Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Merckx index]

Which will be the first country, after China, to stop the virus? Would you believe it might be Thailand? They have a population of about 70 million, yet only 187 active cases, 6% of their total cases. This is fewer than for New Zealand, which has less than 10% of the population, and not much more than Iceland, which has about 0.5% of the population. They have one of the lowest rates of both cases (.0042%) and deaths (.00008%) in the world. Their mortality rate, based on confirmed cases, almost all of which are now closed, is 1.95%.

 

[ThePirate81]

View: https://youtu.be/LWsgbgz5euc

 

[Kaptain Kool]

Which will be the first country, after China, to stop the virus? Would you believe it might be Thailand? They have a population of about 70 million, yet only 187 active cases, 6% of their total cases. This is fewer than for New Zealand, which has less than 10% of the population, and not much more than Iceland, which has about 0.5% of the population. They have one of the lowest rates of both cases (.0042%) and deaths (.00008%) in the world. Their mortality rate, based on confirmed cases, almost all of which are now closed, is 1.95%.

I don't think we (Thailand) test that much but instead focus on clusters. But our hospitals were never overburdened and we've had only a few deaths (less than 60). Vietnam has very few cases as well and zero deaths.
The 2019 Global Health Security Index had Thailand 6th best prepared for a pandemic worldwide so maybe it's too be expected. The same index had US #1, though.

I think the key issue going forward will be how to open borders again. For example, SE Asia, East Asia, Australia and New Zealand could initially form a regional block in which COVID-19 is controllable. Once open to Europe or North America, more cases will start coming in again.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I think that you should quote my entire post because I started out by saying that:

"I've wondered, said, and typed similar many times. Admittedly, I have not had to make the sacrifices that many have so its easier for me to protect myself and others, but I am disappointed in many people who aren't willing to sacrifice for others. Some people can't even inconvenience themselves to do something as simple as wearing a mask at the supermarket.

Also, when they open do they expect to have mobs of people? I wonder if they will even have enough customers to make it worth opening.

Hopefully they don't have physical/violent actions in mind to defend their rights. Do they mean their rights to help spread C19? "

Plus, does ruined financially mean that they should no longer respect their fellow human, let a lone follow basic laws?

I wasn’t accusing you of anything.

To the last sentence... those in power crushing business aren't following basic law at least in a Constitutional manner.. and for those that are being crushed, what respect are they being shown by their fellow humans? This can’t only be a one-way street.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Ah, Sweden... To sum it up, what happens there, in my humble opinion is cynical. Let them die, only 1% of those infected even less maybe. Why must 99% suffer the awful fate of not being able to drink a beer with friends in a pub, stay locked in their homes watching Netflix and overeating, suffer the consequences of diminishing incomes (as if Sweden's economy is living in a bubble and not interconnected with the world)? Whatever they tell and whatever scientific reasoning that's exactly the outcome. Just a quick comparison, Czechia and Sweden, same population, one country did what it had to do to limit as much as possible the loss of lives, the other listened to Tegnell. Who did better? One with 7,689 cases with 237 deaths, the other 21,092 cases with 2,586 deaths, guess the correct answer.

Yep, that is the word I would use too. It is one thing to try the herd immunity strategy out in the open and communicate what that would mean. But they are't even really doing that. Given that they are still practicing some degree of social distancing voluntarily, I doubt they are even that close to achieving herd immunity either.

 

[hrotha]

I don't believe Sweden is seriously going for herd immunity. We don't even know for sure that immunity is actually possible at this point. Recovering from other coronaviruses doesn't typically make you immune for long. This must be cynical PR.

 

[jmdirt]

The fatalities among children amount to about zero worldwide. They run much more risk from going to school on any normal day. The risk of infecting relatives, that's another matter, but then the people who keep their children at home out of fear should also refrain from going to their own working place.

Children are resilient, we assume. But specialists think that the teaching efficiency now differs a lot based on the home situation. The ones with parents willing or able to spend time vs. the ones with uninterested parents, parents who are too busy, or parents who are unable to truly help (for example because they are uneducated themselves, speak another language, etc.). Also, not every child has access to a computer or tablet for their e-homework (think of big families for instance). These create differences among pupils that often exacerbate differences that are already there. In time, this is thought to create more learning backlog for children that were already struggling to keep up.

The Boise school district got a device to every student K-12 who needed one, and arranged hot spots for those without internet access. All of your other points about home learning ring true though.

 

[Nomad]

Trillions of dollars in lawsuits being pursued:

Weiterleitungshinweis

Not bioengineered but possibly leaked from the Wuhan lab:

Weiterleitungshinweis

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Doing a little research... the stay at home orders in California do not appear to be legal.

Quarantine is defined as the limitation of freedom of movement of persons or animals that have been exposed to a communicable disease for a period of time equal to the longest usual incubation period of the disease, in such manner as to prevent effective contact with those not so exposed. If the disease is one requiring quarantine of the contacts in addition to isolation of the case, the local health officer shall determine the contacts who are subject to quarantine, specify the place to which they shall be quarantined, and issue instructions accordingly. He shall insure that provisions are made for the medical observation of such contacts as frequently as necessary during the quarantine period.

California Code of Regulations, Title 17 Public Health, Division 1, Chapter 4, Subchapter 1, Article 2, Section 2520

California Health and Safety Code Section 101040, 101085, and 120175, Title 17 California Code of Regulations Section 2501 used in local Health Officers orders also appear to provide no power for the quarantine of the non-sick.

I'm not an attorney but I can't find where the local Health Officer or the Governor has the legal authority or power to do what they have done.

As stated earlier, it's going to be really interesting to see if business owners/employees are arrested for violating stay-at-home orders.

 

[djpbaltimore]

The citizens of CA aren't under 'quarantine', so there is that to think about.

I doubt that the virus was released from the lab in question. The head of the lab is pretty well established. She was instrumental in discovering the origin of SARs. But in the pursuit of a scapegoat, any port in a storm will do.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...wn-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

 

[Chris Gadsden]

The citizens of CA aren't under 'quarantine', so there is that to think about.

Point missed.

It does not appear local or State governments can legally do what they have done. I'll go ahead and guess we will find out shortly.

Does the state have the authority to shut down beaches? That’s the question the cities of Huntington Beach and Dana Point are asking, and they're taking legal action to have a judge decide.

Huntington Beach officials in an emergency meeting Thursday night decided to sue the state of California for taking the surf from Surf City.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/...state-for-taking-surf-from-surf-city/2355126/

 

[GVFTA]

The citizens of CA aren't under 'quarantine', so there is that to think about.

I doubt that the virus was released from the lab in question. The head of the lab is pretty well established. She was instrumental in discovering the origin of SARs.

So your esteemed colleague is so wonderful that it is impossible she was overseeing a lab where an accident may have occurred?

 

[djpbaltimore]

Point missed.

It does not appear local or State governments can legally do what they have done. I'll go ahead and guess we will find out shortly.

Does the state have the authority to shut down beaches? That’s the question the cities of Huntington Beach and Dana Point are asking, and they're taking legal action to have a judge decide.

Huntington Beach officials in an emergency meeting Thursday night decided to sue the state of California for taking the surf from Surf City.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/...state-for-taking-surf-from-surf-city/2355126/

Whether shutting down beaches is legal is a much different proposition than whether quarantines or social distancing is legal. A quarantine is when people are restricted from movement. The only people who have been quarantined were the cruise ship passengers who embarked in Oakland and some of the people who returned from overseas. People who are not sick can be quarantined if they are deemed a close contact of someone who is. People in CA are not under quarantine. Period. Quoting quarantine laws will not help you out.

So your esteemed colleague is so wonderful that it is impossible she was overseeing a lab where an accident may have occurred?

Not impossible. But then the COVID-19 sequence should closely match the sequences of the lab viruses. They don't, so this is not very probable.

When they do the movie, I am guessing they will have a researcher get bit by a bat. Very dramatic and shades of Frankenstein in that plot development.

 

[GVFTA]

Whether shutting down beaches is legal is a much different proposition than whether quarantines or social distancing is legal. A quarantine is when people are restricted from movement. The only people who have been quarantined were the cruise ship passengers who embarked in Oakland and some of the people who returned from overseas. People who are not sick can be quarantined if they are deemed a close contact of someone who is. People in CA are not under quarantine. Period. Quoting quarantine laws will not help you out.
Not impossible. But then the COVID-19 sequence should closely match the sequences of the lab viruses. They don't, so this is not very probable.

Who has seen all of the sequences that the lab in Wuhan was working on?

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Quoting quarantine laws will not help you out.

Uh, what's being quoted are passages from the code cited in the orders. Which makes the following highly questionable:

To the extent necessary, pursuant to Government Code sections 26602 and 41601 and Health and Safety Code section 101029, this order is enforceable by the Sheriff and all Chiefs of Police in the County. The violation of any provision of this Order constitutes an imminent threat to public health and is a crime punishable by up to a $1,000 fine or imprisonment up to 90 days, or both.

As stated twice earlier, it's going to be interesting to see what happens when the arrests start.

 

[Oldermanish]

The citizens of CA aren't under 'quarantine', so there is that to think about.

I doubt that the virus was released from the lab in question. The head of the lab is pretty well established. She was instrumental in discovering the origin of SARs. But in the pursuit of a scapegoat, any port in a storm will do.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...wn-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

Yes and the scapegoating is in full mode in the US. No time to grieve; but plenty of time to blame.

 

[djpbaltimore]

When a country orders 100K new body bags like the USA just did, that kind of behavior is inevitable.

 

[GVFTA]

When a country orders 100K new body bags like the USA just did, that kind of behavior is inevitable.

To replenish stock or fill with new bodies?

 

[GVFTA]

When a country orders 100K new body bags like the USA just did, that kind of behavior is inevitable.

Ok alarmist.

The company's marketing manager, Mike Pryor, said the $5.1 million order has not been paid for or shipped to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) yet.

"I hope to God that they don't need my order and that they cancel it," Pryor told NBC News.

 

[Cookster15]

Which will be the first country, after China, to stop the virus? Would you believe it might be Thailand? They have a population of about 70 million, yet only 187 active cases, 6% of their total cases. This is fewer than for New Zealand, which has less than 10% of the population, and not much more than Iceland, which has about 0.5% of the population. They have one of the lowest rates of both cases (.0042%) and deaths (.00008%) in the world. Their mortality rate, based on confirmed cases, almost all of which are now closed, is 1.95%.

Australia has virtually stopped the virus subject to the easing of restrictions.

Australia’s performance, so far, has been remarkable, recording 6762 infections and 93 deaths or four deaths per million of population. The US death toll adjusted for population is 46 times that of Australia, Britain is 96 times, France is 92 times and Canada is about 20 times.
These are comparable nations with sophisticated health systems. Their fatalities in sheer numbers are 63,861 deaths in the US, 26,771 in Britain, 24,376 in France and 3184 in Canada. In proportionate terms much of the European and American experience is defined by a slow response to the virus, economic restrictions that came too late and needed to be more severe, and higher levels of infections and death rates.

Plus even these figures were hugely boosted by the arrival of a few cruise ships full of infected elderly passengers which were unfortunately, due to bureaucratic bungles, allowed to disembark and spread into the general community. Take these out and the numbers are even more impressive. Australia (and New Zealand) are helped by their relative isolation and lack land borders but the results are still impressive subject to the economic price yet to be paid.

 

[BlueRoads]

Australia has virtually stopped the virus subject to the easing of restrictions.

Australia’s performance, so far, has been remarkable, recording 6762 infections and 93 deaths or four deaths per million of population. The US death toll adjusted for population is 46 times that of Australia, Britain is 96 times, France is 92 times and Canada is about 20 times.
These are comparable nations with sophisticated health systems. Their fatalities in sheer numbers are 63,861 deaths in the US, 26,771 in Britain, 24,376 in France and 3184 in Canada. In proportionate terms much of the European and American experience is defined by a slow response to the virus, economic restrictions that came too late and needed to be more severe, and higher levels of infections and death rates.

Plus even these figures were hugely boosted by the arrival of a few cruise ships full of infected elderly passengers which were unfortunately, due to bureaucratic bungles, allowed to disembark and spread into the general community. Take these out and the numbers are even more impressive. Australia (and New Zealand) are helped by their relative isolation and lack land borders but the results are still impressive subject to the economic price yet to be paid.

That's great news for Australia, but... the difference in geographical conditions between Australia and Europe is indeed quite striking.

 

[Unchained]

Yesterday's addition of the California Governors daily address:
All beaches not closed,all hiking trails not closed. California Covid info website updates on beach and recreation area use protocols.
announced that @65% of child care facilities have been affected to the point of partial to full closure.
announced that funding for people making under @$65,000 a year may qualify for child care subsidy. California government trying to establish, zip code based children care facility locator,for 2 primary reasons for family health and to try and get a system in place as the economy engages people will have safe solutions to the critical questions,can I go back to work without putting my kids in an unknown,risky situation.
also was a semi humorous discussion by school teachers about trying to get 6,7 and 8 year olds to practice social distancing and pandemic important practices.. So honesty prevailed and everyone in the discussion agreed that tiny kids are going to be impossible to teach these behaviors.
If any part of the cure for the Covid caused chaos involves teaching 6 year olds not to grab one another..we are sunk

 

[Cookster15]

That's great news for Australia, but... the difference in geographical conditions between Australia and Europe is indeed quite striking.

You are right and geographical isolation is a big factor. But the results are impressive nonetheless. Take a quick peek at the trends in the worldometer site. Our lockdown commenced on March 21.

Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[Unchained]

California will see dramatic increases in everything, because of testing and reporting, and had an up and down week a deaths and hospital admissions. Numbers keep coming up about vast amounts that have already had the virus either without knowing or symptoms so mild that doctor - hospital intervention wasn't needed

 

[djpbaltimore]

Fortunately, there were not many elderly in this cohort. I think there is also a big discrepancy in how people are defining 'symptoms'.

The testing showed that 97 people (8.5% of those occupying the building) were infected. Most of the cases were women in their 30s and almost all (94 of the 97) worked on the 11th floor of the building, in the call center.
Curiously, unlike many outbreaks reported before and since, virtually all of those infected -- 92% of cases -- had active Covid-19 symptoms at the time of diagnosis.

Investigators then constructed a detailed map of who was and was not infected, demonstrating that the overwhelming majority of cases had worked on one side of the 11th floor in extremely close proximity. Overall, 43% of all workers on the 11th floor developed infection with an even higher proportion among those in the heavily affected wing.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/opin...-korea-study-on-covid-19-sepkowitz/index.html