a hurricane hits every time. Also sells out as soon as there is a report of "you might get an inch of snow". However, a virus is here that could shut down things in hurricane and it might snow country milk does not sell out. Stores here are starting to mostly look like grocery stores again. Toilet paper and eggs are the items that are still out of stock. We've had some bread back in the stores since the weekend. There is meat. Might not be able to find exactly what you want, but there is meat back in the stores. Everything else is getting better stocked now.

 

[jmdirt]

I still haven't ventured back to the store, but our general plan is maybe Thursday early morning (fresh stock, less people...).

 

[Nirvana]

Just take with a pinch of salt the new cases number in Italy because they further reduced the daily number of tests and there are continuous reports of people that die at home without being testes and outside Lombardia the number where aren't increasing are at best stable. Also authorities have stated that it's early to draw any conclusion.

 

[Koronin]

I still haven't ventured back to the store, but our general plan is maybe Thursday early morning (fresh stock, less people...).

I have no idea when your stores get their trucks however they should be getting 3 trucks per week. I work as a vendor and am grocery and drug stores a lot. Just as a note, soda, chips, beer and bread are mostly brought by vendors.

 

[hrotha]

The Spanish government recently released partial data about the age and sex of the country's COVID-19 cases. People above 80 years old make up two thirds of all deaths, but only 7% of ICU patients. Triage whomst'd've?

 

[nevele neves]

This thread has become political over the weekend. Where are the mods?

Well you see the posts.

 

[jmdirt]

I have no idea when your stores get their trucks however they should be getting 3 trucks per week. I work as a vendor and am grocery and drug stores a lot. Just as a note, soda, chips, beer and bread are mostly brought by vendors.

WinCo said they are stocking nightly (12-4 AM). Albertsons claims to stock two nights a week and fill in as necessary. I'm going to try the little local market, it will coast more but hopefully help them.

 

[Koronin]

WinCo said they are stocking nightly (12-4 AM). Albertsons claims to stock two nights a week and fill in as necessary. I'm going to try the little local market, it will coast more but hopefully help them.

They are stocking every night. However they can only stock the shelves with what they have in back stock. When they get their trucks, what is currently out of stock will be the first things stocked. If your grocery stores are anything like the ones here, there's not a whole lot in their stock rooms. As I said above I'm a vendor. I'm in grocery store stock rooms. This week I'll be in (I think11) grocery stores putting up ads. (8 of those are ones are my stores, 3 I'm covering for someone who is taking advantage of the company allowing people to not work and still get paid.) The stock rooms of the stores here don't have a whole lot in them currently. Restocking shelves and getting trucks with new stock are two different things. Also trucks are only bringing some things and they don't know what they're getting until the trucks show up. This is because they are sending the trucks with multiple stores and not increasing the number of trucks being sent (which may not even be possible). I've been working in my set of stores for 10 years now, so I know some of the stockers and other workers in the stores and talk with them and find out what's going on.

 

[Merckx index]

One in a thousand in NYC now positive. That's about the same as Hubei. Cuomo says the cases are doubling every two and a half days. Just to put that in perspective, at that rate, the cases would increase about 500 times in the next three weeks. At that point about half of all New Yorkers would be positive. This is a really worst case scenario, I can't see that happening, but even if you scale the estimate way back, this is the tsunami Cuomo says is coming.

 

[Keram]

The Spanish government recently released partial data about the age and sex of the country's COVID-19 cases. People above 80 years old make up two thirds of all deaths, but only 7% of ICU patients. Triage whomst'd've?

I think they are not treating 75+ on ICU anymore. These 7% are maybe old cases from time where system was not owerhelmed. Is there some stat about age structure of ICU patients? But ICU is not equal to ECMO and vents as I know. In Slovakia there were some ICU patients but not vent I believe.

 

[Red Rick]

One in a thousand in NYC now positive. That's about the same as Hubei. Cuomo says the cases are doubling every two and a half days. Just to put that in perspective, at that rate, the cases would increase about 500 times in the next three weeks. At that point about half of all New Yorkers would be positive. This is a really worst case scenario, I can't see that happening, but even if you scale the estimate way back, this is the tsunami Cuomo says is coming.

Doubling rate is initially overestimated as you're scaling up testing. While it's very possible a large amount of NYers will get infected, that doubling rate seems unrealistic to me.

 

[aphronesis]

Over the course of the year, the governor has advised people that the majority may well be infected. But also stresses that many won’t get ill, relatively few will die and that there will be more rapid and efficient protocols in place to identify and contain the dangers. So raw estimates are a bit moot (if not alarmist) with the bulk of the population now isolated indoors.

 

[hrotha]

I think they are not treating 75+ on ICU anymore. These 7% are maybe old cases from time where system was not owerhelmed. Is there some stat about age structure of ICU patients? But ICU is not equal to ECMO and vents as I know. In Slovakia there were some ICU patients but not vent I believe.

Yeah, I believe this is the case. Old people are simply being left to die, and even then ICUs are overwhelmed as it is. Non-coronavirus cases are apparently treated the same way, judging by the stories about dead people in retirement homes.

Age data for all patients (ICU patients in white) [again, partial data, not covering all cases yet AFAIK]

 

[Red Rick]

Just take with a pinch of salt the new cases number in Italy because they further reduced the daily number of tests and there are continuous reports of people that die at home without being testes and outside Lombardia the number where aren't increasing are at best stable. Also authorities have stated that it's early to draw any conclusion.

Are there reliable sources for this?

 

[Keram]

[QUOTE="hrotha, post: 2426091, member: 13161

Age data for all patients (ICU patients in white) [again, partial data, not covering all cases yet AFAIK]

[/QUOTE]

This graph prove that there is testing
on people with real symptomes and young people to 20 years are mostly asymptomatic. But we knew that already.

 

[GVFTA]

really? YOU are in Baja and have onions on the norteamericanos? U are one of those seamen who missed movement and found domicile south of the border? Or you just dig the raptor / paycheck to paycheck lifestyle? because looking at you and your friends ,,,,,, your spreading it most likely!

The other day they said they were in Crested Butte, CO. Take it all with a grain of salt.

 

[Nirvana]

This conspiracy theory has been around for many weeks. It has been denied by RKI officials several times. A German death certificate includes the following:

-immediate cause of death:, e.g. severe pneumonia
-as a result of:, e.g. infection with Sars-CoV-2
-pre-existing conditions that contributed to the death:, e.g. diabetes, asthma, cardiac arhythmia...

Any death of a patient with corona infection will be added to the statistics regardless of pre-existing conditions. Quite baffling that someone would state something like that during an official press conference.

According to them they don't mention Coronavirus and use the pre existing condition(s) or a general pneumonia as cause of death, this morning they talked about that a good half an hour both on Sky and RaiNews with doctors stating that everyone know that among hospital workers/researchers.

 

[Nirvana]

Are there reliable sources for this?

Regarding tests just look at the official data, yesterday Lombardia did only around 2.500 tests. Would be interesting to see if numbers will increase in Veneto in the coming days because they want to start mass testing.

Coronavirus, in Veneto la fase due: 500 mila test in strada per scovare chi è già stato colpito

Per le categorie a rischio l’obiettivo della Regione guidata dal governatore Luca Zaia è di arrivare a 13 mila tamponi al giorno

www.repubblica.it

Regarding the deaths at home not counted I've already posted that some days ago.

Per i sindaci del Bergamasco i morti sono molti di più di quelli ufficiali

"Tantissimi" gli anziani che muoiono in casa o nelle residenze assistite e non rientrano nel computo perché non si esegue il tampone post mortem

www.agi.it

 

[Red Rick]

Regarding tests just look at the official data, yesterday Lombardia did only around 2.500 tests. Would be interesting to see if numbers will increase in Veneto in the coming days because they want to start mass testing.

Coronavirus, in Veneto la fase due: 500 mila test in strada per scovare chi è già stato colpito

Per le categorie a rischio l’obiettivo della Regione guidata dal governatore Luca Zaia è di arrivare a 13 mila tamponi al giorno

www.repubblica.it

Regarding the deaths at home not counted I've already posted that some days ago.

Per i sindaci del Bergamasco i morti sono molti di più di quelli ufficiali

"Tantissimi" gli anziani che muoiono in casa o nelle residenze assistite e non rientrano nel computo perché non si esegue il tampone post mortem

www.agi.it

*** that's awful.

Over 800 new cases and 60 deaths here, the growth continues over here.

 

[BlueRoads]

The blame game is on, conspiracy theories are in bud. Not nice to watch.

 

[djpbaltimore]

That's being floated in various places. Politico has an article on "skepticism". More extreme assessments elsewhere. I think the science community is leaning more to two months. As I suggested upthread there are staggered models based not on quarantining the elderly as DJ mentioned (because that can go wrong in obvious ways--never mind liberal objections to its appearance) , but rather of low-risk, low-contact workers (among others) being able to circulate.

I thought about posting the clip but I decided it was a bit too political. But the way certain influencers are floating the 'business as usual but the elderly and infirm in isolation' as a compromise solution really is madness. People really need to think hard about how re-opening the country occurs. Hong Kong and Singapore started opening up and were forced to retreat when cases started to creep up again.

 

[GVFTA]

Since this is a bike forum. Good to see more and more companies stepping up.

Cycling industry pivots to COVID-19 protective equipment production

Bike industry players, big and small, shift production to make personal protective equipment for front-line healthcare workers.

www.velonews.com