Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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The link to suicide and unemployment is strongest when unemployment is low in the population because of the added stigma. And it occurs most frequently after prolonged periods of unemployment. Neither of which is equivalent to the current situation. Do you expect that suicide might increase in the people who have lost their spouse, parents, and other relatives to the outbreak, especially if we try to attain herd immunity?

The virus has made a lot of business models obsolete. Loudly proclaiming 'open sesame' is not going to reverse that. I personally will not be going to a movie or crowded public gathering without a vaccine or real cure.
 
Exactly...on the growing suspicion that the virus originated from the level-4 biolab located in Wuhan. A few days ago I posted a link that went into more detail and a counterpoint was posted suggesting the virus came from a bat at the wet market. I'm not buying it. There's just too much suspicion going on with the Chinese government concerning this. What appears to be a cover-up with the misinformation & deception they gave from the get go. Plus the tie in with the WHO and the misinformation they provided (funding stopped immediately by President!). There's missing scientists and a couple of reporters that were on the ground in Wuhan investigating this story when they suddenly went missing. Also, none of our CDC people are allowed over there to investigate. No transparency with China - WTH are they hiding?


Senator Tom Cotton not happy about this:


"Since January, I've said it seems to be highly coincidental that this very contagious virus originated just a few hundred yards or maybe a couple miles from laboratories where the Chinese Communist Party researches coronaviruses," Cotton said. "Bret Baier's reporting tonight, if it bears out, shows that the Chinese Communist Party is responsible for every single death, every job lost, every retirement nest egg lost from this coronavirus, and Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist apparatchiks must be made to pay the price. If that turns out to be true."

I couldn't agree more if this is found to be true. And who knows what else they have in that lab?

I don't know about anyone else here, but I wake up every day pinching myself that this real and not some nightmare. The destruction in human life and despair & agony brought on to the families of the victims is unreal! The total meltdown of world economies is on a scale never seen before in modern history. High levels of unemployment already seen worldwide are creating enormous stress & anxiety with tens of millions of people. And the foreseeable future looks bleak as we collectively enter into a Global Depression!
While I certainly wouldn't be surprised by a cover up by China or the USA for that matter, the most compelling scientific evidence I have been reading (including dj's link above) doesn't indicate or support that. Now were China's experiments designed with that in mind? Is that possible? ???

I really don't want to play "IF" here, but IF the lab theory is true....WOW! The world wide...oh man, I don't even want to think about it!

Using a groomed PAC man and inflammatory contrarian for sound bites is misleading at best (we're all guilty of that I suppose). The 'blow things up', and then if you are correct have a parade, but if you are wrong just walk away no matter the damage, approach is dangerous.
 

Chris Gadsden

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I personally will not be going to a movie or crowded public gathering without a vaccine or real cure.

Your choice. What of those workers displaced from everywhere you won't attend?

The virus has made a lot of business models obsolete

Sure has. What do you supposed happens to works that (literally overnight) will be left behind?

Everybody will be effected by this eventually. Even you.
 
Since SARS 1.0, labs in the USA have been doing exactly the same thing as Wuhan, looking for CoV in bats to see what might be a potential zoonotic pathogen. Same with waterfowl to look for potential bird flu dangers. The institute was 20 miles from the wet market, so I'm not sure what that insinuation is even supposed to indicate. And it has received US grant money, so not exactly a rogue agent.

The epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was caused by a newly emerged coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Bats of several species in southern People’s Republic of China harbor SARS-like CoVs and may be reservoir hosts for them. To determine whether bats in North America also harbor coronaviruses, we used reverse transcription–PCR to detect coronavirus RNA in bats. We found coronavirus RNA in 6 of 28 fecal specimens from bats of 2 of 7 species tested. The prevalence of viral RNA shedding was high: 17% in Eptesicus fuscus and 50% in Myotis occultus. Sequence analysis of a 440-bp amplicon in gene 1b showed that these Rocky Mountain bat coronaviruses formed 3 clusters in phylogenetic group 1 that were distinct from group 1 coronaviruses of Asian bats. Because of the potential for bat coronaviruses to cause disease in humans and animals, further surveillance and characterization of bat coronaviruses in North America are needed.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2857301/

Your choice. What of those workers displaced from everywhere you won't attend?

Sure has. What do you supposed happens to works that (literally overnight) will be left behind?

Everybody will be effected by this eventually. Even you.
What we shouldn't do is jump from one half-measure to another based on the opinions of people who don't understand infectious disease. Until you fix the virus problem, you are merely rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
 

Chris Gadsden

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Oct 28, 2019
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Since SARS 1.0, labs in the USA have been doing exactly the same thing as Wuhan, looking for CoV in bats to see what might be a potential zoonotic pathogen. Same with waterfowl to look for potential bird flu dangers. The institute was 20 miles from the wet market, so I'm not sure what that insinuation is even supposed to indicate.

Any of those labs allow a virus to escape? And when they did was the US Government covering it up? And when they covered it up did it lead to a worldwide pandemic? Asking for a friend.

What we shouldn't do is jump from one half-measure to another based on the opinions of people who don't understand infectious disease. Until you fix the virus problem, you are merely rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

I don't know what you consider a "fix" to the virus problem actually is. Speaking of half measures, what we really shouldn't do is jump from one HM to another based on opinions of people who only understand infectious diseases.
 
Any of those labs allow a virus to escape? And when they did was the US Government covering it up? And when they covered it up did it lead to a worldwide pandemic? Asking for a friend.

I don't know what you consider a "fix" to the virus problem actually is. Speaking of half measures, what we really shouldn't do is jump from one HM to another based on opinions of people who only understand infectious diseases.
The question is whether that happened in Wuhan. The best guess according to the science is that it is not the most likely explanation. I direct you to the paper published above.

Lab-acquired infections happens in the USA frequently. But they are the easiest to contain. However, you should read about the institutional response to the Reston Ebola virus outbreak. Really transparent stuff. <sarcasm>

It isn't the scientists who want to change horses midstream. See S. Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong for how you should handle this. If you don't think fighting with every public health resource to beat this virus back close to zero over the next 6 weeks is worth it, you don't fundamentally understand the danger of this virus. 75% of all counties have at least 1 positive test. And some of the counties with no positives haven't even done a single test. It got everywhere before we even bothered to look.
 
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The lockdown in The UK has been extended for three weeks, which allowing for weekends, effectively means till May 11th. It's a relatively loose lockdown, and there'll be a gradual return to work in the next three weeks for many factories and construction sites, albeit in a restricted manner to allow social distancing in the workplace. Has already happened this week with Rolls Royce and Bombardier here in Derby. Probably quite a few coffee shops and cafes will re-emerge in takeaway form. But apart from that, the High Street will remain soviet, and everyone will have to continue pretending they like walking as a hobby
 
The pressure on the CCP will come when the inevitable happens the Chinese economy. Reparations demanded worldwide will devastate them. "Pariah" comes to mind.

This isn't political and should not be taken as such.
I agree that your statement isn't political. As I have said a few times in my posts, some statements of facts (at times factpinions) 'related to countries and/or politics' aren't political in and of themselves IMO, but the discussion that follows can become political.
 
More good news potentially ahead for remdesivir.
Her comments were made this week during a video discussion about the trial results with other University of Chicago faculty members. The discussion was recorded and STAT obtained a copy of the video.
Lol, the downside of Zoom meetings.
Gilead had said to expect results for its trial involving severe cases in April. Mullane said during her presentation that data for the first 400 patients in the study would be “locked” by Gilead Thursday, meaning that results could come any day.
“It’s always hard,” she said, because the severe trial doesn’t include a placebo group for comparison. “But certainly when we start [the] drug, we see fever curves falling,” she said. “Fever is now not a requirement for people to go on trial, we do see when patients do come in with high fevers, they do [reduce] quite quickly. We have seen people come off ventilators a day after starting therapy. So, in that realm, overall our patients have done very well.”
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16...uggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
 
New reports dispute this. We will see.
The link that dj posted is compelling (I don't have the expertise to judge validity) and supported by sound science. I haven't seen that same level of science from the reports that point to the lab. The first report I read about the potential for it being the lab even said that the chance was greater by other means. I would like to see a paper equal to the one above, pointing to the lab if it is out there...
 
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I posted it already, but scientists don't think the most likely scenario is via the lab route.

The link. you posted mainly provides evidence against the notion that the virus was human-made. That's not the scenario under discussion; the question is could a natural bat virus have escaped from a lab. The authors address this latter possibility, but only under the assumption that the bat virus in the lab was different from the one that eventually emerged in human, therefore requiring some selection steps during passages in cell culture. The authors do not seem to address the possibility that the virus eventually infecting people is identical to one studied in the lab. But I believe that's precisely the point suggested in the paper that the CCP censored. Again, if this is the case, only the Chinese can confirm it. No lab studies can prove it one way or another.

I really don't understand the problem here. If the virus emerged from a bat sold in the wet market, why couldn't that same bat have been studied in a research lab?

In Belgium 7000 staff members of retirement homes were tested: 13% of them had the virus (73% of them were asymptomatic). Also more than 6000 residents were tested: 20% had the virus! (69% of them were asymptomatic)
The results can be found on page 4

This suggests a higher proportion of asymptomatics than the 50% suggested by other studies, more in line with the German Ab study, the Vo study (50 - 75%) and also with a recent study in China reporting that almost 80% of positives were asymptomatic.. But keep in mind that in many studies reporting large numbers of asymptomatics, many of the latter developed symptoms later, after they had tested positive (it's only one case, but I just heard of someone who was asymptomatic for one month after testing positive, then developed persistent symptoms).

It's reported that Belgium plans to test a total of 200,000 people in nursing homes in the next few weeks.

p. 4 of what?
 
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For those interested in a treatment for this virus here's the lasted information that has been reported on for the Gilead drug Remdesivir. This one is from a group of 125 patients from a hospital in Chicago. This one is again showing some hopeful signs.

 
The link. you posted mainly provides evidence against the notion that the virus was human-made. That's not the scenario under discussion; the question is could a natural bat virus have escaped from a lab. The authors address this latter possibility, but only under the assumption that the bat virus in the lab was different from the one that eventually emerged in human, therefore requiring some selection steps during passages in cell culture. The authors do not seem to address the possibility that the virus eventually infecting people is identical to one studied in the lab. But I believe that's precisely the point suggested in the paper that the CCP censored. Again, if this is the case, only the Chinese can confirm it. No lab studies can prove it one way or another.

I really don't understand the problem here. If the virus emerged from a bat sold in the wet market, why couldn't that same bat have been studied in a research lab?



This suggests a higher proportion of asymptomatics than the 50% suggested by other studies, more in line with the German Ab study, the Vo study (50 - 75%) and also with a recent study in China reporting that almost 80% of positives were asymptomatic.. But keep in mind that in many studies reporting large numbers of asymptomatics, many of the latter developed symptoms later, after they had tested positive (it's only one case, but I just heard of someone who was asymptomatic for one month after testing positive, then developed persistent symptoms).

It's reported that Belgium plans to test a total of 200,000 people in nursing homes in the next few weeks.

p. 4 of what?
In my post above stating that I haven't seen the solid science to support the lab hypothesis, I din't consider that the science I want to see does exist, its just being censored.

EDIT: I'll repost dj's link because I think its at least worth a read:
 
The link. you posted mainly provides evidence against the notion that the virus was human-made. That's not the scenario under discussion; the question is could a natural bat virus have escaped from a lab. The authors address this latter possibility, but only under the assumption that the bat virus in the lab was different from the one that eventually emerged in human, therefore requiring some selection steps during passages in cell culture. The authors do not seem to address the possibility that the virus eventually infecting people is identical to one studied in the lab. But I believe that's precisely the point suggested in the paper that the CCP censored. Again, if this is the case, only the Chinese can confirm it. No lab studies can prove it one way or another.

I really don't understand the problem here. If the virus emerged from a bat sold in the wet market, why couldn't that same bat have been studied in a research lab?



This suggests a higher proportion of asymptomatics than the 50% suggested by other studies, more in line with the German Ab study, the Vo study (50 - 75%) and also with a recent study in China reporting that almost 80% of positives were asymptomatic.. But keep in mind that in many studies reporting large numbers of asymptomatics, many of the latter developed symptoms later, after they had tested positive (it's only one case, but I just heard of someone who was asymptomatic for one month after testing positive, then developed persistent symptoms).

It's reported that Belgium plans to test a total of 200,000 people in nursing homes in the next few weeks.

p. 4 of what?
Re-read the part about how it evolved again. It is there, maybe you didn't understand it?
 
Re-read the part about how it evolved again. It is there, maybe you didn't understand it?

You seem to think they favor scenario 2, that the virus jumped from pangolins to humans, and selection occurred in the humans. Maybe they do, but they don't actually state that in their conclusion. They say both scenario 1 and 2 are plausible. So I would hardly say they conclude it is "unlikely" that the epidemic began from a bat virus that escaped from the lab. They acknowledge that not enough bat viruses have been studied to say how close some of them might be to SARS-CoV-2.

But even assuming they favor scenario 2, how do we know the lab wasn't studying pangolins? A Chinese group recently published a study of pangolin coronaviruses, from samples from animals illegally smuggled into the country in the past three years. The paper under discussion also cited some of this work. So we know this animal has been of interest to Chinese scientists studying this virus.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2169-0
 
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Coronavirus almost worldwide now

Of the almost 200 countries across the world, just 15 have no reported cases of COVID-19 as of Friday.
Many of the countries that appear to have escaped the deadly coronavirus pandemic are small islands in the South Pacific, which are geographically hard to reach.
However, some bigger countries, such as North Korea and Turkmenistan, also have no reported cases.

North Korea claims it has not seen any confirmed cases of coronavirus. Source: AAP
“It’s highly unlikely that a country such as North Korea – that borders with China – has zero cases of coronavirus,” specialist in Infectious Diseases at the Australian National University, Associate Professor Sanjaya Senanayake, told Yahoo News Australia.
“Of course, we can only speculate, but it’s likely they are either not reporting the cases they have, or don’t have the means to test for the virus.”


Professor Senanayake said it is possible for some of the smaller, more remote countries in the Pacific to have dodged the virus.
“While their geographical isolation has protected them up until now, their weak healthcare systems and low incomes could make them extremely vulnerable if they are affected. They need to keep testing to ensure they stay safe,” he said.


The 15 countries that have no reported cases of coronavirus:
North Korea claims no coronavirus cases
North Korea has reported no cases of COVID-19 despite its population of 25.5 million.
The already isolated state closed its border with China in January, and refused entry to all foreign visitors.
However, many are skeptical of the country’s claim, due to their high levels of state secrecy, weak healthcare system and lack of capacity for testing.
Turkmenistan and Tajikistan still holding huge events
These central Asian countries claim to have had no coronavirus cases despite not practising strict social distancing.
While other countries have required their residents to stay home, Turkmenistan held a mass cycling rally during the first week of April, and Tajikistan’s national soccer league is still playing.
Turkmenistan’s health statistics are notoriously unreliable; for the past 10 years they have claimed to have nobody living with HIV/Aids.
However, they did close nearly all of their land border crossings in early March, cancelled flights to China at the beginning of February and diverted all international flights from the capital to the city of Turkmenabat in the north-east, where they created a quarantine zone.
In Tajikistan, there have been several mysterious deaths that the government claims were caused by pneumonia.


With a population of 600,000, the Solomon Islands are the largest of the Oceanic states not to have a confirmed coronavirus case. Source: AAP
The Solomon Islands send tests to Australia
With a population of 600,000, the Solomon Islands are the largest of the Oceanic states not to have a confirmed coronavirus case.
Their government has been proactive in putting preventative measures in place.
A state of public emergency was declared on March 25, and they have been sending samples to Australia for testing, with all so far coming back negative.
As of April 16, there are two more people awaiting test results and four people in quarantine.

Concerns about coronavirus is slowing down recovery efforts in areas affected by Cyclone Harold. Source: AAP
Tonga and Vanuatu’s cyclone recovery slowed by coronavirus
There are still no cases in either of these countries after they implemented strict shutdowns on air and water travel from ‘high risk’ countries back in March.
There are fears this is becoming harder to control as concern about the infection is slowing down recovery efforts in the areas affected by Cyclone Harold.
Humanitarian supplies are being delivered from overseas, but are being quarantined before they can be handed out. Many of Tonga’s roads, wharves and food supplies have been damaged.
The Vanuatuan government has said no foreign personnel will be allowed to enter the country to assist with the relief efforts.

Samoa shut down air travel from overseas countries early on, which may have stopped the virus from spreading. Source: AAP
Samoa and Palau see negative test results
Samoa shut down air travel from overseas countries early on, which may have stopped the virus from spreading.
They have sent 12 samples to New Zealand for testing, which have all come back negative.
It’s believed the prime minister’s intention to keep the borders closed was triggered by the recent measles epidemic, which killed more than 80 children.
Palau also remains virus-free, with one suspected test returned as negative.


Tuvalu and Nauru immediately halt travel
It’s perhaps no coincidence that two of the least visited places on earth remain COVID-19 free.
Both tiny islands restricted travel to the area early on during the pandemic, and so far neither have reported any cases.
Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia restrict borders
These small countries all announced immigration restrictions and restrictions from China in very early stages of the virus, which so far appear to have paid off.

Lesotho and Comoros are the only two African countries that haven't recorded a coronavirus case. Source: Getty
Lesotho and Comoros are surrounded by coronavirus
The only two countries in Africa to still have no recorded cases, there’s doubt over whether that means the virus doesn’t exist there.
Lesotho is a landlocked country, surrounded by South Africa, which currently has over 1700 cases.
It’s suspected a lack of testing is the reason there have been no reported cases.
Comoros may have got off the hook, as it’s a small island in the Indian Ocean, with very few visitors.
 
I did not find a link in this thread on the 1st documentary movie on the origin of the CCP virus. Sorry if this is a repeat.
Anyway, it is very interesting. And might make you mad.

This video tries to make the case that the virus was human-made--perhaps intentionally as a means of bioterrorism, though they simply speculate on that. But a lot of evidence they cite is irrelevant or misleading. They point out that many early cases had no association with the wet market. But that is just evidence for human-human transmission, not evidence that the virus didn’t emerge from the market. A researcher is quoted as saying the first confirmed case had no association with the market. But since we know that many cases are asymptomatic, it’s quite possible there was an earlier, asymptotic case that did result from association with the market.

They point out there is very high sequence homology between SARS-CoV-2 and two bat viruses. But the Nature study that Baltimore linked, while noting that, also pointed that there is weaker homology at the critical receptor binding domain area of the spike protein, which is needed for the virus to infect cells. The homology is higher for certain pangolin viruses, which is one piece of evidence those authors cited for the notion that the virus jumped from pangolins to humans. The video cites Shi Zhengli’s work concluding that bat viruses could directly infect humans, without an intermediate host. But this doesn’t establish that the bat virus could have been the progenitor of SARS-CoV-2, as the Nature paper emphasizes. They seem to be missing that one critical link.
 
You seem to think they favor scenario 2, that the virus jumped from pangolins to humans, and selection occurred in the humans. Maybe they do, but they don't actually state that in their conclusion. They say both scenario 1 and 2 are plausible. So I would hardly say they conclude it is "unlikely" that the epidemic began from a bat virus that escaped from the lab. They acknowledge that not enough bat viruses have been studied to say how close some of them might be to SARS-CoV-2.

But even assuming they favor scenario 2, how do we know the lab wasn't studying pangolins? A Chinese group recently published a study of pangolin coronaviruses, from samples from animals illegally smuggled into the country in the past three years. The paper under discussion also cited some of this work. So we know this animal has been of interest to Chinese scientists studying this virus.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2169-0
No, I don't. And you are not accurately portraying what the paper is presenting. I think they listed scenario 1 first for a reason. That involves a jump from bat to intermediate species to humans.

Scenario 1: Intermediate host = Probable
Scenario 2: Human evolution = Possible
Scenario 3: Cell Culture = Nope

Although RaTG13, sampled from a Rhinolophus affinis bat1, is ~96% identical overall to SARS-CoV-2, its spike diverges in the RBD, which suggests that it may not bind efficiently to human ACE27 (Fig. 1a).
Key point. If you propose that humans were infected by the bat virus in the lab (scenario 2), this is your big problem. It is not adapted for human infection, it would have to evolve in the new host. Not likely it would have enough time to do this in a single host given our immune response, so you would need cryptic human to human transmission while this process is happening. Remember, the virus at this point is not good at infecting humans. It would be a lot easier for a virus to 'learn the ropes' in a species that is caged at high density, stressed from travel and environment.
For a precursor virus to acquire both the polybasic cleavage site and mutations in the spike protein suitable for binding to human ACE2, an animal host would probably have to have a high population density (to allow natural selection to proceed efficiently) and an ACE2-encoding gene that is similar to the human ortholog.

Eventually one of the solutions the virus learned was something present in pangolin adapted viruses. That would be a pretty huge coincidence if it only evolved in humans. Not to mention the major problem of how the hotspot moved 20 miles to the market.

Overall, the species barrier between bat and humans is too high for this direct lab exposure scenario to likely occur. An example given in the paper to even support this possibility is MERS, which has a different host and has never managed to evolve sufficiently in its forays in humans to transmit efficiently. So, theoretically possible, but unlikely for a number of reasons.

It is true that the authors really don't make a commentary out of it, but the data paints the picture. The most likely explanation is the market. You can move the goalposts yet again and say, "Maybe the researchers were passaging bat coronaviruses in pangolins". Maybe! This would be the fourth time* this has happened, which is why I haven't discussed the topic other than posting the paper. It is not worth the effort as people rarely change their preconceptions, even faced with preponderance of the evidence.

*Bioweapon --> Cell culture accident --> infected bat in lab--> Infected pangolin in lab.