Chris Gadsden
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Chris Gadsden
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Domestication of animals almost assuredly caused influenza and small pox to jump into humans.
Specifically related to cattle.
Specifically related to cattle.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3880910/
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Chris Gadsden
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You go through the world-wide testing VS positives and it's not much more than 10%.
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I hope that after this ends, we will see that we need a different look on economy. 'Trimming the fat' often means making a system less robust. It's like you're a farmer with plenty of crops, who is being pushed into growing only one crop to 'improve efficiency'. That works, until a disease targets that specific crop. Then, the marginal gains you made by focusing on the one crop mean nothing anymore. If the farmer was still growing 10 different crops (i.e. an anti-fragile system), his loss would have been 10% instead of 100%.This is a summary of the management, preparedness and governance of US hospitals as refracted through one in Oakland. It’s consistent with my experience of NY public emergency services and the NHS in the UK. I suspect similar conditions obtain through various European countries and elsewhere. Implicit in this account are the risks of hyper-specialization in a moment of widespread need. It’s basically the flipside of philanthropically enabled testing in Telluride
Chaos on the Front Line
For decades, America’s hospitals have been underfunded and understaffed in the name of efficiency. An examination of conditions at one public hospital in Oakland show us how unprepared this austerity-starved health care system is for what’s to come.jacobinmag.com
Some interesting data out of Italy:
17th March 2020: Report from the Italian National Institute of Health: analysed 355 fatalities and found only three patients (0.8%) had no prior medical conditions. See Table 1 in the paper; (99% who died had one pre-existing health condition):
49% had three or more health conditions
26% had two other ‘pathologies’,
25% had one.
The most common problems in the 355 who died were:
76% high blood pressure.
36% diabetes,
33% ischemic heart disease.
The average age of deceased and COVID-19 positive patients was 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103, InterQuartile – IQR 74.3-85.9). The median age of the patients who died was > 15 years higher than that of patients who contracted the infection (median age: patients who died 80.5 years – patients with infection 63 years). Women who died after contracting COVID-19 infection were older than men (median ages: women 83.7 – men 79.5).
This isn't a surprise since Covid-19, with similar characteristics as SARS, is a strong respiratory track infection.
The Govenor of NY has mentioned similar trends with the elderly who have underlying health conditions. This is currently the epicenter in the States.
81% who get the virus have mild or no symptoms - good news. And that 81% can be both young & older people (there are many healthy, very fit older people with no underlying medical conditions).
Clearly, the older at-risk population are the biggest danger here - and will be moving forward. Compromised immune systems from underlying medical conditions increases their risk significantly of complications from respiratory track infections.
Why aren't these people identified and self-quarantine? They're a ticking time bomb here in the U.S. as more & more cases start popping up throughout the country. A vaccine is still a ways off.
17th March 2020: Report from the Italian National Institute of Health: analysed 355 fatalities and found only three patients (0.8%) had no prior medical conditions. See Table 1 in the paper; (99% who died had one pre-existing health condition):
49% had three or more health conditions
26% had two other ‘pathologies’,
25% had one.
The most common problems in the 355 who died were:
76% high blood pressure.
36% diabetes,
33% ischemic heart disease.
The average age of deceased and COVID-19 positive patients was 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103, InterQuartile – IQR 74.3-85.9). The median age of the patients who died was > 15 years higher than that of patients who contracted the infection (median age: patients who died 80.5 years – patients with infection 63 years). Women who died after contracting COVID-19 infection were older than men (median ages: women 83.7 – men 79.5).
This isn't a surprise since Covid-19, with similar characteristics as SARS, is a strong respiratory track infection.
The Govenor of NY has mentioned similar trends with the elderly who have underlying health conditions. This is currently the epicenter in the States.
81% who get the virus have mild or no symptoms - good news. And that 81% can be both young & older people (there are many healthy, very fit older people with no underlying medical conditions).
Clearly, the older at-risk population are the biggest danger here - and will be moving forward. Compromised immune systems from underlying medical conditions increases their risk significantly of complications from respiratory track infections.
Why aren't these people identified and self-quarantine? They're a ticking time bomb here in the U.S. as more & more cases start popping up throughout the country. A vaccine is still a ways off.
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Well that's kind of a silly argument considering if you hop back to December you could say the same for every animal at a wet market. I've read (too long ago to remember specifics) that many of the 'common' virus and bacteria that make us sick now came from cattle, goats, sheep...they might not have shut down the globe but that's also an tough argument because even 50 years ago C19 likely wouldn't have even gotten out of China.
Is there any proof that C19 came from a bat? I saw pictures of live birds crapping on raw meat at a wet market, how about that?
EDIT: it looks like dj already posted that.
nevele neves
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One of my friends sent this to me and other friends on email this morning.
"on average from the seasonal flu according to the CDC (23,000 in total). Big deal. So what? Who cares?
As of 10 AM this morning EST the CDC says that total deaths in the past six months from Covid-19 is 804.
We already have flu vaccines (they don’t work, obviously, but we have them), but none for Covid-19. Therefore, we must destroy the economy, adopt fascism, create hyperinflation, destroy all civil liberties, and essentially make a Giant Leap Forward towards totalitarianism until we do, and then make it mandatory. It’s just common sense "
"on average from the seasonal flu according to the CDC (23,000 in total). Big deal. So what? Who cares?
As of 10 AM this morning EST the CDC says that total deaths in the past six months from Covid-19 is 804.
We already have flu vaccines (they don’t work, obviously, but we have them), but none for Covid-19. Therefore, we must destroy the economy, adopt fascism, create hyperinflation, destroy all civil liberties, and essentially make a Giant Leap Forward towards totalitarianism until we do, and then make it mandatory. It’s just common sense "
Wrt older, healthy fit people and the immune system, this research is fascinating (I'm no spring chicken):
"The study monitored 125 amateur cyclists ranging in age from 55 to 79. The people chosen had to be competent enough on a bike to meet certain requirements for speed and distance, proving they rode regularly. It compared their lab tests with those of 75 healthy people from ages 57 to 80, as well as a group of healthy adults aged 20 to 36—all the people in these latter groups did not regularly exercise."
"After a series of tests and comparisons, the study showed that “loss of muscle mass and strength did not occur in those who exercise regularly” and moreover that these cyclists didn’t increase their body fat or cholesterol levels with age."
"The most shocking finding of the study? The benefits of regularly exercising surpass mere muscle improvement. Cyclists who regularly exercised possessed immune systems that also didn’t seem to age! Normally, the organ called the thymus, which makes immune cells called T cells, starts to shrink after the age of 20. However, in this study, “the cyclists’ thymuses were making as many T cells as those of a young person.”
And this is what I don't understand with all the panic & fear to the point of "Stay at Home" enforceable orders here in some states (I know things are terrible with some of those draconian lockdowns in Europe). So far, in my state, the "Stay at Home" order isn't prohibiting any unlimited outdoor excercise...so far - I can still run and ride. However, some governors in other states are talking about tightening restrictions and inferring some restrictions may be placed on outdoor excercise. And when governors, particularly from larger states, makes changes others like to follow.
I don't understand the unbelievable amount of fear & panic - we're a world consumed in fear right now (you'd think no one had an immune system anymore!). I get the social distancing and all that. But excercise is important when people are being locked down in their homes. Stress, depression, anxiety are major consequences with in-home isolation, plus the stress from the uncertainty of one's financial future with the economic collapse. And we're bombarded daily with fearmongering reporting as networks are engaged in a fierce ratings war. One network continually displays the daily body count like it's some kind of a video game.
I just showed a study where healthy, CV fit older individual have young immune systems. So, competitive athletes, age groupers, fitness enthusiasts and the like need to be able to work out in very stressful times like this. I don't have a treadmill nor turbo-trainer. I don't have access to my gym because of the state-wide gym closures.
This virus is very hard on older individuals with underlying pathologies...that's an undisputed fact. 81% who get the virus show mild or no symptoms...that's great news. This pathogen, like others, is all about the innate immune system. They call it an enemy and we have countermeasures with our immune system. The most vulnerable in society need to be quarantined for their own safety. Loved ones, friends & youth voluntary groups can help take care of their needs.
Weiterleitungshinweis
www.google.com
"The study monitored 125 amateur cyclists ranging in age from 55 to 79. The people chosen had to be competent enough on a bike to meet certain requirements for speed and distance, proving they rode regularly. It compared their lab tests with those of 75 healthy people from ages 57 to 80, as well as a group of healthy adults aged 20 to 36—all the people in these latter groups did not regularly exercise."
"After a series of tests and comparisons, the study showed that “loss of muscle mass and strength did not occur in those who exercise regularly” and moreover that these cyclists didn’t increase their body fat or cholesterol levels with age."
"The most shocking finding of the study? The benefits of regularly exercising surpass mere muscle improvement. Cyclists who regularly exercised possessed immune systems that also didn’t seem to age! Normally, the organ called the thymus, which makes immune cells called T cells, starts to shrink after the age of 20. However, in this study, “the cyclists’ thymuses were making as many T cells as those of a young person.”
And this is what I don't understand with all the panic & fear to the point of "Stay at Home" enforceable orders here in some states (I know things are terrible with some of those draconian lockdowns in Europe). So far, in my state, the "Stay at Home" order isn't prohibiting any unlimited outdoor excercise...so far - I can still run and ride. However, some governors in other states are talking about tightening restrictions and inferring some restrictions may be placed on outdoor excercise. And when governors, particularly from larger states, makes changes others like to follow.
I don't understand the unbelievable amount of fear & panic - we're a world consumed in fear right now (you'd think no one had an immune system anymore!). I get the social distancing and all that. But excercise is important when people are being locked down in their homes. Stress, depression, anxiety are major consequences with in-home isolation, plus the stress from the uncertainty of one's financial future with the economic collapse. And we're bombarded daily with fearmongering reporting as networks are engaged in a fierce ratings war. One network continually displays the daily body count like it's some kind of a video game.
I just showed a study where healthy, CV fit older individual have young immune systems. So, competitive athletes, age groupers, fitness enthusiasts and the like need to be able to work out in very stressful times like this. I don't have a treadmill nor turbo-trainer. I don't have access to my gym because of the state-wide gym closures.
This virus is very hard on older individuals with underlying pathologies...that's an undisputed fact. 81% who get the virus show mild or no symptoms...that's great news. This pathogen, like others, is all about the innate immune system. They call it an enemy and we have countermeasures with our immune system. The most vulnerable in society need to be quarantined for their own safety. Loved ones, friends & youth voluntary groups can help take care of their needs.
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- Jun 9, 2014
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Jeezus.... Please refrain from posting emails that contain such ludicrously false information. Nearly 80% of children who die from influenza were never vaccinated for it. Flu vaccines work just fine most years. Getting people to take them is another story.
True story. And don't forget chickens. Hunter gatherers were riven with parasites, but infectious disease as we know it is a relatively modern phenomenon borne directly or indirectly out of intensive agriculture.
RE: Nomad's post above about exercise. Elevated cortisol present during mental stress is not good for your immune system. If exercise relieves stress for you, keep doing it! Same with sleep and diet. Being healthy is a better strategy than hoarding pills IMO.
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More on failed health governance. Buried in the article is mention that Lombardia houses a major manufacturer of swabs....
www.theatlantic.com
How the Pandemic Will End
The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.
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nevele neves
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Yes I have - they all recovered or in some cases have lingering coughing issues.
From discussions in the NFL thread I should know where you are located but I can't remember. I would gladly let you use my old Cyclops trainer.
EDIT: I wonder if you could get a trainer locally (local team/club, craigs list...).
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nevele neves
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Don't get all stressed out over a post. Please refrain from telling me what I can post.
No one was telling anyone not to take a flu shot. Sometimes overreaction makes people look really poor.
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...the seasonal flu doesn't crash hospitals and the health care facilities of entire countries. It isn't that hospitals are overwhelmed because too many people are coming...it's that the people who need acute care are overwhelming the hospitals...the flu doesn't do that.
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Warning: I can't really put my thoughts together so I'll just ramble:
In the middle of Feb when this started becoming THE topic I was definitely of the mindset that "flu kills up to 60,000K people a year in the USA (that's a bad year and many years are halfish of that). The world number ~ 650K a year." C19 has obviously become the way of life in the world now, but I'm still torn about 'our' reaction.
I am not a medical doctor so I am listening to their advice, but that doesn't stop the war inside my head (there are a lot of battles up there!). Are world/local leaders overreacting? Closing schools and limiting big crowds (especially in small indoor areas) seems like a good idea (even with the flu at times), but would that have been enough? We will likely never know one way or the other.
I can't imagine the world wide medical and political leaders all being on the same (similar) page if this wasn't the correct action.
One of the issues so far with C19 is the way that it has overloaded the medical system. Why doesn't the flu do that since the numbers are so much greater. Do 30-60K people a year just die at home from the flu? I know that the flu is usually spread over most of the year instead of all in 60 days so maybe that is the issue? EDIT: from dj's post it looks like some of the problem is the length of care time/time on a vent is a big issue.
I just don't know what to think. For now I'm going to stay hunkered down at home, walk the dog, and ride my bike in the foothills. I'm willing to go through April being extremely cautious, and then see what things look like.
Sorry for the ramble.
In the middle of Feb when this started becoming THE topic I was definitely of the mindset that "flu kills up to 60,000K people a year in the USA (that's a bad year and many years are halfish of that). The world number ~ 650K a year." C19 has obviously become the way of life in the world now, but I'm still torn about 'our' reaction.
I am not a medical doctor so I am listening to their advice, but that doesn't stop the war inside my head (there are a lot of battles up there!). Are world/local leaders overreacting? Closing schools and limiting big crowds (especially in small indoor areas) seems like a good idea (even with the flu at times), but would that have been enough? We will likely never know one way or the other.
I can't imagine the world wide medical and political leaders all being on the same (similar) page if this wasn't the correct action.
One of the issues so far with C19 is the way that it has overloaded the medical system. Why doesn't the flu do that since the numbers are so much greater. Do 30-60K people a year just die at home from the flu? I know that the flu is usually spread over most of the year instead of all in 60 days so maybe that is the issue? EDIT: from dj's post it looks like some of the problem is the length of care time/time on a vent is a big issue.
I just don't know what to think. For now I'm going to stay hunkered down at home, walk the dog, and ride my bike in the foothills. I'm willing to go through April being extremely cautious, and then see what things look like.
Sorry for the ramble.
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- Jun 9, 2014
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Those 30-60k deaths and hospitalizations that don't lead to death are spread out among the entire country over about 4-6 months. And hospitals generally have enough surge capacity to maintain normal operations. But, some years, when the vaccine doesn't match the viral strain, there are problems caused by just influenza hospitalization. If the 75K cases of COVID19 were dispersed among the major metropolitan areas, there would be no catastrophic shortages. But 20K cases in NYC have hit over the course about 3 weeks like a perfect storm. Flu patients generally need less time in ICUs to recover. COVID-19 patients are under ventilation for multiple weeks in some cases, so discharges are part of the problem too. Too many coming in and not enough recovering quickly.
Good plan. Caution is warranted in this case.
View: https://twitter.com/KellyO/status/1243201888956407808
View: https://twitter.com/Mike_Hixenbaugh/status/1243233474301100032
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No worries about your rambling/venting posts, jmd, I can't speak for an anyone else, but I certainly am interested in how everyone is doing being we all live in different places. And on that note...
Here in Eugene everything has come to a screeching halt, we've had about 5 confirmed cases, and so far 1 death. Only the most essential of businesses are still open, everything else is closed.
My 78yr. old dad had a sore and very hoarse throat for about 5 days last week, but no other symptoms, so his doctor just had me monitor dad at dad's own home (where he and mom still live) for anything else that might develop. Thankfully it didn't, dad is back to normal now. Still had to take him to the lab though for his usual monthly pro-time and an annual basic metabolic panel his cardio had ordered a few weeks ago - that's about the only outings I'm allowing my dad on right now.
I had to pick up some prescriptions and I go grocery shopping only when absolutely necessary - stores are still out of toilet paper and paper towels, but at least eggs and milk are available again.
Otherwise there are a lot of walkers on the streets, but it looks like they're trying to keep a distance from each other, so I'm okay with that.
So yeah, that is it for now from Eugene, OR.
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crazy the numbers of questions not asked or answered.
how many Americans have been tested? 25% of the population..50%. Any number less is scary?
what is happening to the FDA staffing and budget? America was only inspecting a tiny fraction of the food,drugs consumed by Americans..obviously drastic increase in food inspection needed. No time to waste.
have 20% of the U.S. have access to gloves masks and hand sanitizer?
Are the people advising top U.S. Officials that said everything was under control of contained still in the employ of the US?
Do we have a plan to ensure long term that @40% of children are fed at home instead of school?
Is there any national legislation to ensure that all our schools,all are children have access to a school nurse?
we see now that front line is early identification of who is ill.
how many Americans have been tested? 25% of the population..50%. Any number less is scary?
what is happening to the FDA staffing and budget? America was only inspecting a tiny fraction of the food,drugs consumed by Americans..obviously drastic increase in food inspection needed. No time to waste.
have 20% of the U.S. have access to gloves masks and hand sanitizer?
Are the people advising top U.S. Officials that said everything was under control of contained still in the employ of the US?
Do we have a plan to ensure long term that @40% of children are fed at home instead of school?
Is there any national legislation to ensure that all our schools,all are children have access to a school nurse?
we see now that front line is early identification of who is ill.
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I sent you an article that deals with many of the issues in play. So much so that I can't really link or post it here without heavy editing and acrobatics.
It's a systemic crisis. We're seeing multiple interlocking world systems, movements and forms of growth being disrupted by a virus. Which, in informational or data terms (as you may know) is a command or series of commands that the operator doesn't want. That's what's happening here and it's happening to the status quo of various operators: familial, health based, governmental, manufacturing, food and sustenance, governance, economic, etc. This virus is interrupting all of them successively or at one and forcing people to evaluate "life" against the working of their preferred model. As Jag outlined them many, if not most of these modern networks and conveniences are , in many countries are stretched thin or reliant on others that are and this situation collapses or threatens to collapse the stability of too many at once for fictions of "growth" and "security" to be maintained and it's difficult to go to the races or the market and place a winning bet. So we get the ensuing panic. Some of the life loss would or will be likely regardless. Some arguably won't. But most experts are measuring the loss or retention of that life against their set of preferred fields.
US #1
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
A detailed county map shows the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, with tables of the number of cases by county.
www.nytimes.com
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Men more than women
www.theguardian.com
Men are much more likely to die from coronavirus - but why?
Trend has been replicated in all nations, but scientists cannot yet fathom the cause
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